2011 Federal election polls, demographics, predictions

[Nehkara]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Liberals would never form a coalition to make Layton PM so don't worry about that.

My prediction:

Conservative minority, NDP opposition, Ignatieff gets shot Monday night.
Then the Liberals would prop up Harper for 18 months get a new leader and we'll have another election. By 2013 the NDP will be exposed, the Liberals won't be as ready as they thought and the Conservatives led by MacKay will get their majority.

I'm certain that if the Liberals and NDP have 155+ seats between them, they will form a coalition led by Jack Layton.

[metallicat]

But Harper gets first crack if he wins, no? So how exactly is the Canadian public going to deal with them bringing up a confidence vote immediately, in order to try and gain power themselves?

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Liberals would never form a coalition to make Layton PM so don't worry about that.

My prediction:

Conservative minority, NDP opposition, Ignatieff gets shot Monday night.
Then the Liberals would prop up Harper for 18 months get a new leader and we'll have another election. By 2013 the NDP will be exposed, the Liberals won't be as ready as they thought and the Conservatives led by MacKay will get their majority.

Thats what I figure.

I also believe in terms of numbers, the NDP and Liberals will switch place with the NDP getting about 70 seats and the Libs about 40

The Cons I figure will hit between 145 and a majority.

The X factor is the bloc

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by oilers_fan

But Harper gets first crack if he wins, no? So how exactly is the Canadian public going to deal with them bringing up a confidence vote immediately, in order to try and gain power themselves?

I think that would be a terrible strategy for the Libs and NDP.

I would guarantee another election within 6 months and the Conservatives using that action to propel themselves to a massive majority.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Nehkara

I'm certain that if the Liberals and NDP have 155+ seats between them, they will form a coalition led by Jack Layton.

I would guarantee that if there was a coalition like that you would see a flood of Blue Liberals crossing the floor to the conservatives. There's a large chunk of Liberal's that would not want anything to do with a NDP lead government with the Libs in the backseat.

[Devils'Advocate]

I doubt the opposition will bring up a confidence vote.

The Conservatives still have to pass a budget. That budget, under this scenario, would fail. Since the budget IS a confidence motion, there is no choice but for the GG to declare a new election or call on the other parties to find some way to work together.

[Devils'Advocate]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I would guarantee that if there was a coalition like that you would see a flood of Blue Liberals crossing the floor to the conservatives. There's a large chunk of Liberal's that would not want anything to do with a NDP lead government with the Libs in the backseat.

And I am sure that you would want, NAY - DEMAND!!! that they resign rather than cross the floor, right?

[Calgaryborn]

I wonder who will have the money for another election. One every two years costs a lot of money.

[metallicat]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I think that would be a terrible strategy for the Libs and NDP.

I would guarantee another election within 6 months and the Conservatives using that action to propel themselves to a massive majority.

I keep hearing that each and every time though. If the Libs do this or that, it'll mean a majority for Harper FOR SURE! It hasn't happened yet, and I won't hold my breath.

[Nehkara]

This is a quote from the PDF file from the EKOS poll today:

Using these numbers, and we will reserve the
final forecast until later this evening, we would
see a Conservative minority where the NDP were
within 20 seats and the NDP and the Liberals
combined would have a narrow majority between
them. This means that if there was common will
between the NDP and the Liberals, they would
have both the legal (and according to our recent
polling on the topic) the moral authority to swiftly
dispatch Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party.

[transplant99]

My guess as to the House after the election

CPC-151
NDP- 73
LPC- 57
BQ-26
IND-1

[metallicat]

What is your thinking transplant, when polls are showing things a lot closer than that.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Devils'Advocate

And I am sure that you would want, NAY - DEMAND!!! that they resign rather than cross the floor, right?

Why would I do that, I don't remember stating that opinion at any floor crossing.

And if a coalition is legal under the rules of parliament, then so is floor crossings.

And to me anything that prevents Jack Layton from setting economic policy in this country is a good thing.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by transplant99

My guess as to the House after the election

CPC-151
NDP- 73
LPC- 57
BQ-26
IND-1

Take 20-30 off the CPC, and split them up between the other parties and you're closer to accurate.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by oilers_fan

What is your thinking transplant, when polls are showing things a lot closer than that.

Polls are showing popular vote. I am just cobbling together riding by riding stuff. There are about 50 to close to call with the latest data, some of which is really quite old.

Clearly the NDP are taking away votes from the Liberals and the Bloc, not so much from the Tories. As a result, particularly in about 15 ridings in Ontario and BC, there will be a real "vote split" on the left which will aloow the CPC to come up the middle in a 1/3 of them.

Right now the lowest number possible (using a 5% gap from 1st to 2nd to call it "to close to call") of Tory seats is 131. So in the remaining ridings unless they lose every single one (including the ones where they have the lead in) I am predicting that those ridings will split much like the rest of the results minus a few that are certain to fall one way or the other based on historic performances in those ridings.

Completely and utterly unscientific, but using a multitude of different polls, and their forecasts on the last election and how accurate they were, and the fact that CPC support is alomst identical right now as to where it was when this election was called...thats my best guess.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Nehkara

I'm certain that if the Liberals and NDP have 155+ seats between them, they will form a coalition led by Jack Layton.

Trudeau once said the NDP were an illegitimate party. The entire point of being Liberal is to stomp on the NDP. You heard Ignatieff in the debate "at least we've been in power, you're only good enough for opposition". The Liberals will never form a coalition to make Layton PM, the old guard like Martin and Chretien and Liberal advisers would never allow it and as CaptaiCrunch said, a number of Liberals would cross the floor.

Originally Posted by Devils'Advocate

I doubt the opposition will bring up a confidence vote.

The Conservatives still have to pass a budget. That budget, under this scenario, would fail. Since the budget IS a confidence motion, there is no choice but for the GG to declare a new election or call on the other parties to find some way to work together.

The Conservative will change the budget and negotiate with the Liberals and the Liberals, who have no leader, will have to accept it.

[CaptainCrunch]

So you're Kreskin there caged?

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Take 20-30 off the CPC, and split them up between the other parties and you're closer to accurate.

No thanks. I will stick with what i said.

Its all a bit of a guess by anyone at this point though.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Trudeau once said the NDP were an illegitimate party. The entire point of being Liberal is to stomp on the NDP. You heard Ignatieff in the debate "at least we've been in power, you're only good enough for opposition". The Liberals will never form a coalition to make Layton PM, the old guard like Martin and Chretien and Liberal advisers would never allow it and as CaptaiCrunch said, a number of Liberals would cross the floor.

I remember talking to a heavily involved NDP supporter once just a few years ago, and I asked him about a merger of the left.

The first thing he did was snort in disgust and tell me that the Liberal's weren't a left party, they were a power party which meant that they would take any stance to keep power.

Then he informed me that the NDP role was not to merge with the Liberal's, it was to supplant then destroy the Liberals.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by transplant99

No thanks. I will stick with what i said.

Its all a bit of a guess by anyone at this point though.

I think your numbers are pretty close. NDP looks to pick up 20 seats in Quebec which gets them from 37 to 57 but it's hard to see them picking up another 23 seats everywhere else to get them over 80. Popular vote is impressive but it might be too thinly split across the country. The Conservatives seats projections are much more secure than the NDP seat projections.