2011 Federal election polls, demographics, predictions

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Slava

I actually think that is a very real possibility as well. For a political junkie like me its very exciting! At the same time its terrifying though....

I agree, I took Poli Sci and Canadian History as minor subjects in school, so the whole constitutional debate, polling surge, seat projection thing gets me off. But at the same time I hope to continue gainful employment in Oil and Gas, so I'm quite worried about the result.

[Resolute 14]

Don't worry, Cowboy. An NDP government would have you covered by massively raising EI payouts.

Someone else can figure out how to pay for it though.

[Bownesian]

Originally Posted by Slava

^ Bownesian, that Nanos polling info seems to suggest that its not a plateau at all unless I'm reading it wrong? Looks like nationally the NDP gained from April27 to 28th, and had gains in a number of regions over those two days as well?

I get what people are saying about the track records and all of that, but that seems to be just ignoring the actual data. Those track records are already there to be remembered, the NDP surge is not something that just happened yesterday either. In other words wouldn't that kid of thing start to show in the polling already?

It's a three-day rolling poll so yesterday's poll is 2/3 of today's poll. To illustrate, imagine if the daily sample numbers were:

Monday: 10%
Tuesday: 11%
Wednesday: 12%
Thursday: 13%
Friday: 14%
Saturday 13.5%

Then the 3-day averages would be:
Wednesday: 11% (Average of Monday-Wednesday)
Thursday: 12%
Friday: 13%
Saturday: 13.5%

Saturday would appear to be an increase in support in the three-day tracking poll when it really reflects a decrease in that day's data. The fact that the NDP rise has decelerated may represent a pleateau or a drop. It could also be the result of margin of error or of reaching their potential vote ceiling.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Bownesian

It's a three-day rolling poll so yesterday's poll is 2/3 of today's poll. To illustrate, imagine if the daily sample numbers were:

Monday: 10%
Tuesday: 11%
Wednesday: 12%
Thursday: 13%
Friday: 14%
Saturday 13.5%

Then the 3-day averages would be:
Wednesday: 11% (Average of Monday-Wednesday)
Thursday: 12%
Friday: 13%
Saturday: 13.5%

Saturday would appear to be an increase in support in the three-day tracking poll when it really reflects a decrease in that day's data. The fact that the NDP rise has decelerated may represent a pleateau or a drop. It could also be the result of margin of error or of reaching their potential vote ceiling.

I agree, it was only yesterday where Layton finally had to answer tough questions on his policies and that hit the news cycle. Today's press is even worse, if that has an effect it won't really show in that 3 day average until Sunday. At that point it's pretty much too late to draw conclusions because the election will be Monday.

[kn]

Originally Posted by mykalberta

I find it hard to believe anyone who would vote Conservative would switch and vote NDP - Liberal sure but NDP?

I can see a few reasons why this could happen:

1. Your local CPC candidate is an idiot and you have a stellar NDP candidate.
2. You are in an overwhelming CPC stronghold so don't feel your vote has any impact.
3. Your NDP candidate has shown up and answered questions during the election while the CPC candidate is AWOL.
4. You prefer Layton to Harper.
5. You want the CPC in power but want a strong counterweight in a minority government.
6. If you're not voting CPC, the NDP is favourable to the Liberals in terms of Western presence.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Bownesian

It's a three-day rolling poll so yesterday's poll is 2/3 of today's poll. To illustrate, imagine if the daily sample numbers were:

Monday: 10%
Tuesday: 11%
Wednesday: 12%
Thursday: 13%
Friday: 14%
Saturday 13.5%

Then the 3-day averages would be:
Wednesday: 11% (Average of Monday-Wednesday)
Thursday: 12%
Friday: 13%
Saturday: 13.5%

Saturday would appear to be an increase in support in the three-day tracking poll when it really reflects a decrease in that day's data. The fact that the NDP rise has decelerated may represent a pleateau or a drop. It could also be the result of margin of error or of reaching their potential vote ceiling.

That's possible, but we need to be cautious about those kinds of extrapolations without seeing the daily numbers, because more than one mathematical scenario can account for the same basic results.

Furthermore, the more you break the data down the more actual error you introduce into your sample--so saying "day 3 had slightly worse numbers than day 2" is not the same as saying "the trend continued until day 3 and then plateaued." Rather, we're looking at a new sample with new MOE and new variables (day of the week is a huge variable, for instance. I'm not sure how it plays out in Canada, but for instance Democrats poll better on weekends than they do during the week in the U.S.)

I think it's important to look at the overall trendline, and account for some of the "X" factors that may come into play in the final analysis. We have a weird situation, because the 2 major parties have both run very poor campaigns and have leaders with low favourability, which doesn't usually matter (when voter preferences are entrenched) but can be a huge problem when the numbers start to move.

Honestly, I'd be worried if I were the Tories. And if I were the Liberals, I'd be heading for the bomb shelter. These numbers look almost "Tories-in-1993-esque." The Liberals are going to get annihilated, largely bleeding seats to the NDP--the question is how badly, and we won't know until Monday night.

[Bownesian]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

That's possible, but we need to be cautious about those kinds of extrapolations without seeing the daily numbers, because more than one mathematical scenario can account for the same basic results.

I said as much at the end of my last post.

Nanos' numbers seem to confirm what I was speculating. This is all still within the margin of error but trending better for the Tories:
http://www.nanosresearch.com/electio...29-BallotE.pdf

[transplant99]

Yeah these guys ahve the Tories trending upwards again as well. Also they have historic gains for the NDP.


http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2011/

[Resolute 14]

The really interesting thing about the April 29 Nanos poll is that while it shows the CPC and Liberals both making gains against the NDP, the Bloc are still going downward.

As irrelevant as the Greens pretty much are, it is interesting to see that they are polling anywhere from 1/2 to 1/3 what they got in the 2008 election in every region of the country. That may not be good news for the Conservatives, as I suspect that if the voters abandon the Greens in similar numbers on Monday, most of those votes would be going Liberal or NDP.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The really interesting thing about the April 29 Nanos poll is that while it shows the CPC and Liberals both making gains against the NDP, the Bloc are still going downward.

As irrelevant as the Greens pretty much are, it is interesting to see that they are polling anywhere from 1/2 to 1/3 what they got in the 2008 election in every region of the country. That may not be good news for the Conservatives, as I suspect that if the voters abandon the Greens in similar numbers on Monday, most of those votes would be going Liberal or NDP.

I would expect that having a weekend before the vote is probably the worst thing for the NDP, because most people won't be tuning in and will only hear media sound bites about the NDP platform which most of the mainstream is really questioning now.

Its also two days of sober thought for voters and they might get freaked out that their so called protest vote might dramatically shift the Canadian economy.

People used to talk about strategic voting against the Conservatives, but with the rise in numbers for the NDP and the sharp decline of the Libs you might see a shift in strategic voting to the Cons or the Libs.

Where this election really hurts the Greens is in the pocket book, if they drop in half and lose half of their voter subsidies and their found raising isn't great shakes, you might see a party in real trouble financially.

[Resolute 14]

Threehundredeight has the NDP on the verge of being the opposition today.

Also interseting, is their projection for Laurier-Sainte Marie in Quebec:

Bloc (Duceppe) 37.6
NDP (Laverdiere) 37.2
Lib (Allard) 12.5
Grn (adam) 7.5

Obviously the margin of error on an individual riding would be ridiculously high, but if there is a chance to knock out the Bloc leader, I'll cheer for the NDP in one single case.

[Pierre "Monster" McGuire]

I know for sure I'm voting for the Work Less Party.

[Stranger]

Originally Posted by Pierre "Monster" McGuire

I know for sure I'm voting for the Work Less Party.

Your voting NDP?

[zamler]

Posted this earlier, but the more I hear from Layton, the more this depicts him perfectly.

[Ducay]

NDP's surge in Quebec doesn't surprise me. Its just a socialist party stealing votes from another socialist party. They're basically the same parties except one hates Canada and the other has a mustache.

[HeartsOfFire]

Originally Posted by mykalberta

I still only trust Nanos but even they have the NDP polling higher.
http://www.nanosresearch.com/main.asp

I find it hard to believe anyone who would vote Conservative would switch and vote NDP - Liberal sure but NDP?

My prediction is they started at 16% they are at 31% they will end up with 23% of the vote nation wide.

Jason Kenney is my CPC candidate in my riding. I've got no idea who my NDP candidate is, but I'm voting for them because they are not Jason Kenney and they're not Liberal.

My beef with Jason is that he towed the CPC party line in support of Bill C-32; the ONE THING I give a big enough damn about in federal politics, and he doesn't speak for me.

The NDP does, on the other hand.

Additionally, when my American ex was living with me and trying to land herself a 2 year temporary work permit that would take over after her Visa expired, Jason Kenney et al, the Minister of Immigration, never answered my letters or phone calls when she was encountering difficulties. Moot point now, but his lack of engagement really stuck out to me, especially since he was more than pleased to toot his own horn on Twitter about his trips to 3rd world countries hoping to entice their citizens to come work in/for Canada.

I don't trust the Liberals one lick.

I don't expect the NDP to win a minority, but I'll be damned if I contribute to a possible CPC majority.

[NBC]

Originally Posted by Ducay

NDP's surge in Quebec doesn't surprise me. Its just a socialist party stealing votes from another socialist party. They're basically the same parties except one hates Canada and the other has a mustache.

Really? I thought the Bloc was founded primarily by disgruntled Tories who left the party after the Brian Mulroney debacle.

Anyway, even though the NDP is riding high in QC right now, somehow I just cannot see voters there wholeheartedly abandoning either the natural governing party (Grits) or the seemingly indomitable Bloc. The NDP has no roots or history in the province and Quebec voters are notorious for throwing their support en masse behind certain "causes" prior to Election Day. Pools in Quebec are as they say "swings and roundabouts" and I'm not convinced that their increased level of support there is going to translate into the magical 50 seats that some pollsters are suggesting. That would be a monumental achievement for them, but I cannot see voters completely abandoning both the Liberal Party AND the Bloc to the degree suggested by some.

Polls are a funny thing. Over here (UK) the Liberal Democrats were polling around 30% after the first leadership debate. This groundswell of support did not translate into more representation in Westminster and in fact they lost 5 seats over their 2007 election results.

I'll be amazed if I wake up Tuesday morning to see a 100-seat NDP official opposition and a Bloc Quebecois Party that has lost its official party status as some pundits are suggesting. Very surprised.

[CaptainCrunch]

Great post, but I wonder why all of the T.V. shows on your network suck.

[NBC]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Great post, but I wonder why all of the T.V. shows on your network suck.

Are you referring to me somehow?

[CaptainCrunch]

yes I was making fun of your user name.