2011 Federal election polls, demographics, predictions

[mykalberta]

I still only trust Nanos but even they have the NDP polling higher.
http://www.nanosresearch.com/main.asp

I find it hard to believe anyone who would vote Conservative would switch and vote NDP - Liberal sure but NDP?

My prediction is they started at 16% they are at 31% they will end up with 23% of the vote nation wide.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by mykalberta

I still only trust Nanos but even they have the NDP polling higher.
http://www.nanosresearch.com/main.asp

I find it hard to believe anyone who would vote Conservative would switch and vote NDP - Liberal sure but NDP?

My prediction is they started at 16% they are at 31% they will end up with 23% of the vote nation wide.

The Nanos result is consistent with all of the other polls (i.e. w/in the Margin of Error) except for Ipsos-Reid, and their data is almost two weeks old. All of them show the Liberals collapsing to the low 20s, the Tories in the mid-30s and the NDP at around 30. I think it's a safe bet that voter intentions are in that range currently. The question is how it translates into seats. The NDP face regional disadvantages and disadvantages in terms of GOTV. Both of those could bring their numbers down. I personally think 98 seats (EKOS' projection) is crazy, but I'm basing that only on my own incredulity, not on anything really concrete.

Who said this election would be boring?

[Slava]

If I were a Harper strategist at this point I would be terrified. The NDP surge is proving more and more real and every poll I've read seems to have a sentence that says something along the lines of the NDP showing no sign of a plateau. Some will say that we'll see how Jack does with some intense pressure and things like that, but there are two problems with that:

A) Its really late in the game

B) The CPC has already tried that for the past week....and the numbers are still rising.

[Knut]

Originally Posted by Slava

If I were a Harper strategist at this point I would be terrified. The NDP surge is proving more and more real and every poll I've read seems to have a sentence that says something along the lines of the NDP showing no sign of a plateau. Some will say that we'll see how Jack does with some intense pressure and things like that, but there are two problems with that:

A) Its really late in the game

B) The CPC has already tried that for the past week....and the numbers are still rising.

So how does this impact your vote ? If the NDP is surging, are you going to vote CPC as a counter measure ? While it may not matter in Calgary due to CPC popularity, do you then think Some Blue-liberals in close ridings will start thinking about voting for the CPC as a way to prevent the NDP from forming government ?

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Hesla

So how does this impact your vote ? If the NDP is surging, are you going to vote CPC as a counter measure ? While it may not matter in Calgary due to CPC popularity, do you then think Some Blue-liberals in close ridings will start thinking about voting for the CPC as a way to prevent the NDP from forming government ?

I actually think that will be the biggest problem the NDP will face on election day.

Liberal supporters that are center-right will realize that the Liberals won't win, therefore IMO they'll vote Conservative to keep the NDP from getting into power.

[Shazam]

This isn't the first time the NDP went into an election with strong poll numbers...

[Azure]

Really? I can't recall another time.

Then again, I quickly forget the actual campaign right after it happens.

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by Azure

Really? I can't recall another time.

Then again, I quickly forget the actual campaign right after it happens.

Broadbent's tenure.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Hesla

So how does this impact your vote ? If the NDP is surging, are you going to vote CPC as a counter measure ? While it may not matter in Calgary due to CPC popularity, do you then think Some Blue-liberals in close ridings will start thinking about voting for the CPC as a way to prevent the NDP from forming government ?

I actually don't know. Seriously my vote is meaningless though, save for the $2 that some party will get from it.

As for the Liberals voting I think that this is a problem for the CPC more than anyone else. If its a close riding that the NDP looks strong in there is enough vitriol between the CPC/Lib that those voters pile over to the NDP I think. Thing is that there are no polls shoing the NDP as government. The highest I've seen was EKOS this morning who has them at 109 seats...which would be amazing, but not government.

Originally Posted by Shazam

This isn't the first time the NDP went into an election with strong poll numbers...

Not anywhere near these numbers though...I wouldn't want to have to count on GOTV to deal with this. If the people voting feel strongly enough that they are going to vote for ABC candidate then its hard to counter-act.

How many people here have actually been compelled to vote by GOTV campaigns? I'm guessing its far less than 10% of us, and perhaps not even as high as 3%.

[Shazam]

NDP had 43 seats once. Do you think Lay-ton's going to do better?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Shazam

NDP had 43 seats once. Do you think Lay-ton's going to do better?

I do. I think that they are polling much higher actually, and while I have no idea/information to base this on, I think that the CPC thinks that they are polling way higher as well. Think of it like this:

CPC at approximately 135 seats (I'd predict 134 today)
BQ at 25 seats
Liberals at 54
Greens: 1
Independent: 1

That leaves the NDP with the rest: 92.

Lets say that I'm crazy here. If the CPC is at 140, BQ is at 30 and Liberals are at 60 that still gives the NDP 76 seats.

The reason I say the CPC now recognizes this threat is because they've changed their messaging. If they though that the NDP was in the 40 seat range then they leave their message the same as it was before.

I might revise my seat predictions before Monday, but as of now I'd predict that first scenario. (I have no bloody clue, but its fun to try to predict the future!)

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Slava

I do. I think that they are polling much higher actually, and while I have no idea/information to base this on, I think that the CPC thinks that they are polling way higher as well. Think of it like this:

CPC at approximately 135 seats (I'd predict 134 today)
BQ at 25 seats
Liberals at 54
Greens: 1
Independent: 1

That leaves the NDP with the rest: 92.

Lets say that I'm crazy here. If the CPC is at 140, BQ is at 30 and Liberals are at 60 that still gives the NDP 76 seats.

The reason I say the CPC now recognizes this threat is because they've changed their messaging. If they though that the NDP was in the 40 seat range then they leave their message the same as it was before.

I might revise my seat predictions before Monday, but as of now I'd predict that first scenario. (I have no bloody clue, but its fun to try to predict the future!)

The X-factor, to me, is GOTV. If the NDP underperforms by even two or three percent, that could lose them a lot of competitive seats--and then we could be looking at more like 50-55 seats, with the balance staying in Liberal hands.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

The X-factor, to me, is GOTV. If the NDP underperforms by even two or three percent, that could lose them a lot of competitive seats--and then we could be looking at more like 50-55 seats, with the balance staying in Liberal hands.

Ya, the GOTV is a factor. Thing is there have been many times politically where it simply gets over-run. The advance polls are intriguing as well; traditionally higher turnout means bad news for incumbents...but that was largely before the NDP surge? Who knows.

I've been contacted in GOTV campaigns before, but I'm way more politcally engaged than the average person...so that stands to reason. How many other voters have done so based on a GOTV campaign pestering them to do so though? I would guess not many. Maybe more now than before the Nenshi campaign 6 months ago though?

[Bownesian]

Originally Posted by Slava

If I were a Harper strategist at this point I would be terrified. The NDP surge is proving more and more real and every poll I've read seems to have a sentence that says something along the lines of the NDP showing no sign of a plateau. Some will say that we'll see how Jack does with some intense pressure and things like that, but there are two problems with that:

A) Its really late in the game

B) The CPC has already tried that for the past week....and the numbers are still rising.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/electio...28-BallotE.pdf

I would read Nanos' poll today as the NDP plateauing. Given the steep curve of the previous three days and the three day rolling poll window, a deceleration could mean a plateau or even a drop in support.

The way I read all of this is:

1. The Conservative vote has remained static for the entire election compared to their '08 numbers. The oscillation in their support has pretty much been within the margin of error. My interpretation of this is that the Conservative baseline vote % is pretty high but their maximum vote % is also pretty low. i.e. Conservative voters are entrenched but so is the anti-conservative vote.
2. The poll changes reflect a realignment among the non-conservative parties' vote share. Liberal, Green and Bloc voters become NDP voters everywhere except Ontario.

So, there are several big questions:

1. Will there be any slowing in the NDP momentum over the weekend (will the non-conservative vote continue to concentrate with the NDP)?
2. Similarly, will the John Manley "blue liberal" vote collapse on election day, especially in Toronto and Vancouver?
3. Will there be any changes in vote efficiency as a result of this change - will there be any splits that favour either side?

I think we'll know the answer to #1 by Sunday morning when the 3-day tracking polls reflect the full realization and discussion among the Media and Canadians of the change in the NDP vote.

I think #2 may well happen. Once it becomes apparent that we are facing either an NDP government or Official Opposition, Ontarians may swing to oppose an NDP goverment, given their track record there provincially.

I think that #3 may well be a wash but this is where the election will be decided. I can imagine a scenario in Quebec where the race was Conservative vs. Bloc before becomes a split favourable to the CPC while three-way races in Vancouver and the Maritime Provinces become two-way and the CPC lose seats.

[The Yen Man]

Gotta give NDP props I guess. They are running a way more aggressive ad campaign than the rest it seems. I've seen that stupid Layton ad so many times now.

You know where I stand
You know I'm a fighter
And...I...won't...stop...until...the...job...is... done...

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Slava

I do. I think that they are polling much higher actually, and while I have no idea/information to base this on, I think that the CPC thinks that they are polling way higher as well. Think of it like this:

CPC at approximately 135 seats (I'd predict 134 today)
BQ at 25 seats
Liberals at 54
Greens: 1
Independent: 1

That leaves the NDP with the rest: 92.

Lets say that I'm crazy here. If the CPC is at 140, BQ is at 30 and Liberals are at 60 that still gives the NDP 76 seats.

The reason I say the CPC now recognizes this threat is because they've changed their messaging. If they though that the NDP was in the 40 seat range then they leave their message the same as it was before.

I might revise my seat predictions before Monday, but as of now I'd predict that first scenario. (I have no bloody clue, but its fun to try to predict the future!)

Honestly, I still have trouble with the NDP hitting between 90 and 100 seats. I think the NDP popularity in popular areas will encourage more left vote splitting.

I also think that the moment of sober thought will occur at the booths on monday.

I looked at 308 which has had a very good track record over the last few elections today and they have

Cons 144
Libs 70
NDP 53
Bloc 41

I might concede that the Libs and NDP could switch places which would be a dramatic increase over the last election.

So lets say

Cons 144
NDP 70
Libs 53
Block 41

That would mean from the last election

Cons 147 to 144
Libs 77 to 53
NDP 36 to 70
Bloc 47 to 41

I would feel pretty comfortable along those lines.

[Matty81]

Originally Posted by Bownesian

http://www.nanosresearch.com/electio...28-BallotE.pdf

I would read Nanos' poll today as the NDP plateauing. Given the steep curve of the previous three days and the three day rolling poll window, a deceleration could mean a plateau or even a drop in support.

The way I read all of this is:

1. The Conservative vote has remained static for the entire election compared to their '08 numbers. The oscillation in their support has pretty much been within the margin of error. My interpretation of this is that the Conservative baseline vote % is pretty high but their maximum vote % is also pretty low. i.e. Conservative voters are entrenched but so is the anti-conservative vote.
2. The poll changes reflect a realignment among the non-conservative parties' vote share. Liberal, Green and Bloc voters become NDP voters everywhere except Ontario.

So, there are several big questions:

1. Will there be any slowing in the NDP momentum over the weekend (will the non-conservative vote continue to concentrate with the NDP)?
2. Similarly, will the John Manley "blue liberal" vote collapse on election day, especially in Toronto and Vancouver?
3. Will there be any changes in vote efficiency as a result of this change - will there be any splits that favour either side?

I think we'll know the answer to #1 by Sunday morning when the 3-day tracking polls reflect the full realization and discussion among the Media and Canadians of the change in the NDP vote.

I think #2 may well happen. Once it becomes apparent that we are facing either an NDP government or Official Opposition, Ontarians may swing to oppose an NDP goverment, given their track record there provincially.

I think that #3 may well be a wash but this is where the election will be decided. I can imagine a scenario in Quebec where the race was Conservative vs. Bloc before becomes a split favourable to the CPC while three-way races in Vancouver and the Maritime Provinces become two-way and the CPC lose seats.

The thing that jumped out at me today in the Nanos is that the national numbers looked almost steady but it was massively deceptive because there are some hugely significant vote shifts within the various regions if it is close to accurate. The Conservatives picked up 6% in the prairies, 2% in Quebec and lost 5% in ontario and the liberals lost almost 5% in BC.

The NDP are flatlining nationally but if you look deeper they are down 1% in Quebec the first drop there in a week and up almost 9% in BC.

Ontario, BC and Quebec are all getting tighter with the leading party in every one of those provinces down in the polls.

[Slava]

^ Bownesian, that Nanos polling info seems to suggest that its not a plateau at all unless I'm reading it wrong? Looks like nationally the NDP gained from April27 to 28th, and had gains in a number of regions over those two days as well?

I get what people are saying about the track records and all of that, but that seems to be just ignoring the actual data. Those track records are already there to be remembered, the NDP surge is not something that just happened yesterday either. In other words wouldn't that kid of thing start to show in the polling already?

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Slava

Ya, the GOTV is a factor. Thing is there have been many times politically where it simply gets over-run. The advance polls are intriguing as well; traditionally higher turnout means bad news for incumbents...but that was largely before the NDP surge? Who knows.

I've been contacted in GOTV campaigns before, but I'm way more politcally engaged than the average person...so that stands to reason. How many other voters have done so based on a GOTV campaign pestering them to do so though? I would guess not many. Maybe more now than before the Nenshi campaign 6 months ago though?

I think that the ground game is a non-issue. And so is this Liberal BS about the NDP polling better than their support on election day. That was true in the past when the Liberals represented the strong stable second place party, now I would venture we're more at risk of further Liberal vote collapse as potential NDP or anti-Harper strategic voters actually vote NDP now.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

I think that the ground game is a non-issue. And so is this Liberal BS about the NDP polling better than their support on election day. That was true in the past when the Liberals represented the strong stable second place party, now I would venture we're more at risk of further Liberal vote collapse as potential NDP or anti-Harper strategic voters actually vote NDP now.

I actually think that is a very real possibility as well. For a political junkie like me its very exciting! At the same time its terrifying though....