2011 Canadian Election Thread

[Calgaryborn]

Originally Posted by Matty81

I think pinning the actions of 3 or 4 successive majority liberal governments on pressure from the opposition is a bit rich. I do agree that a national NDP majority would be way too much but I think a Conservative/NDP or Liberal/NDP coalition government is basically the same thing if the dippers are strong.

i don't think it forced the Liberals to be more conservative but, it allowed them to be. The Reform kept the conversation on the debt. If they were instead promising the moon the Liberals would have felt more pressure to spend.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Slava

Well the NDP is polling higher than the other parties consistently. Maybe its in my phrasing.

The CPC seats are inflated by the West and Alberta in particular. In the martimes and Quebec they are behind. In Ontario they are ahead, but not by much. MB and SK are a little better for them obviously, but even there the NDP looks pretty good. Skip to BC and the NDP looks strong there as well.

Will that translate to seats? Who knows.

What polls have the NDP polling "higher" than the CPC consistently?


the only area of the country the CPC is trailing the NDP is in Quebec. They trail the NDP by 9 points and are virtually tied with the Liberals. The Bloc is still ahead of them all though.

In BC they lead the NDP by almost 14 points. The Libs by 19

In Alberta its a whitewash as expected.

In the praries they lead the NDP by 25 pts and the Libs by 30.

In Ontario they lead the NDP by 21 pts and the Libs by 7.

In the Maritimes they lead the NDP by 8 points and trail the Libs by 1.


these guys still have the CPC with a slim majority victory

http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2011/

And 308 has virtually the same government returning

http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

[Matty81]

The Bloc is getting trounced in Quebec - they're 17% behind the NDP in today's Nanos.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/electio...27-BallotE.pdf

[Slava]

Originally Posted by transplant99

What polls have the NDP polling "higher" than the CPC consistently?


the only area of the country the CPC is trailing the NDP is in Quebec. They trail the NDP by 9 points and are virtually tied with the Liberals. The Bloc is still ahead of them all though.

In BC they lead the NDP by almost 14 points. The Libs by 19

In Alberta its a whitewash as expected.

In the praries they lead the NDP by 25 pts and the Libs by 30.

In Ontario they lead the NDP by 21 pts and the Libs by 7.

In the Maritimes they lead the NDP by 8 points and trail the Libs by 1.


these guys still have the CPC with a slim majority victory

http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2011/

And 308 has virtually the same government returning

http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

The 308 site is great, but his methodology is whats causing that seat distribution (rolling 3 day average). He thinks that is most accurate (and it might be?), but basically that doesn't take things into account until its too late at this point.

I can't get onto the other site right now for some reason...but if its the same one that I looked at a few days ago its kind of weird anyway. In Alberta they have the CPC with a minmum of 26/28 seats, but only the current NDP seat as the other maximum. Just strange anomalies like that through their projections.

[VladtheImpaler]

Originally Posted by Matty81

The Bloc is getting trounced in Quebec - they're 17% behind the NDP in today's Nanos.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/electio...27-BallotE.pdf

Stands to reason - Quebec senses a new trough in the offing.

[CaptainCrunch]

What's really sad is that the Liberal's rolled out Jean Chretien last night in York, and he spewed the same old stuff, jets without engines (Complete lie) prisons blah blah blah.

Frankly, this election was really at least initially not about grand new spending on social programs, it was not about national daycare it was about two things. People are still freaked out about the global economic collapse and Canada's recovery from it. It was about another election and the short term prospects of the next government.

Voters don't even seem to care about the Conservative's secretive manner or a questionable contempt of parliament charge. Those items faded and died on the vine as we moved along in this election.

It seems like a wasted election because the Liberal's don't have the leader to make anything stick, they couldn't even make the so called hidden agenda speak stick.

At the time of Ignatieff's return, people kept telling me that Ignatieff would outsmart and out debate Harper at every turn, that he was brilliant, had a vast world view and could bring the Liberals all the way back from the well of Dion. Instead Ignatieff has seemed weak, confused, angry and conflicted. He bought into a terrible platform, and it looks like the appointment of Ignatieff could cost the Liberal's the seats of their so called allstars in Justin Trudeau and Ken Dryden.

In fact Trudeau recently told papers that the Liberals just aren't connecting with Canada anymore.

It looks like the Liberal's and Ignatieff are going to finish behind the seat count that Dion, a horrible leader in his own right lead the Liberals to only a couple of years ago.

I'm not gloating when I state that the Liberal's have been in steady decline since the malignant Jean Chretien gutted the party on his way out. Now the Liberal's are looking at more party debt and a sharp decline in fund raising, they might also be looking at a defection of Liberal members after the election and the loss of their third leader in the last decade.

The NDP have become the interesting story of the election, they are now seeing a late surge that could sharply increase their seat count and push them past the Liberals into official opposition. I don't like their platform and can't get on board with it. But I do like Layton on a personal level as he's fought this election against incredible personal and professional odds. But that doesn't mean that I would ever vote for the man.

Unfortunately for the Conservatives, they fought the only type of campaign that they can fight. If you look at the debate format and the Liberal attack strategies and the NDP attack strategies, the incumbent party is forced into fighting a defensive battle. Its sad, the latest ad by the Conservatives with a very good Stephen Harper speech is something that I wish to see more of.

In short, Canada has a leadership deficit. The Americans for all of their faults do an outstanding job through their university system of building charismatic exciting leaders who can rally people to a cause in quick order. The Obama's Reagans, Kennedy's of the world can attest to that fact. In Canada we really create generic flat bureaucrats who couldn't pull off a call to arms unless they were pumped up by mega pounds of cocaine.

At the end of the day, Layton has done the best job of bridging the charisma gap, but he was also in the easiest position, he never has to back up his promises, he can promise the moon, but if he gets into power he'll either be unable to deliver to his hype or he'll destroy this country economically to do it.

The biggest question now due to polling is if his popular vote will help or hinder his results? Will he be able to convert popularity to seats, or will he split the vote in key battlefronts and allow the Conservatives to slip up the middle?

At the end of the day, the Liberals and Bloc are parties on the edge of destruction, the Conservatives might see a return of the status quo for them or a small improvement. The NDP has stepped into legitimate opposition over the Liberals.

Who would have thought it that at the start of the Ignatieff era that he would literally lead his party to destruction?

Who would have known that a sick, tired and crippled man would propel his party into parliamentary prominence?

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Slava

Andrew Coyne on who he is voting for and why: http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/04/28/a...2;but-by-whom/

As much as I agree with Coyne in a lot of ways, I just don't trust the Liberals to perform any better in the 'democracy' arena than the Conservatives. Before having to eat a big orange turd delivered by the polls this week, Ignatieff and other Liberals were arguing that yes they're policies are left wing and NDP-lite, but they're Liberals, as if that was supposed to count for something. It doesn't, being Liberal doesn't inately make them more deserving of power than anyone else. Whenever questioned on the NDP vs. Liberal question, the arguement back from Ignatieff has been arrogant as if the Canadian people owe them power now that they have been out of it for 5 years. They need to be banished to the periphery this election to lose the attitude and come back with a new leader, new policies, and they will have to argue them on their meritt as better ideas and that would be the reason to elect them. There's nothing special about the party brand. It doesn't mean a lick of anything.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Slava

Well there are polls that I've seen showing as high as 107 seats for the NDP, but people seem to dismiss those right away as outliers (there have been a few,which starts to make me wonder).

I don't buy the attack ads working over the weekend idea. When every news outlet starts election talk with "The Orange Crush" or some clever line about the surge of Jack Layton and the NDP its too late. Strategically the time to launch those attack ads about Layton was a few weeks back....you have to be ahead of these things.

Its not much different than playing the trap for two periods. Once your opponent scores and ties the game its hard to just turn it on again and start playing offence. It might not be impossible, but its an uphill battle.

I have my doubts that the NDP are going to add 70 some odd seats in this election. To do that they need massive breakthroughs everywhere and not just in Ontario and Quebec. The NDP also has to deal with the vote splitting on the left that could allow the Conservatives to slide up the middle.

I agree on the attack ads side of things, I'm not a big fan of them, and we've seen several attack ad blunders from the Liberal's that have actually cut them off at the knees, and your right Slava neither of the main parties focused on the NDP when they should have.

But the Cons have to be split on what to do, right now the NDP are a vote splitting catalyst, and while they're popular it might not lead to seats, especially on Monday when people either don't vote, or they have that moment of sober thought and might vote with their heads instead of their hearts.

At this point we have 4 days left, or for the vapid who want to watch the Royal wedding three days left. I've been watching a lot of news over the last few days (I'm on a months vacation sue me) and all of the majors are now harshly examining the economic impact of the NDP platform. Even the major business communities are coming out in the press and stating that they're not on board with the NDP.

I would expect that things will get tough over the next few days for Jack.

I don't mind him as the official opposition, I think the gut is honest and eager and he wants to help the down trodden and all that. But the guy shouldn't be allowed to run the economy in Canada.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Slava

The 308 site is great, but his methodology is whats causing that seat distribution (rolling 3 day average). He thinks that is most accurate (and it might be?), but basically that doesn't take things into account until its too late at this point.

I can't get onto the other site right now for some reason...but if its the same one that I looked at a few days ago its kind of weird anyway. In Alberta they have the CPC with a minmum of 26/28 seats, but only the current NDP seat as the other maximum. Just strange anomalies like that through their projections.

At 308 in 2008, they projected

CPC 143
Lib 74
NDP 47
Bloc 43
Ind 1

Actuals were, 143, 77, 37, 49, 2

I will admit I have no idea about methodology and whatnot, but he incorporates every poll that comes out, even the obvious outliaers, and is pretty close to actual results.


http://threehundredeight.blogspot.co...n-results.html

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Slava

Andrew Coyne on who he is voting for and why: http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/04/28/a-price-must-be-paid—but-by-whom/

So basically he states that the Conservatives did a decent job of managing the economy during the recession though he wasn't onboard with the whole GM bailout (Liberal NDP requirement)

He doesn't like the Liberal platform, but ignores that.

And wants to punish the Conservatives for being evil, even though he acknowledges that the Liberal's behaved in the same way or worse when they were in power.

Now when I go to the polls on Monday I'll smile because I can image that my vote is cancelling his out.

[crazy_eoj]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

As much as I agree with Coyne in a lot of ways, I just don't trust the Liberals to perform any better in the 'democracy' arena than the Conservatives. Before having to eat a big orange turd delivered by the polls this week, Ignatieff and other Liberals were arguing that yes they're policies are left wing and NDP-lite, but they're Liberals, as if that was supposed to count for something. It doesn't, being Liberal doesn't inately make them more deserving of power than anyone else. Whenever questioned on the NDP vs. Liberal question, the arguement back from Ignatieff has been arrogant as if the Canadian people owe them power now that they have been out of it for 5 years. They need to be banished to the periphery this election to lose the attitude and come back with a new leader, new policies, and they will have to argue them on their meritt as better ideas and that would be the reason to elect them. There's nothing special about the party brand. It doesn't mean a lick of anything.

I'm pretty much totally onside with you Cowboy, and that article was fantastic.

I just don't see any hope in voting for the current incantation of the Liberal party. An appointed leader, a dark history of equal if not worse abuse of democracy and power, and a recent pattern of abusing their responsibilities as the official opposition (not showing up for votes, their commitee behavior). I can't justify voting against the CPC's democratic deficit by voting Liberal, even if I'd like to.

Perhaps this is part of the reason we have seen an NDP surge? However, the NDP policies are so horriffic in an Economic sense a could never even consider them as a viable alternativ.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

Tuition is not skyrocketing, it's still insanely cheap compared to many places in the world and considering the quality of the educatino we should be lucky.

I'm not sure how anyone could argue tuition hasn't been skyrocketing. Go look at how much it cost 20 years ago, 10 years ago, etc. Where are you getting your info from?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

As much as I agree with Coyne in a lot of ways, I just don't trust the Liberals to perform any better in the 'democracy' arena than the Conservatives. Before having to eat a big orange turd delivered by the polls this week, Ignatieff and other Liberals were arguing that yes they're policies are left wing and NDP-lite, but they're Liberals, as if that was supposed to count for something. It doesn't, being Liberal doesn't inately make them more deserving of power than anyone else. Whenever questioned on the NDP vs. Liberal question, the arguement back from Ignatieff has been arrogant as if the Canadian people owe them power now that they have been out of it for 5 years. They need to be banished to the periphery this election to lose the attitude and come back with a new leader, new policies, and they will have to argue them on their meritt as better ideas and that would be the reason to elect them. There's nothing special about the party brand. It doesn't mean a lick of anything.

I really like Andrew Coyne and was actually fully bracing myself for him to say that he was voting for the Conservatives. His summation is a pretty good comparison to how I feel, although I actually trust the CPC a little more on the economy than him (although I'm clearly reading that into things/putting words in his mouth). I whole-heartedly agree with the deomocracy part though: and this is where the dilemma comes for me. If the CPC was better on the economy than the others (which they are, but still not great IMO), an totally ethical then I could vote for them. I just think that they are way less than ethical though....and not great on the economy. The second choices aren't much better.

I still have no idea who I will vote for come Monday. I usually go to the advance polls, but being undecided still I couldn't do it.

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I have my doubts that the NDP are going to add 70 some odd seats in this election. To do that they need massive breakthroughs everywhere and not just in Ontario and Quebec. The NDP also has to deal with the vote splitting on the left that could allow the Conservatives to slide up the middle.

I agree on the attack ads side of things, I'm not a big fan of them, and we've seen several attack ad blunders from the Liberal's that have actually cut them off at the knees, and your right Slava neither of the main parties focused on the NDP when they should have.

But the Cons have to be split on what to do, right now the NDP are a vote splitting catalyst, and while they're popular it might not lead to seats, especially on Monday when people either don't vote, or they have that moment of sober thought and might vote with their heads instead of their hearts.

At this point we have 4 days left, or for the vapid who want to watch the Royal wedding three days left. I've been watching a lot of news over the last few days (I'm on a months vacation sue me) and all of the majors are now harshly examining the economic impact of the NDP platform. Even the major business communities are coming out in the press and stating that they're not on board with the NDP.

I would expect that things will get tough over the next few days for Jack.

I don't mind him as the official opposition, I think the gut is honest and eager and he wants to help the down trodden and all that. But the guy shouldn't be allowed to run the economy in Canada.

I know what you mean about adding 70 seats....its an enormous shift. I wouldn't have thought that they could move from about 18% to start the campaign to about 30% today either. I'm interested to see how this plays out.

The CPC and Liberal GOTV machines are good and will make some difference presumably. Then again some of that vote splitting is going to work in favour of the NDP in some areas and they could gain based on that. At this point the prospects of the CPC majority have got to be dropping though; Sure some of the support is coming from the Liberals, but some of the support for the NDP is also coming from the CPC...it has to be. Pretty clearly a prediction thread is in order at some point over the weekend!

[Ark2]

Originally Posted by Slava

Andrew Coyne on who he is voting for and why: http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/04/28/a...d—but-by-whom/

His arguments don't really seem to lend to the conclusion that he has given.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by transplant99

At 308 in 2008, they projected

CPC 143
Lib 74
NDP 47
Bloc 43
Ind 1

Actuals were, 143, 77, 37, 49, 2

I will admit I have no idea about methodology and whatnot, but he incorporates every poll that comes out, even the obvious outliaers, and is pretty close to actual results.


http://threehundredeight.blogspot.co...n-results.html

Ya, I know and I like 308. These things are not an exact science though and because his is based on using data from a few days ago I just think that the real impact of the NDP surge this week will be shown in his work this weekend?

I really have no idea at all. I should be working right now and instead I'm wasting time reading and arguing about this unnecesary election!

[Calgaryborn]

So if the Conservatives come within say 5 seats of a majority do any of you think we might see a few conservative Liberals defect? I could see a few feeling very uncomfortable about now with their party's direction.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Calgaryborn

So if the Conservatives come within say 5 seats of a majority do any of you think we might see a few conservative Liberals defect? I could see a few feeling very uncomfortable about now with their party's direction.

If that happens, will posters on this forum call them "sluts" and "whores"?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Calgaryborn

So if the Conservatives come within say 5 seats of a majority do any of you think we might see a few conservative Liberals defect? I could see a few feeling very uncomfortable about now with their party's direction.

I imagine that would be unlikely with Harper at the helm?

I hope not though, because I hate floor-crossers....

[V]

Originally Posted by Calgaryborn

So if the Conservatives come within say 5 seats of a majority do any of you think we might see a few conservative Liberals defect? I could see a few feeling very uncomfortable about now with their party's direction.

I hope not. That party is godless enough as it is. Adding some Liberals won't help.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

If that happens, will posters on this forum call them "sluts" and "whores"?

Only if they're hot.