2011 Canadian Election Thread

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Slava

I know...I'm such an idiot for believing this...oh wait, the CPC acknowledges this!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/insi...-with-qmi.html

Acknowledges what exactly? I don't think they dispute they gave the story/photograph to the Sun, that much is clear. What is being questioned, at least as i follow it by you, is the veracity of the photograph indeed being Ignatieff or not. In that case here is the response...

The campaign provided Sun Media with information that had been acquired during Internet research, namely a photograph described as that of Mr. Ignatieff. The campaign made clear to Sun Media that the identity in the photograph could not be verified and that our own efforts to verify the photograph had been exhausted. Sun Media informed us that it would conduct its own verification and due diligence. Sun Media concluded that the identity could not be verified. The Sun made the right decision

Or am I missing something?

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by SebC

I don't presume to know the voting patterns of First Nations in urban areas, but there are millions of Canadians whose votes "don't count". For starters, anyone who votes Green. Second, anyone who votes for a candidate who didn't win. Third, anyone who votes for a candidate who does win wastes a portion of their vote corresponding to the margin by which that candidate won. There are a lot of people who are unrepresented in first past the post.

I'm with you on FPTP, but I would prefer an alternative vote as opposed to PR. I think you still need stability and I would shudder at the thought of a single-issue party having the 8% of the seats needed to be an inflection point on a vote on something completely outside of the one issue they care about.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Acknowledges what exactly? I don't think they dispute they gave the story/photograph to the Sun, that much is clear. What is being questioned, at least as i follow it by you, is the veracity of the photograph indeed being Ignatieff or not. In that case here is the response...

Or am I missing something?

Well they did fire the guy (Muttart) who is at the heart of the whole matter, and also said to the reporter there that they had furnished the photo. In the original letter from the President of Sun News he also indicates the same.

I know, I know.....I linked a CBC report here so you guys can all disregard this. Problem is that the President of Sun News states that they are small 'c' conservatives, and the guy in charge of the TV network is a former Harper staffer...so you at least have to give some credibility to their allegations?

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Slava

Well they did fire the guy (Muttart) who is at the heart of the whole matter, and also said to the reporter there that they had furnished the photo. In the original letter from the President of Sun News he also indicates the same.

I know, I know.....I linked a CBC report here so you guys can all disregard this. Problem is that the President of Sun News states that they are small 'c' conservatives, and the guy in charge of the TV network is a former Harper staffer...so you at least have to give some credibility to their allegations?

Where there's smoke there's fire. Problem for me is that I'm willing to look past dirty tricks and not vote NDP, because I personally don't want to take a hit for $100,000s that I would under an NDP government.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by crazy_eoj

Obviously their votes were counted, otherwise we wouldn't know who won.

Trying to paint this as being unprepresented is patently false.

In our democracy, everyone is represented by their vote. One person, one vote.

The mechanics of forming government is open to millions of hairsplitting arguments but pretending their votes are not counted is silly.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equivocation

(A vote "not counting" does not having the same meaning as a vote "not being counted".)

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Slava

Well they did fire the guy (Muttart) who is at the heart of the whole matter, and also said to the reporter there that they had furnished the photo. In the original letter from the President of Sun News he also indicates the same.

I know, I know.....I linked a CBC report here so you guys can all disregard this. Problem is that the President of Sun News states that they are small 'c' conservatives, and the guy in charge of the TV network is a former Harper staffer...so you at least have to give some credibility to their allegations?

how is this a problem? Im just not understanding where you are going with this I guess. Its been well established, and for a long time, that the Sun chain is a conservative paper, always has been AFAIK.

As for the CBC thing, I have no idea what you mean there either...the CBC is a news agency like any other, they report what they find to be news. Nothing to be dismissed as far as I can tell. They are left leaning without question, but that doesn't mean they dont report news.

I guess i am just out of it today because I am not following along on several things going on around me as well. Damn 10 PM start for hockey games!

[Slava]

Originally Posted by transplant99

how is this a problem? Im just not understanding where you are going with this I guess. Its been well established, and for a long time, that the Sun chain is a conservative paper, always has been AFAIK.

As for the CBC thing, I have no idea what you mean there either...the CBC is a news agency like any other, they report what they find to be news. Nothing to be dismissed as far as I can tell. They are left leaning without question, but that doesn't mean they dont report news.

I guess i am just out of it today because I am not following along on several things going on around me as well. Damn 10 PM start for hockey games!

Well being a sports fan in the East is probably the worst place, just becaues of the time changes and late starts on the West coast!

All I mean is that people have discredited the CBC as being some bastion of biased reporting in favour of the Liberals/NDP. The fact that this doesn't involve them does lend some credibility as the Sun would traditionally be more supportive of the CPC.

[crazy_eoj]

Originally Posted by SebC

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equivocation

(A vote "not counting" does not having the same meaning as a vote "not being counted".)

Another semantical argument.

Their votes are counted exactly the same way as anyone else. Ignoring their representation does not mean they are not represented.

[Azure]

Well I hope the stupid support for the NDP dies off before the election.

Sheesh. Even the markets are noticing it.

[Slava]

http://hilltimes.com/dailyupdate/vie...ays_04-27-2011

Wow. If this is true and actually holds its going to be an enormous shift. The CPC should be really concerned...one poll you can dismiss, two polls maybe they're both outliers. The polls all seem to be going in this direction though? I don't know about the 108 seats mentioned partway through, but there are some common themes:

-The BQ and Liberals are about to be destroyed. That is simply amazing and I don't think that anyone would've predicted thata month ago? Definitely no one would've predicted that they would be destroyed by the NDP!

- The CPC could lose as many as 10 seats. Even a week and a half ago I don't think anyone saw that coming?

Unnecessary election indeed. Maybe Jack knew what he was doing afterall....hard to argue with the results if this continues.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Slava

http://hilltimes.com/dailyupdate/vie...ays_04-27-2011

Wow. If this is true and actually holds its going to be an enormous shift. The CPC should be really concerned...one poll you can dismiss, two polls maybe they're both outliers. The polls all seem to be going in this direction though? I don't know about the 108 seats mentioned partway through, but there are some common themes:

-The BQ and Liberals are about to be destroyed. That is simply amazing and I don't think that anyone would've predicted thata month ago? Definitely no one would've predicted that they would be destroyed by the NDP!

- The CPC could lose as many as 10 seats. Even a week and a half ago I don't think anyone saw that coming?

Unnecessary election indeed. Maybe Jack knew what he was doing afterall....hard to argue with the results if this continues.

I've been talking about this over with my colleagues at work. I wonder if given a choice between being the junior partner in an NDP/Bloc coalition and the junior partner with the Conservatives, the Libs might just swallow 20 years of rhetoric and posturing.

Both parties are really substantially centre-right, and would actually have common ground on virtually everything. The vast breadth of the Liberal base that remains would never, ever go over to the NDP.

I don't want to jump the gun here, but we might be seeing a very substantial realignment of Canadian democracy here.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by peter12

I've been talking about this over with my colleagues at work. I wonder if given a choice between being the junior partner in an NDP/Bloc coalition and the junior partner with the Conservatives, the Libs might just swallow 20 years of rhetoric and posturing.

Both parties are really substantially centre-right, and would actually have common ground on virtually everything. The vast breadth of the Liberal base that remains would never, ever go over to the NDP.

I don't want to jump the gun here, but we might be seeing a very substantial realignment of Canadian democracy here.

I agree...and it still could be jumping the gun. It is interesting though!

It puts voters like me and a lot of centrists in the political wilderness if it happens. It means that the NDP/Lib would be pretty far left and then a huge gap (where I actually think most voters are) then the CPC.

I'm torn on whether the support for the NDP holds; one would expect it to drop come Monday by 5-7% at least. Then again every news channel leads with the NDP surge and how great Jack Layton is doing....that is pretty powerful in terms of convincing the undecideds I would think?

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Slava

I agree...and it still could be jumping the gun. It is interesting though!

It puts voters like me and a lot of centrists in the political wilderness if it happens. It means that the NDP/Lib would be pretty far left and then a huge gap (where I actually think most voters are) then the CPC.

I'm torn on whether the support for the NDP holds; one would expect it to drop come Monday by 5-7% at least. Then again every news channel leads with the NDP surge and how great Jack Layton is doing....that is pretty powerful in terms of convincing the undecideds I would think?

The Liberal and Conservative GOTV machines are infinitely more powerful than the Dippers in these swing ridings, I would think. Basically, I would guess that this massive surge in support was not foreseen by the NDP. It's just too bizarre. Polls are one thing, but they mean nothing until the votes are counted.

Really though, this country would honestly be destroyed with Layton as PM. Can you imagine? I think an intriguing possibility is that the Conservatives/Liberals get together like the British Tories and Lib Dems did in the last UK General Election. The problem is the mutual antagonism that goes back at least 2 generations.

[starseed]

Hasn't Forum Research always had higher numbers for the NDP than most other pollsters?

I still get the feeling that we are looking at a conservative majority. They are looking at exactly the same numbers, with the only change being how the left vote will be further split. I would think that the conservatives are not going to lose many votes, and that will translate into more victories in close ridings. Most importantly, the conservatives are looking at better numbers than before in Ontario.

The 'Orange Wave' is going to be largely moot, and the government is only going to end up going further right... which is ironic.

[WilsonFourTwo]

Originally Posted by Slava

Unnecessary election indeed. Maybe Jack knew what he was doing afterall....hard to argue with the results if this continues.

I'm just gonna throw this out there, but I went through the NDP Platform last night and was very surprised. It's a little more focused and polished than I normally expect. I don't necessarily believe in everything (the budget numbers, for example), but it's clear that the NDP were very ready for this race.

Credit where it's due.....

[starseed]

Originally Posted by peter12

The Liberal and Conservative GOTV machines are infinitely more powerful than the Dippers in these swing ridings, I would think. Basically, I would guess that this massive surge in support was not foreseen by the NDP. It's just too bizarre. Polls are one thing, but they mean nothing until the votes are counted.

Really though, this country would honestly be destroyed with Layton as PM. Can you imagine? I think an intriguing possibility is that the Conservatives/Liberals get together like the British Tories and Lib Dems did in the last UK General Election. The problem is the mutual antagonism that goes back at least 2 generations.

That could happen... the Liberals would see a shift to the left as disastrous for them, so they may see it as necessary to claim the centre. I think the most likely option for the Liberals, is just to quietly sit back and prop up the conservatives without being too vocal about it.

[Resolute 14]

Forum's latest poll hasn't been added yet, but the trend of the NDP rising is definitely continuing, as shown on this table:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion...election,_2011

Nanos has the NDP ten points back of the Conservatives, and six up on the Liberals. In just under two weeks, the Libs have lost 8 points, the NDP is up 10, the Bloc is down two (which will translate to a large number provincially), and the Conservatives stagnant to slightly lower.

Definitely made a moribund election rather interesting.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by starseed

That could happen... the Liberals would see a shift to the left as disastrous for them, so they may see it as necessary to claim the centre. I think the most likely option for the Liberals, is just to quietly sit back and prop up the conservatives without being too vocal about it.

If the Liberals wind up in 3rd place, they've already gone way past the disaster point. 4 leaders in 7 years, the loss of their two remaining bases of support (Toronto and Montreal) mean that the LPC has some serious considerations regarding its future.

The CPC meanwhile can only be invigorated by a defeat to the socialists in this election.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by starseed

Hasn't Forum Research always had higher numbers for the NDP than most other pollsters?

.

In general, the NDP typically poll higher than what they actually get on election day. A lot of people say they support them, but when push comes to shove, they end up voting for the Liberals.

This strategy could change now with the NDP surge into a possible 2nd place though. In fact, some Liberals might end up voting strategically for them or the Conservatives.

[Ark2]

If Layton becomes PM, then I'm moving to the US.