2011 Blue Jays Season Thread

[koop]

Nice. When Patterson swung at that I was shaking my head, that was way out of the zone, I can't believe he got a homer there.

[flames_fan_down_under]

And the unlikeliest of people just went yard too...

[puckluck]

Rivera finally does something positive.

[Ziggy Lidstrom]

Drabek with a nice performance. big win. its a statement to how strong our div is.

Here is an interesting article. very good analysis and ensuing discussion re: Jose Bautista's continued play as evidence of his emergence as top 3 if not top hitter the AL and even around Fat Albert's numbers.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ter-in-the-al/

as to the many thanks, i agree with many of your points.

i even thanked moon. Yet I then also thanked FL for his augmentation of moon's prior point. Both good points... Then the following thanks were for good contributions.

I like this jays team despite the defects. Number 2 hitter with that obp is cause for concern, considering the other divisional comparisons followed by the league comparisons. However, I'm not expecting this team to win 90. There has been too much turnover for this squad, which albeit is good for the farm yet transitional for the big club.

to me there are a few reasons why this team struggles beside the obvious statistical matter of fact and when you have Aaron hill injuring his hammy again, he could have turned the corner a game before that. The other reasons are the starting crew, the pen and the offense are rarely getting into rhythm and harmony. The starters haven't gotten deep enough consistently, the pen has lacked certain players-which are slowly returning, and the offense is suffering through a bad month. If this continues they win 63 games, and if they rebound and finish towards comparatively competitive levels, with other teams in our division regressing slightly, they win 84. I am not concerned since I agree with the Blue Jay philosophy. To me this team, without significant upgrades, will not contend as planned. We need an infield to compete with NY, TBay, Boston. Jays' doesn't match up. Add the other dimensions of positive and negative attributes then

I see the returns of Frank Franc and Morrow as being the tonic this team needs to return to a winning percentage slightly improved from the one we have. Hill as I stated earlier is a real shame that he can't stay healthy. He's going to be released. Perhaps he is trying to seal his ticket out of town, perhaps not, I liked that guy and he was all we have to remind us that we didn't draft Tulo. Sorry had to do it...



But How about the planned playoff changes? and Timmy two time Cy 'n Mark I play in NY not texas Texiera saying they're opposed. Saying, the cream rises...tradition...money and were human beings... 7 days off too many...Bochy was on the record semi Selig... Im with the league.

big win jays.

and koop i was outta thanks for your contributions as well, but you know.

[zukes]

Originally Posted by Ziggy Lidstrom

Hill as I stated earlier is a real shame that he can't stay healthy. He's going to be released. Perhaps he is trying to seal his ticket out of town, perhaps not, I liked that guy and he was all we have to remind us that we didn't draft Tulo. Sorry had to do it...

Too bad you are wrong twice here. 1) No way you release a player with that friendly of a contract, especially with the team options. 2) Hill was not who the Jays took ahead of Tulo, Ricky Romero was.

[Gozer]

Originally Posted by zukes

Too bad you are wrong twice here. 1) No way you release a player with that friendly of a contract, especially with the team options. 2) Hill was not who the Jays took ahead of Tulo, Ricky Romero was.

1) I assume Ziggy is saying that Hill's options will not be picked up and he will be a free agent. If Ziggy meant released then I have no defense for him.

2) Tulo wasn't drafted by JP because Adams and Hill were the middle-infield of the future.
I think Hill was the projected SS of the two too.

Ant has inferred that he wanted the best player available that draft (presumably Troy) and - in general - drafting based on need is an organizational flaw.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Gozer

1) I assume Ziggy is saying that Hill's options will not be picked up and he will be a free agent. If Ziggy meant released then I have no defense for him.

2) Tulo wasn't drafted by JP because Adams and Hill were the middle-infield of the future.
I think Hill was the projected SS of the two too.

Ant has inferred that he wanted the best player available that draft (presumably Troy) and - in general - drafting based on need is an organizational flaw.

Thought, AA has already declined Hills Options....

As for the draft...

I agree JP was most likely picking an area of need... which is a huge mistake. As for the Seleciton of Ricky Romero vs. Troy.. It has turned out okay for the Jays....

AA was on the Sportsnet broadcast this week and he said his strategy is to take the best player available in terms of the June draft. To take an area of need on a player years (4-5) away is a mistake.

[Gozer]

Originally Posted by flambers

Thought, AA has already declined Hills Options....

It's a weird contract with multiple options for different extensions.

[...]12:$8M club option, 13:$8M club option, 14:$10M club option
club may [but did not] decide to exercise all 3 options before 2011 season
after 2011 season, club may exercise only 2012 and 2013 options

-Cot's

[JayP]

Originally Posted by Gozer

#2 hitter with an OBP of 235.

Farrell either has to stop sounding analytical or needs to start acting like it.

I'll never understand how a manager thinks that a guy with an OBP that poor this year and a career OBP of .292 is worthy of a #1 or #2 spot in the order. Speed is nice, but it's a complimentary skill not a primary skill and baseball has to start treating it as such. It's hard to be productive on the base paths when you're not on base.

I don't get why the Jays need speed at the top of their line-up anyways. With a huge power/low average guy like Bautista as your clean-up man simply getting on base and not getting in scoring position should be the primary goal. You get driven in by homers just the same whether you're on first, second, or third base.

[secol]

Originally Posted by JayP

I'll never understand how a manager thinks that a guy with an OBP that poor this year and a career OBP of .292 is worthy of a #1 or #2 spot in the order. Speed is nice, but it's a complimentary skill not a primary skill and baseball has to start treating it as such. It's hard to be productive on the base paths when you're not on base.

I don't get why the Jays need speed at the top of their line-up anyways. With a huge power/low average guy like Bautista as your clean-up man simply getting on base and not getting in scoring position should be the primary goal. You get driven in by homers just the same whether you're on first, second, or third base.

speed on the basepaths mean more fastballs from the pitcher to give the catcher a better chance to throw the runner out. and we all know what bautista does with fastballs

[Gozer]

Originally Posted by secol

speed on the basepaths mean more fastballs from the pitcher to give the catcher a better chance to throw the runner out. and we all know what bautista does with fastballs

Statistics do not support the argument that 'speed on the basepaths will disrupt the pitcher.'

In fact, the data suggests that it ######s the batter moreso.

[secol]

i don't know about disrupting since i've never seen the stats, but with regards to fastballs and bautista i'm pretty sure i'm on the right track

[Sylvanfan]

Unless people behind Bautista start hitting...teams are going to try and pitch around him. If Bautista's up there with guys on base, than teams maybe start worrying about putting too many runners on base and he'll see something to hit.

Although..the Jays really do lack good on base guys in the lineup in general. It's a weakness that they'll likely address in time.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by secol

i don't know about disrupting since i've never seen the stats, but with regards to fastballs and bautista i'm pretty sure i'm on the right track

Even if you're right about fastballs, since it's proven that "disruption" has zero impact on a given hitters numbers at the plate then who cares what type of pitches he gets? A well placed fastball is still harder to hit than a hanging breaking ball.

And while Bautista is a great fastball hitter (3rd in league last year according to www.fangraphs.com), he's still a very good hitter against sliders (5th in the league) and curveballs (T-5th). So getting more fastballs shouldn't really have a big effect on Bautista's production.

[oxygen]

Originally Posted by JayP

I'll never understand how a manager thinks that a guy with an OBP that poor this year and a career OBP of .292 is worthy of a #1 or #2 spot in the order. Speed is nice, but it's a complimentary skill not a primary skill and baseball has to start treating it as such. It's hard to be productive on the base paths when you're not on base.

I don't get why the Jays need speed at the top of their line-up anyways. With a huge power/low average guy like Bautista as your clean-up man simply getting on base and not getting in scoring position should be the primary goal. You get driven in by homers just the same whether you're on first, second, or third base.

I agree, I don't think Bautista has hit a home run this year with a runner on base. He has 8 home runs, but only 11 RBIs. Put someone that can get on base consistently before him.

[Ziggy Lidstrom]

Originally Posted by zukes

Too bad you are wrong twice here. 1) No way you release a player with that friendly of a contract, especially with the team options. 2) Hill was not who the Jays took ahead of Tulo, Ricky Romero was.

I would have thanked you for engaging and furthering the discussion, but you did a drive by critique.

The jays have declined most of his option years and have team options for the 2012 season. He is looking like he will be released after 2012 if not traded first. And it was as Goze stated that JP had drafted college position players in Russ Adams and Aaron Hill the 3 years before the RR TT draft.

So thanks for coming out buddy. Sometimes I guess I take for granted the assumed consensus on information around here. My bad...

[Ziggy Lidstrom]

Originally Posted by oxygen

I agree, I don't think Bautista has hit a home run this year with a runner on base. He has 8 home runs, but only 11 RBIs. Put someone that can get on base consistently before him.

He has one homerun that isn't a solo shot. It was a 3 run shot in Sea. But yeah, it's tough so far this year. We're with you.

http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxsc...?gid=310413112

[Gozer]

Originally Posted by Ziggy Lidstrom

The jays have declined most of his option years and have team options for the 2012 season.

I doubt Hill's options are picked up unless he is traded this year and NewTeam does.

I would be happy to re-sign him after refusing the options, but I think Hill might be a little sour about taking a pay-cut from a team-friendly deal.

But he will not be a Type-A free agent (because of last year) and would need a big season to be Type B.
I think trading him at this deadline is the best idea.

[koop]

Anyone know what the deal is with Posednik? Is he a long way from recovering from his foot injury? and what's the story on him in general? Just looking at his stats he seems like a guy who may be a better fit at the top of the lineup as opposed to Patterson..... but I'll admit I don't know a ton about him.

[koop]

4 pitch walk with the bases loaded.... that's brutal.