2011 Federal election polls, demographics, predictions

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Transfer payments are different than equalization.

That's not entirely accurate; there are four types of transfer payments, equalization being one of them.

The Government of Canada provides significant financial support to provincial and territorial governments on an ongoing basis to assist them in the provision of programs and services. There are four main transfer programs: the Canada Health Transfer (CHT), the Canada Social Transfer (CST), Equalization and Territorial Formula Financing (TFF).

http://www.fin.gc.ca/access/fedprov-eng.asp

[burn_this_city]

Alberta doesnt make health and education transfers to the other provinces. That money flows from the federal government down to the provinces. I dont believe our equalization payments are earmarked for anything specific. Regardless we're arguing semantics over what the definition of transfer payments means.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Alberta doesnt make health and education transfers to the other provinces. That money flows from the federal government down to the provinces. I dont believe our equalization payments are earmarked for anything specific.

Albertans contribute tax revenue to the federal government, a portion of which is given to the governments of other provinces in the form of the four transfer payments described in the post above (including the Canada Health Transfer).

Do you think Equalization works differently, that the money comes from the Alberta Provincial government or something?

[burn_this_city]

No, what you outlined was my understanding of how it worked. It not a direct payment from one province to the others, it goes through the treasury.

[Byrns]

So much for keeping this thread on topic...

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by Byrns

So much for keeping this thread on topic...

Agreed, the other thread has spilled into this one.

[HOOT]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

I guarantee you that the money spent by the federal government on elections has no effect on provincial funding levels for hospitals and schools.

Okay maybe a bad example but still money that can be spent on something else. It seems like the only answer I can get from anyone, not just CP, is that they spend money on other stupid stuff so why is this any different. That's pretty weak and if we are allowing our government to spend so wasteful why aren't we voting in someone who will stop it?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by HOOT

Okay maybe a bad example but still money that can be spent on something else. It seems like the only answer I can get from anyone, not just CP, is that they spend money on other stupid stuff so why is this any different. That's pretty weak and if we are allowing our government to spend so wasteful why aren't we voting in someone who will stop it?

No, the answer that has been given numerous times in this thread is that (A) its not that much money in the grand scheme and more importantly (B) its our democracy and its worth it.

[evman150]

People that bitch and moan about money "wasted" on elections need to go give the middle east/Africa/wherever a go...see how you like it where that money isn't wasted.

[CaptainCrunch]

Nanos poll shows that Harpers leadership rating jumps 28 points after the debates, on the issue of trust Harper shows the biggest increase up 5.5, on competancy he also had the largest increase 12.9, on the question of vision Harper also had the biggest jump at 9.5.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNew...e=election2011

we should see in the next couple of days if this effects the election polls.

But Harper looks like he gained significantly due to his performance in the debates.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by evman150

People that bitch and moan about money "wasted" on elections need to go give the middle east/Africa/wherever a go...see how you like it where that money isn't wasted.

Well, why didn't you just throw Hitler and Stalin into your post for how useless it was?

This election is a complete waste of time and money, regardless of the fact that tin pot dictatorships exist elsewhere.


Anyway, Nanos' April 14 poll had the Bloc gaining 1.5 points directly off the back of the Liberals with the Conservatives and NDP holding. I'm guessing that indicates Duceppe won the French debate, as usual?

[transplant99]

308 has the CPC a couple seats short of a majority...likely to be a bit more come the end of the weekend when a couple new polls are added in.

The Conservatives have picked up 0.1 points in the projection are are now at 39%. They have been between 38.6% and 39% since March 29th, demonstrating just how little the numbers have moved in this campaign. They also pick up one seat and are back to 152.

The Liberals are unchanged at 28.2%, but small drops in Ontario and Quebec mean they are down to 73 seats.

The New Democrats are unchanged at 16.8% and 33 seats, while the Bloc Québécois is up 0.1 points to 8.9% and one seat to 50. The Greens are unchanged at 6% support.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by transplant99

308 has the CPC a couple seats short of a majority...likely to be a bit more come the end of the weekend when a couple new polls are added in.

I really like 308

If the polling results were accurate I wonder why Ignatieff who is a stronger leader is leveling out to less seats then Dion won.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Nanos' April 14 poll had the Bloc gaining 1.5 points directly off the back of the Liberals with the Conservatives and NDP holding. I'm guessing that indicates Duceppe won the French debate, as usual?

There's never any doubt that Duceppe was going to win the french debate, even thought the second debate had some more awesome sound bites, its really a rehash of the English election.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I really like 308

If the polling results were accurate I wonder why Ignatieff who is a stronger leader is leveling out to less seats then Dion won.

I think its because of the probable split with the NDP. If the NDP gets hammered then it works for the Liberals, but if not then they are fighting both the left and right....which could mean a huge, huge loss for the Liberals.

[Cheese]

Originally Posted by Slava

I think its because of the probable split with the NDP. If the NDP gets hammered then it works for the Liberals, but if not then they are fighting both the left and right....which could mean a huge, huge loss for the Liberals.

Exactly, The NDP is making big gains in Quebec and other areas at the expense of the Liberals.
The CBC panel was talking about this exact point last night.

Of course we still have 2 weeks to go, plenty of time for huge gaffes and money laundering schemes to come out yet.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Slava

I think its because of the probable split with the NDP. If the NDP gets hammered then it works for the Liberals, but if not then they are fighting both the left and right....which could mean a huge, huge loss for the Liberals.

Yeah, you look at the expected seat count in 308. After the last election
Conservatives 143 seats Liberals 77 seats, NDP 36 seats, Bloq 47 seats
Based on todays numbers

Conservatives 152 Libs 73, NDP 33 Bloq 50 seats

So in that poll the Cons are gaining 9, the Liberals are losing 4, the NDP are losing 3 and the Bloq is gaining 3.

If you went by your theory, the Right has gained 9 seats, the Left has lost 7 seats, the bloq has gained 3 seats. God I hope my math is right.

To me it almost seems to indicate, not a fight for the left vote, but that the 2 left parties have missed the key messages and votes have either moved to the Right, or the seps.

To some extent this has to be demoralizing to the Liberals, they replaced a weak leader with a strong leader and over halfway through they are polling to a worse position.

I don't think that this is bothering Layton too much, I don't think that the NDP is a really good alternative party during economic troubles.

[Slava]

^ Thats the simplistic view though (about the left/right split). Its explainable in that there are some swing ridings where if the NDP/Liberals are strong, but don't win it splits votes from the other opposition party, and causes a CPC win. Think of it similar to when the Canadian Alliance/CPC were competing against each other and Liberals would win the seats.

[Resolute 14]

Ekos, which has always given the Conservatives the lowest numbers of all the regular polling firms, reports that the Tories have increased their lead from 5 points to 7.5 pre- and post-debate:

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-conte...il_15_2011.pdf

They note that the gains are primarily in BC, and that Ontario remains a dead heat in their view. I'm not sure how much I trust Ekos' numbers, given they consistently poll the Greens at twice the support anyone else does, and somehow 2.1% of decided voters intend to vote for one of the little parties.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Ekos, which has always given the Conservatives the lowest numbers of all the regular polling firms, reports that the Tories have increased their lead from 5 points to 7.5 pre- and post-debate:

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-conte...il_15_2011.pdf

They note that the gains are primarily in BC, and that Ontario remains a dead heat in their view. I'm not sure how much I trust Ekos' numbers, given they consistently poll the Greens at twice the support anyone else does, and somehow 2.1% of decided voters intend to vote for one of the little parties.

Ekos is very strange because their numbers are out of wack with the other major polls.

I never did check to see what polling company has been truest to election results.

The one thing that always makes me a little suspicious of Ekos is that its run by Frank Graves. The same Frank Graves who encouraged the Liberal's to pursue a strategy of cultural war between East and Western Canada duing a interview on CBC

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...rticle1544593/