2011 Federal election polls, demographics, predictions

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Slava

154/154 would be awesome.

Sure would be interesting.

I wonder how long it would take someone from one side of the house or the other to cross the floor to tip the balance.

[octothorp]

Interesting that the Decima poll is actually bad for the Liberals despite being on of the closest ones nationally. In Ontario the Liberals still trail by 10+ points. Most other polls lately have had Ontario getting a lot closer... 5 point lead in the last Leger for the Conservatives, and a 2 point lead (within MoR) for the Liberals in the most recent Nanos, following a week of steady gains in the dailies. For both the Conservatives and the Liberals, it seems like every poll has some good news and some bad news... there's definitely nobody with any real momentum (even looking at any one region), which right now favours the Conservatives given the large lead they started with.

[transplant99]

The Conservatives continue to lead with 38.6% and are projected to win 154 seats, unchanged from yesterday. The Liberals remain at 27.6% and 71 seats, while the New Democrats are also unchanged at 16.8% and 32 seats.

The Bloc Québécois is still at 9.4% nationally and 51 seats, while the Greens are down 0.1 points to 6.3%.

Regionally, things are pretty static. The biggest set of changes has come in British Columbia, where the Conservatives have dropped 0.4 points to 40.3%, followed by the Liberals at 24.2% and the NDP at 23.4%.

In Ontario, the gap has widened by another 0.3 points as the Liberals drop 0.2 and the Conservatives gain 0.1.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have made another gain and now stand at 36.6%, within one point of the Tories.

http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

[transplant99]

This has to be an outlier....but a stunning one all the same. Tories now with a 21 point lead according to the biggest survey to date.

Stephen Harper's Conservatives have gained a massive 21-point lead over Michael Ignatieff's Liberals, according to a new COMPAS Research poll obtained exclusively by QMI Agency.

In Ontario, the Liberals trail their Conservative opponents in every area of the province except Toronto — although Harper leads in the city's suburbs.

The poll, the largest telephone survey of the campaign, also found that Ignatieff is trailing both the Conservatives and the NDP in Quebec, as NDP Leader Jack Layton shows some surprising strength in the province.

"Falling short of a Kim Campbell-style shellacking, the Liberals nonetheless face the prospect of a historic shutout in French Quebec and being limited to islands of support in Atlantic Canada, English-speaking Montreal, the City of Toronto, parts of southern and eastern Ontario, and parts of Vancouver," a poll analysis says.

http://www.calgarysun.com/news/decis.../17974061.html

[North East Goon]

Was that ever an embarrasing debate. First off the set looked like a 70's TV game show!!! I really cant stand any of these so called leaders.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by transplant99

This has to be an outlier....but a stunning one all the same. Tories now with a 21 point lead according to the biggest survey to date.



http://www.calgarysun.com/news/decis.../17974061.html

I don't think that the Liberals are on the road to a majority or anything crazy, but 21 points? Thats got to be flawed somehow.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by transplant99

This has to be an outlier....but a stunning one all the same. Tories now with a 21 point lead according to the biggest survey to date.



http://www.calgarysun.com/news/decis.../17974061.html

Even if it wasn't an outlier, the poll does pre-date the leaked draft of the G8 report, though even the Globe and Mail and Nanos Research don't think that will affect the Tories too much:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...rticle1983312/

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Even if it wasn't an outlier, the poll does pre-date the leaked draft of the G8 report, though even the Globe and Mail and Nanos Research don't think that will affect the Tories too much:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...rticle1983312/

Yup...the whole thing just doesn't seem to be getting the traction something like that should be.

Voters may very well just be fed up with everything enough that some mis-spent money means little to them. 4 elections in 7 years may not be a good strategy for those who don't win.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Yup...the whole thing just doesn't seem to be getting the traction something like that should be.

Voters may very well just be fed up with everything enough that some mis-spent money means little to them. 4 elections in 7 years may not be a good strategy for those who don't win.

Well its largely come to bear that "they're all liars and crooks, so who cares?".

Can't say that I disgaree. I do find it perplexing that so many Conservative voters would string up a Liberal for doing the same thing and are still going to vote for the CPC though.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Slava

Well its largely come to bear that "they're all liars and crooks, so who cares?".

Can't say that I disgaree. I do find it perplexing that so many Conservative voters would string up a Liberal for doing the same thing and are still going to vote for the CPC though.

That works both ways. Liberals screamed about Mulroney over the Airbus thing, they then turned around and re-elected Chretien multiple times.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by North East Goon

Was that ever an embarrasing debate. First off the set looked like a 70's TV game show!!! I really cant stand any of these so called leaders.

I wasn't able to watch. Was it the same set they used last time? You'd think they'd just put it in the back room somewhere and pull it out for next year (at our current pace), when we can have another argument about whether Elizabeth May should get to play with the others or not.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I wasn't able to watch. Was it the same set they used last time? You'd think they'd just put it in the back room somewhere and pull it out for next year (at our current pace), when we can have another argument about whether Elizabeth May should get to play with the others or not.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/...087/story.html

[transplant99]

Here is that COMPAS poll. After reading some of this I think it can almost be dismissed completely.

http://www.compas.ca/110413-National...ions-EPCB.html

[Slava]

It is pretty funny. Even they have to question the idea that people would pick Layton as the person who was a better money manager or judge than Ignatieff though?

Why the Sun would do a story on the poll though is beyond me. Numbers like that wouldn't just suggest a majority, it would be a big majority.

[Caged Great]

the most recent Ekos poll has the conservatives at 33.8% with the Liberals at 28.8%

[CaptainCrunch]

Most recent Nanos has the Conservatives at 39.4 the Liberals at about 30.4 and the Dips at 16.3.

[Cube Inmate]

I've had a couple of calls from automated pollsters -- I have no idea who's conducting them, but that's beside the point. The critical thing is that I LIE to the pollsters each and every time. I think polls are a hindrance to a functional democracy, doing nothing more than instructing people on how to vote strategically and instructing politicians on which constituency to pander to.

If you believe in renewing political discourse, do like I do: LIE TO POLLSTERS!

Just answer exactly opposite to how you would normally answer!

[Stranger]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I wasn't able to watch. Was it the same set they used last time? You'd think they'd just put it in the back room somewhere and pull it out for next year (at our current pace), when we can have another argument about whether Elizabeth May should get to play with the others or not.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

the most recent Ekos poll has the conservatives at 33.8% with the Liberals at 28.8%

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Most recent Nanos has the Conservatives at 39.4 the Liberals at about 30.4 and the Dips at 16.3.

I didn't see these polls (Ekos and Nanos are well known names in the field and those are probably fairly reliable?), but that could make for a close election if it holds.

Take out the regional disparities (60% in Alberta sort of thing) and it must mean that Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario and BC are close.

[CaptainCrunch]

threehundredeight.com's most recent a little change in terms of projections Conservatives lose a seat, Liberal's gain 2 NDP remains stagnent

Seats project out to Conservatives at 151 Liberals at 75, NDP at 33. Conservatives still own BC, Alberta, Manitoba and Sask, they still have what looks like a 19 seat lead in Ontario. The Cons are in third in Quebec with the Liberals in second but its close, of course the block owns. Atlantic Canada is close.

If these numbers are at all accurate, the Conservatives need a big push in Ontario and Atlantic Canada to win their majority.