2011 Canadian Election Thread

[kirant]

Originally Posted by Bertuzzied

There is no way Canadians would give Harper a majority. But i can't wait for the next release of the new attack ads.

Didn't we say something like this about Stelmach? Fair enough that his competition was a LOT weaker and the history of the party different...but there were rumblings about a Tory minority before the election.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by Bertuzzied

There is no way Canadians would give Harper a majority. But i can't wait for the next release of the new attack ads.

I'm not so sure of that, the Liberals sure have taken a swan dive in the polls lately.

[CaptainCrunch]

My guess is that Ignatieff is under intense pressure from the senior liberal Cabal to throw the dice on an election, that the Liberal's have waited long enough. I just can't see them doing anything but losing seats.

This is a bad strategy move, because they've suddenly thrown away their ethics platform in exchange for an economics platform, and I don't think that the Liberal's or NDP can successfully fight an election on it. They basically as of today throw all the cards into Harper's hands.

If I remember my parliment, the Conservatives have an opportunity to go back and modify the budget, but the best move by the standing government is to tell the NDP and Liberal's that they had made consessions in the budget to get it passed and that they can't or won't make any more.

I would expect a non confidence vote on Friday and the government to fall, and as much as the opposition is going to make the non confidence about ethics and abuse of parliment, Canadians are going to believe that this government was toppled based on the budget and they're going to hear from the Cons at every turn that they did put concessions in to the budget for the opposition. They're also going to hear loud and clear that the Conservatives refused to give in on the Bloc blackmail for 2.2 billion dollars.

I don't believe that this was a smart move by the opposition, they should have passed the budget, done the non confidence on the ethic position and then had a leg to stand on.

We know that the Liberal's are fairly disgruntled by Ignatieff's leadership, this seems like a really expensive way to effect a leadership revolt and I'm batsh$t surprised that Ignatieff who is a very smart man is willingly putting his head on the chopping block unless he wants to go.

[Bertuzzied]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

I'm not so sure of that, the Liberals sure have taken a swan dive in the polls lately.

Oh the conservatives might have a majority gov't one day but not with Harper in charge.

Hmmm maybe we can catch a glimpse of sasquatch Anders again. Sightings are about once every 3-4 years.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by oilers_fan

So what was in the budget that they so opposed?

In theory, I bet they state that its about the corporate tax cuts not being dropped.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

My guess is that Ignatieff is under intense pressure from the senior liberal Cabal to throw the dice on an election, that the Liberal's have waited long enough. I just can't see them doing anything but losing seats.

This is a bad strategy move, because they've suddenly thrown away their ethics platform in exchange for an economics platform, and I don't think that the Liberal's or NDP can successfully fight an election on it. They basically as of today throw all the cards into Harper's hands.

If I remember my parliment, the Conservatives have an opportunity to go back and modify the budget, but the best move by the standing government is to tell the NDP and Liberal's that they had made consessions in the budget to get it passed and that they can't or won't make any more.

I would expect a non confidence vote on Friday and the government to fall, and as much as the opposition is going to make the non confidence about ethics and abuse of parliment, Canadians are going to believe that this government was toppled based on the budget and they're going to hear from the Cons at every turn that they did put concessions in to the budget for the opposition. They're also going to hear loud and clear that the Conservatives refused to give in on the Bloc blackmail for 2.2 billion dollars.

I don't believe that this was a smart move by the opposition, they should have passed the budget, done the non confidence on the ethic position and then had a leg to stand on.

We know that the Liberal's are fairly disgruntled by Ignatieff's leadership, this seems like a really expensive way to effect a leadership revolt and I'm batsh$t surprised that Ignatieff who is a very smart man is willingly putting his head on the chopping block unless he wants to go.

Flaherty said they would not take an opposition amendments into account.

I, more or less, agree with this post, except that polls, popularity etc... mean nothing until the writ has dropped. Ignatieff has done some pretty heavy work the past year, and the Conservatives have wheel-barrow full of minor offensives that have really racked up.

[4X4]

Originally Posted by peter12

Flaherty said they would not take an opposition amendments into account.

I, more or less, agree with this post, except that polls, popularity etc... mean nothing until the writ has dropped. Ignatieff has done some pretty heavy work the past year, and the Conservatives have wheel-barrow full of minor offensives that have really racked up.

I must have been asleep. What has Ignatieff done this past year?

[peter12]

Originally Posted by 4X4

I must have been asleep. What has Ignatieff done this past year?

A lot of work at the constituency level. Shaking hands etc... worked on his public profile. In my opinion, he comes across as far more personable, and realistic in front of the camera then he did a few years ago.

[CaptainCrunch]

Oh I agree on the polls.

However while Ignatieff has worked hard, he hasn't done anything to really bolster himself. He's done a poor job of rallying voters and party members to his flag, and his summer bus tour was considered to be poorly executed and did him more harm then good.

And even though the Cons have a wheel barrel full of minor offenses I just don't sense that they've gained a lot of traction, I would also expect that the Conservatives are going to go hard after the BPO office during an election campaign.

If the Conservatives are smart they're going to be the Cobra'kai or however you spell it and try to sweep Ignatieff's leg very early in this campaign.

[Bertuzzied]

If Harper couldn't get a majority against Dion how can he get a majority against anyone else?

[Mtt48]

Amendments to the budget can be made but Flaherty has said that no amendments or further concessions will be agreed upon. I believe the Bloc will likely try to table an amendment tomorrow getting their 2.2 Billion HST payment, but nothing will come of it.

I also get the feeling that the NDP really didn't have an option with this budget. They got a sliver here and there from the Cons but it just was not enough. Also, the notion that the NDP could find confidence in the government for the budget vote but then have no confidence on an ethical confidence vote days later opens them up politically to criticism from the Cons. I think the NDP really had no other option here.

I think it was good politicking by the Cons to appear like they were trying to make Parliament work, but in the end they want their government to fall on this budget and go to the polls. I think it was a well crafted budget that served that purpose and will serve it well.

[4X4]

Originally Posted by peter12

A lot of work at the constituency level. Shaking hands etc... worked on his public profile. In my opinion, he comes across as far more personable, and realistic in front of the camera then he did a few years ago.

Too bad that he's still not ever going to have a sniff at the PMO.

That guy had big potential when he came along, but in the last couple of years, all he's done is prove to be a contrarian wanker (don't worry, he'll know what wanker means).

[Resolute 14]

Nobody cares about minor transgressions.

Ultimately, I think the status quo will emerge, yet again. The polls still favour a Conservative minority, and the boogeyman spectre will likely cap Harper there. Ignatieff is not a guy anyone really sees as leadership material anymore, and he has given the Tories a ton of material to go after him over, including forcing this bloody election.

It will be interesting to see the Liberal counter ads.

The Quebec Arena issue would be an interesting gambit for either side. If the Tories play up the cost of Ignatieff's promises, it will probably bolster them in the rest of Canada, but possibly hurt them in Quebec. Likewise, if the Liberals use that to try and buy votes in Quebec, the Tories could attack them over it, costing the Liberals votes in the ROC.

[Bertuzzied]

Can we have a CP poll?

[Tinordi]

All signs point to another Conservative minority. But there is the possibility that the election breaks open. Conservatives are vulnerable on the ethics issue that is ripe for sound bites (three contempt of parliament rulings in one year).

Liberals' worst enemy is vote splitting on the left.

We'll see.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by peter12

Flaherty said they would not take an opposition amendments into account.

I, more or less, agree with this post, except that polls, popularity etc... mean nothing until the writ has dropped. Ignatieff has done some pretty heavy work the past year, and the Conservatives have wheel-barrow full of minor offensives that have really racked up.

Yeah, there's certainly the ammo there for the other parties to start to build a narrative of arrogance and corruption, but the Conservatives are really good about going on the offensive and dictating the terms of the discussion. Personally, I hate the style of campaigning (attack ads months before an election is called), but it's effective, and with the other parties hurting financially, nobody can go toe-to-toe with them in that style.

A best case for the Liberals is going to be to hold ground or maybe pick up a couple seats. Worst case is a Conservative majority. Ignatieff will be gone in either way, the only question is how long his successor will need to wait before getting a crack.

[CaptainCrunch]

Right now the lead runners to take over for Ignatieff if he should fall are Trudeau who they're pushing very hard for and Bob Rae.

Personally I think that both are bad choices and will cause more harm then good to the Libs.

If Bob Rae becomes the next Liberal leader you can probably kiss every seat in Ontario good bye.

Trudeau might be good one day, but right now he's viewed as a inexperienced empty headed self entitled Prince. His biggest mistake was publishing that article bragging about the amount of money that he spent on his wedding.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by Bertuzzied

If Harper couldn't get a majority against Dion how can he get a majority against anyone else?

Believe it or not, Ignatief has been polling lower than Dion.

[Bertuzzied]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Believe it or not, Ignatief has been polling lower than Dion.

I'll believe it when all the voting is said and done.

[Mtt48]

Estimates from recent polls put the Cons at 153 seats. JUST shy of a majority. There are 308 seats. Of course this is early and there is still a long way to go.