Libya headed for civil war? Update: Gadhafi dead

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by HPLovecraft

It's basically a civil war on the ground, and whether Ghaddafi honours his "cease fire" (and all indications currently point to this not being the case) or not, the rebels won't stand idly by waiting for Ghaddafi to regroup and attack again. The situation is fluid, and the rebels aim to oust Ghaddafi and win the war. A counter-attack will not wait forever.

Which would put the UN into an almost no win situation.

What they can't be seen as doing is providing air support to the Rebels during their counter attack.

[HPLovecraft]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Which would put the UN into an almost no win situation.

What they can't be seen as doing is providing air support to the Rebels during their counter attack.

Well, this is a war being fought over cities -- cities hold civilians, which the UN is said to be protecting. If Ghaddafi targets a city (and the rebels therein), he gets bombed. I'd say it's more of a no-win situation for his regime than anything. I think the wording of the resolution was very carefully considered for these reasons.

Honestly, I don't see Ghaddafi having a chance at this point. His neighbours hate him (he tried to kill King Abdullah!), half of his military and government hates him. The rebels might not be able to take the whole of Libya (definitely not the cities that are most loyal to Ghaddafi), but I wouldn't be surprised to hear about Ghaddafi's assassination by someone in his government or military that realizes the time for that regime is over.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by HPLovecraft

Well, this is a war being fought over cities -- cities hold civilians, which the UN is said to be protecting. If Ghaddafi targets a city (and the rebels therein), he gets bombed. I'd say it's more of a no-win situation for his regime than anything. I think the wording of the resolution was very carefully considered for these reasons.

Oh I agree with you, as long as the UN sticks to protecting cities and civillian areas this should be positive. But . . . and I'm playing devils advocate, the Rebels attack Libyan forces, retreat to a civillian area and the UN bombs the crap out of the Libyan counter attack, then the Rebels take advantage and take more real estate, that would in theory go against their mandate then.

Originally Posted by HPLovecraft

Honestly, I don't see Ghaddafi having a chance at this point. His neighbours hate him (he tried to kill King Abdullah!), half of his military and government hates him. The rebels might not be able to take the whole of Libya (definitely not the cities that are most loyal to Ghaddafi), but I wouldn't be surprised to hear about Ghaddafi's assassination by someone in his government or military that realizes the time for that regime is over.

He's nobodies fool though, as much as he's a cartoon character the guy is surrounded by either his virgin guard, or mercenaries who are loyal to Ghadaffi's money, I doubt anyone gets close enough to pop him. Besides Ghadaffi see's himself as the great Middle Eastern Liberator, I'm sure that he's more then willing to fight to the last bloody shred of humanity and make himself a martyr in the process.

[HPLovecraft]

Al-Jazeera says Ghaddafi troops have just launched an assault about 50km from Benghazi and have cut power to areas of the city.


Update: Qatar will be basing jets at Italian bases in Sicily, so they will be an Arab state (one of the more obvious ones) that will be involved in the no-fly zone. Also, Malta refuses use of their air-bases. Afraid of an attack by Libya? I would be surprised if Libyan jets made it a meter over the water over the Med, but I guess it's a concern since they're within reach.

[worth]

Qatar? Really? So I guess the Mirage they will be flying then?

[CaptainCrunch]

Libya does have some long range missile capabilities, iirc they haven't completed their destruction of their SCUD B's and C's

I know that in 2002 were well into development of 1500 km range missiles, but its disputed whether they were completed or not.

[worth]

41 people shot and killed in Protests in Yemen today. Where's the UN to protect those people?

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/mi...434957754.html

Many wounded and injured in Bahrain. Where's the UN to protect those people? Oh, UN expresses their "deepest concerns". That ought to stop the Bahranian King and Saudi Troops.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/mi...056179376.html

[CaptainCrunch]

The UN does not want to put boots on the ground if they can avoid it, and they probably don't want to stand between protestors and guns.

If it was a clearly defined civil war it would be different, but I would expect that the UN will view this as a local matter that they can protest to the government.

Libya is different because of the use of overwhelming military force.

[HPLovecraft]

Originally Posted by worth

41 people shot and killed in Protests in Yemen today. Where's the UN to protect those people?

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/mi...434957754.html

Many wounded and injured in Bahrain. Where's the UN to protect those people? Oh, UN expresses their "deepest concerns". That ought to stop the Bahranian King and Saudi Troops.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/mi...056179376.html

Comparing this single incident, albeit it being terrible, to the more wide-scale military destruction of what has been going on in Libya, including Ghaddafi's more recent threats to decimate a city of 700,000 people, isn't entirely fair. If this kind of killing goes on for a couple of weeks and includes aircraft bombing cities and tanks rolling along streets in offensives, then maybe you can make a case.

And the Saudi troops have not, to this date, anyway, been involved in coming into contact with Bahrainian civilians.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by worth

41 people shot and killed in Protests in Yemen today. Where's the UN to protect those people?

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/mi...434957754.html

Many wounded and injured in Bahrain. Where's the UN to protect those people? Oh, UN expresses their "deepest concerns". That ought to stop the Bahranian King and Saudi Troops.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/mi...056179376.html

UN Ban Ki-moon said he was deeply concerned about Libya back Feb 23rd, we're ready for a NFZ a month later. So UN does something in a month? What could the UN do in Bahrain's case if it gets much worse? UN clearly has no appetite for sending in troops or peacekeepers and its not like protesters there are getting bombed by Saudis... More sanctions?

[Bigtime]

CF-18's over the Atlantic on their way, from @FMCNL on twitter:

Canadian Air Force flights Oceanic /w Shanwick OAC 2899.0 KHz, heard CFC0496, CFC3815, CFC3816

[SeeBass]

It is too bad that people in the US can't get AJ the coverage is incredible

Freedom of speech my butt http://www.themarknews.com/articles/...nd-of-the-free

[Bigtime]

Update from that twitter feed:

Canadian Air Force CFC3815 & CFC3816 are Airbus CC-150 Polaris Tankers, I presume formation flight /w 6 Hornets CF-18

CFC 3816 with position reports /w Gander 5616.0 kHz: 57N40W 20:28 FL250, 57N30W 21:19 FL270 heading for #Libya

[CaptainCrunch]

Frack thats got to be a long fight in a cramped cockpit.

I would think that these are all senior pilots.

[Bigtime]

I bet it drives fighter jocks nuts having to fly at the speed of a tanker (glorified airliner).

Read a news article saying these CF-18's are out of the Bagotville squadron.

[CaptainCrunch]

6 hours flight time at best

Hope they bought lots of piss bags.

[worth]

Please post any CF-18 related news in here. I'd be interested to see how this operation goes down.

[ernie]

Nuclear reactors and homeless Japanese are getting boring for the likes of CNN. Thank god there might be a war! They are like pigs in #### right now.

[CaptainCrunch]

I wouldn't expect to hear much for a few days.

The pilots will have a mandatory rest period, and the support infrastructure that flew over will have to get things setup.

[HPLovecraft]

Obama, NATO, and those Arab supporters all meet tomorrow to discuss and set up a military command structure and sort targets, etc. Once that is all organized, I would expect air strikes to begin within 24 hours or so. As of right now, nothing is set or prioritized. This UN thing was really scrapped together last minute.