Libya headed for civil war? Update: Gadhafi dead

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

Heard the Italians are sending their carrier Garibaldi into the area, it left Taranto and is on the way.

Man, it always blows me away when you compare American Aircraft Carriers to carriers of the other nations.

But I'm glad to see that Italians are fans of Babylon 5

[Bigtime]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Man, it always blows me away when you compare American Aircraft Carriers to carriers of the other nations.

But I'm glad to see that Italians are fans of Babylon 5

Oh no you didn't...

It also appears that they are ready and willing to send support in the form of Tornado ECR's with the 155 Group for radar suppression.

Edit: According to CTV news our 6 CF-18's are still heading over to enforce the NFZ.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

Oh no you didn't...

It also appears that they are ready and willing to send support in the form of Tornado ECR's with the 155 Group for radar suppression.

Edit: According to CTV news our 6 CF-18's are still heading over to enforce the NFZ.

The CF-18 were suppossed to leave this morning. I bet it was a late night not only for the pilots, but the support crew who had to pack up every spare part and munition and everything else that you need to run a half squadron for what is a indeterminate period of time.

[Bigtime]

Where were they leaving from? Were they already in Iceland? Is it Cold Lake or Bagotville aircraft being used?

[CaptainCrunch]

I'm not sure, I don't think they're physically stationed in Iceland, but I could be wrong. I'm assuming they would fly out of Bagotville

[Barnes]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I'm not sure, I don't think they're physically stationed in Iceland, but I could be wrong. I'm assuming they would fly out of Bagotville

Or maybe Gander NFLD temporally?

The Garibaldi is an interesting little carrier. Not much longer than our frigates.

The HMCS Charlottetown has/will be joining the Enterprise battle group in the area as well.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Barnes

Or maybe Gander NFLD temporally?

The Garibaldi is an interesting little carrier. Not much longer than our frigates.

The HMCS Charlottetown has/will be joining the Enterprise battle group in the area as well.

Could be Gander too which would make sense.

The Garibaldi was built and designated as it was because of the treaty terms at the end of WWII that stated that Italy would not build aircraft carriers, so they designated it as a aircraft carrying cruiser and there was something for a long time about staging Combat Aircraft off of it. When the term expired they started landing combat harriers on it.

But most of the aircraft carriers in the world navies are the same kind of escort carrier configuration. At the moment the American's are the only ones that have what you would define as a fleet carrier with the Chinese trying to build one based on a Russian design.

[Barnes]

I have been doing a bunch of reading because this has been fascinating to me and thought I would share.

Air Power: Planes In Service numbers are before current conflict.

Dassault Mirage F1 - Multi Role Fighter - 1970's


4 In Service. 2 Defected to Malta. 1 Shot down by rebels.

MiG-21 - Interceptor - 1950's


23 In Service. Most are grounded. 2 Shot down by rebels.

MiG-23 - Ground Attack/Interceptor - 1970's


110 In Service. Most are grounded. 13 Captured by rebels. Being used to attack ships and tank positions by rebels.

Su-17


38 In service. One crashed on purpose as crew refused to follow orders to attack protestors. A number are claimed to be shot down by Rebels.

Su-24 - All Weather Attack - 1970's


2 In service. One lost to fire, one shot down by rebels.

Soko J-21 - Attack/Recon


13 In service

Aero L-39 Albatros - Light Ground Attack


110 In Service.

Soko G-3 Ground Attack/Recon


116 In Service. 4 Captured by Rebels.

[HPLovecraft]

Their air force will likely be akin to shooting clay pigeons with modern equipment, but the real threat will be air defenses on the ground.

[Bigtime]

I think it is pretty safe to say that if any of those aircraft got off the ground they would be wholesale slaughtered by NATO aircraft being directed by their AWAC's aircraft.

No contest.

[transplant99]

Obama on national TV right now about this stuff. (interupted NCAA games! so you know its serious )

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

I think it is pretty safe to say that if any of those aircraft got off the ground they would be wholesale slaughtered by NATO aircraft being directed by their AWAC's aircraft.

No contest.

Gaddhafi knows this, probably why he just did the whole ceasefire in the first place. Maybe he's going to try to wait out the NFZ?

[HPLovecraft]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Gaddhafi knows this, probably why he just did the whole ceasefire in the first place. Maybe he's going to try to wait out the NFZ?

They don't put time limits on these things.

[Barnes]

Choppers

Mil Mi-24 - Attack Helicopter - 1970's


37 In Service. 2 Shot down, 1 destroyed on the ground, 1 captured by Rebels.

All of Libya's air force suffers from a shortage of parts for their Soviet era planes which have outlived their usefulness. They had intentions of upgrading to the French Rafale fighter, expressed interest in several modern Su and MiG fighters and other Russian anti-aircraft systems. Russia stands to lose a lot of money now that sanctions have been imposed.

Navy

Koni Class Frigate - Anti-sub Frigate - 1980's


2 total. 1 Operational. Rebels control 1 of them, not sure which.

Nanuchka Class Corvette - Small Missile Ship - 1980's


2 operational, 1 Siezed by Rebels

OSA II - Missile Boat


12 Total, 6 Operational

Combattante II - Missile Boat

9 Total, 7 Operational

Natya Class Minesweepers - 1980's


9 Total, 5 operational.

The Navy is considered to be overreached and ships rarely go to sea. Navy helicopters are all land based. It would take all of their Navy personnel to support the operational fleet. All of their subs have been abandoned.

They are capable of easily laying Russian shallow water contact mines.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by HPLovecraft

They don't put time limits on these things.

No they don't... but wait until interest has waned enough for him to do something about it again without getting the crap blown out of him. Stalling tactic for the time being.

[HPLovecraft]

One of the more interesting (and potentially most dangerous) things going on in the ME right now is the deployment of foreign troops (including Saudi Arabian) into Bahrain. For those that don't know, Bahrain is ruled by Sunni authoritarians, but is populated by a Shia majority. Saudi Arabia, of course, is a country of Sunnis, while Iran is a nation of Shia. Saudi Arabia and Iran are not the best of friends -- while not openly hostile, they do not like each other much at all behind the scenes.

It would seem that what is going on in Bahrain could be the beginning of a proxy war between the Saudis and Iranians. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Iraq etc., have for a long while now complained about Iranian meddling in Arab affairs, and I feel that Saudi Arabia deploying troops into Bahrain is because of them believing Iran is behind what is going on in that country, or they are worried that they may become more heavily involved in some way. Most protesting in Bahrain is going on in mosques and seemingly being led by different clerics -- Shia, of course. Iran has also stated they want all foreign troops to leave Bahrain.

You also have to wonder if this "right to protect" resolution that passed in Libya can't open the way for Iran claiming the "right to protect" civilians in Bahrain. The Sunni leadership has been cracking down on them . . . Only time will tell, I guess, though if you think about it this ruling in Libya certainly does open some theoretical doors for some other nations. This is one of the biggest reasons China claimed not to back it.

[CaptainCrunch]

The biggest threat to the NFZ is the Libya air defense network.

Gaddafi has spent far more lavishly on this as he knows that he could never counter Western Airforces head on

In his inventory.

Sa-2, Sa-3, SA-5 Cotale missile systems and a whole wack of long range anti air artillary

Its also rumored that Libya has purchased up to 20 SU-27/35 which are a threat.

Ghadaffi also has a squadron of TU-22 Blinder light super sonic bombers, which can carry cruise missiles. Even though they are rumored to be retired, there is still evidence that 7 are still on runways.

[HPLovecraft]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

No they don't... but wait until interest has waned enough for him to do something about it again without getting the crap blown out of him. Stalling tactic for the time being.

It's basically a civil war on the ground, and whether Ghaddafi honours his "cease fire" (and all indications currently point to this not being the case) or not, the rebels won't stand idly by waiting for Ghaddafi to regroup and attack again. The situation is fluid, and the rebels aim to oust Ghaddafi and win the war. A counter-attack will not wait forever.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by HPLovecraft

You also have to wonder if this "right to protect" resolution that passed in Libya can't open the way for Iran claiming the "right to protect" civilians in Bahrain. The Sunni leadership has been cracking down on them . . . Only time will tell, I guess, though if you think about it this ruling in Libya certainly does open some theoretical doors for some other nations. This is one of the biggest reasons China claimed not to back it.

Russia also claimed the same thing at that resolution IIRC. Apparently they reject resolutions like this because it sets a dangerous precedent. Didn't stop Russia from using the exact same reasoning as this UN resolution awhile back when they invaded Georgia to protect Russian citizens.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by HPLovecraft

It's basically a civil war on the ground, and whether Ghaddafi honours his "cease fire" (and all indications currently point to this not being the case) or not, the rebels won't stand idly by waiting for Ghaddafi to regroup and attack again. The situation is fluid, and the rebels aim to oust Ghaddafi and win the war. A counter-attack will not wait forever.

True enough. We'll see who makes the next move at this point