Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[Winsor_Pilates]

I was just doing the math, and I could sell all 4 penthouses at Drake for about $2.5 million, combine them all into 1 suite and it would be about 3900 sq feet.
Where are these buyers when you need them!!?

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

I was just doing the math, and I could sell all 4 penthouses at Drake for about $2.5 million, combine them all into 1 suite and it would be about 3900 sq feet.
Where are these buyers when you need them!!?

Interesting. For some reason that seems like a better deal to me than 625,000 for a 975 square foot place, even though obviously it's the same price per square foot and what not. Have they thought of offering the option of selling the penthouse as one big unit? I imagine it could still be customized a bit would be a bit, which might be a bit of a selling feature.

Maybe I just feel that way since there's no way I can afford a 2.5MM$ condo anyway.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Interesting. For some reason that seems like a better deal to me than 625,000 for a 975 square foot place, even though obviously it's the same price per square foot and what not. Have they thought of offering the option of selling the penthouse as one big unit? I imagine it could still be customized a bit would be a bit, which might be a bit of a selling feature.

Maybe I just feel that way since there's no way I can afford a 2.5MM$ condo anyway.

I'm sure if I found a buyer wanting to do that, they'd consider it. As of right now, I've only got 2/4 left anyway.
Having a 2.5MM penthouse on the top of a building that's targeting young professionals, & first time buyer types is kind of bad optics anyway.
Makes more sense in a building like the Princeton, where the whole thing is supposed to be "luxury" and has many wealthy people in it.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

As of right now, I've only got 2/4 left anyway.

It'd be really bad optics to tell the two people who have already bought those units that you've decided to sell them to someone else!

[chemgear]

http://www.calgaryherald.com/busines...823/story.html


January SFH sales look to be close to 2010 totals even with the bump from the "rush" to get in before the minor reduction in mortgage amortizations. Condos look rather poor - not even getting back to 2010 sales - inventory is higher and median prices down further (though the average is nicely propped up by the $4.1 million sale this month.) Absorption rates back over 6 months to sell a condo.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by chemgear

http://www.calgaryherald.com/busines...099/story.html

It's like they can't make up their minds.

apparently not
Calgary Downtown Office Leasing Busiest in Decades

[chemgear]

January numbers are in, summary from Mike Fotiou below:

http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2...te-statistics/

SFH sales a little better than last year, still 3rd worst in a decade. Median prices stable. Pending looks better than last year with the rush to buy before mortgage changes.

Condo sales worst than even last year, also 3rd worst in a decade. Pending sales trend looks pretty poor. Median prices down further - average price nicely propped up by WP's new digs! (When is the house warming?!)

We're 1/4 of the way through the transition to lower amortizations as well.

[Winsor_Pilates]

TD raising fixed rates tomorrow. 5 year going up .25%

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

TD raising fixed rates tomorrow. 5 year going up .25%

http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.co...age-rates.html

Everybody will follow soon I'd imagine.

[albertGQ]

CIBC is raising theirs too

[chemgear]

Here comes the shorter mortgage amortization surge!

http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2...l-estate-blog/

Condos are a little meh but improving. SFH are up over last year and trending upwards - though to be fair, it's still well below 2006/2007 and last year was the worst in a decade and half. Inventory building upwards as expected given the time of year.

Should be interesting to see if there is a change in the second half of March and onwards once the adjustment in mortgages kick in (along with possible rate hikes afterwards.)

I did giggle at first comment post there though:

Calgarians have been warned many times that slow sales are not going to last forever. I guess this is what happens when you are sitting on the fence for too long – the moment is gone, the market has moved on, and now you need to hurry, or you may end up on the wrong side of the fence…


Excuse me while I HURRY and look for that BIG RED (OMG BUY NOW) PANIC button.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Here comes the shorter mortgage amortization surge!

http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2...l-estate-blog/

Condos are a little meh but improving. SFH are up over last year and trending upwards - though to be fair, it's still well below 2006/2007 and last year was the worst in a decade and half. Inventory building upwards as expected given the time of year.

Last year was overall the worst year in a decade, but this time last year and Spring was fairly busy. So, this could be an indication of the same coming this Spring. That would be my guess.

I did giggle at first comment post there though:

Calgarians have been warned many times that slow sales are not going to last forever. I guess this is what happens when you are sitting on the fence for too long – the moment is gone, the market has moved on, and now you need to hurry, or you may end up on the wrong side of the fence…


Excuse me while I HURRY and look for that BIG RED (OMG BUY NOW) PANIC button.

The tone is somewhat giggle worthy, but rising sales tend the happen much faster than the decreasing sales. After a long, slow market, a lot of people do panic at the first sign of a rising market and jump in at the same time.
A lot of fence sitters trying the pick the perfect bottom of the V, end up buying on the upswing together because they're so concerned with targeting the absolute bottom; and when they've all missed it they try to move as fast as possible in fear it's going up.

[Travis Munroe]

The negatives of sitting on the fence are not always related to home prices. Interest rates, mortgage rule changes, etc all can play a negative role.

[bomber317]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

The tone is somewhat giggle worthy, but rising sales tend the happen much faster than the decreasing sales. After a long, slow market, a lot of people do panic at the first sign of a rising market and jump in at the same time.
A lot of fence sitters trying the pick the perfect bottom of the V, end up buying on the upswing together because they're so concerned with targeting the absolute bottom; and when they've all missed it they try to move as fast as possible in fear it's going up.

We've been looking to building a house since December, and ever since the mortgage rule change announcement, the show homes have been really busy. There were a lot of prime lots sitting open for the entire month of December/January and now they are being snapped up.

[J pold]

Canada is a 'purely random success story': Shiller

That’s the conclusion of a leading U.S. economist who’s crunched the numbers and determined two factors that may take Canada down a notch or two: the housing market looks due for a U.S.-style drop; and, without oil, the country would be in trouble.

Thoughts?

[pepper24]

Originally Posted by J pold

Canada is a 'purely random success story': Shiller

Thoughts?

First thought is that I am very familar with Shiller and he's been right a lot in the past especially regarding the 1987 market crash and the recent credit crisis/US real estate bust. I think you have to take him very seriously based on his track record.

That said, I am a strong believer that the Canadian real estate market is due for a significant correction but don't think it'll be as severe as the US. Rates will rise and we're a debt-ridden country but I don't see the same variables as the US.

Shiller is partially correct that natural resources have helped our recovery but a big factor also has been a fairly conservative banking system compared to our EU and US counterparts.

[Sylvanfan]

The other factor is...that I don't think demand for Oil is going to wane any time soon. Yeah, we'd be totally fata'd in Canada if the country didn't have Oil and other Natural resources, but hasn't that always been the case? It's not like Canada has ever been a big time player in global finance or manufacturing. So to say Canada's economy is being propped up by oil...is that something new? Plus the reason oil is up in price is largely because theres a big hungry animal named China. So is it really a fluke?

[macker]

^
Virtually all of Canadas oil exports flow to the US and we don't really benefit from demand from China in the way that Russia, Brazil, Kazakstan etc. do. We account for more than 10% of all oil taken in by the US so we are extremely tied to that market in particular which consumes over two times the amount vs China. I can see what you are saying with the price of oil going up because of China though as we benefit indirectly from that. Hopefully they find a way to export our oil to China though! Sounds like there is hope for LNG also as the planned port at Kitimat could be ready for 2014-2015? I have seen forecasts that annual demand growth from China for LNG should be 3.25% between 2014-2035. We also become increasingly more vulerable to corrections, rate increases, inflation etc. in China. Every day in the markets you can basically claim the market was up or down based on some piece of economic datat from China, true or false.

Robert Hogue economist with RBC came out and said today that the housing market will be stable for the next two years and forecasting price gains of 0.5% in 2011 and 1.3% in 2012. "Rising employment and incomes will perfectly offset higher mortgage rates to keep home prices stable". I think the other Robert (Shiller) is being more objective here and has been stating his findings since October 2008 but this has been a very resilient market that benefited from low rates, easy qualfiying and government spending etc. Everything that Shiller says makes complete sense and there is a reason the Canadian government stepped in to change the way money was being lent. Maybe we are good for another 2 years though

[Travis Munroe]

Anyone catch the headline on housing prices to drop 25% the other night.

It is media hypes like this that can make that become a reality. It is always entertaining to watch the "news'" view on real estate as they get their statistics late. It can be a very slow month and they will be saying things are on the rise at a fast pace or vice versa.

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

Anyone catch the headline on housing prices to drop 25% the other night.

It is media hypes like this that can make that become a reality. It is always entertaining to watch the "news'" view on real estate as they get their statistics late. It can be a very slow month and they will be saying things are on the rise at a fast pace or vice versa.

They are like that with everything, not just real estate. I remember when the boom ended and the recession started the news was about six months late in reporting it. It was still the boom Boom BOOM on TV when reality was telling a very different story.