2011 Toronto Blue Jays Offseason Thread

[flames_1987]

Originally Posted by moon

What?


Unless Napoli someone takes a huge jump forward in his ability I don't see how they get better offensive production from him, especially since he plays the same position as a bunch of others on the team.

.

Napoli plays the same position as a bunch of others on the team? What roster are you looking at? Napoli being able to play 1st and behind the plate is huge for this team.

[flames_1987]

Originally Posted by JayP

How about in 2009 and 2007 (or even 2008 pre-September when he had a .760 OPS on August 22nd and got hot after the Jays were well out of the playoff picture, ending with a .839 OPS)?

Last year was a great year for Wells, but the guy's bad years are absolutely brutal. And considering he's already 32 there's a strong likelihood of more brutal years to come. If you in the fact that the guy can't take a walk to save his life, you see that any significant decline in Wells' bat basically makes him unplayable.

To go along with that, he was the worst in the entire major league at hitting left handers this season and his numbers were almost cut in half when playing outside the Rogers Center.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by moon

What?

Napoli's best offensive seasons aren't close to Wells best seasons. Napoli has some power and that is about it. Everything else

Napoli's best year (2008): .273/.374/.586, good for a .960 OPS
Wells' best year (2006): .303/.357/.542, good for a .899 OPS

Wells only looks good if you're stuck in the 1950's and still use AVG and RBI to judge players.

Unless Napoli someone takes a huge jump forward in his ability I don't see how they get better offensive production from him, especially since he plays the same position as a bunch of others on the team.

Rivera on the bench is a whole bunch of meh, especially since the Jays aren't competing next year.

Rivera will rotate through C/1B/DH where the Jays currently have Arencibia/Lind/Encarnacion playing. The only guy who's arguably a comparable hitter to Napoli of that bunch is Lind and he's only had one hitting season like that.

If they are going to be the kind of team that competes with the Red Sox and Yankees like people keep saying then the Wells contract shouldn't have mattered to re-signing guys.

Good to get rid of the contract since the Jays weren't going to be competitive at any time that Wells would have helped and dumping the deal does help the team I agree with that.

So basically if they're going to be as good as the Yankees or Red Sox they have to spend as much as them? What about Tampa Bay? You don't think Tampa (or the Twins) would like another $20 million in payroll right now to keep those good young players they keep losing?

[moon]

Originally Posted by flames_1987

Napoli plays the same position as a bunch of others on the team? What roster are you looking at? Napoli being able to play 1st and behind the plate is huge for this team.

Well at catcher they have Arrencibia and Molina.

At first base/DH they have Encarnacion and Lind.

[moon]

Originally Posted by JayP

Napoli's best year (2008): .273/.374/.586, good for a .960 OPS
Wells' best year (2006): .303/.357/.542, good for a .899 OPS

Wells only looks good if you're stuck in the 1950's and still use AVG and RBI to judge players.

Napoli's best year was when he played half a season. Since playing a full season those numbers are much lower and his numbers last year, even if using your wonderful sabermetrics BS, still don't compare to Wells at his best.

Rivera will rotate through C/1B/DH where the Jays currently have Arencibia/Lind/Encarnacion playing. The only guy who's arguably a comparable hitter to Napoli of that bunch is Lind and he's only had one hitting season like that.

Napoli and Lind had similar numbers last year and if LInd has only had one season then Napoli has only had 2.5.

So basically if they're going to be as good as the Yankees or Red Sox they have to spend as much as them? What about Tampa Bay? You don't think Tampa (or the Twins) would like another $20 million in payroll right now to keep those good young players they keep losing?

I was talking about competing with Yankees and Red Sox in terms of money spent. We always hear that the Jays have the money if they need it and that Rogers will spend on the team. Well if that is the case then they should never lose young talent due to money concerns.

And nope I think TB would rather lose the players than have the money.

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by moon

Unless Napoli someone takes a huge jump forward in his ability I don't see how they get better offensive production from him, especially since he plays the same position as a bunch of others on the team.

Rivera on the bench is a whole bunch of meh, especially since the Jays aren't competing next year.

Here is a fact for you - Napoli over his career is a very above average Offensive catcher and is pretty good defensively as well. Part of the reason the Angels started playing him at 1B is to get him more ABs and have Mathis in the line up.

Wells on the other hand, should not be playing CF - his defensive ability is very below average for the position and should be on a corner. On a year to year basis, you simply do not know what you are going to get from him.

There are 2 things that score runs in MLB:

1) Consistent offenses (no holes in the lineup)
2) Superstars

Wells isn't a superstar. Not by a long shot, not unless he was able to become a lot more consistent season to season. However, you now add a guy like Napoli who is above average for his position and you see AA now has 2 guys in the hardest positions to get offense from (SS and C) who can hold their own.

That's a long way towards patching some of the holes in this lineup.

I do like the way AA is building this team - stacking the corners with power and getting above average guys down the middle (C, 2B, SS, CF) who are good defensively. We've still got to continue to add better pieces on the corners, but we're making progress.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by moon

Napoli's best year was when he played half a season. Since playing a full season those numbers are much lower and his numbers last year, even if using your wonderful sabermetrics BS, still don't compare to Wells at his best.

Seems like a lot of restrictions for Napoli. Let's forget the fact that Wells' best season came 5 full seasons ago. Since then he's put up seasons of .706 OPS, .840 OPS (inflated from .760 on Aug 22 due to a strong September when the season was over), .711 OPS, and .847 OPS.

Napoli's career OPS is .831. Wells' is .804. Napoli is 3 years younger and his best seasons were in 2008 and 2009. Wells' best seasons were in 2003 and 2006. Who looks like the better bet to be the best hitter in the future?

And I love the sabermetric BS remark even though I'm bringing out pretty basic stats. But I guess I should just go with the flow and accept the fact that Wells is better because he batted 3rd or 4th in the lineup while Napoli was stuck in the 6/7 hole and therefore drove in more runs.

Napoli and Lind had similar numbers last year and if LInd has only had one season then Napoli has only had 2.5.

Napoli - .784 OPS
Lind - .709 OPS

But I guess if you only look at AVG/HR/RBI to judge players you would could say they have similar numbers. Who cares about walks, doubles, or triples anyway?

I was talking about competing with Yankees and Red Sox in terms of money spent. We always hear that the Jays have the money if they need it and that Rogers will spend on the team. Well if that is the case then they should never lose young talent due to money concerns.

I've never heard anywhere that Rogers is willing or going to spend like the Yankees or Red Sox in any situation. Just because he has the money in his empire doesn't mean he's going to spend it.

[flames_1987]

Also needs to be mentioned how strong Napoli has hit left handed pitching his entire career,career .928 OPS against them, very important for a team that was dead last against south paws.

[secol]

IMO, Davis will man CF with Bautistia/Lind/Snider/Rivera sharing the corner OF and DH, occasionally Lind at 1B, Bautista at 3B, Napoli at C......no glut imo especially considering rivera is mainly going to be a bench power bat

[Caged Great]

The Angels did get the better player, and I don't think the Jays would've traded Wells had he been making 5-8 million less per year. Wells is a risky player and could be 09' bad, or 10' decent. That kind of uncertainty is not someone that you'd want to spend 80+ million on over the next 4 years.


The Jays could easily transfer those funds into signing a legit guy who's worth 20 million per after next season, or a couple 10+ million guys

[Gozer]

Pujols looks like he will test free agency next year...

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Gozer

Pujols looks like he will test free agency next year...

And you can almost guarentee that if he doesn't re-sign with the Cards he will be in Boston.

[Clever_Iggy]

Originally Posted by transplant99

And you can almost guarentee that if he doesn't re-sign with the Cards he will be in Boston.

Where would he play though? Gonzalez at 1B and Youkilis at 3B. Ortiz could be allowed to walk after this year (he wants a "multi-year" extension) but that's a lot of money to pay for the DH spot regardless of whether it's one guy or a rotation of Youkilis, Gonzalez and Pujols. Do they trade one of Gonzalez or Youkilis (I can't imagine they would)?

I think he stays NL anyways. If the Dodgers could work out their owners' divorce they would be a candidate. Maybe the Giants can shed Zito's contact (the Angels apparently will take anyone) and be in a position to add some power to that line up.

[bluejays]

I'm a bit late to this party due to being busy, but boy am I happy they got a decent return for Wells. It's been proven over and over again in all sports that it's really not hard to dump "unmovable" contracts, but to get a decent return back, in a very good offensive catcher in Napoli, that means something. Moreover, not sending a penny back to pay part of Wells' salary or giving up prospects is the unbelieveable part. I really liked Wells through the years, and liked his mild-mannered attitude, but that contract had to go, and this opens up a million possibilities for the Jays. Hopefully they money doesn't get burned signing Batista to a long term deal (4+ years) as it's probably not worth taking the risk like they did with Wells.

I want to see AA possibly making a deal to get a little more starting lineup speed. I guess the only possibility is to trade for a 3rd baseman, and that narrows it down to a guy like David Wright, but also a defensive liability especially on Rogers Centre turf (though he'd be next to impossible to pry from the Mets). Another possiblity that probably wouldn't cost a ton would be Brandon Phillips at 2nd base and moving Hill to 3rd. At least the team would be entertaining.

[Sylvanfan]

20 million a year won't even get Pujols agent's secretary to relay the message to him. Try 30, and they might return your call.

The Jays will never be in the big name UFA game and they shouldn't be. They're better off trading for the 4th and 5th year service guys that they can sign for a 2-3 year extension.

[browna]

Fantastic trade, thankfully Wells had a decent year, similar to his contract year stats, this past year. Any return is a bonus, but saving $86 million dollars is the key.
Solid player for the most part, but not the elite, game changing player that Ricciradi's moneyball formula's predicted, and was thus paid as.
As importantly, clearly that AA can make the deal, make the decision, and pull the trigger. Team seems to be in good hands, Rogers notwithstanding.

[Caged Great]

The Jays should really go after Scott Podesednik now. Having him and Davis platoon, utilizing their individual splits vs lefties and righties, would combine to have a fairly good CF, plus the pair are very dangerous steal threats.

[moon]

Originally Posted by JayP

Seems like a lot of restrictions for Napoli. Let's forget the fact that Wells' best season came 5 full seasons ago. Since then he's put up seasons of .706 OPS, .840 OPS (inflated from .760 on Aug 22 due to a strong September when the season was over), .711 OPS, and .847 OPS.

No restrictions on Napoli.

And I agree that Wells is far from a great player himself and many years removed from his best days.

Napoli's career OPS is .831. Wells' is .804. Napoli is 3 years younger and his best seasons were in 2008 and 2009. Wells' best seasons were in 2003 and 2006. Who looks like the better bet to be the best hitter in the future?

For the immediate future I would say looks to be better. For the future, neither guy seems like they will be that great of hitters.

And I love the sabermetric BS remark even though I'm bringing out pretty basic stats. But I guess I should just go with the flow and accept the fact that Wells is better because he batted 3rd or 4th in the lineup while Napoli was stuck in the 6/7 hole and therefore drove in more runs.

You should "go with flow" because if you watch the two guys hit it is clear that Wells is the better hitter.

I've never heard anywhere that Rogers is willing or going to spend like the Yankees or Red Sox in any situation. Just because he has the money in his empire doesn't mean he's going to spend it.

There have been reports in Toronto media that Beeston has said they could have had a 160 million dollar payroll this year if they thought the team was close. Not Yankees/Red Sox numbers but top 5 payroll and in the same league compared to other teams.

[moon]

Originally Posted by Gozer

Pujols looks like he will test free agency next year...

What is that based on?

Every report has him wanting to be signed before the season and every thing that you hear about the guy is how much he wants to be a Cardinal for life?

The Cardinals have handled this about as badly as you could but it is way too early to say that he is going to FA right now.

[Gozer]

Originally Posted by moon

The Cardinals have handled this about as badly as you could but it is way too early to say that he is going to FA right now.

Third hand rumours suggest he is very proud and is annoyed the Cards are jerking him around. Don't really know though.

I could see the Jays offering top dollar on the assumption that he'd fill the Skydome. Maybe 10% chance it happens, but 9% higher than yesterday.