2010 NCAA football thread....

[PIMking]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Of course teams are allowed bad games...but the whole conference pretty much stinks on that side of the ball...and yes you are correct that florida is pretty good as well. i overlooked them.

ANd am I misunderstanding you about Oregon?

They are 8th in the nation in points against....which really is incredible considering their offense is usually only on the field about 2 minutes at a time.

I honestly don't care about Oregon's defense, their offense is just FLAT OUT MEMORIZING. I almost forgot that they play defense or even have a defensive squad.

But back to the SEC, The conference game changed when Florida hired Urban Meyer. He brought the spread in with him and along came the points. Then other schools brought in those type of coaches (either new coordinators or head coaches) to follow suit because football is a Copy cat sport. Now things are starting to turn back into the defense style games with the way Bama won it last year. Florida has already changed it's recruiting tactics to start to get that big huge defensive line and bigger LB's.

It's just the flavor of the month kind of thing. The only reason I think the SEC and PAC10 can adapt faster is because they have better pools of talent.

[ResAlien]

I'm a bit bummed that 1 loss Wisconsin won't get a title shot. Amazing team. Oh well, at least they should get a chance to destroy someone in a BCS bowl.

[ricoFlame]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

I'm a bit bummed that 1 loss Wisconsin won't get a title shot. Amazing team. Oh well, at least they should get a chance to destroy someone in a BCS bowl.

Wisconsin-Stanford Rose bowl would be awesome.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by PIMking

I hate LSU and they haven't looked good all season. But face the facts, they have a top 5 strength of schedule. The SEC has been the strongest conference and plays the best CFB for the last couple of years. The Pac10 is catching them but adding teams like Colorado and Utah isn't going to help.

Actually, the facts say that LSU has the 41st toughest strength of schedule. And that would likely drop more if the computers rightfully included margin of victory.

The fact is that LSU is this year's good team that plays in close games every week (including against mediocre competition) and manages to win all of them. Iowa was that team the past two years. This isn't usually a problem, but this year LSU has the benefit of both being in the overrated SEC (driving up the human polls) and the fact that margin of victory isn't included in the computers (ie; in the Saragrin rankings, LSU is ranked #3 without MoV, #17 with it). Both of those combined put that good, but flukey team that usually is ranked at the bottom of the 1 loss teams to the top of the heap.

[transplant99]

Yeah i have to believe, just from the old eyeball test, that right now Wisconsin is the best 1 loss team in the country. Sparty's stuggles yesterday cemented that even more in my eyes....they should have lost if not for one of themost bizarre throws for an INT I have ever seen.

OSU isnt even in that discussion for me as there is no way they should have won yesterday, but thaks to the incompetance of Iowa being able to keep someone on Aaron Pryor on a 4th and 10, they did.

OK State is the one that seems to be getting forgotten in all this, and should they win against OK next week, they have to be in the mix as well. Stanford looks like they are firing on all cyliders as well and could knock anyone off the way they are playing.

I still think LSU is WAY overrated after seeing them about 6 times this year....and i think they lose next week in Fayetteville, which would knock them out of the talk all together.

[Displaced Flames fan]

Oklahoma seems to be getting it together in time to make the Cowboys irrelevant. They hammered a decent Baylor team in Waco last night and it wasn't even close. That's not the way OU has been doing things this year.

The game is in Stillwater and it should be a good one, but I think OU takes it.

[PIMking]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Yeah i have to believe, just from the old eyeball test, that right now Wisconsin is the best 1 loss team in the country. Sparty's stuggles yesterday cemented that even more in my eyes....they should have lost if not for one of themost bizarre throws for an INT I have ever seen.

OSU isnt even in that discussion for me as there is no way they should have won yesterday, but thaks to the incompetance of Iowa being able to keep someone on Aaron Pryor on a 4th and 10, they did.

OK State is the one that seems to be getting forgotten in all this, and should they win against OK next week, they have to be in the mix as well. Stanford looks like they are firing on all cyliders as well and could knock anyone off the way they are playing.

I still think LSU is WAY overrated after seeing them about 6 times this year....and i think they lose next week in Fayetteville, which would knock them out of the talk all together.

LSU vs Arkansas rivalry isn't played in Fayetteville, when the game is to be hosted by Arkansas the game is played in Little Rock.

[PIMking]

Busy week lined up for me, Iron bowl (Alabama vs Auburn) on Friday, then Florida VS FSU Saturday!!

HELL YEAH!

[transplant99]

Just noticed while looking at the BCS standings from top to bottom...with the one exception of Nevada, the whole thing is fewest losses to most losses. I suppose that shouldnt be that much of a surprise, but it seems like that may be the biggest factor in how the computer does things...and not as much as who lost to who, or more correctly who beat who.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/rankings

[valo403]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Just noticed while looking at the BCS standings from top to bottom...with the one exception of Nevada, the whole thing is fewest losses to most losses. I suppose that shouldnt be that much of a surprise, but it seems like that may be the biggest factor in how the computer does things...and not as much as who lost to who, or more correctly who beat who.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/rankings

Head to head doesn't, and shouldn't, matter unless you're dealing with teams that have near identical resumes. Should James Madison be ranked ahead of VT based off of that one win? South Carolina should leapfrog Alabama based on the head to head win despite the fact that they've lost more games including a loss to a mediocre Kentucky team? If we're talking a situation like OSU and Wisco then yeah, head to head should keep Wisco ahead, but otherwise using head to head gets into an A beat B but C beat B and A beat C etc. situation.

[PIMking]

SOWA,

how is the heat in Austin? Is Mack gettin " fired" talk?

It's a sad state of affairs in both Gainesville, and Austin. Both teams had to replace a all time great QB and a lot of youth in the rest of the line up. I just couldn't believe how far Texas has fallen this year.

[FlamingLonghorn]

Originally Posted by PIMking

SOWA,

how is the heat in Austin? Is Mack gettin " fired" talk?

It's a sad state of affairs in both Gainesville, and Austin. Both teams had to replace a all time great QB and a lot of youth in the rest of the line up. I just couldn't believe how far Texas has fallen this year.

I haven't heard anyone except for a few dumb fans calling for Mack's head. Everyone's been calling for Greg Davis' head for years now including me. He is the worst offensive coordinator in the country. I was so disappointed when he turned down the head coaching job at Minnesota (i was also baffled as to what Minn was thinking).

Mack Brown is allowed one bad year in 12. He has more wins than any coach since he's taken over. His recruiting alone ensures that we will turn it around.

[nik-]

All I have left for this year is hope for an "upset" in the Iron Bowl.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by valo403

Head to head doesn't, and shouldn't, matter unless you're dealing with teams that have near identical resumes. Should James Madison be ranked ahead of VT based off of that one win? South Carolina should leapfrog Alabama based on the head to head win despite the fact that they've lost more games including a loss to a mediocre Kentucky team? If we're talking a situation like OSU and Wisco then yeah, head to head should keep Wisco ahead, but otherwise using head to head gets into an A beat B but C beat B and A beat C etc. situation.

Not did i only not come close to even hinting at anything like that, it would be a fiasco to try and incorporate anything like that. No idea where that came from.

merely an observation while looking at the standing...no more and no less and as i suggested probably not that much of a surprise.


And Sowa...i cant believe for a second that the chancellors of Texas have even considered making a coaching change...Brown is there for as long as he likes IMO...unless he has 2 more years in a row like this one which is unlikely.

[PIMking]

Originally Posted by Sowa

I haven't heard anyone except for a few dumb fans calling for Mack's head. Everyone's been calling for Greg Davis' head for years now including me. He is the worst offensive coordinator in the country. I was so disappointed when he turned down the head coaching job at Minnesota (i was also baffled as to what Minn was thinking).

Mack Brown is allowed one bad year in 12. He has more wins than any coach since he's taken over. His recruiting alone ensures that we will turn it around.

It could be worse, you could have Steve Adazzio as your OC.

[PIMking]

Originally Posted by nik-

All I have left for this year is hope for an "upset" in the Iron Bowl.

I will be there, then the next day I will be heading to Tallahassee

[valo403]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Not did i only not come close to even hinting at anything like that, it would be a fiasco to try and incorporate anything like that. No idea where that came from.

merely an observation while looking at the standing...no more and no less and as i suggested probably not that much of a surprise.

Well you were tlaking about incorporating who beat who and who lost to who, so what was I supposed to take that to mean?

[FlamingLonghorn]

Originally Posted by PIMking

It could be worse, you could have Steve Adazzio as your OC.

Does Adazzio insist on running bubble screens or draws on every 3rd and long situation? I swear if I know what Texas is about to run you know the DC of other teams do. UT won a national championship because VY was able to take Greg Davis' terrible play calling and create something out of nothing.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Just noticed while looking at the BCS standings from top to bottom...with the one exception of Nevada, the whole thing is fewest losses to most losses. I suppose that shouldnt be that much of a surprise, but it seems like that may be the biggest factor in how the computer does things...and not as much as who lost to who, or more correctly who beat who.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/rankings

Looking at those rankings, I'd say the human polls are as much reason the rankings are basically ordered by record. Look at both polls closely - I can't see a case where there's a team with a final ranking over +/- 2 away from what the human polls say they are.

The problem with the computer rankings is that they stupidly don't include margin of victory. That's not a BCS/playoff sort of thing either (because the computers would still exist in both cases like RPI in basketball) - it's more of a NCAA "sportsmanship" issue. The problem is that margin of victory which essentially encompasses total point differential (points for - points against) is the best way to determine which teams are better and predict future success.

Obviously strength of schedule and other factors have to be considered, but treating a 1 point squeaker and a 40 point blowout against similar teams as if they're the same is outrageous. The humans voting don't treat them the same so why shouldn't the computers?

As I said earlier in this thread, the alleged sportsmanship issue could easily be alleviated in the computers by simply capping the margin of victory to some agreed upon upper limit (say 28 points - 4 touchdowns).

For an idea of how much margin of victory matters in the computers, look at the Saragin Rankings used in the BCS:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt10.htm

There are some HUGE shake-ups - particularly Auburn and LSU each dropping 10+ spots because of their inability to blow weaker teams out (consistently anyways).

[PIMking]

Originally Posted by Sowa

Does Adazzio insist on running bubble screens or draws on every 3rd and long situation? I swear if I know what Texas is about to run you know the DC of other teams do. UT won a national championship because VY was able to take Greg Davis' terrible play calling and create something out of nothing.

That and his dive read play with a 5'8 178lb running back that runs a sub 10 second 100 meter dash...

we love to run the swing pass on 1st down.