2010 NCAA football thread....

[valo403]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Actually i get that quite clearly thanks, its why i am wondering how it can be in any way accurate...especially when it comes up with OSU ahead of Wisconsin...makes zero sense. There has to be a built in bias to particular schools/conferences to allow for such a result...at least looking at it from a logical point of view. If that's the case, fine. I would suggest it a really bad idea, but nothing beyond that.

I get this thing will somewhat sort itself out, particularly over the next 3 weeks or so, and we may have some sort of realistic ranking at that time...just weird to see where they have teams now based solely on SOS when i look at the same schedules and cant see any way things should be as they are.

Dude, the formulas are incomplete until the season moves further along. You seem to understand this in your second paragraph, yet completely let it fly over your head in the first. Don't put too much stock into the early BCS rankings.

[valo403]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

You can't assume how bad Nebraska really is or Miami really is. They were highly ranked when they were beat which means everything in this system. If someone beats Boise State this year, people will jump up and down and say 'see see see, I knew they sucked" but in fact they are highly ranked right now so the teams that beat them plus the teams that beat that team will get a big boost.

I thought Wisconsin would have jumped a bit higher.

Wisconsin obviously gets a boost from Saturday's win, but outside of that they've played 4 very weak teams, slipped past an ASU team that has been hard to peg as good or bad from week to week, and lost by 2 scores to MSU. I'd say they're about where they should be.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by valo403

Wisconsin obviously gets a boost from Saturday's win, but outside of that they've played 4 very weak teams, slipped past an ASU team that has been hard to peg as good or bad from week to week, and lost by 2 scores to MSU. I'd say they're about where they should be.

Yeah just that they were 17th going into the game against OSU with the weak schedule they had leading upto it. So I thought they would move up more than 4 spots. However, I understand that that was a totally different poll.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

You can't assume how bad Nebraska really is or Miami really is. They were highly ranked when they were beat which means everything in this system. If someone beats Boise State this year, people will jump up and down and say 'see see see, I knew they sucked" but in fact they are highly ranked right now so the teams that beat them plus the teams that beat that team will get a big boost.

I thought Wisconsin would have jumped a bit higher.

No, where they were ranked when the game was played means absolutely nothing to the computers. Some of the computers place more emphasis on games later in the season than earlier games, but that's about the extent of it. To the computers, Miami is the #27 team (or whatever they are now) so Ohio St. (for example) doesn't get more credit for beating them when they were #11.

All this computer hate that is taking over the college football world is simply a matter of ignorance. Like valo keeps repeating, the computers are designed to get the rankings right in December, not mid-October. There's plenty of information on how each computer ranking is calculated (except for the exact formula which 99.9% of people wouldn't understand anyways) and usually it's pretty simple. The most important thing is strength of schedule which at this point in the season is hard to calculate.

The big issue with the computers (and it's not the computers fault) is that margin of victory was taken out of the formulas for sportsmanship reasons which is an absolute joke. For some reason, it's fine for AP voters, the media, fans, etc. etc. to judge teams based on how much they win by, but when a computer does it it encourages blowouts.

The hilarious thing is that fixing the "problem" is so simple. All they have to do is divide margin of victory in segments (1-3 pt win, 4-7 pt win, etc.) and have a cap when you get a pre-determined blowout win (ie; 25 points is a blowout so winning by 26 and winning by 40 have the same value). You could get more specific and do it point by point (instead of segments) until the blowout cap, but I think the segments makes more sense due to the unique nature of football scoring (ie; winning by 4 points and 6 points is basically the same since the other team needs to another TD to win in either case).

I always find it funny that whenever the computers do something wacky it's a national outrage when there's absolutely ridiculous errors made by the human polls every week.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Actually i get that quite clearly thanks, its why i am wondering how it can be in any way accurate...especially when it comes up with OSU ahead of Wisconsin...makes zero sense. There has to be a built in bias to particular schools/conferences to allow for such a result...at least looking at it from a logical point of view. If that's the case, fine. I would suggest it a really bad idea, but nothing beyond that.

You clearly don't understand the computers very well if you think they were designed to gives Ohio St. and Texas additional points simply because they're OSU and UT.

When you look at any computer rankings think of three major things - strength of schedule, where the game was played and FORGET margin of victory.

To some computer rankings, a 30-29 win on the road is worth more than a 30-0 win at home.

[JayP]

For an example of how huge margin of victory is to the computer polls, look at Saragrin's:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt10.htm

The ELO_CHESS column is the one used for the BCS - margin of victory is irrelevant. The PREDICTOR column is essentially the same formula except with margin of victory included.

Look at some of the huge changes:
- Oklahoma jumps from #1 to #7 (which, if all the computers had similar drops, would easily put them out of the top 2)
- Bama jumps from #20 to #5
- Wisconsin drops from #10 to #34
- Michigan St. drops from #3 to #27

There's plenty more of 10+ spot drops that could easily mix up the BCS rankings.

[transplant99]

When you look at any computer rankings think of three major things - strength of schedule, where the game was played and FORGET margin of victory.

Which is WHY i dont understand the current results...i thought I made that perfectly clear.

And where did margin of victory get mentioned?

[JayP]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Which is WHY i dont understand the current results...i thought I made that perfectly clear.

And where did margin of victory get mentioned?

Well, you do mention margin of victory in almost all your posts. Saying Oklahoma has only beat Texas who lost big to UCLA is talking about margin of victory.

And it's impossible to understand how strength of schedule in the computer polls work without mentioning margin of victory. The two are entirely dependent. Strength of schedule with and without margin of victory included are completely different things. Like I brought up above, Texas losing to UCLA and Texas losing to UCLA big are completely different statements.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Actually i get that quite clearly thanks, its why i am wondering how it can be in any way accurate...especially when it comes up with OSU ahead of Wisconsin...makes zero sense. There has to be a built in bias to particular schools/conferences to allow for such a result...at least looking at it from a logical point of view. If that's the case, fine. I would suggest it a really bad idea, but nothing beyond that.

There isn't a bias, it's just statistical weirdness: of the six computers, four of them rank Wisconsin above OSU. If you average out the rankings of all six computers, Wisconsin still ranks above OSU. So far so good.

However, the BCS formula throws out the high and low computer scores for each team. In this case, both Massey scores are thrown out (ranking Ohio State 21st and Wisconsin 19th, the low for both) and the Colley score for OSU (13th) and Sagarin score for Wisconsin (10th).

What you're left with is rankings of 16, 14, 14, 14 for OSU, and rankings of 18, 17, 13, 13 for Wisconsin. So now OSU has the better score. weird system, I agree. But not biased.

[PIMking]

I will say, Thank God that I was at a wedding half way across the country and didn't have to see that pathetic excuse of a football game VS MSU...

Gator country is in complete MELTDOWN. It's worse than FOI last week.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by JayP

No, where they were ranked when the game was played means absolutely nothing to the computers. Some of the computers place more emphasis on games later in the season than earlier games, but that's about the extent of it. To the computers, Miami is the #27 team (or whatever they are now) so Ohio St. (for example) doesn't get more credit for beating them when they were #11.

ah thanks, I thought it did. Cause they always talk about beating a #1.
But by your explanation, if OSU tanks the rest of the year, Wisconsin beating a #1 isn't such a big deal anymore.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

ah thanks, I thought it did. Cause they always talk about beating a #1.
But by your explanation, if OSU tanks the rest of the year, Wisconsin beating a #1 isn't such a big deal anymore.

Yeah, that's exactly right.

Beating a #1 is a little different since it's basically impossible to be #1, lose and stay #1. Plus, the #1 team is almost always a very good team - you don't see teams who were #1 at some point during the year not in top 10-15 by year's end often.

It's more an issue of when people talk about a team's "resume" at the end of the year and how they've beat 6 ranked teams. The problem is that 3 of those ranked teams aren't in the top 25 anymore and the other 3 are #11, #21, and #24 or something. This is particularly an issue with SEC teams because the last 5 spots are almost always full of average SEC teams when there's plenty of similar teams from different conferences that get left out.

Look at Arkansas and Miss. St - are those teams really any better or have better resumes than North Carolina, Baylor, USC, Michigan, Northwestern, NC State, etc? No, but when Auburn or Alabama are showcasing their resumes at the end of the season all they talk about is beating those barely ranked teams like Arkansas and Miss. St.

[PIMking]

Don't worry about BCS rankings until championship week is over.

[wpgflamesfan]

It looks like the Ducks are playing madden on easy mode. Just dominant

[valo403]

Originally Posted by wpgflamesfan

It looks like the Ducks are playing madden on easy mode. Just dominant

YEah, they look pretty good. Still want to see them matched up with a team that has an elite D before I'm convinced they're the best, but if they keep winning like this that will happen in Glendale.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by valo403

YEah, they look pretty good. Still want to see them matched up with a team that has an elite D before I'm convinced they're the best, but if they keep winning like this that will happen in Glendale.

Scores like last night will continue until they see Arizona in late November more or less, but at this point they look head and shoulders better than any team in the country.

Its not even the talent that blows me away, its the way they play in that hurry-up offense that simply doesnt allow the opposition to make subs or react to who is on the field for the Ducks. And that QB has the option thing down pat.

They really are something to watch at this point.

[PIMking]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Scores like last night will continue until they see Arizona in late November more or less, but at this point they look head and shoulders better than any team in the country.

Its not even the talent that blows me away, its the way they play in that hurry-up offense that simply doesnt allow the opposition to make subs or react to who is on the field for the Ducks. And that QB has the option thing down pat.

They really are something to watch at this point.

This is one of the few times we agree on something.

Oregon is just flat out scary, they don't beat teams, they just flat out demolish them. The schemes they use are amazing and just basically out pace the other teams defense. They won't allow them to even get set. If it wasn't for the officials moving the chains and setting the ball they would of already snapped the ball on the next play.

What really amazes me is that the back up qb is more of a drop back qb and it's not like they miss a dang beat. I wish our coaching staff would watch tape on this and take notes on how to run the spread.

[wpgflamesfan]

The only downside to running an offence like Oregon's is that you can't build, what would traditionally be considered as a good defence as they'd get completely gassed. You're forced to go with more undersized, finesse guys and rotate basically everyone on the two-deep into the game.

Look at last night's TOP: UCLA 39 minutes OREGON 21 minutes.

[JayP]

The thing about Oregon's zone read offense is that they really don't do anything different than teams like Michigan and West Virginia. If anything, they've simplified the playbook to allow for perfect execution and the quick pace.

For anyone who enjoys the X's and O's of football, it's very interesting to see two completely different offensive philosophies in Oregon and Boise St. be so effective. Boise St. does a ton of unconventional things to out-scheme their opponent on nearly every play and end up with blocking numbers (a lot of which is done through motion). Oregon isn't at all concerned with that - they are focused on putting the pressure on the defense with the hurry-up and forcing them into poor execution that creates holes.

One thing Oregon would have to be concerned about is going against an athletic defense like Ohio St. in the Rose Bowl last year. They would be a lot less prone to get gassed by the hurry-up and if they can play discipline defense and maintain their gaps there isn't a whole lot Oregon does that simply out-schemes the other team.

[theonlywhiteout]

just leaving my hotel room now to drive to knoxville. my 10 year dream of seeing a game in neyland is coming true today, i am so pumped up i barely slept last night. pics to come when back in cowtown!