Calgary Civic Election: Mayoralty Poll #4 - The Heat is On

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by firebug

It certainly may not be 50%, but I would bet it will be 80 - 100% better than Higgins.

However, look at this thread. How many have indicated that they have already voted at the advance polls?

Do you think this is just a CP or internet phenomenon?

Look at the donation lists from the 3 candidates. Which are filled with companies and which are filled with many small personal donations?

Nenshi's appeal is not to the young. It is to the involved and informed, and I believe that those people will indeed get out and vote.

Yes I do....or more correctly put ...an imbalanced view of what will actually happen. Just look at the poll support numbers here to determine that. Nenshi is running at nearly 70%....and that is no where near reality.

Nenshi's appeal is HIGHEST among the young though...at least according to the data i have read. That could be a huge problem on tuesday as history has indicated. That's all I am saying....and why i think that Higgins and Nenshi split while McIver streaks through right between them both.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by firebug

It certainly may not be 50%, but I would bet it will be 80 - 100% better than Higgins.

However, look at this thread. How many have indicated that they have already voted at the advance polls?

Do you think this is just a CP or internet phenomenon?
.

I would take the bet that it will not be 80 to 100% better than Higgins...

Yes I do believe its a "CP" and or Internet phenomenon... I bet he finishes 3rd.

[firebug]

Originally Posted by flambers

I would take the bet that it will not be 80 to 100% better than Higgins...

Yes I do believe its a "CP" and or Internet phenomenon... I bet he finishes 3rd.

I suspect your bet will be as accurate as this one was back in August.

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthr...75#post2628475

Originally Posted by Cheese

Im willing to bet that CP pundits are way off on their choice for Mayor...Nenshi will not crack top 5.

What I said back in August (my story hasn't changed) when Nenshi was polling about 5%:

Originally Posted by firebug

That is a tough nut to crack.

Some experts expect only 30 - 35% of eligible voters to participate in the upcoming election (link).

However, municipal elections offer the citizen the most direct way to become involved in politics.

Certainly this years Mayors race has such a broad spectrum of candidates that no person can truly claim that all candidates suck.

Internet access removes barriers to become informed about candidate's platforms (at least for those candidates who bother to prepare them).

Apathy is still a major problem that will hurt some candidates more than others.

Here is how i have them handicapped:
Higgins: Best name recognition, and currently polling in the lead; however I suspect that she will have the lowest 'follow-through' level of any of the candidates.

McIver: Very good name recognition and strong appeal to voters with similar priorities; his poll respondent's 'follow through' should be better than Barb, but won't be great.

Hehr/Nenshi: Yes they are two separate candidates but have some key similarities - high level of appeal to politically involved/interested voters; low levels of name recognition but highly involved supporters (ie. high level of election day follow through). Will they be able to bridge the gap?

Other Candidates: A diverse bunch, but so far none have shown either broad name recognition or a focused base of support.

~Bug

[Swayze11]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

You guarantee??? Effing arrogant .

Just so you know, the reason why I called him arrogant was because I thought he was taking a shot at another poster simply posting their opinion. I did not know he was serious with his post. Go ahead and continue to take shots at me.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by Swayze11

Just so you know, the reason why I called him arrogant was because I thought he was taking a shot at another poster simply posting their opinion. I did not know he was serious with his post. Go ahead and continue to take shots at me.

Its all in good fun. Doesnt hurt to ask a question.

[firebug]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Yes I do....or more correctly put ...an imbalanced view of what will actually happen. Just look at the poll support numbers here to determine that. Nenshi is running at nearly 70%....and that is no where near reality.

Let's look at how Nenshi has trended here on CP and see if it really is that different than the real world.

CP Poll #1
Nenshi 65/159 41%
McIver 38/159 24%
Higgins 0/159 (Not yet a declared candidate - Hehr was in 3rd place)

CP Poll #2
Nenshi 98/305 33%
McIver 37/305 12%
Higgins 75/305 25%

CP Poll #3
Nenshi 144/240 60%
McIver 32/240 13%
Higgins 29/240 12%

CP Poll #4
Nenshi 190/280 68%
McIver 43/280 15%
Higgins 29/280 10%

So in absolute numbers, an additional 125 CP users were willing to tick the nenshi box in the 4th poll verses the 1st, and his share of votes increased over 50%. (Comparably, Nenshi's support in the general population increased more than 400%)

McIver has had an additional 5 CP users select him from the 1st to 4th polls while his share of voters has remained fairly consistent over the past 3. (McIver's share of the public vote has also stalled, failing to make any increases)

Higgins had a bunch of early supporters (poll 2) but has lost 46 of them (more than half) in the most recent tally. (Public polls also showed Higgins with an early lead in the race, significantly ahead of McIver - now she is mired in a dead heat)

So while the percentages may differ on CP verses the city as a whole, the trends are spot on.

[ben voyonsdonc]

Hawkesworth's throw of support will likely have a really minimal impact on the race. Why?

1) Many of his diehard supporters have already voted for him in the advanced voting...when you are at +/- 3% in the polls, almost any supporters would be considered "die hard";
2) Bob and Barb share so little in common that I can't imagine that many of his supporters will be tremendously enthusiastic to show up at the polls to support her;
3) Because Bob's name will be on the ballot, a percentage of his supporters will still vote for him;
4) Many of his supporters are closer to Nenshi's vision for Calgary than Barb's lack of one.

[Gondi Stylez]

Calgary needs Nenshi!

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by firebug

Let's look at how Nenshi has trended here on CP and see if it really is that different than the real world.

CP Poll #1
Nenshi 65/159 41%
McIver 38/159 24%
Higgins 0/159 (Not yet a declared candidate - Hehr was in 3rd place)

CP Poll #2
Nenshi 98/305 33%
McIver 37/305 12%
Higgins 75/305 25%

CP Poll #3
Nenshi 144/240 60%
McIver 32/240 13%
Higgins 29/240 12%

CP Poll #4
Nenshi 190/280 68%
McIver 43/280 15%
Higgins 29/280 10%

So in absolute numbers, an additional 125 CP users were willing to tick the nenshi box in the 4th poll verses the 1st, and his share of votes increased over 50%. (Comparably, Nenshi's support in the general population increased more than 400%)

McIver has had an additional 5 CP users select him from the 1st to 4th polls while his share of voters has remained fairly consistent over the past 3. (McIver's share of the public vote has also stalled, failing to make any increases)

Higgins had a bunch of early supporters (poll 2) but has lost 46 of them (more than half) in the most recent tally. (Public polls also showed Higgins with an early lead in the race, significantly ahead of McIver - now she is mired in a dead heat)

So while the percentages may differ on CP verses the city as a whole, the trends are spot on.

Dude...you are dreaming if you think that this completely unscientific poll of CP is in ANY way relative to the real world. I mean there could be 40 people voting in this poll that cant in real life because of location/age etc. That completely skews everything.




I hope you are right, I hope Nenshi wins the thing, (again from a distance and from very limited research on platforms etc) and he may. However...i keep coming back to it, his biggest level of support is among those least likely to vote. Not sure that is something that he can overcome or not, it all depends on how he and his campaign workers are able to rally the troops on Tuesday.

[Flames0910]

WOW those are some great numbers for Nenshi!

[Bigtime]

Originally Posted by transplant99

I hope you are right, I hope Nenshi wins the thing, (again from a distance and from very limited research on platforms etc) and he may. However...i keep coming back to it, his biggest level of support is among those least likely to vote. Not sure that is something that he can overcome or not, it all depends on how he and his campaign workers are able to rally the troops on Tuesday.

I hope for our sake we rally the troops on Monday!

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

I hope for our sake we rally the troops on Monday!

That reminds me of that story that came out around the US election in 2008 where unscrupulous Republicans were supposedly telling people that because the election turn-out was expected to be so high, the election was going to be extended by a day and that all Republican supporters were asked to vote on Tuesday and all Democratic supporters to go on Wednesday.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by transplant99

I hope you are right, I hope Nenshi wins the thing, (again from a distance and from very limited research on platforms etc) and he may. However...i keep coming back to it, his biggest level of support is among those least likely to vote. Not sure that is something that he can overcome or not, it all depends on how he and his campaign workers are able to rally the troops on Tuesday.

I think if anything, the thing that Nenshi's campaign has shown is that he is quite capable of rallying the troops to his cause. He's gone from 5% to 30% in a little less than a month.

And I get that a lot of the negatives surrounding his campaign is that his supposed base, the 18-35 year olds only sit around smoking pot and watching Dexter, but is this really any better than saying that seniors won't vote because they're too busy watching Matlock? I think these generalizations are an outdated mentality.

Nenshi's team has spent quite a bit of their time at the Universities and SAIT promoting students to get out to vote. And from initial first hand accounts on the #yycvote discussion it looks like students are taking the opportunity to flex their voting muscle at the advance polling stations at their respective institutions.

There are a lot of good things going for Nenshi's campaign and I think he may be peaking at the most opportune time.

• His base are fanatic about him. I think in comparison to Barb and McIvor, Nenshi's supporters are doing a far better job of personally convincing others or engaging them in a political conversation.The number of single personal donations on his site is pretty telling to this.
• The Bob Hawksworth controversy is almost galvanizing his supporters in that us vs. the rest of them mentality, which is pushing a stronger tie to vote and get people informed.
• I think this last poll came out at the most opportune time for Nenshi, because at the beginning of the week, it seemed like there was a good portion of the ABM movement debating whether to side with Barb to ensure Dr. No didn't get in.
• The difference in time frames from the previous two polls to the one released today is very important. The previous two polls were taken within a day apart of each other. Giving a misleading image that the campaign had stalled and it was too late. While this last poll is at least 4 days apart. So it's showing a steady increased for Nenshi.

I'm not saying Nenshi is a lock to win this by any means. It's still Ric's to lose. And anything can happen in the last 5 days, but things are definitely looking up for N^2 at the moment and I don't see them slowing down.

[CaptainCrunch]

I can't believe you guys are taking my bong and dexter stuff that seriously. I find it sad that young people are so gullible that I need to start putting my sarcastic thoughts in green text.

[Cscutch]

Also with the younger crowd... Some of the aldermanic candidates have been spending a lot of time at the post secondary schools as well trying to drum up support.

Ward 1 and Mayor Forums held in Mac Hall
Mayor Speed dating held at MRU
Mayor Forum held @ SAIT
Arts Vote Mayor Forum, younger crowd.

You have some very high profile younger candidates running such as Chris Harper in Ward 1 and Zak Pashak in Ward 8 which also helps.

Young people are being more engaged this election than any other, with the use of social media such as blogs, facebook, twitter...

In past elections the young didn't care just because they were not engaged. I was going to SAIT in 2001 and there wasn't much engagement on campus then. No forums, no candidates, not much.

I am still guess that it will be the smallest demographic turnout but I am guessing the largest increase.

Chris

[Bigtime]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I can't believe you guys are taking my bong and dexter stuff that seriously. I find it sad that young people are so gullible that I need to start putting my sarcastic thoughts in green text.

Yup, all in good fun. Just like the fish in American Dad (Klaus) telling the viewers on Sunday to put down their GED paperwork and enjoy the show.

[Shazam]

Welp, going to vote in a few minutes. Getting wisdom teeth pulled on Monday.

[Swayze11]

I am officially changing my vote:

http://communities.canada.com/calgar...candidate.aspx

[kermitology]

transplant99 I think you're argument is based on the notion that Twitter and Facebook are only made up of 18-35 year old demographics, and I'm not sure that is the case.

Someone on the YYCVote stream posted an analysis of the demographics of both sites and found that there are a surprising number of users, the age who will go out and vote. I'm not going to quote numbers because I can't find the web-link, I thought it might have been DJ Kelly, but his blog doesn't seem to have what I'm looking for.

In any case, I think it's important to ask the question of WHY the 18-35 demographic doesn't go out and vote. My opinion is that politics doesn't do anything to engage us. I don't count myself in that group because I've always voted at every opportunity I've had, but this election has been really interesting to me because of the amount of engagement it's created amongst people my age, and even people outside my age group. I've never donated to a political campaign until this one, I know c.t.ner is the same. This is the first time that a candidate has decided to actively try to engage me to garner support, don't underestimate what has been traditional, when there are so many untraditional means to engage voters.

Aha! I found my link, and indeed it was DJ Kelly:

http://djkelly.ca/2010/08/18-to-34-y...gary-election/





Wouldn't you know it.. the highest percentage of FB users is actually OVER 40! Haha, you old balls are learning the internets!

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by kermitology

transplant99 I think you're argument is based on the notion that Twitter and Facebook are only made up of 18-35 year old demographics, and I'm not sure that is the case.

Someone on the YYCVote stream posted an analysis of the demographics of both sites and found that there are a surprising number of users, the age who will go out and vote. I'm not going to quote numbers because I can't find the web-link, I thought it might have been DJ Kelly, but his blog doesn't seem to have what I'm looking for.

In any case, I think it's important to ask the question of WHY the 18-35 demographic doesn't go out and vote. My opinion is that politics doesn't do anything to engage us. I don't count myself in that group because I've always voted at every opportunity I've had, but this election has been really interesting to me because of the amount of engagement it's created amongst people my age, and even people outside my age group. I've never donated to a political campaign until this one, I know c.t.ner is the same. This is the first time that a candidate has decided to actively try to engage me to garner support, don't underestimate what has been traditional, when there are so many untraditional means to engage voters.

Its not up to politics to engage anyone. Its up to the person to do their homework and get engaged in politics and practice their right to vote.

This campaign bores me so I'm not going to vote isn't a good excuse at all.