Calgary Civic Election: Mayoralty Poll #4 - The Heat is On

[SebC]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I wouldn't mind Nenshi winning, but I still have worries about his ability to fix the financial problems and fix the auditable issues.

Well given that the financial problems can't be fixed without economically sustainable development, if Nenshi might not be able to do it, then McIver and Higgins certainly cannot.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Bunk

Name recognition between the three will start to equalize as the coverage of the race intensifies. Considering Higgins and McIver both have enjoyed such a massive name recognition advantage, Nenshi will be the benificiary.

What Nenshi really needs is a televised debate between the three so that the average Calgarian can see how he stacks up.

Not sure who's participating, but there's a televised debate on Wednesday (CBC).

[Bunk]

Never truer words spoken:

jeremybarretto If your support peaks on day one, people know your name. If you support increases from day one, people like your ideas. #yycvote

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

But is it enough, I would expect the big push by all candidates and point shifts will be harder to come by.

I wouldn't mind Nenshi winning, but I still have worries about his ability to fix the financial problems and fix the auditable issues.

Well there are a lot of wildcards on the table still.

• The poll does have a Margin of Error of +/-4.4%.
• How do these numbers affect the supporters of Wayne Stewart, Craig Burrows, John Lord, etc.? Where do their voters go? Are they shifting towards Barb or will they go behind Nenshi? I don't think that their supporters are strongly aligned with McIver's policies.
• Barb for all her name recognition and heavy hitters team isn't going anywhere. It's been an incredibly stagnant campaign and I don't see a monsterous momentum jump.
• Nenshi's support has doubled and still has momentum building. That being said, for his camp it would have been better if he was in the 20% range, but it's still a strong indication of momentum.
• 17% are still undecided.
• Again there's no information on how the poll was determined, so we still need to see how information was gathered.

Either way it's going to be an interesting two weeks.

[burn_this_city]

Pretty surprising Higgins remained the same. Seemed like she was trending downward.

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Pretty surprising Higgins remained the same. Seemed like she was trending downward.

Yep, never underestimate name recognition. That advantage will fade the closer it gets to election day though.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by SebC

Well given that the financial problems can't be fixed without economically sustainable development, if Nenshi might not be able to do it, then McIver and Higgins certainly cannot.

I don't disagree with you on that.

McIver certainly dosen't have my vote, not because of his Dr No theories, but because he's just as cupable as the rest of the City Council in how they mismanged this city and bascially allowed the weasels to run the hen house.

Higgin's hasn't shown me anything beyond a flashy splash to open her compain.

I can't stand Hawkesworth I think he's a arrogant blowhard who's out of touch.

So its probably going to be Nenshi, but I'm looking for a balance with the heavier side being a cleanup of the nonsense at the City and a need to open up the books to an outside auditor.

[Cscutch]

I still believe that Higgin's number is so high because of the non-voters combined with name recognition, just picking a name when asked. I am assuming Nenshi and McIver have more dedicated supporters. The game is still about getting supporters out to vote for you.

Chris

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

Well there are a lot of wildcards on the table still.

• The poll does have a Margin of Error of +/-4.4%.
• How do these numbers affect the supporters of Wayne Stewart, Craig Burrows, John Lord, etc.? Where do their voters go? Are they shifting towards Barb or will they go behind Nenshi? I don't think that their supporters are strongly aligned with McIver's policies.
• Barb for all her name recognition and heavy hitters team isn't going anywhere. It's been an incredibly stagnant campaign and I don't see a monsterous momentum jump.
• Nenshi's support has doubled and still has momentum building. That being said, for his camp it would have been better if he was in the 20% range, but it's still a strong indication of momentum.
• 17% are still undecided.
• Again there's no information on how the poll was determined, so we still need to see how information was gathered.

Either way it's going to be an interesting two weeks.

With voter undecideds being at 17% I always make the assumption that the 17% isn't sgoing to vote.

I agree with the momentum comment, but I've usually found that a lot of ground is made up at the beginning and middle part of the campaign but ground is made up grudgingly at the end because voters are lazy and usually won't change their minds late in the game.

A lot of the lesser candidates will scoop up the undecided votes because they'll be seen as protest votes for those who don't want to vote for the top three no matter what.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Cscutch

I still believe that Higgin's number is so high because of the non-voters combined with name recognition, just picking a name when asked. I am assuming Nenshi and McIver have more dedicated supporters. The game is still about getting supporters out to vote for you.

Chris

Identity politics. I know a bunch of women in Higgins camp simply because she's a woman and they want a female mayor. Her support is probably understated on this forum because we would most likely be 90% male on this board.

[Flames0910]

Big drop off for Dr No

Not sure if 16 is enough for Nenshi but he's definitely trending in the right direction.

LoL @ Barb not moving a single point.

[Ashartus]

To me this poll shows it's anyone's race (among the top 3). McIvor and Higgins are now within the poll's margin of error of each other. Nenshi is clearly behind, but has momentum and a lot of McIvor/Higgins supporters that are just picking someone based on name recognition may not be motivated enough to actually vote. McIvor has got to be worried by those results.

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

So its probably going to be Nenshi, but I'm looking for a balance with the heavier side being a cleanup of the nonsense at the City and a need to open up the books to an outside auditor.

New video from Nenshi on his proposal for the auditor:

http://www.nenshi.ca/new/2010/120

[SebC]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

With voter undecideds being at 17% I always make the assumption that the 17% isn't sgoing to vote.

I agree with the momentum comment, but I've usually found that a lot of ground is made up at the beginning and middle part of the campaign but ground is made up grudgingly at the end because voters are lazy and usually won't change their minds late in the game.

A lot of the lesser candidates will scoop up the undecided votes because they'll be seen as protest votes for those who don't want to vote for the top three no matter what.

Last poll, that 17% was 44%, so assuming that the undecided voters won't become decided voters isn't a great assumption. I do agree though that last-minute changes are hard to earn. I also still think turnout won't pass 40%, which means a lot of "decided voters" won't show up. Right now I'd say it all depends on who the about half of the decided voters (or 40% of the population) who won't actually vote are supporting.

[Cheese]

so I get certain emails from Calgary sent to me and see this poll today...

A new telephone poll of 501 Calgarians conducted by Calgary pollster Return on Insight shows Rick McIver (31%) has a three per cent lead on Barb Higgins (28%) in the race for mayor.

Naheed Nenshi finished third with 16% support.

The margin of error is +/- 4.4% 19 times out of 20.

/edit
seems like this is old news on a back scan

[Cscutch]

From Twitter:

From the Calgary Sun

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@Tisin Calgary Sun had planned a debate with t/ top 3 in a 2-hour livestream for next week. Only @Nenshi accepted #yycvote #top3candebate
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[Bunk]

So according to the poll details there were 16% undecided.

Amongst the decided the results were:

McIver 37%
Higgins 33%
Nenshi 19%

So Calgary Sun wanted to hold a 3 way debate, but Higgins and McIver declined. Cowards.

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by Bunk

Cameron Mayor poll:

McIver 31%.
Higgins 28%
Nenshi 16%
everyone else 3% or less.
17% 'undecided'.

The results of the previous poll were:
McIver 43%
Higgins 28%
Nenshi 8%

I would not have thought McIver would drop that much.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by Rathji

I would not have thought McIver would drop that much.

Could be all the undecided who were firmly against him finally figuring out how they want to vote.

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by Cscutch

From Twitter:

From the Calgary Sun

----------------------------------------------
@Tisin Calgary Sun had planned a debate with t/ top 3 in a 2-hour livestream for next week. Only @Nenshi accepted #yycvote #top3candebate
----------------------------------------------

That is very telling.

I wonder if McIver and Higgins are both insecure enough to refuse any 3 way debate.