Liberals introduce bill to reinstate mandatory long form census

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Devils'Advocate

New poll out today:
http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/201...intention.html

Support for the conservatives is considerably down with the university educated, in part leading to the poll numbers showing the Liberals and Conservatives in a near deadlock.

Interesting--the Tories are now back into a deadlock at less than 30% for each of the two big parties. The numbers seem to be gelling at this level, making it an 11 point drop for the Tories over just a few months.

Weirdly, the Liberals have actually benefited from this drop less than they should have. They've been slow to get in front of this issue in my view. In the meantime, the Greens have gained ground, probably at the expense of the NDP.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Interesting--the Tories are now back into a deadlock at less than 30% for each of the two big parties. The numbers seem to be gelling at this level, making it an 11 point drop for the Tories over just a few months.

Weirdly, the Liberals have actually benefited from this drop less than they should have. They've been slow to get in front of this issue in my view. In the meantime, the Greens have gained ground, probably at the expense of the NDP.

Is there potential here for a vote split on the left similar to the old PC/Reform? Ironically, a strong green party might be the one thing that would guarantee the Conservatives a majority.

Michael

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Interesting--the Tories are now back into a deadlock at less than 30% for each of the two big parties. The numbers seem to be gelling at this level, making it an 11 point drop for the Tories over just a few months.

Weirdly, the Liberals have actually benefited from this drop less than they should have. They've been slow to get in front of this issue in my view. In the meantime, the Greens have gained ground, probably at the expense of the NDP.

Polls mean absolutely nothing until the writ is dropped. Also what's interesting is that based on the poll, the Tories have never dropped below 30%. This means they probably have a much more secure base than the other parties. Their real challenge is to expand that through smart rhetoric during an election.

[CaptainCrunch]

I don't put much thought into Summer polls at all, you ask someone about who they're going to vote for in a poll and your more then likely to get shot then get an answer.

The Cons are sitting at 30%, but I don't recall them ever being higher then 36% (someone can correct me if I'm wrong), so definately the long form census issue did strike some bells, but that will be long buried by any election date.

Ignatieff also came off of the bus tour, but it would be interesting to break down the polls by region and see how that effected because it had no real impact east of the Manitoba border because Ignatieff could only be bothered to spend four days of the summer out here, so he's already conceded the Western Provinces which is foolish, it makes him look timid and whimpy.

I would expect that the polls will probably shift back over the Cons slightly once Parliment gets back into session if last year is any indication, the Liberal's did not come across well in Parliment.

[SeeBass]

Iggy did a lot of cross country work this summer it seems the results have paid off.

I agree with some of the other posters that the polls mean nothing right now. I think Candians can swing their vote quite quick in the month before an election.

For lack of a better description I think most Canadians would not want to change horses midstream during tough times worldwide.

[Devils'Advocate]

I don't think that the "change horses" thing is true. Many, many countries around the world have had turnover at the top. Now, in many of those countries, they fared worse economically than we did. It would seem that prudent banking restrictions put in place by the Liberals are now protecting the Conservative minority government. If anything, Canadian may elect the Conservatives because of the LACK of financial crisis.

The census issue may die too soon for the Liberals. They will introduce their legislation and it will be back in the news again soon, but they can't drag it into the fall since the census unit needs to start putting in their final changes soon. They were under tight deadlines before this issue came up, so now it's even more difficult. Trying to drag this into October would be pointless since STC would likely be unable to accomodate any further changes by that time. But the reverberations may last longer... there is a lack of trust issue that is growing. As I mentioned earlier in this thread, the issue may die, but the characteristics shown by the handling of this issue may stick like mud.

[SeeBass]

Originally Posted by Devils'Advocate

I don't think that the "change horses" thing is true. Many, many countries around the world have had turnover at the top. Now, in many of those countries, they fared worse economically than we did. It would seem that prudent banking restrictions put in place by the Liberals are now protecting the Conservative minority government. If anything, Canadian may elect the Conservatives because of the LACK of financial crisis.

The census issue may die too soon for the Liberals. They will introduce their legislation and it will be back in the news again soon, but they can't drag it into the fall since the census unit needs to start putting in their final changes soon. They were under tight deadlines before this issue came up, so now it's even more difficult. Trying to drag this into October would be pointless since STC would likely be unable to accomodate any further changes by that time. But the reverberations may last longer... there is a lack of trust issue that is growing. As I mentioned earlier in this thread, the issue may die, but the characteristics shown by the handling of this issue may stick like mud.

I agree with what you are saying but because we are not hit as hard as others I would see a fear to change.
I also think that the vast majority of Canadians would not vote on who made the law but rather who is in charge now and how is it going.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by SeeBass

Iggy did a lot of cross country work this summer it seems the results have paid off.

I agree with some of the other posters that the polls mean nothing right now. I think Candians can swing their vote quite quick in the month before an election.

For lack of a better description I think most Canadians would not want to change horses midstream during tough times worldwide.

I don't know if it did that much good, in the last poll where they ranked individual leaders, Ignatieff was basically in third place behind Jack Layton, and this was 3/4 of the way through the bus tour.

Plus the bus tour was about securing safe votes for the Liberal's they didn't do much in the way of hitting rural areas in Manitoba, Sask and Alberta, which is where the Conservatives did most of their bus tours before they won their election.

Right now the vote sag for the conservatives is more about the Conservatives fumbling on issues like the Long Gun Registry and the Census, and not about Ignatieff making headway with the average voter.

[mykalberta]

As a right of center person I wont be worried about polls until they show the same thing in October/November.

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Is there potential here for a vote split on the left similar to the old PC/Reform?

What do you think the NDP has been doing for years?

[octothorp]

Interesting, that poll is a larger sample size than any I've seen in quite a while. But agreed, summer polls aren't generally meaningful. However, the most interesting number is Ontario: it shows the Liberals with a nearly 7% lead (39% to 32%). No poll has showed the Liberals with that sort of lead since mid January. And if it held true, it would represent a 12 point swing in Ontario from the last election, where the Conservatives finished with a 5% lead.
But I think the Conservative numbers are skewed because a lot of people who support the Greens in polls will actually vote conservative. The numbers look particularly wonky in Atlantic Canada, with the Greens actually in second place, and the Liberals with a 25 point lead over the Conservatives.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by octothorp

But I think the Conservative numbers are skewed because a lot of people who support the Greens in polls will actually vote conservative. The numbers look particularly wonky in Atlantic Canada, with the Greens actually in second place, and the Liberals with a 25 point lead over the Conservatives.

A valuable poll would be the second choice of people whose first choice is the Greens. File it under, "Since they won't win my seat anyway, who is my second choice."

Michael

[SebC]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Is there potential here for a vote split on the left similar to the old PC/Reform? Ironically, a strong green party might be the one thing that would guarantee the Conservatives a majority.

Michael

At those numbers the Conservatives are a smaller minority than they are now.

Originally Posted by bizaro86

A valuable poll would be the second choice of people whose first choice is the Greens. File it under, "Since they won't win my seat anyway, who is my second choice."

Michael

I have to think a lot of Green party supporters aren't strategic voters, considering they never win seats.