Bush takes large lead on Kerry: latest polls

[Cowperson]

A TIME Magazine poll taken in the middle of the Republican convention showed GW Bush with an 11 point lead on John Kerry. Today, another poll, this one from Newsweek taken the night of the Bush speech and the day after, confirms the 52%-41% Bush lead.

Among those queried after the Republican convention, Bush was given a 16 point cushion in the Newsweek poll.

It looks like the kind of bump Kerry expected from the Democratic convention but never got.

Surprised? Is this it for Kerry? How important do the coming debates become for each candidate? If attack ads worked for GW Bush, why didn't Farenheit 9/11 work for Kerry?

Debate.

The poll story:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5915140/site/newsweek/

Cowperson

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Because Republicans didn't go see F911. They buried their heads in the sand and whined loudly about the treatment they were getting. Republicans are extremely close minded for the most part and bleet nothing but party line, ignoring the issues or the state of the country.

Add to that, the RNC was much better covered by the networks which allowed the Republican message to get out much more effectively than the Democrats. The GOP (Good Ol' Party) also did a masterful job of scheduling their speakers, having the Neo-Cons speak during the day when the coverage was minimal, and then had the moderates speak in the evenings during prime time. It was a palatable convention for most Americans because they did not have to listen to the real message that the Bush administration is built around and were exposed to the moderates that have no real impact on the Bush plan.

Kerry is also making it easy for the Rove and the Republican pit vipers. He's getting bogged down in the quagmire that is Viet Nam instead of getting the country to focus on the the mess in Iraq, the lack of jobs, the p*ss poor health care system, etc. The race is just starting IMO, as people have not really been paying attention to the election at this point. I think that once the debates get rolling we'll get a much better indication as to whether Kerry is sunk.

[Weiser Wonder]

I think Kerry needs to go after Bush, hard in these last months leading up to the election. Trying not to offend the undecided voters just isn't working. He has to be aggresive. The debates become very important for Kerry. Kerry has to outright destroy Bush in them, all Bush has to do is hold his own.

Kerry says he's a good closer...Please, please let it be true.

[Clarkey]

I enjoyed Bush's speech. Kerry's late night rebuttle came off as pathetic and whiney, it was a win/lose decision for Kerry and he lost. I realize that this bump in the polls for Bush will subside before the election but unless Kerry can figure out a way to bump himself up he will not win.

I'm kind of torren but I think due to the benefit of improved international relations it might be better to have Kerry in office for 4 years with a switch to Guiliani in 2008.

[Cowperson]

Originally posted by Lanny_MacDonald@Sep 5 2004, 12:58 AM
Because Republicans didn't go see F911. They buried their heads in the sand and whined loudly about the treatment they were getting. Republicans are extremely close minded for the most part and bleet nothing but party line, ignoring the issues or the state of the country.

Add to that, the RNC was much better covered by the networks which allowed the Republican message to get out much more effectively than the Democrats.

True story:

I was sitting with my wife in the San Antonio, Texas airport on Thursday night and this young woman, no more than 24 years old, was loudly gabbing about nothing with some friend on her cellphone when suddenly the conversation turned serious.

She told her friend she refused to see Farenheit 9/11 because it appalled her to think that "lying" gadfly, Michael Moore, "would get a single nickel of my money. My friends think I'm crazy but that's just the way I feel about it!!"

At which point I turned to Mrs. Cowperson and whispered "Atta girl!!"

The young lady caught me in the act when my wife started to laugh and assumed we were ridiculing her position on Farenheit 9/11. She told her conversation partner: "There are people in the airport here LAUGHING at me right now for what I just said but I'm serious about it. Michael Moore is a lying turd and I'm not giving him any of my money!!"

I didn't get a chance to correct her on my opinion - a regret - but it's one small illustration how entrenched positions are in the USA. (Mrs. Cowperson hates GW Bush by the way).

Both Farenheit 9/11 and the Swiftboat ads were dismissed outright by the opposition and both were easily torn to shreds on a point by point basis by their critics, at least enough that decided voters on both sides of the fence dismissed them as irrelevant even as they were being championed by supporters.

Both were essentially preaching to the choir and poll results seemed to reflect that, Republicans no more likely to change their votes because of Michael Moore than Democrats were to change their votes over whether or not Kerry deserved his medals.

However, maybe its just me, but I thought the RECENT Swiftboat campaign ads which have John Kerry as a young veteran throwing away war medals along with another ad with his comments that soldiers in Vietnam were ALL essentially baby killers, has been devastatingly effective.

If I'm not mistaken, the baby killer ad was released Aug. 20 and the latest on Aug. 31. They seem to coincide, along with the RNC convention, with Kerry's swoon in the standings.

We know the American public came out of Vietnam and into the 1980's with a collective guilt trip about how they had treated Vietnam vets. The new mantra through the Reagan years and into the first Gulf War was: "It's okay to criticize the leaders, but regardless of what happens, lets cheer on the boys we're sending into harms way." Even Michael Moore won't criticize the soldiers.

To bring back the "baby killer" accusations from so long ago and put that front and centre with Kerry's picture stamped on it - a charge Kerry can't easily refute since it's a matter of public record - I think really strikes a cord with a lot of Americans even though Kerry wasn't particularly out of sorts with public sentiment when he made his original statements. It certainly goes against the CURRENT public mood and probably turned a lot of veterans away from him in recent polls.

It's natural to assume the Bush camp got a Convention lift in the polls. It would be normal if they did. But it wouldn't surprise me if the coincidental ads I cited might have driven a nail right through Kerry's forehead as well.

Just my opinion.

The baby killer ad I found on Google:

http://humaneventsonline.com.edgesui...it_video2.html

The medal ad:

http://swiftvets.com/medalsscript.html

d to that, the RNC was much better covered by the networks which allowed the Republican message to get out much more effectively than the Democrats.


People actually keep track of that stuff and any story I saw in the aftermath had coverage roughly equal between the two conventions, the Republicans and Democrats getting effectively the same air time on the networks. The Democrats certainly don't seem to be squawking about it. FOX, as might be expected, stands out as a bit of an exception as noted in this story.

A fair look at convention coverage:

http://www.pbs.org/now/politics/rnc.html

And another link after the Democratic convention:

http://www.pbs.org/now/politics/conventions.html

If the Republicans were better at scheduling and spinning their message - and most observors agree this particular White House is the best in at least 50 years in doing that - then more power to them.

Besides, isn't the "left wing mainstream media" supposed to be helping Kerry out?

Oops, sorry, you're the guy who thinks the mainstream media is a government controlled propoganda organ for the Bush camp.

It's hard to keep you guys on the left and right straight. Your complaints about the press all sound the same.

The race is just starting IMO

I think its over.

And I was hoping Kerry would win.

Kerry needs a big score in the debates ala Brian Mulroney in 1984.

Even the devastating terror attack on a school in Russia is probably helping Bush right now. Even a terror attack in the USA might help him.

My thoughts.

Cowperson

[Mike F]

I think its over.

I can't remember what show it was on, so I can't site the source, but one non-partisan analyst I saw interviewed said that these national poll results are going to be of little relevance when it comes to predicting the results of the election.

His reasoning was that Bush has solidified his base to a nearly unprecidented extent, and his hold on traditionally conservative states is iron tight. However if you look at the state-by-state polling, Kerry still leads in the traditionally Liberal states and is still neck-and-neck in the swing states.

Now this may have changed between that interview and the convention, but I wouldn't go calling the race due to national polls.

[Flame On]

To me it's like the debate in the main board. It's issues based vs. positional based debating. The Bush camp only hit talking points, sound bites and appeal to base fears and concerens aswell as emotional heart-string pulling and patriotism. Kerry's camp seems to have actual policy and plans to speak of.
The States, to me, seems too emotionally scared and freaked out by terror (even though it's worst case happened under the republican watch) and are needing something more "from the gut" to vote with and thus Issue based debating seems a better tactic.
This past week I too formulated the opinion that Bush will take it. What I can't understand is that Bush who states he has strong leadership and is the person to trust on security and threat, has done nothing to prove that. He's actually dropped the ball devastatingly so several times yet still has the wool pulled over their eyes.
4 more years of Freedom fries i guess.

[CaptainCrunch]

In my mind this election is going to go to the guy that does the least crappy job in the coming months.

John Kerry and the Democrats in my mind haven't run a very good campaign at all.

this whole election has been about the other guy sucking, or being a draft dodger, or making up his heroic war record.

there has been no real break down of the issues.

Kerry has now shot himself in the foot and the only way to get the election now is to beat the president in the face to face debates.

Honestly I don't think thats going to happen, this is going to come down to a close vote. But I expect the republican's are going to send another president to the white house.

I also expect an all time low voter turnout.

[Displaced Flames fan]

I could write a book on this, but I don't feel like it.

I'll just make a couple of points. Kerry has been attacking the Bush administration on jobs....yet Bush has 12 straight months of job growth to his credit. The bottom line is people are not convinced, and rightfully so, that the economy is in a shambles. In addition, the are sick of hearing the Democrat line about how Bush has lost more jobs during his Presidency than anyone since Hoover. Americans are smart enough to know...'

1. Bush inherited an economy on the decline.
2. 9-11 pushed the economy into uncharted waters.



In addition, John Kerry has said NOTHING about what he will do if he becomes president. He is STILL on the I'm not Bush thing...and that just doesn't play. Tell me something Senator, I don't vote for people based on who they are not.

Finally, Kerry seems to want to ride on his status as a war hero. He said, "Bring it on"....well they did and he's getting absolutely pummelled....and by his own words.

Of course, you can go with Lanny's belief that I'm stupid and have my head buried in the sand...but what I said above makes a lot of sense and are 3 big reasons why I'm leaning toward backing Bush again.

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Originally posted by Displaced Flames fan@Sep 5 2004, 09:46 AM

Of course, you can go with Lanny's belief that I'm stupid and have my head buried in the sand...but what I said above makes a lot of sense and are 3 big reasons why I'm leaning toward backing Bush again.

Actually Dis, I have never said you were the average American. I've always believed that you were a lot smarter than the average American. I still believe that. One thing I do believe is that you are like a lot of Americans, are not being given the whole story and are being fed a steady stream of propaganda which gives you very little to question. I believe we are going through a period no different that McCarthyism, except the Neo-Cons are not playing the "communist" card against their enemies, they're playing the "patriot" card against their enemies. No one dare stand up be counted for fear of being destroyed and publicly humiliated. This is a time in American history that I think 20-30 years from now people will be ashamed of how they refused to stand up to their government. and question their motives. Americans are being lead down a garden path by a bunch of psychotics bent on world domination. We're being fed a kinder gentler form of facism. Its unfortunate that people just can't see the forest for the trees.

As for the "nukem" comment. I stand by it. All you have to do is actually discuss the Middle East issue with the average American for no more than five minutes, and play the other side of the fence (walking a mile in the Arab's sandles so to speak) before you hear the infamous "###### it, nukem" come flying out of their mouths. Its so predictable it isn't even funny. What is funny is that there is a disturbing trend that I have discovered while talking to people and doing some research. The more right wing the individual, the quicker the response is produced. It also coincides with the amount of information that the person has learned in regards to the Middle East. The further right wing the individual, the less informed they are (or care to be) and less motivated to discuss the issue. This is all generalization, but is supported by a trend I have seen speaking with hundreds of people. The two jobs I have (yes, a direct result of living in Bush's new America and finding that job sharing and part time work (counted as job creation btw) is the best one can find in his brilliant solution for economic improvement) give me opportunity to speak people from all walks of life, so its an opinion well defined and not knee jerk, unlike the reaction I get from most people trying to talk politics and the Middle East.

[Displaced Flames fan]

Fair enough on the average thing....however the rest of your post is, in your own words, a steaming coil.

In all my time over the last 3 years talking to people about 9/11 and Iraq....people who lost GREAT jobs and the ability to take care of their families as a result, not once have I heard someone say nuke 'em. Furthermore, the farther to the right one gets on the political spectrum the more religious people one finds. Knowing evangelical Christians out the wazoo...one of which was my best friend in high shool, son of a preacher (wild back then as they all seem to be), campaigned for Dukakis for God sake, has now after 16 years and 4 sons and an MBA, JD, BS in Chemistry and a degree from a seminary entered the political fray...much further to the right than I have....and I can guarantee you the evangelicals (as the left-wing media has begun referring to them) are the last people who would advocated the use of nuclear weapons to eliminate a group of people...threat or no threat. You're embellishing your experiences .....clearly.

What kills me is that all this McCarthyism, fascism garbage that spews out of the mouth of the people who lean to the left on this site seems to be born of only the GOP! Why, the dems just represent all that is good and righteous and don't have any agenda other than to help people.

What a freaking crock.

I can see just fine, thank you, and I don't need your I'm smarter than you lecture on what is going on in my country because somehow you, as a Canadian living here, have some better level of insight than I do.

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Wait for it Dis. I'm working on something (chock full of links for the "proof" required for some) that will expose the Bush administration for what they are and expose the truth behind what has happened over the past eight years. Prepare to have your eyes opened. It scared the sh*t out of me when I found out about it, I think it will have the same effect on you. It changed the way I look at things and makes me worried for the future.

BTW... I believe I have a much better grasp on the present state of your country than you do. You have years of built up prejudices and learnings to deal with when it comes to discussing politics. I have more of a clean slate to balance out what someone is saying. I find that most Americans are so focused on the black and white Democrat/Republican battle that they refuse to look at issues with anything but party blinders on if they bother to look at them at all. This election is being waged over a man's Viet Nam record versus someone's reaction to the events of 9/11. No one has spoken on where America is going or how they are going to get there. This fact has been lost in the rhetoric and smoke screen being generated by both sides. But that's okay, because Americans love the spectacle of a good bitch fight, and that's what's developing.

[Displaced Flames fan]

I doubt it Lanny. I'm not easily influenced by dramatics, propoganda and spin. You should know that by now.

Bush has actually laid out his plans for a second term. He did it at the RNC and he's been doing it for the last 2 months on the campaign trail. His opponent, on the other hand, has been doing his dog and pony routine...Bush is bad...I'm not Bush...that mean's I'm good....preaching to the choir and not at all making an effort to reach out to those on the fence with something tangible that he can hang his hat on as to why he is the better choice.

Kerry has chosen the route that this campaign has gone. In fact, the way the campaign has gone just mirrors the rhetoric that has been coming out of people like Kennedy and Daschle for the last 3 years. Why he would go down that path and then bring up his service as a selling point (he knows the animosity he created among Vietnam vets, what the hell was he thinking?) is a mystery to me.

He had a great chance to get into the White House and he's let it slip by....why?

[Cowperson]

Originally posted by Lanny_MacDonald@Sep 5 2004, 03:25 PM
Wait for it Dis. I'm working on something (chock full of links for the "proof" required for some) that will expose the Bush administration for what they are and expose the truth behind what has happened over the past eight years.

That should be quite the tale since they've only been in charge four years.

Cowperson

[Displaced Flames fan]

3 quotes from Kerry's stump stop in Akron, OH yesterday.

"No matter how hard this administration tries to sweep this under the rug, America's seniors will notice because they are paying the price for George Bush's failed leadership," Kerry said.

"If President Bush thinks this is good enough, then he just doesn't get it," Kerry said. "It's very clear that his economic policies have failed the American middle class."

"I believe we need a new direction for America's families, and together, we're going to put the middle class first and get our economy back on track," the Massachusetts senator said.

This is the typical Kerry campaign message. Bush sucks, vote for me..I'm not Bush.

Tell me what YOU are going to do Senator Kerry.

Can anyone find a quote this man has made in a speech that lays out a specific plan of action on any of the issues he's hammering Bush on? 'Cause I can find a hundred quotes just like the one's above that have no meat in them whatsoever. The swing voters in this election want to see some ideas and if he doesn't trot some good ones out, and quickly, he's going to lose BIG.

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Originally posted by Cowperson+Sep 5 2004, 03:45 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Cowperson @ Sep 5 2004, 03:45 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Lanny_MacDonald@Sep 5 2004, 03:25 PM
Wait for it Dis. I'm working on something (chock full of links for the "proof" required for some) that will expose the Bush administration for what they are and expose the truth behind what has happened over the past eight years.

That should be quite the tale since they've only been in charge four years.

Cowperson [/b][/quote]
Actually smartass, a lot of these characters have been around and held influential posts since Reagan was in office. The melding of the minds took place and a coalition was formed in 1997 that documented a plan for a new form of American Imperialism. From that point forward a powerful lobby was created and significant plan was hatched to ensure "American greatness" would flourish around the globe. But why bother telling you this. You're the all knowing all seeing Cow. All you need to know is what is regurgitated on FoxNews.

[Cowperson]

Originally posted by Lanny_MacDonald+Sep 5 2004, 04:48 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Lanny_MacDonald @ Sep 5 2004, 04:48 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'>

That should be quite the tale since they've only been in charge four years.

Cowperson

Actually smartass, a lot of these characters have been around and held influential posts since Reagan was in office. The melding of the minds took place and a coalition was formed in 1997 that documented a plan for a new form of American Imperialism. From that point forward a powerful lobby was created and significant plan was hatched to ensure "American greatness" would flourish around the globe. But why bother telling you this.
[/b][/quote]
You're the all knowing all seeing Cow. All you need to know is what is regurgitated on FoxNews.

Since I don't have access to FOX News in Canada you'll have to guess again.

The melding of the minds took place and a coalition was formed in 1997 that documented a plan for a new form of American Imperialism.

You mean this ole thing? I'll save you some time and post this summary:

http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/nightli...nac_030310.html

Their plan was so secret they even put up their own website and outlined the entire thing well before the Bush team came to office. The link: http://www.newamericancentury.org/

Kind of old news isn't it? Where were you when we were debating this topic two years ago? You could have saved yourself from buying books of authors who agree with you.

Cowperson

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Yup Cow, PNAC is something to be just swept aside. When the fringe element get into a position of power like they are its okay to laugh it off like that. Use your head for something other than a seat cushion buddy. I know its really hard for you an all, but pull your head out of your ass and tell me how it is a good thing when you have a bunch of self proclaimed militarists (who themselves dodged the draft and refused to serve) with visions of exporting their version of Democracy, throgh military might, running the show? National strength though military might? Jesus, that's just what the Nazi's believed in you moron! You're going to tell me that having an organization that promotes the ideals of meddling in other's affairs as a methodology for promoting global stability is a good thing?

The scary thing is that these clowns are following the same frame work the Nazi's used as well. They've whipped the nation into a patriotic fever and call down anyone who disagrees with them as being unpatriotic and an enemy of the state. They've cornered the media into not speaking against them for fear of being branded liberals and enemies of the state. They've got a plan of how they are going to conquer the Middle East and they're working towards that. The focus then turns to the Far East and a standoff with N. Korea and China. They are going to mach on spreading the "American Dream" of Capitalism and Democrasy to the unwashed masses. This is going to turn out good in what way?

[Cowperson]

Originally posted by Lanny_MacDonald@Sep 5 2004, 05:45 PM
Yup Cow, PNAC is something to be just swept aside. When the fringe element get into a position of power like they are its okay to laugh it off like that. Use your head for something other than a seat cushion buddy. I know its really hard for you an all, but pull your head out of your ass and tell me how it is a good thing when you have a bunch of self proclaimed militarists (who themselves dodged the draft and refused to serve) with visions of exporting their version of Democracy, throgh military might, running the show? National strength though military might? Jesus, that's just what the Nazi's believed in you moron! You're going to tell me that having an organization that promotes the ideals of meddling in other's affairs as a methodology for promoting global stability is a good thing?

The scary thing is that these clowns are following the same frame work the Nazi's used as well. They've whipped the nation into a patriotic fever and call down anyone who disagrees with them as being unpatriotic and an enemy of the state. They've cornered the media into not speaking against them for fear of being branded liberals and enemies of the state. They've got a plan of how they are going to conquer the Middle East and they're working towards that. The focus then turns to the Far East and a standoff with N. Korea and China. They are going to mach on spreading the "American Dream" of Capitalism and Democrasy to the unwashed masses. This is going to turn out good in what way?

Who's sweeping it aside? I was the one who brought it up in case you didn't notice.

I was just overly concerned about your time management skills and wanted to save you all that typing when you were copying stuff out of your books.

In terms of your original premise, you've said that if people "knew all the facts about what went on" in terms of the PNAC agenda, then they would never have voted for the Bush/Cheney ticket.

I would argue that knowing the PNAC agenda might have made the average American more liable to vote for Bush/Cheney in 2000.

In fact, by your own admission you've indicated that the only answer the average American has to a foreign problem is "nuke 'em" so its a little far-fetched on your part to suggest knowledge of PNAC and its agenda would alter votes massively towards the doves.

Actually, it looks like we agree on that.

Cowperson

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Time management skills? Hmmmm, aren't you the rocket surgeon who brought up the PNAC two years ago? Two years AFTER an election? Seems YOU might be the one with the time management skill issue. Nice to bring up an election issue (as you put it) two years after the election.

The funny thing is that during the 2000 election this would not even have been an issue, since none of the appointments (Abrams, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, Khalilizad, etc.) had been made. So unless you KNEW these appointments were going to be made it would be extremely hard to make that an election issue? Well, we are talking about Cowperson here, and Cowperson does know everything, so I guess it isn't much of a stretch for you to make this an election issue before the fact.



So I guess you are saying that the obvious connection between the PNAC and the Bush Administration should be ignored because they are already in office? The corruption and the illegal dealings are okay because these guys are already in office and that makes them unproachable? Makes sense. More brillance from the bovine party!



You're sounding very much like the apologists that were rampant during the late 30's when the Nazi's were building up to their sweep across Europe. No harm in allowing a bunch of fanatics access to a strong military. Oh, and don't worry about those nasty Weapons of Mass Destruction that these looney tunes have access to, they wouldn't use them unless they really had to. Wait, what's that sound? Oh nothing, just the fanatical right goose stepping their way around the globe! Maybe you can find a web site or a link about the Nazi buildup and learn something on the subject. God knows we'd hate to have you turn to a book and read something that actually had some fact checking done on it (not like 95% of the web sites out there).

<-- using one of these makes it okay to be a condesending prick, right Cow?