The Future Looks Bright: Nemisz and Backlund win on Sunday

[Azure]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

I guess we'll find out pretty soon then - with those numbers, the kid should only have enough time for a cup of coffee in the minors...a year tops right?.

Which isn't fair.

There are a couple really good players on a really good team with a really good scouting staff and development program that took a lot longer than 2 years to develop.

The team would be the Detroit Red Wings. The players? Well, I'm sure you know who I'm talking about.

[johnnyluv]

How bad was Nemisz's injury in the playoffs? I wonder if his skating when fully healthy might be better than what we saw in the Memorial Cup - which wasn't all that bad.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by Azure

Which isn't fair.

There are a couple really good players on a really good team with a really good scouting staff and development program that took a lot longer than 2 years to develop.

The team would be the Detroit Red Wings. The players? Well, I'm sure you know who I'm talking about.

euros take longer because they have to adjust to the NA game.

I am not the one saying this guy is an elite player - I think his upside is less than what others are saying it is...

I would imagine that 3 years in the minors at most would be a determinant of whether a guy is going to make it in the NHL.

Heck, even in tonight's philly/mtl, there are a couple of players that spent <1 in the minors and now are in the bigs: Giroux and PK Subban and Backlund didn't spend the full year in the minors either.

its not as rare or limited to lottery picks as some make it out to be.

[Vulcan]

All I can say is that he's progressing fine so far. His skating has improved, he's defensively responsible, his point totals have been good and he's a winner. Nobody can say how he'll do next year but if he continues to progress, he'll be a Flame sooner than later.

[bigtmac19]

Originally Posted by johnnyluv

How bad was Nemisz's injury in the playoffs? I wonder if his skating when fully healthy might be better than what we saw in the Memorial Cup - which wasn't all that bad.

It was very bad, got cut by a skate in the thigh, nicked a muscle, it took 45 stitches to close. He had a pretty long recovery, I'm sure he lost a lot of leg strength over that time.

His skating over this past season was a huge improvement from last year, but he did suffer a setback with the injury.

I had a great time watching Nemisz this year, I'm really excited for his future with the Flames, I'm really going to miss him next year on the Spits!

Thanks Nemo!!

[dobbles]

Originally Posted by Azure

Which isn't fair.

There are a couple really good players on a really good team with a really good scouting staff and development program that took a lot longer than 2 years to develop.

The team would be the Detroit Red Wings. The players? Well, I'm sure you know who I'm talking about.

not sure if that is really an apt comparison though. many of their guys that spend several years in the minors/europe are the low round picks that they develop into talent. additionally, detroit often doesn't even have 1st round picks that are more likely to make the team within a couple years of being drafted. i do agree in general detroit does seem to take their time with players, but it can often be for different reasons. also, their system is prone to mistakes. kyle quincey is a good example of someone they kept down there too long and never really got a shot succeed there. i think he definitely turned out to be better than guys they kept like lebda and meech. anywho, i digress... always trying to turn threads into wings discussions!

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

I am countering your opinion about what is and is not a "relative comparison" as you called it. I've long maintained the WJCs are not the best way to assess any prospect - so this is nothing new for me or specific to Nemisz.

The fact is that when it comes to prospect point totals are less important than assessing the raw skills and abilities with an aim to try and guess how they will translate to the next level.

The fact that he didn't score much at the WJCs really doesn't matter much at all in the long-term.

It wasn't his lack of point production that worried me in the WJ's, it was his inability to keep up with most of the players on the ice.

This comes back to his skating.. he was playing with the best of the best, against the best of the best, and he looked out of place a lot.

I got to watch every Canada game live and of course I had eyes glued to Nemisz, any time the puck was down low or in front of the net, he dominated. Any time he was required to play the puck away from the boards area or actually skate to keep up with the play he always seemed a step or two behind.

I imagine this will be his main area of improvement over the summer, he has the package to make it in the big leagues, just needs to be more nimble on his feet.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

It wasn't his lack of point production that worried me in the WJ's, it was his inability to keep up with most of the players on the ice.

This comes back to his skating.. he was playing with the best of the best, against the best of the best, and he looked out of place a lot.

I got to watch every Canada game live and of course I had eyes glued to Nemisz, any time the puck was down low or in front of the net, he dominated. Any time he was required to play the puck away from the boards area or actually skate to keep up with the play he always seemed a step or two behind.

I imagine this will be his main area of improvement over the summer, he has the package to make it in the big leagues, just needs to be more nimble on his feet.

Yup - and I have a ton more respect for a post like this with actual analysis from someone that watched the player as opposed to people talking about his point totals.

[JustAnotherGuy]

Originally Posted by Freeway

.....

Who says the Flames don't have any good prospects?

.....

Okay. They have two good prospects.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Yup - and I have a ton more respect for a post like this with actual analysis from someone that watched the player as opposed to people talking about his point totals.

zing!

hey, fair enough...sometimes people don't have anything but point totals to go one and scouting assessments made by other people.

Like i said, I hope the kid turns out, but I'll keep my optimism in check until i see him in the NHL.

[nemanja2306]

Originally Posted by JustAnotherGuy

Okay. They have two good prospects.

Pelech? Irving? Erixon? Howse? Wahl? Negrin?

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

zing!
.

Wasn't intended to be a shot directed at you specifically....just about a general over-reliance on points and stats when it comes to prospects.

With Nemisz specifically I find it funny because he was probably at best a 50/50 shot to even get on the WJC team. I imagine if he missed - people wouldn't be as down on him as they are since he made the team but didn't rip it up.

I'm not saying the guy will be a front line player. If I was pressed for an answer I would say he's going to be a third line player but one that can provide some offense from the bottom 6, play on the PP and in general be a guy fans love for his overall game.

I think Flames fans are sooooo desperate to have a premiere prospect that anyone who isn't that is being dismissed too quickly.

[dash_pinched]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

I think Flames fans are sooooo desperate to have a premiere prospect that anyone who isn't that is being dismissed too quickly.

I think there's quite a bit of truth in that statement. Maybe I was being too harsh earlier, but I've watched quite a bit of him at the WJC, in the OHL, and at the Memorial Cup, and based on what I've seen, he has a lot of work to do.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by dash_pinched

I think there's quite a bit of truth in that statement. Maybe I was being too harsh earlier, but I've watched quite a bit of him at the WJC, in the OHL, and at the Memorial Cup, and based on what I've seen, he has a lot of work to do.

I agree he's very raw - but he's also a coachable kid with a lot of the right physical tools to build from.

He's not a guy that will step into the lineup next year for sure. But long-term I think he's an NHL player of some variety.

[Johnny Rotten]

I'm not saying Nemisz will be another Jarome Iginla, but I remember hearing(not by many people mind you, but by a few people) in Jarome's first few years, that "Jarome couldn't skate!" Or, "Great shot, but he can't skate."

I think there is no doubt that Jarome was ahead of where Nemisz is at this age, but some guys of Nemisz's build take longer to "fill out" and gain coordination skills.

I think we'll have to see how much he improves in strength and coordination, first over the summer, and secondly over the next year or two.

Two things he does have going for him though are his size and shot. Hopefully, his coachability and work ethic will improve his skating.

I also vaguely remember the day the FLames drafted Nemisz, and hearing Tod Button tell Rob Kerr that the Flames had their skating coach (Barry Karn) take a look at Nemisz to see if it was possible for him to improve his skating. And I think the answer was positive. (Although, I'd like to hear that conversation again because I don't remember it fully...)

Anyway, I'd rather have someone of Nemisz's ability than Rico Fata who WAS a fast skater, but that was about it.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Wasn't intended to be a shot directed at you specifically....just about a general over-reliance on points and stats when it comes to prospects.

With Nemisz specifically I find it funny because he was probably at best a 50/50 shot to even get on the WJC team. I imagine if he missed - people wouldn't be as down on him as they are since he made the team but didn't rip it up.

I'm not saying the guy will be a front line player. If I was pressed for an answer I would say he's going to be a third line player but one that can provide some offense from the bottom 6, play on the PP and in general be a guy fans love for his overall game.

I think Flames fans are sooooo desperate to have a premiere prospect that anyone who isn't that is being dismissed too quickly.

no worries Jiri - I think that the message board is good if people don't take themselves too seriously anyways...it's all good

For the record, I think Backlund and Erixon could be top players (top 6 forward and top 3 D respectively)...I admit to some bias with Nemisz, as Calgary has always looked for the 'next Gary Roberts' sort to speak. But to this point, they haven't been able to find nor develop him...just gun shy with the this type of player I guess.

edit - jarome would fall into this category, even though he didn't spend time in the minors and we didn't draft him, he was developed by the big club.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Azure

Which isn't fair.

There are a couple really good players on a really good team with a really good scouting staff and development program that took a lot longer than 2 years to develop.

The team would be the Detroit Red Wings. The players? Well, I'm sure you know who I'm talking about.

Yeah, and every Stanley Cup winner post-lockout that isn't Detroit has had key players on their rookie contract. Bringing guys about slowly is no longer the way to go, if only for cap reasons. After three pro years players get close to market value (although there should still be a sizeable discount for RFA, somehow there often isn't).

[MJM]

Originally Posted by dash_pinched

I think there's quite a bit of truth in that statement. Maybe I was being too harsh earlier, but I've watched quite a bit of him at the WJC, in the OHL, and at the Memorial Cup, and based on what I've seen, he has a lot of work to do.

I've seen him play about 5 OHL games this year, and each every time I've come away with the thought he was nothing more than an above average junior player whose stats are inflated from playing on a team that is ten notches above any other junior team in the country. I seriously question whether this guy will ever play in the NHL, which is unacceptable for a first round pick given our lack of prospects.

Anyone who can honestly say that they watched the World Juniors and didn't notice he couldn't keep up with the play, has their Flames glasses on. He was the exact same way in my opinion at the Memorial Cup when the competition got tougher. People can point to his injury, but I think it's more than that.

Half the problem with Nemisz, is the hype Sutter through out there to deflect attention away from his piss-poor drafting record. This kid was setup to fail with the expectations put on him.

[Pastiche]

Hmm, I don't think the future looks 'bright.' When you have of the worst prospect pools in the league there's not alot to warrant putting your sunglasses on.

The future looks 'better' in that it looks like we have two prospects who *might* be able to crack the top 6. And a defenceman who *might* be a top 3 guy in Erixon.

Still lots of questions on Backlund though. If he's as blue-chip as we get then that's not bright. The guy's ultimate ceiling is something like 80 points a year and there's long odds on that. Odds are more on Backlund being a Marco Sturm or Nik Hagman than a Daniel Sedin.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Pastiche

Hmm, I don't think the future looks 'bright.' When you have of the worst prospect pools in the league there's not alot to warrant putting your sunglasses on.

The future looks 'better' in that it looks like we have two prospects who *might* be able to crack the top 6. And a defenceman who *might* be a top 3 guy in Erixon.

Still lots of questions on Backlund though. If he's as blue-chip as we get then that's not bright. The guy's ultimate ceiling is something like 80 points a year and there's long odds on that. Odds are more on Backlund being a Marco Sturm or Nik Hagman than a Daniel Sedin.

Pessimism running rampant as always. I'm trying to remember the last time the Flames had so many decent CHL prospects going pro at the same time.....and I can't. Not only that, but all of these prospects had successful junior careers with very good organizations. While that doesn't gaurantee their success at the pro level, it's nothing to scoff at.

Neimisz - An important part of a back to back Memorial Cup championship team, and quite possibly one of the best Junior teams ever.

Wahl - A top scorer and leader on a very successful string of teams. Also a Memorial Cup champion.

Bouma - Captain of one of the most consistant WHL teams in his time there. Not a big time scorer, but obviously alot of character and leadership qualities. Also, a Memorial Cup champion.

Brodie & Cameron - Both key parts of a team who registered one of the best records in CHL history.

These are all really solid young hockey players, who have learned what it takes to be part of a winning organization at the junior level. Does it make them surefire NHL prospects? No, but you think it would atleast put the majority of Flames fans in the "Cautiously Optimistic" category as opposed to full on Pessimism.