Have the Flames Scouts Really Drafted that Poorly??

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

Canadian junior players can't do that. They play (18 year old draftees) two years more in junior or straight to the NHL. It's the law.

True enough. I was thinking of the season following the actual draft year (i.e.: 09-10 for a 2008 draft) and worded that pretty poorly.

Originally Posted by I_H8_Crawford

One thing is - we probably will never know how good the drafted players really are under Sutter since he never likes giving them a chance.

Let's not forget that if it weren't for a completely freak injury to Langkow, Backlund doesn't get the chance to show he can be a top-6 NHLer.

About as likely as you adding anything more than mindless hate to a conversation, eh?

Kobasew, Moss, Nystrom, Lombardi, McElhinney, Phaneuf, Prust and Boyd all got their chance under Sutter.

[boogerz]

It's no secret Sutter loves safe picks, but whenever he choses a higher risk player, poor development ruins them. Luckily the drafting hasn't looked too bad in the past 2-3 years, but lets see if the Flames can manage to develop those players.

By low risk I mean Negrin, Wahl, Pelech
By high risk I'm talkin' Nemisz, Brodie, Howse

[Weiser Wonder]

Originally Posted by boogerz

It's no secret Sutter loves safe picks, but whenever he choses a higher risk player, poor development ruins them. Luckily the drafting hasn't looked too bad in the past 2-3 years, but lets see if the Flames can manage to develop those players.

By low risk I mean Negrin, Wahl, Pelech
By high risk I'm talkin' Nemisz, Brodie, Howse

Those players seem to be sorted into high risk and low risk randomly.

[Cactus Jack]

Originally Posted by Imported_Aussie

Another thing that has impacted the flames drafting is organizational needs. The team was trading picks for proven players and not drafting high due to the team being in the mix each year. Also, with a shallow prospect pool and the need for stability there, flashier picks were passed over for functional pieces.

So please tell me, since 2003, which of the picks were "functional pieces" for the Flames? If you mean Boyd seeing scant 4th line ice time for a few years, Pardy often riding the pine and Prust in and out of the lineup, I wouldn't call those pieces functional. And those are the only ones to make it. Sutter and Backlund are too young to pass judgement on, much like the last 2-3 drafts, but there are 4 other drafts we have literally seen nothing from.

[oldschoolcalgary]

for me, the issue is that Calgary tend to stay in the "low risk, low reward" category when it comes to picks...generally speaking of course.

but 'functional pieces' are a dime a dozen on the free agency market; what you don't find is high ceiling, high reward players available (unless you are willing to trade for them of course)...often, these guys are about to get a pay raise anyways, not on some rookie contract.

high risk picks bust for sure, but so do the so called low risk picks...seems to me that the Flames could use and infusion of skill into the system still. Not sure whether the guys mentioned will pan out, but skill is always something to coveted as an organization (at least it should be)...

[Doc Hudson]

Originally Posted by Cactus Jack

Virtually every other team has drafted an impact player outside of the top 10 picks since 03 in a draft except Calgary.

Since there is no way I am going to check this, could you please provide a list demonstrating your point, otherwise it is not trustworthy. I am actually just curious.

Ok, too curious, and after completing this I call your opinion busted by the facts.

Number of teams with impact players post #10 picks since 2004: 20
Number of teams with impact players post Flames first pick since 2004: 9

Year - Impact Players outside top ten - Team
(bold indicates picks after the Flames first pick)

2005 - Kopitar - Kings
2005 - Rask - Leafs, now Boston
2005 - Oshie - Blues
2005 - Downie - Flyers, now Lightning
2005 - Bergfors - Devils, now Thrashers*
2005 - Cogliano - Oilers*
2005 - Neal - Stars
2005 - Latendresse - Canadians, now Wild*
2005 - Raymond - Nucks*
2005 - Letang - Penguins*
2005 - Quick - Kings*
2005 - Yandle - Yotes
2006 - Giroux - Flyers
2006 - Varlamov - Caps
2006 - Kulemin - Leafs*
2006 - Lucic - Bruins
2006 - Mason - Jackets
2006 - Clutterbuck - Wild
2006 - Stalberg - Leafs*
2007 - Sutter - Canes
2007 - Perron - Blues
2007 - Simmonds - Kings
2007 - Benn - Stars
2008 - Myers - Sabres
2008 - Boychuk - Canes
2008 - Karlsson - Sens
2008 - Del Zotto - Isles

* indicates players I do not think are impact, but others might.

This is one of the biggest misconceptions on CP, one that frustrates the hell out of me. The chances of a player outside the top ten becoming a good player is marginal. So, if a trade is made and no picks come back (Phaneuf), it is only a bad deal if they could have been top 10 picks. Otherwise, it is almost a sure bust! It is almost luck for these players to make the NHL, the right circumstances, and even more so for the "impact player". Just look at Latendresse, he was not an impact player in Montreal, but was after the trade to the Wild... will he be next year, who knows. Also, 2005 is an anomolous year and VASTLY inflates the numbers of teams with impact players outside the top ten.

Please, when posting about draft picks, it really pays to do a little research. Even just using http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_NHL_Entry_Draft

Just as if posting about salary cap numbers one should consult capgeek, or somewhere. Opinions are great, but opinions that look like facts are dangerous and often perpetuate on the internet. The Flames bad draft record under Sutter is one of those myths. Sure, we don't have a great prospect, but it is because our team doesn't suck enough. Pick your poison!

If I missed players, please point them out.

[Cactus Jack]

Originally Posted by Doc Hudson

Since there is no way I am going to check this, could you please provide a list demonstrating your point, otherwise it is not trustworthy. I am actually just curious.

Ok, too curious, and after completing this I call your opinion busted by the facts.

Number of teams with impact players post #10 picks since 2004: 20
Number of teams with impact players post Flames first pick since 2004: 9

Year - Impact Players outside top ten - Team
(bold indicates picks after the Flames first pick)

2005 - Kopitar - Kings
2005 - Rask - Leafs, now Boston
2005 - Oshie - Blues
2005 - Downie - Flyers, now Lightning
2005 - Bergfors - Devils, now Thrashers*
2005 - Cogliano - Oilers*
2005 - Neal - Stars
2005 - Latendresse - Canadians, now Wild*
2005 - Raymond - Nucks*
2005 - Letang - Penguins*
2005 - Quick - Kings*
2005 - Yandle - Yotes
2006 - Giroux - Flyers
2006 - Varlamov - Caps
2006 - Kulemin - Leafs*
2006 - Lucic - Bruins
2006 - Mason - Jackets
2006 - Clutterbuck - Wild
2006 - Stalberg - Leafs*
2007 - Sutter - Canes
2007 - Perron - Blues
2007 - Simmonds - Kings
2007 - Benn - Stars
2008 - Myers - Sabres
2008 - Boychuk - Canes
2008 - Karlsson - Sens
2008 - Del Zotto - Isles

* indicates players I do not think are impact, but others might.

This is one of the biggest misconceptions on CP, one that frustrates the hell out of me. The chances of a player outside the top ten becoming a good player is marginal. So, if a trade is made and no picks come back (Phaneuf), it is only a bad deal if they could have been top 10 picks. Otherwise, it is almost a sure bust! It is almost luck for these players to make the NHL, the right circumstances, and even more so for the "impact player". Just look at Latendresse, he was not an impact player in Montreal, but was after the trade to the Wild... will he be next year, who knows. Also, 2005 is an anomolous year and VASTLY inflates the numbers of teams with impact players outside the top ten.

Please, when posting about draft picks, it really pays to do a little research. Even just using http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_NHL_Entry_Draft

Just as if posting about salary cap numbers one should consult capgeek, or somewhere. Opinions are great, but opinions that look like facts are dangerous and often perpetuate on the internet. The Flames bad draft record under Sutter is one of those myths. Sure, we don't have a great prospect, but it is because our team doesn't suck enough. Pick your poison!

If I missed players, please point them out.

I didn't organize this by year like you did, but few the vast majority of these are from 2003 and beyond, and very few are prior to 2000 when Todd Button was already in place. As GM I blame Sutter for the draft record and keeping the same head scout around, but since Todd has been around a decade and longer, I look at 2000 and beyond as evidence of poor scouting. Not everyone on this list is a Green or Weber but even players like Eric Fehr make our drafting look bad.

My list includes only players with their same team so players like Latendresse that have gone on to make a difference elsewhere aren't counted.

Here is a list of drafted players that are good to elite outside of the top 10 in their draft years and undrafted FAs. I know we have Giordano, but you'll fid other teams have more.

Anaheim - Getzlaf (19), Perry (28), Hiller (undrafted FA)
Atlanta - Enstrom (8th rounder), Little (12th)
Boston - 2nd rounders (Lucic, Bergeron, Krejci)
Buffalo - Miller (5th rounder) , Roy (2nd rounder), Pominville (2nd round), Stafford (13), Myers (12), Butler (4th round), Tallinder (2nd rounder)
Carolina - Sutter (11), Ward (25)
Chicago - Keith (2nd round), Seabrook (14), Hjalmarsson (4th round), Brouwer (7th rounder), Byfuglien (8th rounder), Bolland (2nd round)
Colorado - Stasny (2nd round), Stewart (18), Galiardi (2nd round), Liles (5th round), O'Rilley (2nd round)
Columbus - Mason (3rd rounder)
Dallas - Ericksson (2nd round), Neal (2nd round), Morrow (25), Benn (5th round), Ott (25), Niskanen (28)
Detroit - Datsyuk (6th round), Zetterberg (7th round), Lidstrom (3rd round), Holmstrom (10th round), Filppula (3rd round), Helm (5th round), Kronawll (29), Ericksson (9th round), Franzen (3rd round), Abdelkader (2nd round)
Edmonton - Cogliano (25), Horcoff (4th round), Hemsky (13)
Florida - Booth (2nd round)
LA - Frolov (20), Brown (13), Simmonds (2nd round), Quick (3rd round)
Montreal - Plekanec (3rd round), Markov (6th round), Halak (9th round)
Nashville - Erat (7th round), Hornqvist (7th round), Weber (2nd round), Hamhius (12), Rinne (8th round)
NJ - Clarkson (undrafted free agent), Greene (undrafted free agent), Zajac (20), Parise (17), Martin (2nd round)
NYR - Lundqvist (7th round), Callahan (4th round), Dubinsky (2nd round), Del Zotto (20), Staal (12), Girardi (undrafted free agent)
Ottawa - Fisher (2nd round), Foligno (28), Volchenkov (24), Karlsson (15), Elliot (9th round)
Phili - Carter (11), Richards (24), Giroux (22)
Phoenix - Yandle (4th round)
Pittsburgh - Letang (3rd round), Goligoski (2nd round), Orpik (18), Talbot (8th round)
St. Louis - Backes (2nd rounder), 25-29 (Oshie, Berglund, Perron)
SJ - Vlasic (2nd round), Clowe (6th round), Pavelski (7th round)
TB - Ranger (6th round)
Toronto - Kulemin (2nd round), Bozak (undrafted free agent), Stahlberg (6th round)
Vancouver - Kesler (23), Burrows (undrafted free agent), Raymond (2nd round), Edler (3rd round), Bieksa (5th round).
Washington - Green (2nd round), Semin (13), Varlamov (23), Schultz (26), Fehr (18)

[sworkhard]

Originally Posted by Cactus Jack

I didn't organize this by year like you did, but few the vast majority of these are from 2003 and beyond, and very few are prior to 2000 when Todd Button was already in place. As GM I blame Sutter for the draft record and keeping the same head scout around, but since Todd has been around a decade and longer, I look at 2000 and beyond as evidence of poor scouting. Not everyone on this list is a Green or Weber but even players like Eric Fehr make our drafting look bad.

My list includes only players with their same team so players like Latendresse that have gone on to make a difference elsewhere aren't counted.

In 2007 or 2008, there was a major overhaul of the scouting staff. Since then, the picks have generally been better, but, of course, mostly haven't made the NHL yet so the results are still up in the air.

[Johnny Rotten]

Originally Posted by sworkhard

In 2007 or 2008, there was a major overhaul of the scouting staff. Since then, the picks have generally been better, but, of course, mostly haven't made the NHL yet so the results are still up in the air.

I agree with this. It will be interesting to see how some of the Flames picks in the past 2-3 years will pan out. So far, it looks a little more promising than the three-five years before that. Time will tell...

Also, the question will be how much of a chance some of these young guys (Nemisz, Wahl, Brodie, Backlund, etc.) get?

[sworkhard]

Originally Posted by Johnny Rotten

I agree with this. It will be interesting to see how some of the Flames picks in the past 2-3 years will pan out. So far, it looks a little more promising than the three-five years before that. Time will tell...

Also, the question will be how much of a chance some of these young guys (Nemisz, Wahl, Brodie, Backlund, etc.) get?

I think if Brent Sutter sticks around, they will get a really good chance. I think the thing with young players is you have to have patience as they don't always become stars overnight, but as long as they show they are dedicated to improving their game, year after year, I think they will get a chance. Even Dustin Boyd, who I don't think even wanted to be here (just look how long it took to get him signed in the off season), could be a lot better once he's 28 or so. The Sedins weren't top line players when they were 20 either, so people really need to stop complaining when a skilled young player plays on the third line for a few years.

Sutter likes to give all his lines pretty even even strength ice time if he can, and if we can have a young, skilled third line, I think they would be very effective.

I think the comments of players not getting a chance had more to do with young players having to play a lot of defense because they were stuck with pluggers, but a big part of the reason for Backlund's success is that in the AHL he played with those kinds of players, became really good defensively as a result, and, as such, when playing with skilled offensive players, but not so good defensive players, he's looked really good. Being able to be good against the other teams top lines is pretty much a requirement to moving up to the top six. Backlund's been pretty decent against he other teams best defense men (his line, no matter which it is, seems to always apply a lot of pressure), but has been excellent keeping the other teams best lines from scoring. Boyd on the other hand, wasn't able to apply pressure to the other team when playing against their best lines and defensemen, and although pretty good defensively, there were players who played the role better, and as such he was relegated to the third and fourth lines, with a few shifts every game on the upper lines to see if he was having a really good game.

[dfsflamesfan]

Originally Posted by Cactus Jack

I didn't organize this by year like you did, but few the vast majority of these are from 2003 and beyond, and very few are prior to 2000 when Todd Button was already in place. As GM I blame Sutter for the draft record and keeping the same head scout around, but since Todd has been around a decade and longer, I look at 2000 and beyond as evidence of poor scouting. Not everyone on this list is a Green or Weber but even players like Eric Fehr make our drafting look bad.

My list includes only players with their same team so players like Latendresse that have gone on to make a difference elsewhere aren't counted.

Here is a list of drafted players that are good to elite outside of the top 10 in their draft years and undrafted FAs. I know we have Giordano, but you'll fid other teams have more.

Anaheim - Getzlaf (19), Perry (28), Hiller (undrafted FA)
Atlanta - Enstrom (8th rounder), Little (12th)
Boston - 2nd rounders (Lucic, Bergeron, Krejci)
Buffalo - Miller (5th rounder) , Roy (2nd rounder), Pominville (2nd round), Stafford (13), Myers (12), Butler (4th round), Tallinder (2nd rounder)
Carolina - Sutter (11), Ward (25)
Chicago - Keith (2nd round), Seabrook (14), Hjalmarsson (4th round), Brouwer (7th rounder), Byfuglien (8th rounder), Bolland (2nd round)
Colorado - Stasny (2nd round), Stewart (18), Galiardi (2nd round), Liles (5th round), O'Rilley (2nd round)
Columbus - Mason (3rd rounder)
Dallas - Ericksson (2nd round), Neal (2nd round), Morrow (25), Benn (5th round), Ott (25), Niskanen (28)
Detroit - Datsyuk (6th round), Zetterberg (7th round), Lidstrom (3rd round), Holmstrom (10th round), Filppula (3rd round), Helm (5th round), Kronawll (29), Ericksson (9th round), Franzen (3rd round), Abdelkader (2nd round)
Edmonton - Cogliano (25), Horcoff (4th round), Hemsky (13)
Florida - Booth (2nd round)
LA - Frolov (20), Brown (13), Simmonds (2nd round), Quick (3rd round)
Montreal - Plekanec (3rd round), Markov (6th round), Halak (9th round)
Nashville - Erat (7th round), Hornqvist (7th round), Weber (2nd round), Hamhius (12), Rinne (8th round)
NJ - Clarkson (undrafted free agent), Greene (undrafted free agent), Zajac (20), Parise (17), Martin (2nd round)
NYR - Lundqvist (7th round), Callahan (4th round), Dubinsky (2nd round), Del Zotto (20), Staal (12), Girardi (undrafted free agent)
Ottawa - Fisher (2nd round), Foligno (28), Volchenkov (24), Karlsson (15), Elliot (9th round)
Phili - Carter (11), Richards (24), Giroux (22)
Phoenix - Yandle (4th round)
Pittsburgh - Letang (3rd round), Goligoski (2nd round), Orpik (18), Talbot (8th round)
St. Louis - Backes (2nd rounder), 25-29 (Oshie, Berglund, Perron)
SJ - Vlasic (2nd round), Clowe (6th round), Pavelski (7th round)
TB - Ranger (6th round)
Toronto - Kulemin (2nd round), Bozak (undrafted free agent), Stahlberg (6th round)
Vancouver - Kesler (23), Burrows (undrafted free agent), Raymond (2nd round), Edler (3rd round), Bieksa (5th round).
Washington - Green (2nd round), Semin (13), Varlamov (23), Schultz (26), Fehr (18)

Anyone else feel bad for how bad Florida has picked?

[Redliner]

Originally Posted by dfsflamesfan

Anyone else feel bad for how bad Florida has picked?

Or Columbus, and I'd dare to say that both of those teams have enjoyed a much more advantageous draft position than the Flames for the last decade.

[Doc Hudson]

Originally Posted by Cactus Jack

Anaheim - Getzlaf (19), Perry (28), Hiller (undrafted FA)
Atlanta - Enstrom (8th rounder), Little (12th)
Boston - 2nd rounders (Lucic, Bergeron, Krejci)
Buffalo - Miller (5th rounder) , Roy (2nd rounder), Pominville (2nd round), Stafford (13), Myers (12), Butler (4th round), Tallinder (2nd rounder)
Carolina - Sutter (11), Ward (25)
Chicago - Keith (2nd round), Seabrook (14), Hjalmarsson (4th round), Brouwer (7th rounder), Byfuglien (8th rounder), Bolland (2nd round)
Colorado - Stasny (2nd round), Stewart (18), Galiardi (2nd round), Liles (5th round), O'Rilley (2nd round)
Columbus - Mason (3rd rounder)
Dallas - Ericksson (2nd round), Neal (2nd round), Morrow (25), Benn (5th round), Ott (25), Niskanen (28)
Detroit - Datsyuk (6th round), Zetterberg (7th round), Lidstrom (3rd round), Holmstrom (10th round), Filppula (3rd round), Helm (5th round), Kronawll (29), Ericksson (9th round), Franzen (3rd round), Abdelkader (2nd round)
Edmonton - Cogliano (25), Horcoff (4th round), Hemsky (13)
Florida - Booth (2nd round)
LA - Frolov (20), Brown (13), Simmonds (2nd round), Quick (3rd round)
Montreal - Plekanec (3rd round), Markov (6th round), Halak (9th round)
Nashville - Erat (7th round), Hornqvist (7th round), Weber (2nd round), Hamhius (12), Rinne (8th round)
NJ - Clarkson (undrafted free agent), Greene (undrafted free agent), Zajac (20), Parise (17), Martin (2nd round)
NYR - Lundqvist (7th round), Callahan (4th round), Dubinsky (2nd round), Del Zotto (20), Staal (12), Girardi (undrafted free agent)
Ottawa - Fisher (2nd round), Foligno (28), Volchenkov (24), Karlsson (15), Elliot (9th round)
Phili - Carter (11), Richards (24), Giroux (22)
Phoenix - Yandle (4th round)
Pittsburgh - Letang (3rd round), Goligoski (2nd round), Orpik (18), Talbot (8th round)
St. Louis - Backes (2nd rounder), 25-29 (Oshie, Berglund, Perron)
SJ - Vlasic (2nd round), Clowe (6th round), Pavelski (7th round)
TB - Ranger (6th round)
Toronto - Kulemin (2nd round), Bozak (undrafted free agent), Stahlberg (6th round)
Vancouver - Kesler (23), Burrows (undrafted free agent), Raymond (2nd round), Edler (3rd round), Bieksa (5th round).
Washington - Green (2nd round), Semin (13), Varlamov (23), Schultz (26), Fehr (18)

First off you made this way too open ended. But, I'm game. There are 100 drafted names there. Since 2000 there have been 8 drafts, lets make it 10 since you did use players drafted that long ago. 7 rounds of 30 picks is 210 picks per draft, 2100 over 10 drafts. Chances of impact player are 100/2100 = 4.7%

One can see why some teams have done poorly. Of course, this is with each pick, so the more picks you have, the better odds of getting an impact player. But, lets not pretend there is not alot of luck involved.

Also, there are only a handful of players on your list that I would consider actual impact players (for example, Gretlaf and Perry are definately impact players, as are the Detroit 4, but most are just decent NHLers much the same as Lombardi and other Flames picks), and were drafted after Calgary's first pick in the draft. It is really just a crapshoot. Noone, unless they use a solid statistical analysis (which I am not wasting my time on), will convince me otherwise.

[Nuje]

Originally Posted by Johnny Rotten

I'm not denying that (I CAN'T deny that), but I also look at a team that has primarily gone with veterans-seemingly a team choice ever since the lockout. Not to mention that the Flames have traded away a few second round picks. Is that really the scouts fault?

Perhaps it's not the scouts fault in either case, but while I think Sutter doesn't give the kids as much of a chance as he should (when, for instance, the difference between an established player and a young player at camp is negligible), the scouts have yet to select players in the first round that give the GM no choice. Maybe Darryl just always ruins every single prospect, but I highly doubt that that's the case. I think him, and the scouting staff need to be replaced.

Originally Posted by Johnny Rotten

Also, a 2005 pick would only be 23 yrs. old this year. Isn't that a little early to see if a guy is going to be a player or not? I guess the point I'm really trying to make is How does any sports journalist sitting in an office in Calgary really know the potential of the likes of Wahl, Howse, Erickkson etc.

Only in Darryl's world is 23 early. In today's game, devoid of the clutching and grabbing of the old NHL, endurance is more important than in many other sports, and more important than it ever was. Take a look at how early soccer players start to decline. The NHL isn't there, but it's closer than ever.

Also, coaching is better than ever, and players are usually pretty much ready by age 23. If it takes them until 25 (such as, say, Pardy?), they usually are not good, and almost seem to make the NHL as a service award to the farm team.

Originally Posted by Johnny Rotten

And furthermore, speaking of Backlund, IF he becomes becomes a big time point producer, does that erase the picks of Chucko, etc. from people's minds? Not every pick has to be great, but if one does (i.e. Backlund), that can make up for a few not so good picks.

[/quote]
Chucko's pretty long ago, and I'm a fan of Pelech, didn't think Irving was a bad pick at the time, Backlund will likely be good. Then, Nemisz may turn out good, but I really don't see him being more than a 2-3rd liner forward at the moment. Tim Erixon could turn out well. It's early for him still, and harder to gauge European players. I have faith that Brodie and Howse will turn out, and I like the defensive depth in the pool with Erixon, Brodie, Negrin and Pelech. With Bouwmeester (and hopefully Gio too) here for a while, that can be a very effective core in the future. The up-front part bothers me though. It's still early on most of Backlund, Nemisz, Howse and Wahl, and I think Howse especially was a great pick for his draft position, but we've had this sort of optimism as Flames fans before, and it was promptly stomped out. I want to see results, and if not, I want to bring in management and scouting with a history of producing results.

[Flame4Ever]

I can't speak of other leagues as much, but the Flames completely miss the mark when it comes to OHL talent. Other than TJ Brodie, they have been flat out awful.
Nemisz was a very poor pick, especially considerin John Carlson is going to be an impact player in the NHL by next year.

[Cactus Jack]

Originally Posted by Doc Hudson

First off you made this way too open ended. But, I'm game. There are 100 drafted names there. Since 2000 there have been 8 drafts, lets make it 10 since you did use players drafted that long ago. 7 rounds of 30 picks is 210 picks per draft, 2100 over 10 drafts. Chances of impact player are 100/2100 = 4.7%

One can see why some teams have done poorly. Of course, this is with each pick, so the more picks you have, the better odds of getting an impact player. But, lets not pretend there is not alot of luck involved.

Also, there are only a handful of players on your list that I would consider actual impact players (for example, Gretlaf and Perry are definately impact players, as are the Detroit 4, but most are just decent NHLers much the same as Lombardi and other Flames picks), and were drafted after Calgary's first pick in the draft. It is really just a crapshoot. Noone, unless they use a solid statistical analysis (which I am not wasting my time on), will convince me otherwise.

Actually, that list doesn't include the top 10 picks in any draft, so the percentage is even smaller. However, there are tons of high end players on that list and many well above average NHLers. Green, Keith, Perry, Getzlaf, Green, Miller, Bergeron, Stastny, Seabrook, Mason, Morrow, Parise, Hemsky, etc. That's not even mentioning good players like Pavelski, Tyler Myers, Plekanec, Lundqvist, etc. The point is 27 teams have found at least 1 (and most cases several) better players outside of the top 10 than the Flames, who may have found one in Backlund but as it stands now are at 0.

[flamesrule14]

Originally Posted by Flame4Ever

I can't speak of other leagues as much, but the Flames completely miss the mark when it comes to OHL talent. Other than TJ Brodie, they have been flat out awful.
Nemisz was a very poor pick, especially considerin John Carlson is going to be an impact player in the NHL by next year.

Carlson wasn't playing in the OHL during his draft year though.

[Doc Hudson]

Originally Posted by Cactus Jack

Actually, that list doesn't include the top 10 picks in any draft, so the percentage is even smaller. However, there are tons of high end players on that list and many well above average NHLers. Green, Keith, Perry, Getzlaf, Green, Miller, Bergeron, Stastny, Seabrook, Mason, Morrow, Parise, Hemsky, etc. That's not even mentioning good players like Pavelski, Tyler Myers, Plekanec, Lundqvist, etc. The point is 27 teams have found at least 1 (and most cases several) better players outside of the top 10 than the Flames, who may have found one in Backlund but as it stands now are at 0.

It doesn't change the fact that finding this players is pretty much luck. Sure, I concede to your point that Calgary is one of 3 teams that hasn't been lucky enough to have a Renaud, or Ryder, or whoever, be a NHLer. It is clear that the lack of talented entry level contracts puts the team at a serious disadvantage. The time will come, hopefully soon!

[Pointman]

Owners want to have a team that competes every year that means Flames will never draft high. Their scouting and drafting strategies should be adapted accordingly. There are many different ways to do it, like trading for high picks from other teams or spending more on elite scouting staff or going for high risk/high reward types so we could occasionally get an impact player with low pick or whatever. Bottom line is that they just can't keep saying "we never draft in top 10" excuse and do nothing. They will never draft in top 10, they need to deal with it.

[Doc Hudson]

Originally Posted by Pointman

They will never draft in top 10, they need to deal with it.

Let us hope...

right?

I think they may be doing that already (more high risk picks), but it took a while after re-stocking with grinders and d-men. Howse, Bjorklund and Brodie are all "non-Sutter" type picks IMO, all it seems have offensive upside as opposed to the steady big strong d-men we typically add if available or the energy guys he loves so much.