Uh oh, NOAA Calls Rita A Potential Category 5

[KevanGuy]

DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED
CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS OF 165 MPH. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 4 PM CDT ADVISORY.

I forgot to add, to give people an idea of how crazy this is getting, that winds this stronger at this time were basically at 0% chance yesterday. So this thing has really taken off. The scary part is how unpredicatble a storm like this is. It would be pretty unreal if she took at turn north and hit NOLA and the coast up there again.

[Resolute 14]

I've read the same article, arsenal. The argument was that Mann's program was designed to give the answer it gave, regardless of what was input. Exluding the tree rings and coming up with the same results because of a flawed program doesnt constitute support for the science.

Hakan - On the fourth link I provided, the article discusses the mideval warm period, and the mini ice age that followed. If man's polution is causing global warming, why is the average temperature today lower than the average temperature during the mideval warm period? Not to mention that the existence of these two events destroys the hockey stick model.

Now, obviously human pollution in the last century is having an effect - and a considerable one - on the health of our environment. There is all kinds of evidence to support this. However, and despite the link you provided - to which Mann himself is a contributor, so the objectivity of that site is questionable - using the hockey stick as the be-all-and-end-all argument when there are legitimate challenges to it does not appear prudent.

Also, by failing to address it, I trust that you have abandoned the question of whether global warming is the cause of these more severe hurricanes?

[nfotiu]

Originally posted by KevanGuy@Sep 21 2005, 04:41 PM
DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED
CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS OF 165 MPH. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 4 PM CDT ADVISORY.

I forgot to add, to give people an idea of how crazy this is getting, that winds this stronger at this time were basically at 0% chance yesterday. So this thing has really taken off. The scary part is how unpredicatble a storm like this is. It would be pretty unreal if she took at turn north and hit NOLA and the coast up there again.

Seems unlikely that kind of intensity would last long enough to last until landfall.

From my local news:

A hurricane expert in Colorado has some frightening predictions about Hurricane Rita.



Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University is predicting that Rita will be the second worst storm of all time, only behind Katrina.



People in Galveston know how much devastation a category four storm can cause. They've heard about the one that hit in 1900. It killed between 6,000 to 8,000 people and it also destroyed 3,600 buildings.



About 37,000 people lived in Galveston in 1900 -- that number has doubled now. That storm produced winds between 130 to 140 miles an hour.

[Bertuzzied]

Maybe not due to global warming but maybe because it's karma for Bush invading Iraq. At least thats what Al Qaeda is saying. Maybe Osama invented some crazy weather machine like Handy Smurf.

[Devils'Advocate]

(1) Wouldn't it be better to hit New Orleans again? I mean, everything is ALREADY torn apart. If it hits another city, it would be worse, no?

(2) As for the Global Warming, I read some articles from the Canadian Hurricane Centre that said that Nova Scotia should prepare for some nasty storms over the next decade or so. Juan hit a couple years ago and Ophelia just missed last week. It's just that they are stronger storms that are not dying out when passing over what used to be cold water. With water temperatures higher, storms are going to be more ferocious than in the past. Cyclical, man-made, whatever, the CHC has said that warmer waters mean hurricane trouble.

[Devils'Advocate]

Bertuzzied:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/loca...natheory20.html

It's not Osama. According to Scott Stevens, it's the Yakuza that are passed off and creating these hurricanes. I think he should stop with the weather conspiracy theories and get back on the blueline.

[Cowperson]

The Houston Chronicle site has pretty good updates.

http://www.chron.com/#

A rather dramatic story there on rescuing animals at the SPCA shelter in Galveston . . . . there's 80 that have to be left behind and one woman has volunteered to stay with them at risk of her own life, although its a pretty sturdy brick building.

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/m...politan/3363388

On a pet board I frequent, a lady in Houston wants to flee but there are zero hotel rooms anywhere in Texas or Louisiana right now . . . . so she's a little flummoxed as to what to do. Run anyway is probably good advice.

Cowperson

[KevanGuy]

I'm not interested in getting in the debate about what is causeing all this but I just read this interesting article about the NHC and thought some here might be interested.

"The current period of heightened activity could last another 10 to 20 years or more. This increased activity is due to natural cycles of hurricane activity, driven by the Atlantic Ocean itself along with the atmosphere above it," he told the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee's Subcommittee on Disaster Prevention and Prediction.

http://www.businessinsurance.com/cgi...pl?newsId=6367

[RougeUnderoos]

Originally posted by Cowperson@Sep 21 2005, 03:15 PM

. so she's a little flummoxed as to what to do. Run anyway is probably good advice.

That is good advice.

This thing isn't supposed to hit until Friday night or Saturday morning. Even if you are only going 20mph on a crowded highway, you can cover a lot of ground in like 75 hours. I'm sure it'd be pretty easy to get to Kansas in that amount of time. Maybe there's a hotel there?

Even if you have to sleep in your car, or in a tent...

[Mike F]

Originally posted by Snakeeye@Sep 21 2005, 01:51 PM
I've read the same article, arsenal.# The argument was that Mann's program was designed to give the answer it gave, regardless of what was input.# Exluding the tree rings and coming up with the same results because of a flawed program doesnt constitute support for the science.

Hakan - On the fourth link I provided, the article discusses the mideval warm period, and the mini ice age that followed.# If man's polution is causing global warming, why is the average temperature today lower than the average temperature during the mideval warm period?# Not to mention that the existence of these two events destroys the hockey stick model.

Not surprisingly, this isn't the first time the Global Warming debate has come up on this board.

Here is my post from a previous thread:

As you can see in the United Nations' International Panel on Climate Change report, Mann's study was used and relied on, but it was far from the only source of data:

"Taking into account these substantial uncertainties, Mann et al. (1999) concluded that the 1990s were likely to have been the warmest decade, and 1998 the warmest year, of the past millennium for at least the Northern Hemisphere. Jones et al. (1998) came to a similar conclusion from largely independent data and an entirely independent methodology. Crowley and Lowery (2000) reached the similar conclusion that medieval temperatures were no warmer than mid-20th century temperatures. Borehole data (Pollack et al., 1998) independently support this conclusion for the past 500 years..."

From that I'd say that the questions about Mann's work don't blow up the support for climate change the way the article [edit: in the linked thread] implies.

[Hakan]

Just read the link I posted Snakeeye about the critique of Mann. It makes sense. McKittrick has yet to provide a rebuttal.

And about the Hurricanes, in my second post in this thread I said that it looks like intensity and not frequency are affected.

Can I assume you're abandoning your pithy critique of anthropogenic sources as the cause of global warming now?

[Devils'Advocate]

BTW - there are some members of the Devils board that abide in Texas. Apparently the line to buy firearms is much longer than the line to buy gasoline. Don't mess with Texans.

[Resolute 14]

Originally posted by Hakan@Sep 21 2005, 03:03 PM
Just read the link I posted Snakeeye about the critique of Mann. It makes sense. McKittrick has yet to provide a rebuttal.

And about the Hurricanes, in my second post in this thread I said that it looks like intensity and not frequency are affected.

Can I assume you're abandoning your pithy critique of anthropogenic sources as the cause of global warming now?

I did read the link. As I said, it's objectivity is questionable given Mann contributes to it, and the arrogance of the writer in that post was staggering.

Five years before accepting Mann's work as gospel, the IPCC released a chart indicating average temperature fluctuations through the last 11 centuries. It indicated the "mideval warm period" - which has been substantiated many times over, as shown in my fourth link - in the first third of the last millenium, during which global temperatures rose and fell at rates faster than they currently are. It also shows a mini warming trend in the 17th century that behaved the same.

There have been strong warming and cooling trends over the past millenium at least. I am not convinced that mankind is causing a warming trend that is out of the ordinary - unless, of course, we were burning oil and gas at significant rates around 1000AD.

[Mike F]

Originally posted by Snakeeye@Sep 21 2005, 04:11 PM
Five years before accepting Mann's work as gospel, the IPCC released a chart indicating average temperature fluctuations through the last 11 centuries. It indicated the "mideval warm period" - which has been substantiated many times over, as shown in my fourth link - in the first third of the last millenium, during which global temperatures rose and fell at rates faster than they currently are. It also shows a mini warming trend in the 17th century that behaved the same.

There have been strong warming and cooling trends over the past millenium at least. I am not convinced that mankind is causing a warming trend that is out of the ordinary - unless, of course, we were burning oil and gas at significant rates around 1000AD.

Snakeeye, if you'd read on in the link provided in my last post, you would have found an extensive discussion of the "Medieval Warm Period" & "Little Ice Age".

"Thus current evidence does not support globally synchronous periods of anomalous cold or warmth over this timeframe, and the conventional terms of “Little Ice Age” and “Medieval Warm Period” appear to have limited utility in describing trends in hemispheric or global mean temperature changes in past centuries."

[peter12]

Originally posted by RougeUnderoos@Sep 21 2005, 12:19 PM
I hate to be callous, but damn that's one dumb lady.

I saw a woman on CNN today -- she had been evacuated from NO, her house destroyed, to Galveston, TX. Now she's being evacuated again from Galveston to who knows where. ANyhow, she said "I was planning on staying in Galveston permanently".

In other words, she moved from a town under the ocean to a town in the ocean.

Galveston may be a great town, but geez, that just seems crazy to me.

Also, they were already talking about the effect this is going to have on gas prices so today might be a good day to fill up the car because we all know that the gas under the gas station retroactively costs more.

I agree but still on some sort of level I admire that woman's faith. Nothing wrong with just staying put and trusting something good happens.

[wittynickname]

As of an update from 6:50pm CDT:

...RITA BECOMES THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD...

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AT 623 PM CDT...2323Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO BELOW 899 MB...OR 26.55 INCHES. THE DROPSONDE INSTRUMENT
MEASURED 32 KT/35 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WHICH MEANS IT LIKELY
DID NOT RECORD THE LOWEST PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF RITA. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST AS LOW AS 898 MB...AND PERHAPS EVEN
LOWER. FOR OFFICIAL PURPOSES... A PRESSURE OF 898 MB IS ASSUMED...
WHICH NOW MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF
PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING AND
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB
AND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/212351.shtml


This is insane.

[RougeUnderoos]

Originally posted by peter12@Sep 21 2005, 06:43 PM
Nothing wrong with just staying put and trusting something good happens.

Is that a joke?

Anyhow, I checked a couple random Houston area sports teams message boards and wow. It's pretty intense.

I don't know how close some of those people are or if they actually know each other but there are messages like "get out of there, if you need a place to stay you can stay with me or my friends in Austin, my e-mail is..."

The progression of the thread from the first warning a few days ago is amazing. With jokes, insults, that kind of thing to "holy sheepdip this is going to be a big one, I've got 10 people in my house and we are leaving" and "the shelves are bare at the stores, there is no bottled water left, my generator is at my brother's house in New Orleans..." kind of thing.

Good luck to them.

[peter12]

Originally posted by RougeUnderoos@Sep 21 2005, 07:09 PM
Is that a joke?

Anyhow, I checked a couple random Houston area sports teams message boards and wow. It's pretty intense.

I don't know how close some of those people are or if they actually know each other but there are messages like "get out of there, if you need a place to stay you can stay with me or my friends in Austin, my e-mail is..."

The progression of the thread from the first warning a few days ago is amazing. With jokes, insults, that kind of thing to "holy sheepdip this is going to be a big one, I've got 10 people in my house and we are leaving" and "the shelves are bare at the stores, there is no bottled water left, my generator is at my brother's house in New Orleans..." kind of thing.

Good luck to them.

Sort of half a joke. Still nothing dumb if she was all alone, her home was all she had and she just wanted to stay put.

[RougeUnderoos]

Originally posted by peter12@Sep 21 2005, 07:13 PM
Sort of half a joke. Still nothing dumb if she was all alone, her home was all she had and she just wanted to stay put.

I don't know. "Dumb" is pretty harsh and the way you put it of course I have sympathy for that person. Still though, her home isn't all she has -- she also has her life. She's not going to save her home if it comes down to it. Her home will be ruined, if that's the way it goes, whether she's sitting on her own couch or sitting in the gymnasium of a Dallas elementary school.

Hopefully she made the right choice and isn't regretting it in a few days.

[transplant99]

OK>...everyone arguing that "global warming" is somehow responsible for the giant increase in hurricanes this year...please explain to me one thing.

That being....if THE 2 (TWO) foremost experts in North American hurricanes over the last 60 years BOTH agree that this is nothing more than a cyclical occurrence with variables that haven't all come togther at one time before (like it is this season) then what in the hell is the continuous argument against THEM??

These guys aren't just some fly by night, "im making a name for myself by being different", Dr. Quacks. These guys have devoted the majority of their lives and even more time to the science and reseach of hurricanes current as well as past...they conclusively and undeniably agree that this season is nothing more than....a normal cycle of things predicted and seen before.

Yet...and argument continues because of some other scienctists that DONT do this full time, nor as their particular study, and that becomes the gospel for the tree hugging crowd?

Come on.

As has been proven by HISTORY, and SCIENCE....this is not theory nor subjectivity....its freaking fact and a half. Deal with it. The people in the gulf coast are.