How/Why does Tod Button still have a job?

[VladtheImpaler]

Originally Posted by flambers

to clarify;

2004 - 3 NHLers

2005 - Matt Pelech, Brett Sutter (could break in next year). Gord Baldwin is another prospect who has a shot at NHL.

2006 - Leland Irving is a good prospect, goalies take allot longer to develop..

John Armstrong came close to making the team last year has had injury problems

Now you are really reaching.

2004 - 3 borderline NHLers, unless Boyd find his game in Nashville
2005 - Nothing, and 3 4th liners at best if they all reach their upside
2006 - yeah, goalies take up to 10 years, so we'll see; Armstrong, again, marginal 4th liner at best

[flambers]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

Now you are really reaching.

2004 - 3 borderline NHLers, unless Boyd find his game in Nashville
2005 - Nothing, and 3 4th liners at best if they all reach their upside
2006 - yeah, goalies take up to 10 years, so we'll see; Armstrong, again, marginal 4th liner at best

I am curious on your yr 2005 comments... I listed two dman and a forward and your response is 3 4th liners? Personally I would not write off Pelech.

Any time a late pick like the one that was used on Pardy turns out that is a good thing.

As for Irving, yep it could take awhile.

[VladtheImpaler]

Originally Posted by flambers

I am curious on your yr 2005 comments... I listed two dman and a forward and your response is 3 4th liners? Personally I would not write off Pelech.

Any time a late pick like the one that was used on Pardy turns out that is a good thing.

As for Irving, yep it could take awhile.

I was equating bottom pairing dmen to 4th liners - sorry for misleading comment. Yeah, it's good Pardy turned out to be something, but by the same token a 6th/7th dman doesn't make much difference, and it's not like we can't replace him for free any off-season (see Johnson, Kronwall, Ericsson, etc...). That just goes back to my belief that there is no sense in drafting 4th liners/6th defensemen - they are always available for the minimum any summer...

[canadianboy]

one thing some of you dont understand is its not very easy to fire an entire scouting department an replace it with top quality guys. most of theese scouts stay within one organisation and have pensions with theese teams so they dont want to leave. The department appears to slowly be turning over especially in europe. and to the gentelmen who said that you need good 2nd and 3rd round picks to build a team that is not as key when your franchise attracts free agents but still thats no excuse for the failures in the 2nd round. i would say though we have had some good picks in the 3rd

[Jables16]

Not that I've been in favor of all the draft picks Sutter and his staff have made over the years but I wouldn't write off our farm system just yet. I know everyone is aware that the cupboard was empty when Sutter arrived here but I don't think that everyone understands that building the prospect pool means more than just drafting dynamite blue-chippers that can make an impact on the big team right away. We'd all love to have some more guys like that but we do need those other guys to fill out our farm team and be able to come up in relief, play effectively and return to the team when roster players return from injury. Sutter and his staff have an unfair reputation of drafting nothing but "third and fourth line pluggers and checkers" but we didn't even have guys who could do that under the old regime. We need those guys, thus some draft picks were alloted for that.

Factor in that we've been a playoff team for all but one season that Sutter has been drafting which means that when we do go for a guy who projects to be a top 6 forward, top 4 defense, #1 or solid back-up goalie etc. the guys we draft in the late 20s of the first round, our rare but vaunted second rounders, and reasonable chance third rounders and are going to take longer to develop. The time is starting to come and those picks are going to start trickling onto the big team year by year. Backlund this year, likely Pelech next year, Nemisz and Irving, maybe even Erixon the year after. Then there are guys like Howse and Negrin who could surprise and make an impact with the Flames in these next few years.

It sucks that we don't have a first or second rounder at this point, it was a gamble that didn't pay off to move those picks, but that happens sometimes. Either way you can expect that will change at the draft as Sutter loves to wheel and deal around then. Even if we don't the Flames organization is light years ahead of where it was before Sutter and a lot of people are quick to dismiss that. If we are in a position where we need a new GM to take us over the finish line, it's Sutter who ran 95% of the marathon. I believe he can finish it.

[Claeren]

I am mostly concerned with how they are doing their jobs. Its seems like a very old school mentality, doing it the same way year after year after year.

Are there new hockey concepts that should be incorporated into this old schol thinking? Are there ways of thinking about talent and performance beyond how they were looking at those concepts in 1992 (or whatever), are there technologies or amalgamated data that can be used to help identify talent or prospective talent form all of the raw data available coming out of the various junior leagues?

A forum/social media could be set-up for people like us, fans, to identify and scout talent across the league. Multiplying by many times over the total amount of scouting hours.

Computers could sift through CHL radio/tv broadcasts and count how often players names are mentioned, to find underrated players often involved in the play. Or state of the art computer software developed to identify strong play characteristics of players in all of the leagues.

Programs could be set-up to show what are desirable combinations of traits in players, and then players abilities could be graded by scouts and fed into that program to get a list of the most desirable players at any draft position. (IE, players over 6'3 should score at least 7/10 in speed to be competitive at NHL level, etc)

All sorts of ideas. People can say they would cost a lot of money but we are talking about a business that geenrates what, $60M/year in revenue??


I am guessing they are scouting almost exactly like they were 10 years ago and there is no way you are ever the best at something this competitive when you let new tools and ways of thinking pass you by just to stay true to some old school hockey mentality.

I can virtually guarentee most of the Flames scouting is being done with excel work sheets and email.... yikes.



Claeren.

[canadianboy]

http://www.rinknet.com/

every nhl team uses it with the exception of columbus if i recall correctly

[Erick Estrada]

This thread was a good idea but wrong year for relevance. The Flames have barely any picks of consequence in 2010 so really it doesn't matter who's scouting. Obviously Darryl has realized that their scouting sucks which is why he continues to trade away picks like they are the plague.

[IM A PILLOW]

Im looking forward to seeing Nemisz, Wahl, Brodie, Bouma and Patterson in their rookie AHL seasons next year. (If they are not sent back to junior for another year if eligable)

[Claeren]

Originally Posted by canadianboy

http://www.rinknet.com/

every nhl team uses it with the exception of columbus if i recall correctly

That is great, except:

- If every team is using it then it is hard for any one team to derive a large advantage from it. I would hope that thought has gone into obtaining maximum return from this tool relative to the other teams, but I suspect that is not the case, and it is being used only to its most basic potential.

- It still doesnt seem state of the art. In fact it seems downright lowtech. It is a start though.

- You derive the largest benefit when you have tools that no one else has. Not just once, but every year, I would hope the Flames scouting staff has looked for some innovation/competitive advantage that other teams have not yet found. To be the best you dont do what everyone else does, or play catch-up, you blaze the trail.




Interestingly I think a lot of the same problems are found with the Flames in other areas, like the powerplay for example. Trying to work hard instead of smart. At the NHL level I am pretty sure you need BOTH, and just trying to do the same old systems harder than the other team only gets you so far.

Scouting the same old players the same old ways only gets you so far.





Claeren.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Dorkmaster

Kiprusoff, good pick or terrible pick because it took him till about 28 or so before he finally got the starting job. Ryan must have been a bust because the 2nd overall pick took forever before he became a full time NHLer. Bertuzzi took a long time to get into his groove and Penner wasn't in the NHL till 24.

Bourque didn't play till he was pretty old and hasn't done much till his late 20's.

Drafts take years to unfold.

He wasn't that great of a pick for San Jose. They were lucky to get something back for him. Most teams that draft a goalie that takes 8-10 years to make the show and develop into a starter receive little or nothing in return while the goalie tends another team's net.

Bertuzzi scored 39 points in the NHL as a 20 year old. Ryan was also getting time in the NHL at 20. That's pretty normal development for an NHLer.

I don't have any data, but I'd guess that the vast majority of NHLer's that go on to have solid careers are making the league between the ages of 20-23, or by 5 years after the draft.

Penner and Bourque weren't drafted.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by flambers

to clarify;

2004 - 3 NHLers

2005 - Matt Pelech, Brett Sutter (could break in next year). Gord Baldwin is another prospect who has a shot at NHL.

2006 - Leland Irving is a good prospect, goalies take allot longer to develop..

John Armstrong came close to making the team last year has had injury problems

You've got some guys that have a chance in 05 and 06 but no results.

5 years is a fair length of time to give prospects. Maybe 2% of them will have a career after that point, but a GM doesn't get unlimited time to decide. They are forced into making decisions by waivers and contract limits.

[Ziggy Lidstrom]

We can see the macro trajectory of sutter's plan. If Button can now unearth some high=ceiling gems then we are in business.

Sutter is slowly changing his draft-strategies. He did what some have spoke of in building the relief talent for a farm team and next year there will be the matriculation of our more heralded young talent to the A. Next year will be interesting to see how some of these cats develope.

If we can start developing pro-commodities whether they are western canadian or not, I think we set our selves up better for the future. Draft the wildcards, hope they pay off, then sell high on the dollar insofar as to be able to set yourself up in a deep draft like burke or clarke in 03. That's kinda what Pierre Lacroix does in Colo. This team was bulit on sound FA investment, sound homegrown talent and 2 high picks after a bad year that netted 2 real good pro-ready players which has them bouyed by a solid goalie and primed for the pl'offs.

[expatflame]

I'm not sure why everyone is b$*$@ing about picks. Come draft day, Sutter will get picks back shipping away the likes of Sarich, Langkow, Moss, etc. They may not be high picks but picks nonetheless

[mister__big]

Originally Posted by expatflame

I'm not sure why everyone is b$*$@ing about picks. Come draft day, Sutter will get picks back shipping away the likes of Sarich, Langkow, Moss, etc. They may not be high picks but picks nonetheless

Looks like you've missed the point of this thread. Most people here are talking about the inability of the Flames to draft well with the picks they've got, not the lack of picks this year.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

You've got some guys that have a chance in 05 and 06 but no results.

5 years is a fair length of time to give prospects. Maybe 2% of them will have a career after that point, but a GM doesn't get unlimited time to decide. They are forced into making decisions by waivers and contract limits.

FYI... here are a few Wings.

Kronwall took 5 years to make the NHL.

Jimmy Howard took 6 years.

Jonathan Ericsson took 6 years

[VladtheImpaler]

Originally Posted by flambers

FYI... here are a few Wings.

Kronwall took 5 years to make the NHL.

Jimmy Howard took 6 years.

Jonathan Ericsson took 6 years

Kronwall was drafted in 2000 and made his NHL debut in 2003-04, plus... the Wings seem to know how to develop talent, unlike... you know...

[Flame Of Liberty]

Originally Posted by Jables16

Not that I've been in favor of all the draft picks Sutter and his staff have made over the years but I wouldn't write off our farm system just yet. I know everyone is aware that the cupboard was empty when Sutter arrived here but I don't think that everyone understands that building the prospect pool means more than just drafting dynamite blue-chippers that can make an impact on the big team right away. We'd all love to have some more guys like that but we do need those other guys to fill out our farm team and be able to come up in relief, play effectively and return to the team when roster players return from injury. Sutter and his staff have an unfair reputation of drafting nothing but "third and fourth line pluggers and checkers" but we didn't even have guys who could do that under the old regime. We need those guys, thus some draft picks were alloted for that.

That theory doesn't work in Calgary. Sutter brings NHL vets to do just that - Lundmark/Jaffray/Stuart/Eriksson or heck even Mark Smith back in the day.

He drafts pluggers and checkers but they plug and check in the AHL.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

Kronwall was drafted in 2000 and made his NHL debut in 2003-04, plus... the Wings seem to know how to develop talent, unlike... you know...

Okay... Pelech made his NHL debut last season....

As for Kronwall he was not a full time NHLer until 2006-2007.

[VladtheImpaler]

Originally Posted by flambers

Okay... Pelech made his NHL debut last season....

As for Kronwall he was not a full time NHLer until 2006-2007.

Kronwall played 20 games in the NHL in 2003-4. Lockout, where he was the best dman in the AHL, then he was a full-time NHLer in 2005-6, but suffered a serious injury and was limited to 27 games. Plus... Kronwall is talented. So, don't compare him to Pelech.