I thought this was a good article. Shows even though a team is favoured, the possibility of winning isn't massive. The stats are also from before the lose to the US so one would expect that has a lowering affect on the percentage.
...In other words, there's no way that people should expect a gold medal - Canada's the favorite, and they probably have a 20% shot at winning (it would have been 25% if they had beaten Switzerland in regulation).
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Of course we can win, we just have alot of games where in a winner moves on loser goes home tourney it makes our chances less likely.It would have been likely 2-3X more likely had they got the 1st seed overal.
Having to play Germany, Russia 50% chance, Sweden 50% chance (likely) and then US/Fins/Czech 50% chance
Would likely be a 50*50*60 = 15% chance of winning.
I discounted Germany as being an auto win.
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Last edited by mykalberta; 02-23-2010 at 12:19 PM.
If Canada can get to the Gold Medal game, because we didn't win our pool we get to see an extra game of team Canada. So there is that benefit.
Is watching Canada vs Germany that fun?
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MYK - Supports Arizona to democtratically pass laws for the state of Arizona
Rudy was the only hope in 08
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Well, someone has a 100% chance of winning and it might as well be Canada.
Which team is going to run the board? One of them has to. I'd say the most likely team is Canada.
Cowperson
No teams odds are 100% right now.
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MYK - Supports Arizona to democtratically pass laws for the state of Arizona
Rudy was the only hope in 08
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Funny how you hear alot of people saying "the russians are scary", "too bad canada has to face the russians", "canada's path is so hard cause of the russians", etc
Really, if the russians are that good you will have to beat them sometime anyway, regardless of where you started in the playoffs. The chance of winning gold cause you had to face the easy teams isn't there.
If they can't beat every team in the playoffs they don't deserve gold, plain and simple.
I am a big fan of the tournament format this time around. Winning the gold shouldn't be a cake walk, even for the best/most stacked team. Canada having to play Russia early (assuming the W against Germany), and then having to face 2 more difficult opponents...that's going to be great to watch. There's no guarantee by any means. That's what makes the international game so great..the fact that Canada isn't guaranteed to dominate.
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What also makes it great is 3 points for a win in regular time.
What makes it not so great is that its run by the IOC.
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Chances of winning hockey gold
