Liberals will move to topple Conservative Gov't

[starseed]

I think Harper's attack ads will keep Ignatieff at bay in terms of a Liberal minority, I am fairly certain it will be a weaker conservative minority... which means the Liberals walk into a minefield when they will inevitably immediately vote no-confidence and say they can hold the confidence of the house.

Harper will be booted, the conservatives will pick a new leader, they will get a boost, and boom, we have yet another election in 2-3 years.

[killer_carlson]

I think the Conservatives win it this time, by a larger minority government.

The Libs won't be able to play the 'scary american loving' card because that points to Ignatief more than Harper.

You'll see the NDP try to wipe the greens off the map and that won't go well. Harper will target the NDP making it seem like they have legitimate things to offer, and thereby hoping to better split the left wing vote.

Harper will be crucified the entire election by all opposition parties for his economic collapse blunder during the last debate.

If the libs do call an election, i'll be sending a large cheque to the national conservative caucus to be put towards a seat in contention, because my riding is already wrapped up. I'm sure I'll be on call election night again though...just in case someone pulls some voter shenanigans.

[Savvy27]

I don't think the Liberals are going to need to resort to focusing on Harper (outside of some areas of his record as Prime Minister) because this time they actually have a candidate who can go toe-to-toe with him. Paul Martin and Stephane Dion were both very weak party leaders, compared to Harper. Ignatieff has sharpened his speaking skills and I think he has a pretty good idea of what Liberal voters are looking for.

The Conservatives may very well win, a majority seems unlikely, but, they have the seats now and they've run very strong campaigns recently, so they're the frontrunners. It should be a close one.

[Bownesian]

Originally Posted by starseed

I think Harper's attack ads will keep Ignatieff at bay in terms of a Liberal minority, I am fairly certain it will be a weaker conservative minority... which means the Liberals walk into a minefield when they will inevitably immediately vote no-confidence and say they can hold the confidence of the house.

Harper will be booted, the conservatives will pick a new leader, they will get a boost, and boom, we have yet another election in 2-3 years.

That's a pretty slim call. The Consrevatives are 10 seats from a majority right now. I do agree that the knives will come out if there is anything less than a Conservative majority this time.

[Bownesian]

Originally Posted by Savvy27

I don't think the Liberals are going to need to resort to focusing on Harper (outside of some areas of his record as Prime Minister) because this time they actually have a candidate who can go toe-to-toe with him. Paul Martin and Stephane Dion were both very weak party leaders, compared to Harper. Ignatieff has sharpened his speaking skills and I think he has a pretty good idea of what Liberal voters are looking for.

The Conservatives may very well win, a majority seems unlikely, but, they have the seats now and they've run very strong campaigns recently, so they're the frontrunners. It should be a close one.

Ignatieff is now by far the weakest French speaker among leaders who will be at the debates. I'm curious what difference that will make in Quebec.

[EddyBeers]

Originally Posted by Bownesian

Ignatieff is now by far the weakest French speaker among leaders who will be at the debates. I'm curious what difference that will make in Quebec.

Nope, that honour definitely goes to Ms. May, followed by Harper being the second worst. My three Quebecois roommates can barely understand what Harper is saying half the time when they are watching him at French news conferences.

[Devils'Advocate]

Originally Posted by EddyBeers

Nope, that honour definitely goes to Ms. May, followed by Harper being the second worst. My three Quebecois roommates can barely understand what Harper is saying half the time when they are watching him at French news conferences.

Odd. Every Quebecois french teacher I have had says that Harper speaks very well in french and they are impressed at just how well he speaks the language given such a short period in which he had to learn it.

I dislike Harper and everything that he stands for, but given the difficulties I had learning french, I give the man credit for picking up the language so that at least francophone TEACHERS understand him, if not EddyBeer's room-mates.

[Slava]

Doesn't anyone else here think that the CPC is going to be hurt by the update from Flaherty? From last years "we will not run a deficit because they are addictive" to ever increasing amounts and longer and longer terms.

I've got to think that Liberals hit this hard and hammer away at how prudent the CPC approach has been here.

[yads]

Originally Posted by EddyBeers

Nope, that honour definitely goes to Ms. May, followed by Harper being the second worst. My three Quebecois roommates can barely understand what Harper is saying half the time when they are watching him at French news conferences.

Ms. May won't be at the debates so that's a moot point.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Slava

Doesn't anyone else here think that the CPC is going to be hurt by the update from Flaherty? From last years "we will not run a deficit because they are addictive" to ever increasing amounts and longer and longer terms.

I've got to think that Liberals hit this hard and hammer away at how prudent the CPC approach has been here.

Yes and no. On the one hand, it definitely opens the door to the argument that the Tories don't really know what's going on and that the economy is in poor hands. But it's difficult for the Liberals to attack the Tories both for the actual size of the deficit and for the programs that the Tories are cutting.

I think the latest economic update is Flaherty actually hedging his bets. But that in itself is a tactic that could massively backfire, should the Liberals win even a minority; if he's hedging his bets and the Liberals come into power and actually outperform those bets, then it makes the Liberals look like the better stewards of the economy. If I were Flaherty, I would have waited until after an election to start moving the figures one way or the other.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Slava

Doesn't anyone else here think that the CPC is going to be hurt by the update from Flaherty? From last years "we will not run a deficit because they are addictive" to ever increasing amounts and longer and longer terms.

I've got to think that Liberals hit this hard and hammer away at how prudent the CPC approach has been here.

I doubt it, remember that a lot of the stimulus spending came from suggestions and requirements from the Liberal's to keep the government in place.

I think Canadian's are also smart enough to understand that in a global economic meltdown the first victim is the deficit.

[Bownesian]

Originally Posted by yads

Ms. May won't be at the debates so that's a moot point.

Indeed. I wonder if it has something to do with not liking the messenger.

Personally, I find them both to be reasonable to understand in French but that Harper seems more fluid like he "thinks" the language a bit better. They're both anglophones though - Harper with a strong English Canadian accent and Ignatieff with an American/Parisian accent.

I was pretty sure that Chantal Hebert had rated Harper's french higher than Ignatieff's:
http://blogues.lactualite.com/hebert/?p=354

"spend more time practicing his French with his entourage before going onto the set of [Radio-Canada's] Tout le monde en parle in mid-April."

"many Liberals and all the journalists concluded, while listening to Michael Ignatieff's speech in Laval last week, that he must either avoid making magisterial speeches in French or learn to master a teleprompter if he wants to fire up the crowds in Quebec — or at the very least not put them to sleep — during the next election campaign."

"While he seeks his words, his message goes up in smoke. "

In other news:
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/...-coaltion.html

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff vowed Friday that his party would never enter into a governing coalition and said he could make Parliament work without such a deal.

[Pastiche]

Chantal Hebert is the best domestic political commentator in Canada. I always look forward to her on At Issue on The National.

http://www.cbc.ca/national/blog/vide...her_fight.html

[octothorp]

Yup, I like her too. Even though she's the most manly-looking of CBC's political pundits.

[Calgaryborn]

Originally Posted by Slava

Doesn't anyone else here think that the CPC is going to be hurt by the update from Flaherty? From last years "we will not run a deficit because they are addictive" to ever increasing amounts and longer and longer terms.

I've got to think that Liberals hit this hard and hammer away at how prudent the CPC approach has been here.

I think most Canadians were last drawn to Canadian politics last year around Christmas. Then there was talk about the newly formed conservative government being brought down by the three other parties because they weren't doing enough to help stimulate the economy. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to know that means spending money.

If any thing I think the Liberals are going to be hurt if they take that tact. They would do much better to point out perceived waste or appeal to people who are still hurting by the down turn by arguing the government hasn't done enough to help. The biggest threat the liberals face is the appearance of having called another election for no reason other than grabbing power. If they don't convince Canadians their motives are pure and they are acting in the best interest of Canadians this could go very badly for them.

[Bownesian]

Originally Posted by Pastiche

Chantal Hebert is the best domestic political commentator in Canada. I always look forward to her on At Issue on The National.

http://www.cbc.ca/national/blog/vide...her_fight.html

I read every one of her columns for the Toronto Star:
http://www.thestar.com/comment/columnists/94656

I like Don Martin and John Ivison too:
http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/...DonMartin.html
http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/...ohnIvison.html

and once in a while I grit my teeth and read the slightly-left-of-Lenin Jim Travers:
http://www.thestar.com/comment/columnists/94626

[MelBridgeman]

Originally Posted by Pastiche

Chantal Hebert is the best domestic political commentator in Canada. I always look forward to her on At Issue on The National.

http://www.cbc.ca/national/blog/vide...her_fight.html

At issue is great!

[Azure]

I also think the Conservatives will win again.

How pissed off will we all be if the seats remain virtually the same?

[transplant99]

Next Friday (18th) is the day the vote of confidence will happen.

[octothorp]

The Tory government is being propped up by socialists!!!

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/...insurance.html

Not really. But I'd say this news isn't really surprising. Only one poll in the last couple months shows the NDP slightly improving on their support, while many polls show them dropping by 4%. I think they really risk losing a lot of their support from soft Liberal supporters who couldn't stomach Stephan Dion.

Which paints an interesting problem for the Liberals: even if they like their odds, they cannot single-handedly force an election. They need to get both other opposition parties on board with them and while the BQ is usually game, unless the Tories actually perceivably screw up, the NDP will want to stand pat.