New World Order - 2060

[jammies]

Being an obsessive history buff, I was thinking the other night about what I see as the imminent end of what might be termed the "Age of Oil". Even though oil will remain perhaps "the" important strategic resource for the next few decades, I think that its importance will dwindle eventually to a level somewhat akin to coal's, and that it will no longer distort national policies as it has in the past.

Before oil, nations were preoccupied with land in the form of colonies; every technologically advanced nation sought to subjugate peoples and expand the territory under its control, an obsession which of course led to WWI when the Austrians made their ill-advised gamble to dominate the free Serbs. I doubt that overt colonialism will make a comeback, but the superpowers of the future will almost certainly be focused upon a kind of economic imperialism such as we already have in place to a large extent, where less-developed nations will be seen as exploitable labour resources to be brought into one's sphere of influence.

So, as a bit of hypothetical fun, here are my thoughts on who will be the superpowers of the future - say 2060, 50 years from now:

USA
Odds: 3 to 1

Despite economic hardship that will almost certainly result in massive restructuring of its economy in the near term, the USA is still likely to be the technological, economic, and military leader of the world for at least the next 20 years and possibly much longer. What might bring them down, however, are two possibilities: one, breakup of an increasing unworkable Union; two, radicalization in order to combat that same problem of an inefficient and increasing interventionist federal government. The next 8-12 years may rival the first Civil War and the New Deal years as a watershed in American history, and it's too early to say what the result may be, except that if a continuation of the increasingly untenable status quo is all that happens, America will fail one way or the other.

China
Odds: 5 to 1

As a long-term strategy, selling the USA goods on credit isn't viable, so the Chinese will need to develop other (paying) markets to continue their current economic success, but that isn't impossible. The big problem as I see it is their government: it is a corrupt and backward institution that does not have the flexibility or organization level that will allow it to go beyond being a more consumer-focused Soviet Union. Abysmal levels of innovation and middling workmanship are not the basis of a dominant world power, and only the replacement of the military/apparatchik kleptocracy in charge can allow China to reassert itself as a true "Middle Kingdom".

Europe
Odds: 5 to 1

If the British can be brought fully into co-operation with the rest of Europe, and if Eastern Europe is developed to a roughly co-eval economic status with Western Europe, then Europe will rise again as the power centre of the world. However, those are two big ifs - more likely is that Europe remains important, but only as a regional power that is turned inward.

The British seem undecided between becoming Little America, Far Europe, or Fortress Britain, and it is impossible to say if they will ever commit to one path or another. In Eastern Europe, lagging behind the West has been a way of life since the end of the Middle Ages, so expecting that to change in the next few decades may be asking too much.

Japan
Odds: 12 to 1

The Japanese have stalled since the late 80's, when it looked they were going to reverse the outcome of WWII and end up the masters of the Pacific using yen instead of bullets. Still, they are technological innovators only matched by the Europeans and Americans, and if oil supplies no longer exert their choke-hold upon their ambitions they are perhaps best served by the change of any nation.

Like the Chinese, however, their government holds them back - to make a military comparison, tactical ingenuity is overmatched by strategic fatuity. Restructuring Japan after WWII only rechanneled the urge to fascism as opposed to destroying it; the interconnections between government and industry are as strong as they ever were and still exert the same deadening influence over both. If those interconnections weaken or transform, however, Japan could still make it to the big leagues.

India
Odds: 20 to 1

The Indians are basing their economy more on services than the Chinese, and thus are not growing at the same rate, but long-term I think it is a more sound strategy and that they will slowly overtake. However, soon India will be the most populous nation on the planet, surpassing China, and it is entirely likely that it will remain essentially two nations: one a poverty-laden mess of a billion peasants; and second a technologically mature society comprising a couple hundred million educated middle-class urban dwellers.

One advantage they have over the Chinese is that they are a parliamentary democracy and thus have the potential to be well-governed; however this potential has not yet been realized and endemic corruption is a continuing problem.

Russia:
Odds: 30 to 1

With the loss of all the former imperial territories, and especially the Ukraine, Russia just isn't big enough anymore to reassert itself as a world power no matter how much the Kremlin wishes otherwise. Still, 50 years is a long time, and if revanchism and bluster are enough to reassemble the Empire, Russia is well supplied with both and can make a run at it.

Realistically, though, the Russians need to partner with someone if they want any chance of regaining even a portion of their former stature. Their pride, however, precludes them taking advantage of their best hope, which I would see as clients of the Chinese.

Brazil:
Odds: 50 to 1

It's big, it's rich in resources, and it is growing. It's also infested with slums and crime, and it's destroying its ecological base as fast as it can. In the unlikely event that Russia goes rogue and starts a nuclear war with Europe, or the Chinese try to invade Japan, or the USA implodes and millions of educated refugees flee to the beaches of Rio, then Brazil might end up a superpower by default. Otherwise, Brazil will remain known mainly for its hot women, which is probably better than being a superpower anyway.

South Africa:
Odds: 200 to 1

It's like Brazil, except much smaller and even more riven by class warfare and violence. Still, it has lasted a decade longer as a democracy than I had guessed it would, and it is the one country in Africa that isn't a complete failure. I don't think 50 years is long enough to overcome their problems and to bring other African nations into their community, but there is a very, very slim chance the right combination of leaders and political movements could make it happen.

[JohnnyB]

What, no Canada??

[jonesy]

Very nice.What is your view on Islamic nations rising up to rule over all? I'd say 5:1, maybe even 3:1

[FlamesAddiction]

I really doubt that Europeans will be able to get along well enough in the next 50 years to build a unified superpower - short of some type of mass homogeniztion, which would likely come after a very large war.

Europe is historical the most violent and war torn continent on the planet. At the moment, we like to point at Africa and the Middle East as the violent places, but until about 60 years ago, it was always Europe.

A lot can change in 50 years... Just for fun, I predict another Russian superpower that incorporates a large part of occupied Eastern Europe.

I predict that the Western powers will occupy/annex most of Western Europe in one political entity in order to mitigate the Russians.

I predict a fall of the Iranian Islamic Republic and the birth of secular Iran that establishes itself as the dominant power in Central Asia. In response, a loose confederation of Arab powers will unite in a similar manner to the EU.

China and India will be regionally powerfull, but neither has a history of forcibly imposing their power outside of the particular spheres.... although, China has been pretty busy establishing power in Africa recently (Angola in particular). All in all though, I think they are more or less going to watch as Western Civilization destroys itelf.

[Daradon]

Originally Posted by jonesy

Very nice.What is your view on Islamic nations rising up to rule over all? I'd say 5:1, maybe even 3:1

That's rather bleak. And probably way to high. At least, if you mean ''all'' the way I think you mean ''all''.

They have control in several nations yes, and even in roads in others, but do you ever see them 'ruling' over places like the U.K, U.S., good ol Canada?

I know we're having a bit of growing pains in deciding where the lines of personal religion and community and personal freedoms should be drawn. But if things got truly bad, no one in a free country would stand for it.

I agree we need to keep a vigilant eye, and remind ourselves that religious tolerance and freedoms does not necessarily mean special rights, especially when it comes to law (IE Sharia etc.) but I really don't see it getting that much worse, at least in places of the world like ours.

EDIT: Oops, as an odds thing, then maybe 100:1 or less. Again, if we are defining ''all'' the same way.

[Playfair]

There is a huge thorn in this theory. Oil. The world is going to get very thirsty for oil fast, even if they develop other forms of fuel, oil is going to be a huge factor. The other things that are going to be huge factors are obvious as well - food and water.

Ultimately whoever controls those three things will be the superpower. There is going to be a war coming, and it is focused on the Middle East, particularly, Israel.

It is believed to be a huge untapped oil rich country. If that is true, look out.

[CrusaderPi]

Wow is this a fun idea.

I'd put the US odds at 1:3 rather than 3:1 and in response to a previous poster I'd make the Islamic World a 500:1. What about the United Anglo Nations (US / UK / Can / NZ / Aus)?

[Daradon]

Predicting the next 50 years seems like a crap shoot to me. I have a feeling we are going to see a major change in even our own western lifestyle in the 30-50 year mark. Just from lack of resources. Oil, then water and food. Our demand is far outstripping our supply world wide and we're still increasing out population to boot.

To me if feels a lot like a petri dish with dividing bacteria. The first few divisions and doubles in population are no matter. Lots more room to grow. 1-2-4-8-16-32-64-128 etc. It's no problem, you're only microscopic bacteria. But the end comes surprisingly quick when you split like that. IE, when you reach half the dish being full, you really only have one full cycle left.

I think we're nearing that final cycle. Aren't we on pace to double our global population every 30 years or so? 2% growth a year or something? With food and energy shortages with 6.5 billion people, what happens with 13 billion people on the planet?

How about 26 billion?

We are nearing a point where there is:

Either a) going to HAVE to be a major way in which we live, govern, and take care of ourselves, not just as a country, but as a planet of people with one goal.

Or b) a lot of people are going to end up dying through a smattering of wars, instability, and pollution. Whether it's a global catastrophe like a WW3 brought on by the changes of an overcrowded petri dish knocking us back down to sustainable levels, or simply a longer, more drawn out wave of constant violence and squabbling that just keeps the population maintained will be the only question.

[flylock shox]

If we're talking about rapidly expanding spheres of influence, I don't think this list is complete without mentioning Colbert Nation.

[jammies]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

What, no Canada??

I was going to put us in at 100:1 and write up some eyewash about how it's possible that after the 2nd US Civil War, we move into the three Pacific states, etc, but realistically the chances are zero. Other than, I suppose, as part of some kind of resurrected Commonwealth in some extremely unlikely future on the order of 1000:1.

Originally Posted by jonesy

Very nice.What is your view on Islamic nations rising up to rule over all? I'd say 5:1, maybe even 3:1

No chance. Islam is an overblown threat, and oil is what gives them the little muscle they have now.

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I really doubt that Europeans will be able to get along well enough in the next 50 years to build a unified superpower - short of some type of mass homogeniztion, which would likely come after a very large war.

Well, 5 to 1 odds is 80% against, so I rather agree with you that their chances of becoming a superpower aren't that good. I doubt they will go to war, though, at least not against each other - the only credible opponents are the Russians and perhaps some kind of Islamic coalition led by the Turks. However, the Russians don't have the muscle and the Turks are more interested in joining the European Community than fighting it.

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

China and India will be regionally powerfull, but neither has a history of forcibly imposing their power outside of the particular spheres.... although, China has been pretty busy establishing power in Africa recently (Angola in particular). All in all though, I think they are more or less going to watch as Western Civilization destroys itelf.

What makes you think Western civilization is going to destroy itself? I think that possibility ended in 1989 myself.

Originally Posted by Playfair

There is a huge thorn in this theory. Oil. The world is going to get very thirsty for oil fast, even if they develop other forms of fuel, oil is going to be a huge factor. The other things that are going to be huge factors are obvious as well - food and water.

Well, except that the basis of my thought is that the developed nations are finally serious about getting off of oil, and that by 2060 that process will be complete. If I'm wrong, look to a very dangerous future where the USA and its client states resort to more and more military action to preserve American control of the majority of oil production, and every other power bloc scheming to end that control.

Originally Posted by CrusaderPi

I'd put the US odds at 1:3 rather than 3:1 and in response to a previous poster I'd make the Islamic World a 500:1. What about the United Anglo Nations (US / UK / Can / NZ / Aus)?

While I find the idea of an English-speaking bloc of countries appealing, I don't see how it works, especially under American guidance. There is a cultural connection, but physically the nations are too far apart and there is no economic rationale for such a coalition either. In the end I think the British will fully integrate into the European Union and the Australians/New Zealanders will align with India.

[Mean Mr. Mustard]

With the massive population of developing nations such as India and China continuing to rise, I predict that in the future conflicts will be fought over three main resources, the first being over water. I know that this might sound stupid, but the worlds water supply is being constantly eroded and in many developing nations the process of industrialization has made it so that the water supplies that exist are unfit for human consumption. There are always filtering options that exist, but those take a large amount of energy for the most part. The second resource that wars will be fought over is light crude oil. At the current time everything about our society is built on crude, from the shoes on our feet, the computers that we use and the roads that we drive on pretty much everything is made out of oil. We are addicted to oil and while I don't know if I prescribe to the theory that all oil is running out and that we are doomed for all eternity, I have to think that as the supply does dwindle people will do anything, including fight for what remains of the resource. The last resource, much like the first is food. As the population increases the ability to produce food hasn't increased in turn and the gluttonous nature of humans as a whole has made it so that massive populations are starving, which leads to social upheaval and in term inter-nation conflict.

I think that the days of fighting wars for king and country are over, but we will be fighting wars over securing our way of life. That is my doom and gloom outlook for the next 50 years.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by jammies

Well, 5 to 1 odds is 80% against, so I rather agree with you that their chances of becoming a superpower aren't that good. I doubt they will go to war, though, at least not against each other - the only credible opponents are the Russians and perhaps some kind of Islamic coalition led by the Turks. However, the Russians don't have the muscle and the Turks are more interested in joining the European Community than fighting it.

I'd like to think so, but there has been quite a bit of blow-back in recent years from the liberal immigration policies and mobile work forces caused from gloablization. I can see fascism, communism and storng nationalism making a comeback, and if that was to happen, there are bound to be some countries butting heads again.

What makes you think Western civilization is going to destroy itself? I think that possibility ended in 1989 myself.

Every civilization comes to end eventually... and it either collapses in on itself or gets destroyed by outside forces (or a little bit of both like the Roman civilization). Personally, I see Western Civilization (at least as we know it now) collapsing in on itself. We have built a fake economic system where we don't pay for what things actually cost resource and energy wise. We rely on developing countries to provide us with cheap assets in a way that was very similar to how the Roman Empire survived off of tribute to maintain their luxurious lifestyles. We can't expect that to last forever and when it ends, our way of life is going to change drastically. The capitalist system will need to be changed and if it can't be re-born into something as beneficial to us, our whole political systems will fail too as they are incredibly expensive to maintain. In short, freedom and democracy requires a lot of spare money. There's a reason many dictatorships are born out of poverty.

So, if you define Western Civilization as capitalism, freedom, and democracy, I don't think it is on solid ground unless things change drastically.

[jonesy]

Originally Posted by jammies

No chance. Islam is an overblown threat, and oil is what gives them the little muscle they have now.

Except that I believe Islam nations are the only nations left that would actively like to topple other nations for ideals instead of just materials (oil, food, water)

[spuzzum]

There are several hotspots to look over during the next few decades:
1. China vs India - They do not get along. China is very close to being considered an ally of Pakistan. And we all know how much Pakistan and India love each other.

2. Middle East vs. Israel - We do not know how the west will react if an arab state launches a huge military campaign against the Jews. I'm actually surprised they haven't gotten their act together better to take out a common enemy and threat. The catalyst will be if some whacked out regime develops or is close to developing nukes. Israel will either pre-attack or be attacked.

3. The battle for fresh water - there's an interesting book about how Canada possesses 90% of the world's fresh water supply and how it becomes a target. Odd thought.

4. North Korea - not too much of a threat minus a few nukes they can launch with a hammock

5. Russia - they are in the bad position with bordering China, and also all the whacked out Islam countries to the south where western troops are currently. It is conceivable some easily arises from this and branches out east and west

Superpowers:
1. The US will be broke in 20 years, if not already thus negating their superpower status
2. China or India are on the up and up. Calculate their 10% yearly GDP growth over 50 years and those numbers being frightening.
3. We also have to consider that the populations in Europe, and North America are falling at a rapid pace (minus the US and Canada though immigration) - and this will play a huge part. Our economies are going to become streched to the maximum paying for all the seniors - not enough young people coming down the pipe to pay the bill

[Reaper]

I think the whole arguement is moot if you make it strictly about oil rather than petrochemical energy as a group. We haven't even begun to tap the earth's reserves of natural gas. Natural gas will be the mitigating factor in the extension of the usable lifespan of oil consumption. I believe it is only a matter of time before we see wholesale conversion of automobiles to run on natural gas. When this happens the reserves of oil can be used alternatively rather than for the production of gasoline. Natural gas will rise in cost and people will begin to seek solar and wind out for heating homes. I expect we will not be out of our petrochemical phase before 2100 AD,

[Flamesguy_SJ]

??

[jolinar of malkshor]

Originally Posted by Mean Mr. Mustard

With the massive population of developing nations such as India and China continuing to rise, I predict that in the future conflicts will be fought over three main resources, the first being over water.

You know, a lot of people keep saying water is going to be a major determination in national development in the future. Water bringing it self to the value of oil.

I disagree. The earth has more water than it needs. We have the technology to make fresh water out of sea water. We have the technology to make water out of thin air. It is just going to cost us more to have, there will be no shortage of water.

[troutman]

My $ is on the Greys (2:1):

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by jolinar of malkshor

You know, a lot of people keep saying water is going to be a major determination in national development in the future. Water bringing it self to the value of oil.

I disagree. The earth has more water than it needs. We have the technology to make fresh water out of sea water. We have the technology to make water out of thin air. It is just going to cost us more to have, there will be no shortage of water.

De-salination in not very energy efficient and is really expensive, and all cloud seeding does is take water from the air that would have otherwise went to another area eventually.

For the same reason people went for the easily accessible oil before they went for the oil sands, they will want the easily accessible water before they go for the hard to get stuff.

[Finner]

Originally Posted by spuzzum

......

3. We also have to consider that the populations in Europe, and North America are falling at a rapid pace (minus the US and Canada though immigration) - and this will play a huge part. Our economies are going to become streched to the maximum paying for all the seniors - not enough young people coming down the pipe to pay the bill

As will China. The one child policy is already having lasting ramifications. Years of people having one child (and more men then women) is already putting strain on the Chinese economy.