Canadian Dollar - Page 2 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

macker · 08-25-2009, 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Slava

I doubt that the central banks would look to raise rates at this point...its risky for sure. The whole mess is a credit crisis and increasing the cost of credit on the way out (which most people agree on, we are on the way out somewhere on the scale) could kill that growth.

http://www.bnn.ca/news/11764.html

macker · 08-25-2009, 03:58 PM

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe...rticle1179697/

I don't see why it doesn't go higher over the next 6-12 months either....unless the BOC takes strong action

yads · 08-25-2009, 04:01 PM

Raising rates would not weaken the dollar. It would do just the opposite as investors seek a better rate of return. They could sell off reserves, thereby increasing the supply of dollars. They could always lower rates, but they're quite low as it is.

Slava · 08-25-2009, 04:03 PM

^ OK, that article talks about buying government debt and quantitative easing? Quantitative easing is where the government stimulates in other ways because interest rates are at zero. Maybe I'm missing something here, but I still don't see why they would raise rates?

MaDMaN_26 · 08-25-2009, 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yads

Raising rates would not weaken the dollar. It would do just the opposite as investors seek a better rate of return. They could sell off reserves, thereby increasing the supply of dollars. They could always lower rates, but they're quite low as it is.

Thats why I ask... what exactly would they do to weaken the dollar then? my interest rates guess was just a WAG (wild a$$ guess)

Sylvanfan · 08-25-2009, 04:13 PM

Do the same thing they're doing in the US, or any other country that needed to devalue it's currency. Print a schwack of it without backing it by selling bonds.

I honestly don't see how a serious round of hyperinflation can be avoided in the U.S. at some point in time here. Doesn't matter what we do in Canada to counteract that, we're going to end up getting beat up by that storm when it comes.

macker · 08-25-2009, 04:16 PM

nm

macker · 08-25-2009, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Slava

^ OK, that article talks about buying government debt and quantitative easing? Quantitative easing is where the government stimulates in other ways because interest rates are at zero. Maybe I'm missing something here, but I still don't see why they would raise rates?

Not raise rates but buy financial assets/t-bill's/corporate bonds from financial institutions.

smith12 · 08-25-2009, 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Slava

Interesting. I was going to dig out the financial turmoil thread just to comment on this today. Based purely on anecdotal information that I've heard from many economists and analysts I have the opposite impression.

Basically most people suggest that we've come too far, too fast and its not sustainable (speaking more about the stock market here, but certainly this is an economic reality as well). I don't want to derail the thread here, so I'll stop at that, but certainly that seems to be the pervasive attitude I've seen out there.

As far as making a short-term bet on the dollar its just that...a bet. You are gambling that over the next six months the dollar is going to move in a certain direction. I would consider that if you A) had the cash to lose and B) were maybe sitting at/near and all time high or low, but we're really in the middle here.

I
agree some people say the stock market has moved too far too fast, however other economists argue that it's just playing catch up. If you look at the current p/e ratios for most companies they still are not yet at the levels they were a year ago. The market had a complete melt down factored into the price of all stocks.

So to just say it has come too far too fast doesn’t really make sense? By the same token I could same it dropped to far too fast from Nov of last year to March. That doesn't necessarily mean that it was destined to move up.....

As for news on the recovery, I'm not sure how anyone could expect that it's not a recovery? All sectors except oil & gas have been killing earnings expectations. Furthermore, every economic report that comes out is beating analysts’ expectations. Today's consumer confidence report blew away even the most optimistic economists expectations. Several countries have even said they are out of the recession, those are facts.

As for Roubini, or whoever this guy is. Sure, he got lucky "predicting" the credit crunch back a year ago. He also predicted we were headed for a massive depression that he said could last 10 years similar to Japan. I'm not saying that's not going to happen but it sure seems unlikely at this point. So now all of a sudden he's saying we are coming out of a recession and warns of a double dip if oil prices stay high. Real bold prediction there. I give this guy no more creditability than I would any other economist.

My point is that anyone could have got lucky and predicated the current recession, that doesn't mean he's going to be right ever again.

Sylvanfan · 08-25-2009, 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smith12

I

My point is that anyone could have got lucky and predicated the current recession, that doesn't mean he's going to be right ever again.

You don't think a bit more than luck was involved when any of these economists be it Roubini or any one else predicted the bubble would burst and a recession would follow? I'd give them a bit more credit than that.

smith12 · 08-25-2009, 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

You don't think a bit more than luck was involved when any of these economists be it Roubini or any one else predicted the bubble would burst and a recession would follow? I'd give them a bit more credit than that.

Obviously it was a bit more than luck, that goes without saying. My point is that for every economist that predicts something right one time, they probably going to predict at least a dozen things wrong. So he predicted the lastest recession, big deal now all of a sudden everyone takes his advice as though it's religion?

I'm just saying that I'm sick of everyone talking about that guy who became famous because he got "lucky". I'd much rather listen to the federal reserve and what they think than that Roubini guy......

Stranger · 10-14-2009, 02:13 PM

Back to the dollar. They say it's on it's way to par with the US dollar, but will it go higher? I think I'll buy some US money for my January holiday if it hits par in the next few weeks and then see where it goes.

ken0042 · 10-14-2009, 04:02 PM

Last year when planning our fall trip to the US it cost $1.05 to buy US$ at the bank. We said "It really isn't going to get worse, is it? It can only get better." Then in November we bought our US funds at $1.25.

This year I bought a little hear and there for just under $1.10. If it gets better- then our hotel will be cheaper. But at least now I can relax knowing I'm already covered.

bluejays · 10-14-2009, 04:48 PM

I don't mean to exaggerate, but I bombed it. I basically bought about $8500 a few weeks ago in dribs and drabs averaging at the rate of about 1.07, and now the dollar has been shooting up. I'm actually dumbfounded as to the rapid rise this quickly. I don't have any data to back this up, but PAR isn't a question, but rather, how fast. The question is now how long will it last, and will it go $0.10 beyond PAR?