The Blue Jays: 2009 Season Thread

[nik-]

I want to cry.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Gozer

Then again, JP has said "we'll listen" to this question for a couple years - this isn't news.

Maybe not, but his time is running out to get a maximum return on Halladay. With Halladay signed for a very reasonable contract next year trading him now allows that team to get him for this years stretch run and have him all of next year as well as time to hammer out an extension. Whereas if they wait another year thats a year lost and than it's a matter of trading him for more than the compensation picks you'd get if you can't re-sign him.

The Jays are the 4th best team in their own Division and Boston and the Yankees aren't about to get any weaker. So given the current resources can the Jays build a team to compete with those two and the Rays for next year to entice Halladay to stay? Thats a tall order.

[Gozer]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

With Halladay signed for a very reasonable contract next year trading him now allows that team to get him for this years stretch run and have him all of next year as well as time to hammer out an extension. Whereas if they wait another year thats a year lost and than it's a matter of trading him for more than the compensation picks you'd get if you can't re-sign him.

I don't consider a year of Jay's fans watching the best player in baseball as the waste you seem

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

The Jays are the 4th best team in their own Division and Boston and the Yankees aren't about to get any weaker. So given the current resources can the Jays build a team to compete with those two and the Rays for next year to entice Halladay to stay? Thats a tall order.

I don't disagree, in fact I want to take your point one degree further. Trading Halladay for a future ace and a future stud probably doesn't lead to the Jays winning the division - the Yankees & Sox are still going to spend beyond competitiveness.

Why trade a fan favorite today to narrow the margin of defeat in three years?

[Jason14h]

LA Dodgers have a ton for great young Spects, and Doc would fit in perfect there.

See if you can make them take Wells in the deal too!

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Gozer

I don't disagree, in fact I want to take your point one degree further. Trading Halladay for a future ace and a future stud probably doesn't lead to the Jays winning the division - the Yankees & Sox are still going to spend beyond competitiveness.

For the simple reason, its pure asset management. Can the Jays trade Halladay for a better return than the sandwich picks they would receive if he leaves via Free Agency? My bet is, yes they can.

The Jays have to look and see what is the best path to make this team better in the future.

It would be great to see Roy sign another long term deal.......... but I doubt this is going to happen.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Gozer

I don't consider a year of Jay's fans watching the best player in baseball as the waste you seem

It's not a waste, but you have to ask the question. Whats better having him to watch for next year and than getting two draft picks as compensation when you finish 4th in the Division. Or trading him for 3-4 young players/more established prospects that can hopefully help you as early as next season.

Originally Posted by Gozer

I don't disagree, in fact I want to take your point one degree further. Trading Halladay for a future ace and a future stud probably doesn't lead to the Jays winning the division - the Yankees & Sox are still going to spend beyond competitiveness.

Why trade a fan favorite today to narrow the margin of defeat in three years?

Because this fan favorite only plays one out of every 5 games, and the idea is that you trade a year and half of short term pain to hopefully buy you a better shot at maybe being able to win. At the end of the day fans support winning teams better than they will an ace pitcher who gets to throw every 5th day. Keeping Halladay for the reason of giving fans a favorite player...sounds like a very Toronto Maple Leafs way of doing things.

Of course if Halladay does believe the team can win and will sign another contract fantastic. But I think at his age, he's a bit too old for BS and he's probably leaning towards picking a place where he feels his chances of pitching in the playoffs are best. But being the class act he is, he'll actually keep quiet about it and allow his team to get a maximum return out of it should they choose.

[Pagal4321]

I just hope if they do trade him, they do their resarch on the prospects they acquire.

And it makes sense to shop him this year, becuase you can get even more for him because he's signed next year for a reasonable salary.

I love Halladay, but the guy deserves to pitch in the playoffs and win a championship!

[Gozer]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Because this fan favorite only plays one out of every 5 games, and the idea is that you trade a year and half of short term pain to hopefully buy you a better shot at maybe being able to win.

That's a lot of "kinda maybes" to justify trading my favorite player.

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

At the end of the day fans support winning teams better than they will an ace pitcher who gets to throw every 5th day. Keeping Halladay for the reason of giving fans a favorite player...sounds like a very Toronto Maple Leafs way of doing things.

Well, ignoring what I consider an insult (my ideas = Leafs managent), the comparison just isn't there. The Leafs have a mild competitive advantage based on revenues, the Jays have a distinct and huge disadvantage.


I figure there are two ways to see things, either the team is;
a) close to competing and therefore trading Doc is silly or
b) far from competing and trading Doc won't make the difference

This team is simply not in a rebuilding mode - regardless if you think its a good idea. If we are going into a fire-sale, there are a lot of other assets we could move - Scutaro, Overbay, Rios, Tallet, Frasor, Downs, and so on.

[Gozer]

Oh, but David Dellucci < Brevin Mencherson.

Stupid JP.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Gozer

That's a lot of "kinda maybes" to justify trading my favorite player.

Well theres no sense trying to present all the logic in the world to justify a sports trade when the other party is going to come back with that type of retort.

Originally Posted by Gozer

Well, ignoring what I consider an insult (my ideas = Leafs managent), the comparison just isn't there. The Leafs have a mild competitive advantage based on revenues, the Jays have a distinct and huge disadvantage.

Grow a thicker skin than, that is nowhere close to an insult. For the second point you bring up...all the more reason for the Jays can't just keep fan favorites around. If they want to win they need to get the absolute maximum out of every asset they have.

Originally Posted by Gozer

I figure there are two ways to see things, either the team is;
a) close to competing and therefore trading Doc is silly or
b) far from competing and trading Doc won't make the difference

This team is simply not in a rebuilding mode - regardless if you think its a good idea. If we are going into a fire-sale, there are a lot of other assets we could move - Scutaro, Overbay, Rios, Tallet, Frasor, Downs, and so on.

Well thats the rub , and why it's a debatable topic. If they do move Halladay than they have to look at moving most of those guys too. Although Rios is signed for some time so the urgency with him would be less. But time is running out here on what you can get back for Halladay in a trade. It's no easy descision, but thats what GM's get paid to do, make those hard descisions.

[Gozer]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Well theres no sense trying to present all the logic in the world to justify a sports trade when the other party is going to come back with that type of retort.

Ok, I'll answer the question with "all the logic in the world"

Whats better having him to watch for next year and than getting two draft picks as compensation when you finish 4th in the Division. Or trading him for 3-4 young players/more established prospects that can hopefully help you as early as next season.

Having to watch him for next year and than getting two draft picks as compensation when you finish 4th in the division.

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Grow a thicker skin than, that is nowhere close to an insult.

Will do!

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

For the second point you bring up...all the more reason for the Jays can't just keep fan favorites around. If they want to win they need to get the absolute maximum out of every asset they have.

And yet another Cy Young calibre year is probably the absolute maximum they can get out of asset #32. You seem to be implying that any trade of Doc will certainly lead to a better team in two years, the prospects we get might be total busts and we'll have gambled away a 20 win 200 inning asset.

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Well thats the rub , and why it's a debatable topic. If they do move Halladay than they have to look at moving most of those guys too. Although Rios is signed for some time so the urgency with him would be less. But time is running out here on what you can get back for Halladay in a trade. It's no easy descision, but thats what GM's get paid to do, make those hard descisions.

Again, we agree from different sides of the fence.

If you think the smart managerial move is to trade Doc and then whoever else we can unload in some sort of Marlins-esque gutting of the franchise in the pursuit of potential, I respectfully disagree.
And I think my "I'm a fan and I want to watch a good baseball team" argument is perfectly legitimate.

I would rather see a Sutter/Flames type long term plan that includes competing today with talented high paid veterans WHILE cultivating the prospect pool in a winning atmosphere. The kind of plan that utilized veterans Ted Lilly and AJ Burnett and the replaced them internally with a stable of cheap young talented (albeit injured) pitchers. The kind of plan that puts you contention every year and hopes for the best from there.

Short of being the worst team in the league for 10 years (as was the Ray's strategy) or doubling our payroll, the current asset management strategy is the best course or action - in my opinion.

[Gozer]

Originally Posted by flambers

It would be great to see Roy sign another long term deal.......... but I doubt this is going to happen.

I'd put it around 50/50, but I'm an eternal optimist.

Originally Posted by flambers

The Jays have to look and see what is the best path to make this team better in the future.

When is the future? September, spring training, four years from now?

Originally Posted by flambers

For the simple reason, its pure asset management. Can the Jays trade Halladay for a better return than the sandwich picks they would receive if he leaves via Free Agency? My bet is, yes they can.

Well, we could probably land more in a trade today for Snider then we'd get from sandwich picks when he leaves as a free agent - but the time between then and now counts too.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Gozer

Well, we could probably land more in a trade today for Snider then we'd get from sandwich picks when he leaves as a free agent - but the time between then and now counts too.

LOL, way to avoid answering the question.

Halladay is going to follow the same path that Burnett took in my opinion.

I personally doubt the Jays have any chance to be a wild card contender next season (i.e. McGowan is done in my view, Litsch is gone for awhile etc......).

If that is the case they have to try to see what is the maximum return can they get for a ace pitcher....

[Gozer]

Originally Posted by flambers

LOL, way to avoid answering the question.

Wow, really? What do I need here, a full freaking essay.

Trading Doc right now would lead to a greater return than trading him next trade deadline or leaving as a free agent. I do not contest that, but I think his contributions to the team are very important (plus he is not a sure bet to leave town like AJ was) and are worth more than a couple of (terrific) prospects that will either tank or want their own big money extension in a couple years.

Originally Posted by flambers

Halladay is going to follow the same path that Burnett took in my opinion.

And Burnett was a wonderful addition to the team while he was here, was worth his contract, and left to chase a payday while we replaced him from within the organization as planned.

That isn't the end of the world *IF* that's the route the Doc takes.

(maybe a little revisionist history on AJ there, but I'm making the point about Doc)

Originally Posted by flambers

I personally doubt the Jays have any chance to be a wild card contender next season (i.e. McGowan is done in my view, Litsch is gone for awhile etc......).

But if we trade our best player then we'll have the Yanks right where we want them!

Originally Posted by flambers

If that is the case they have to try to see what is the maximum return can they get for a ace pitcher....

Wins? Ticket sales? A fanbase? A winning atmosphere?

An ideal role model for the twenty seven* rookie starters that will use his teaching as Blue Jays for the next ten years?

*(approximate number of rookie pitchers that have made a start for the Jays this season)


Would you guys have supported trading Iginla in 2005 when we weren't talented enough to win the Cup, he was at peak value, and his contract was expiring soon?

That's not a sarcastic question, I'd like to know if you thought trading Iggy was prudent or what the big difference is between the situations.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Gozer

Would you guys have supported trading Iginla in 2005 when we weren't talented enough to win the Cup, he was at peak value, and his contract was expiring soon?

That's not a sarcastic question, I'd like to know if you thought trading Iggy was prudent or what the big difference is between the situations.

Two major differences. In hockey you have two ways of getting to the playoffss where you compete against 4 teams in your Division, if you can't get one that way there are 5 other berths against the other 11 teams who don't win their Division too. So due to the larger number of playoff spots in hockey you can still get to the playoffs and have a chance much easier than in Baseball. Especially in the AL East where the two biggest spenders in the game reside, it would be different if the league had a balanced schedule and 4 playoff spots to the top 4 teams.

Second is the economic landscape changed with the cap and linking payrolls to revenue. That essentially allowed a team like the Flames a better chance to compete with the highest revenue teams in the league because those teams spending is limited to the ceiling of the cap. If the cap didn't exist after the 2005 lockout...it's a move the Flames would have been forced to look at a lot more seriously. If MLB had a salary cap of some type...than no way anyone talks of trading Halladay.

[Gozer]

Solid points about the difference between the leagues, but I don't feel my question was really addressed. I'm asking about how the asset was managed.
edit: I suppose you did answer, the difference is the salary cap of the league.

Should the Flames have tried to trade Iggy in 2005 (when, I claim, his situation was comparable to Doc's current situation) for prospects to compete for a cup run in 2008/9/10?



I'm not setting this up to throw "you hate iggy!" in your face or anything - I'm just trying to understand the rationale of trading franchise players for prospects. I think trading Iggy in '05 would make more sense because that team wasn't as close to being contenders as the Jays are right now.

Right now the Jays might have the 4th best team in the league (unfortunately, the other three are in their division) why blow that up? Do we really think that the return on a Doc trade (minus Rolen and other roster turnover) will be the best team in the league in a three years?

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Gozer

Wow, really? What do I need here, a full freaking essay. .

Again, I don't follow your logic.. Posters are talking about trading away the ace pitcher in the staff who has one more year on his contract.

Your reply is trading away a 21 year old prospect for sandwich picks? Who is what 7 years from Free Agency.

Originally Posted by Gozer

Trading Doc right now would lead to a greater return than trading him next trade deadline or leaving as a free agent. I do not contest that, but I think his contributions to the team are very important (plus he is not a sure bet to leave town like AJ was) and are worth more than a couple of (terrific) prospects that will either tank or want their own big money extension in a couple years. .

In my opinion this is the best time to move Halladay.... If they wait till next year his value will drop...

Originally Posted by Gozer

And Burnett was a wonderful addition to the team while he was here, was worth his contract, and left to chase a payday while we replaced him from within the organization as planned. .

Who cares what his value was to the Jays, point is they waited to long and he left leaving them a late first round selection who is probably years and years away. That is nothing more then poor asset management

Originally Posted by Gozer

Would you guys have supported trading Iginla in 2005 when we weren't talented enough to win the Cup, he was at peak value, and his contract was expiring soon?.

Absolutely, if the Flames knew they could not sign Iginla they would have traded him.

However the Comparing the Flames to the Jays is way off....

A better comparison is the Jays versus the Atlanta Thrashers.

[Gozer]

Originally Posted by flambers

Again, I don't follow your logic.. Posters are talking about trading away the ace pitcher in the staff who has one more year on his contract.

Your reply is trading away a 21 year old prospect for sandwich picks? Who is what 7 years from Free Agency.

I'm impressing upon you that I am comparing the value of him playing for us vs. the difference on return.

I understand the difference on return will change (in Doc's or Snider's case), but that is not worth more (in my books) than the value of him playing for us!

Originally Posted by flambers

In my opinion this is the best time to move Halladay.... If they wait till next year his value will drop...

Yes, but that is not the sole factor in this discussion, that is the logic of my Snider comment.

Originally Posted by flambers

Who cares what his value was to the Jays,

Jays fans.

Originally Posted by flambers

Who cares what his value was to the Jays, point is they waited to long and he left leaving them a late first round selection who is probably years and years away. That is nothing more then poor asset management

Asset management case study: AJ Burnett
Assets moved to acquire player: None (maybe a supplemental pick or something)
Player's contribution to team: #2 pitcher for about 2 full seasons (out of 3).
Player's salary: Close to, perhaps below fair market value.
Assets acquired when surrendering player: Supplemental draft pick

What's so poor about that asset management?

Originally Posted by flambers

Absolutely, if the Flames knew they could not sign Iginla they would have traded him.

Who said anything about "knowing they could not resign" anyone?

Doc sure hasn't said that.

Originally Posted by flambers

However the Comparing the Flames to the Jays is way off....

Those comparisons never work, I shouldn't have tried.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Gozer

Right now the Jays might have the 4th best team in the league (unfortunately, the other three are in their division) why blow that up? Do we really think that the return on a Doc trade (minus Rolen and other roster turnover) will be the best team in the league in a three years?

The thing is...Does Roy Halladay believe they are the 4th best team in the American League, and is that enough for him to want to stay with the team. If the answers to those questions are yes, give him the extension and keep him. He's a pretty honorable guy and Ricciardi should have asked him by now and know what the answer to that question is.

Of course as you've stated it's not just about evaluating a potential return based on the players you get back. You have to consider what is the value of having Ricky Romero work alongside Roy Halladay for another year and a half. Since if Halladay was to get traded the Jays would be left with Brian Tallet as your veteran starting pitcher to help mentor the young guys.

[tigger777]

Very well put.
100% agree with you.

Originally Posted by Pagal4321

I just hope if they do trade him, they do their resarch on the prospects they acquire.

And it makes sense to shop him this year, becuase you can get even more for him because he's signed next year for a reasonable salary.

I love Halladay, but the guy deserves to pitch in the playoffs and win a championship!