Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[AFireInside]

This what I expected at this time of the year. Historically this is when the market picks up. I do think that towards end of summer beginning of fall is when we are going to see prices get hammered, although thats no amazing prediction its typically when prices decrease as well.

People who are trying to sell right now should be all over this market and unload their property because once mid summer hits its going to be a lot tougher and prices are going to come down. At least thats what I think will be the case based on what I've seen over the past year at work, and on the research I've been doing since its part of my occupation.

The condo market is going to get the worst of it though.

Obviously predictions mean very little, anything could happen and by the end of summer prices could be up up up. Just keep an eye on the market, and put very little stock in anything you read in the newspapers.

[Mad Mel]

Originally Posted by Claeren

Most interesting will be when baby boomers all start trying to 'cash in' their retirement savings (almost all of which is home equity) in the same 10-20 year period. It will not collapse the market, but I am guessing it will likely keep taking the steam out of any potential near-future bubble (leading to long term flat pricing, and therefore renting being clearly the better option).

I think this will be a huge factor in the Calgary market. It could be considered a good thing that deflated investments have put back many people's retirement by a few years, I suppose. I worry for young folks who bought their first home at inflated prices, it could be a pretty crappy situation.

Are things moving reasonably quickly these days? We sold our properties in Calgary about a year ago, it was quite slow at the time. We did ok on one, but the other we had to take less than we really wanted to.

[OilersBaby]

My dad passed away 3 months ago, my mom is trying to sell her brand new beautiful home in Tuscany (they lived there less than 2 years and had it custom built). Anyways, its been on the market for 1 month and a few people have looked at it, but no offers. Is it hard to sell right now? I am trying to convince my mom to move closer to me for at least 6 months of the year......poor thing, she's grieving and the house keeps reminding her of my daddy. I wish someone would just buy it - it would help her lots.

[Burninator]

Calgary home prices drop steepest in Canada

CALGARY - Calgary led the country in February with the steepest decline in house prices, according to a national report released Wednesday.

The Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index said Calgary house prices fell by 8.1 per cent year-over-year followed by Vancouver at 6.4 per cent and Toronto at five per cent.

The national composite price drop was 4.1 per cent.
Calgary also recorded the biggest drop from peak prices. In the city, house prices have fallen by 12 per cent from the August 2007 peak, followed by a 10.2 per cent decline in Vancouver from its June 2008 peak and a nine per cent drop in Toronto from its peak of August 2008.

On the national level, the report said prices have dropped by 7.4 per cent from their peak in August 2008.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/Calgary...309/story.html

[brownie]

I am looking right now in the SE. Homes that are priced well are moving very quickly. You really have to act fast.

[Tron_fdc]

Huh. I have a rental in Bridlewood that's right in that range......makes me wonder if I should throw it up for sale and see what happens. I could definitely use that equity for some other random project.

[photon]

We're thinking of selling our duplex there too.. hm..

[mykalberta]

Originally Posted by OilersBaby

My dad passed away 3 months ago, my mom is trying to sell her brand new beautiful home in Tuscany (they lived there less than 2 years and had it custom built). Anyways, its been on the market for 1 month and a few people have looked at it, but no offers. Is it hard to sell right now? I am trying to convince my mom to move closer to me for at least 6 months of the year......poor thing, she's grieving and the house keeps reminding her of my daddy. I wish someone would just buy it - it would help her lots.

My parents just built a custom house and from my experience, if your mom is anything like them, if they were to sell it they would be asking way more what what someone would pay. Puter and fancy expensive fixtures look nice, but add very little to the value of the home. The problem is you already paid for them so you know what they cost, a buyer doesnt care about that so much.

Also, for my building in Crescent Heights. Of the 3 units sold. The lowest for a comprable unit to mine sold for 30k more than what I paid for it in March of 2006. That makes me sleep a bit better at night.

[pepper24]

Originally Posted by OilersBaby

My dad passed away 3 months ago, my mom is trying to sell her brand new beautiful home in Tuscany (they lived there less than 2 years and had it custom built). Anyways, its been on the market for 1 month and a few people have looked at it, but no offers. Is it hard to sell right now? I am trying to convince my mom to move closer to me for at least 6 months of the year......poor thing, she's grieving and the house keeps reminding her of my daddy. I wish someone would just buy it - it would help her lots.

Sorry to hear about your dad and the added stress on your mom with selling their home during this difficult time.

I am not a realtor but I am guessing if it's priced right it will sell. In a downwards market it might be best to sell a bit under the average selling price of a comparable house. Your mom might miss out on a few thousand dollars but the peace of mind and ability to move on might be worth it.

I know friends that were too stubborn to list their house at the proper prices and weren't able to sell quickly. As they waited the housing market continued to drop and they are now out over $20,000 by worrying about a few thousand dollars. This is here in Calgary and Kelowna.

[Captaincanada80]

Bump...

Okay, Need the collective thoughts from you CP'ers. First time home buyer here who is looking to get into the market. My current situation is im renting on a M2M lease and have 2 roomies moving out in AUG. Ive been approved for a 250K mortgage but would prefer to keep it lower at around 240K.

Ive found through a reputable builder the exact place im looking for listed at 250K & im about to make my first offer this evening. My questions to all of you

* How much do builders usually look at taking off the list price?
* If im looking at settling at the 240K range, What would be a solid first offer.
* What points do I use as leverage if the rationalle of the offer comes up EG.(I won't be using a real estate agent essentally saving the builder 6K.
* How long do you wait to either counter there offer or call them if you haven't heard on the original?

Once again, I love the area, place is great, builder seems good, great staff but Im not sure where to come in on the offer. I don't want to be insulting, I just want the lowest possible price.

Thanks for the advise and all the help!

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Captaincanada80

Bump...

Okay, Need the collective thoughts from you CP'ers. First time home buyer here who is looking to get into the market. My current situation is im renting on a M2M lease and have 2 roomies moving out in AUG. Ive been approved for a 250K mortgage but would prefer to keep it lower at around 240K.

Ive found through a reputable builder the exact place im looking for listed at 250K & im about to make my first offer this evening. My questions to all of you

* How much do builders usually look at taking off the list price?
* If im looking at settling at the 240K range, What would be a solid first offer.
* What points do I use as leverage if the rationalle of the offer comes up EG.(I won't be using a real estate agent essentally saving the builder 6K.
* How long do you wait to either counter there offer or call them if you haven't heard on the original?

Once again, I love the area, place is great, builder seems good, great staff but Im not sure where to come in on the offer. I don't want to be insulting, I just want the lowest possible price.

Thanks for the advise and all the help!

Get a good realtor to do the negotiations for you. As a buyer, you don't pay commissions.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by troutman

Get a good realtor to do the negotiations for you. As a buyer, you don't pay commissions.

Like he says though, the builder will save ~$5500 if he doesn't buy with a Realtor.

I'd offer 230K. People seem to be big fans of meeting in the middle. Prepare to walk away when they don't drop as fast as you are going up during the negotiation. Near the end of the negotiation tell them 240K, that's all you can do budget wise, so if they can't do it, see yah. Wait for the call to come back with them offering something stupid like 241,500. Tell them again, 240K, that's it. Wait for return phone call again when they say they'll take it.

The good part is buying new there isn't the added pressure of the house you really like dissapearing. You have nothing but time. If you haven't already, get a formal preapproval so you have your rate held.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by hulkrogan

Like he says though, the builder will save ~$5500 if he doesn't buy with a Realtor.

The builder will also know they won't pull anything over on the buyer if he has a realtor.

A realtor might also accept a lower commission if there is not a lot of work involved.

I don't think price is the only important thing to be negotiated. Builder's contracts are notoriously one-sided. It's a buyers market, and you may be able to get concessions you would not have got one year ago (extras, late interest etc).

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by troutman

The builder will also know they won't pull anything over on the buyer if he has a realtor.

A realtor might also accept a lower commission if there is not a lot of work involved.

I don't think price is the only important thing to be negotiated. Builder's contracts are notoriously one-sided. It's a buyers market, and you may be able to get concessions you would not have got one year ago (extras, late interest etc).

Personally I use a lawyer to review the contracts as I don't feel Realtors are qualified to give good advice on that end. The market is getting pretty close to 'balanced' and using the whole 'buyers market' argument doesn't get you far these days. There is often a buyer waiting in line behind you. The average DOM in the complex I just sold in for this month was about a week.

[Captaincanada80]

I would consider myself a good buyer as im not bringing any conditions into the equation. I have all the financial aspect taken care of, and the fact im a first time buyer not waiting on a place to be sold.

I think im going to go in with the approch of 230K on the listed 250K and hope to meet in the middle. The builder will be providing a lawyer to finish the agreement and ill be using my dad (Contractor) to check the build.

Thanks for the advise. Much apprechaited!

[Captaincanada80]

Originally Posted by troutman

I don't think price is the only important thing to be negotiated. Builder's contracts are notoriously one-sided. It's a buyers market, and you may be able to get concessions you would not have got one year ago (extras, late interest etc).

Concessions are nice, But im looking at SPEC homes which are ready to move in. I don't think their will be any additional perks involved.

[mots]

Well seems like most places are selling 96% of list price the last 3 months, as that has been the list price to sale price ration. so you should get yours for $240K. i would start with 10% lower offer if you really want the place, although the last time i was in this situation (late feb), working with one of the best agents in the city, we started with 20% off list price, which got flat out rejected. Then we came back with 15% off list price and ended up paying 91%, so we got 9% off. I think 20% low ball is a good start if i was to do it, worse comes to worse they reject it without a counter offer, and you just put in another offer that is higher. Getting a realtor would benefit you, as he can bring in comparables of what has sold in your area and for how much, to give you more leverage.

[Jedi Ninja]

Originally Posted by troutman

The builder will also know they won't pull anything over on the buyer if he has a realtor.

A realtor might also accept a lower commission if there is not a lot of work involved.

I don't think price is the only important thing to be negotiated. Builder's contracts are notoriously one-sided. It's a buyers market, and you may be able to get concessions you would not have got one year ago (extras, late interest etc).

Actually, in the starter market it's very much a sellers market right now. The market as a whole could probably be called a sellers market right now, albeit at a lower price level than at the peak. Overall, the single family home inventory is now less than 3 months, which is very tight. Yah, I don't get it either, we'll see where it is a year from now.

[AFireInside]

Originally Posted by Jedi Ninja

Actually, in the starter market it's very much a sellers market right now. The market as a whole could probably be called a sellers market right now, albeit at a lower price level than at the peak. Overall, the single family home inventory is now less than 3 months, which is very tight. Yah, I don't get it either, we'll see where it is a year from now.

This is still traditionally a very busy time of year. Later summer early fall will really tell the tale imo.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Captaincanada80

Bump...
Ive found through a reputable builder the exact place im looking for listed at 250K & im about to make my first offer this evening. My questions to all of you

* How much do builders usually look at taking off the list price?
* If im looking at settling at the 240K range, What would be a solid first offer.
* What points do I use as leverage if the rationalle of the offer comes up EG.(I won't be using a real estate agent essentally saving the builder 6K.
* How long do you wait to either counter there offer or call them if you haven't heard on the original?

*Depends where they are priced in relation to comparable. They know how much higher then the market they are (if they are). Do you?

*Again, depends on the answer to your first question, but a 10K off offer isn't low at all based on proportion only. If they're over comparables, you should be going much lower.

*Comparables and comparables only. Not having a realtor shouldn't save you a penny. Why?
-It's illegal for developers to cut you a better deal because you don't have a realtor.
-Often, developers will actually give realtors advantages treatment because they want a good relationship with realtors who will bring back future business.
-Developers will be happy that you as a first time buyer have a realtor to ask all of your questions to, and to take liability for anything that comes up. Otherwise they have to be very careful what they tell you so they don't end up implicitly acting as your agent.

*All offers/counters are made with a time clause that states "open for acceptance until _____" I generally give 48 hours on a first offer, and about 24 on counters.

As a realtor, I recommend you get a realtor. If you think I'm biased, and don't want one anyway, fine. But then at-least find comparables, they are you're best bet for negotiation.