Canada/US trade war brewing

[DementedReality]

so why not join the USA and do away with this issue all together.

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by DementedReality

so why not join the USA and do away with this issue all together.

You know, I wouldn't be surprised if this was a part of it.

The US simply doesn't understand why Canada doesn't simply merge with it like the EU. Common borders, common security measures, common economic zone and common currency. I think things like this are done to remind us that we are not better off without them. Canada tends to cite things like this as reasons NOT to merge. As well, we're pretty hung up on our phantom cultural sovereignty, when reality is, like NAFTA, this would probably be of net benefit to Canada.

Conversely, these things are best negotiated, not in a dangerous tit for tat. I don't think anyone wants a trade war, despite the likely spike in oil prices to follow.

[DementedReality]

i am not an educated economist, what would the pro's and con's be? i think it would make sense economically, what would we be giving up?

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by DementedReality

i am not an educated economist, what would the pro's and con's be? i think it would make sense economically, what would be giving up?

I'm sure someone can do a little better than me, but:

Pros: Cheaper transportation/logistics, purchasing power parity increase with more powerful currency, US currency strenghened by Canadian currency addition, increased tourism, less trade disputes, easier cross-border commerce

Cons: Diminished economic control, diminished currency control (which is probably a good thing, but many see it as a con), diminished control on border security, reliance on the other country to make sound decisions, issues with being tied to a weakening, debt ridden currency.

[HotHotHeat]

Originally Posted by DementedReality

i am not an educated economist, what would the pro's and con's be? i think it would make sense economically, what would we be giving up?

Sovereignty. We'd be joining a currency that is far from fail proof at this point. We would lose control of our borders. Our politics would become dominated by interests that have an emphasis on elsewhere.

I don't mean to fear-monger, there are just as many, if not more benefits to joining. Economically the main advantage would be a freer flow of goods and a true economic integration . . . NAFTA is far from what it could/should be.


Just my thoughts.

[DementedReality]

Originally Posted by HotHotHeat

Sovereignty. We'd be joining a currency that is far from fail proof at this point. We would lose control of our borders. Our politics would become dominated by interests that have an emphasis on elsewhere.

I don't mean to fear-monger, there are just as many, if not more benefits to joining. Economically the main advantage would be a freer flow of goods and a true economic integration . . . NAFTA is far from what it could/should be.


Just my thoughts.

i guess the part i am trying to reconcile is what is the difference to me as a Calgarian if these "protections" dont exist with Toronto and MOntreal? whats the difference, lets trade with New York and California like we trade with Ontario and Quebec ... i dont see why i would fear an open door like we have with the easterners.

does Ottawa look out for our interests and do we have much say in the the vote?

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by DementedReality

i guess the part i am trying to reconcile is what is the difference to me as a Calgarian if these "protections" dont exist with Toronto and MOntreal? whats the difference, lets trade with New York and California like we trade with Ontario and Quebec ... i dont see why i would fear an open door like we have with the easterners.

does Ottawa look out for our interests and do we have much say in the the vote?

From Alberta's point-of-view, we'd essentially be trading one devil for another.

Good thing for us is that Toronto and Montreal wouldn't be able to take advantage of us to further their needs. However, they'd say, at least with the system in place now, the idea is that Canadians profit, even if its not always Albertan Canadians... if we lost some economic control, we could all suffer, which is highly unlikely.

[HOZ]

Originally Posted by Daradon

Don't kid yourself, the republicans would be doing the exact same thing. They threw a WTO ruling back in our face twice during the Bush years.

Like you said 140 pound weakling vs. reigning world champ. Totally right there. I disagree wholeheartedly that it matters who is running the show though. The US will do what it wants. And in the crisis they are in now, they should be for their own people. They're in it worse than we are.

What is needed is a world body with actual teeth to mediate these matters.

Huh? It is the Obama administration for the next 3-7 years. Who else is there? Canada need them to live up to their agreements.

[Huntingwhale]

Sign me up!

[JohnnyFlame]

Originally Posted by Thunderball

From Alberta's point-of-view, we'd essentially be trading one devil for another.

Good thing for us is that Toronto and Montreal wouldn't be able to take advantage of us to further their needs. However, they'd say, at least with the system in place now, the idea is that Canadians profit, even if its not always Albertan Canadians... if we lost some economic control, we could all suffer, which is highly unlikely.

I've always advocated changing one devil for another. We should be very very actively hitting the Asian market. The Euro trade agreement a good move as well. We should be in a position where if country A starts to pull our chain we just flush their crap down the drain by selling more to country B.

[peter12]

A trade war is the last thing we need right now and could end up in problems that take decades to unravel. I guess we should try to go multi-lateral, put our eggs in many baskets.

[HOZ]

Originally Posted by peter12

A trade war is the last thing we need right now and could end up in problems that take decades to unravel. I guess we should try to go multi-lateral, put our eggs in many baskets.

It would be nice but so much of our economy is integrated with the US that this is cutting us off at the waist.

Canadian negotiators need to work fast and get some exemptions for Canada

[jammies]

Canada can hurt the US plenty economically if we wanted to - we are still their biggest trading partner. Obviously they could hurt us much more, but the idea is to threaten and be seen as willing to follow through if necessary.

Restricting the flow of oil all by itself would get the administration's attention. Call it a "moratorium" and tell the US that the oil will resume normal flow when they get serious about adhering to the spirit of NAFTA. Never mind all this conciliatory talk, the US is going to keep pushing until they get pushback.

As far as timing goes, there is probably never going to be another time when the USA has so few solid allies and so poor an economic outlook. This is the time to make it clear that while we will always have an unequal relationship, it is a relationship and not economic slavery. Otherwise we might as well petition to join the US now and get it over with.

[transplant99]

Restricting the flow of oil all by itself would get the administration's attention. Call it a "moratorium" and tell the US that the oil will resume normal flow when they get serious about adhering to the spirit of NAFTA. Never mind all this conciliatory talk, the US is going to keep pushing until they get pushback.

Gigantic mistake.

Threatening the US is akin to poking the neighborhoods richest and biggest resident with a stick and then egging their house.

No question that Canada could hurt the US with such a move....that would then absolutely cripple Canada when the retaliation comes back at them. The US makes up a full 79% of Canada export business. Meanwhile Canada represents about 33% of US exports destinations.

This is all about negotiations and getting things done with your biggest ally....not threatening them.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat...s/ca.html#Econ

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Gigantic mistake.

Threatening the US is akin to poking the neighborhoods richest and biggest resident with a stick and then egging their house.

No question that Canada could hurt the US with such a move....that would then absolutely cripple Canada when the retaliation comes back at them. The US makes up a full 79% of Canada export business. Meanwhile Canada represents about 33% of US exports destinations.

This is all about negotiations and getting things done with your biggest ally....not threatening them.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat...s/ca.html#Econ

Ya, there is really no reason to try and "punish" the U.S. for these trade barriers. It does however show us that we should be taking care of ourselves first and not giving them any preference. The U.S. has proven that they are in it for themselves first... as they should be. It's time for Canada to sever apron strings from the U.S.

[transplant99]

It's time for Canada to sever apron strings from the U.S.

No its not...that would be even more of a mistake IMO.

There is only ONE country Canada has a trade surplus with that amounts to much with...and it isnt overseas. two if you include the UK but IIRC that has changed recently.

Canada has trade deficits with every other single major trade partner...business with the US is very very good for Canada...why screw that up?

These numbers are a few years old...so i suspect because of the recent crisis they may have changed somewhat, but it still puts things in perspective.

As it stands now, the U.S. continues to keep Canada's surplus above water.

Canada ran a healthy surplus of over $100 billion trading with the U.S. in 2005, up over 17% from year 2000. Canada's surplus with the U.K. is much smaller, coming in at about $500 million. Canada's overall surplus in 2005 was some $65 billion.

Read more: "Canada's Trade Buddies: A Fact-based Perspective | Suite101.com" - http://internationaltrade.suite101.c...xzz0FlGbFuLf&A