The ongoing financial turmoil and financial discussion thread

[Agamemnon]

Originally Posted by Azure

Yep, and like I said.....while the price was at $30/bbl....people should have bought in.

Did you buy in then? It almost seems like you're taking a generally known fact and dressing it up as advice.

[twotoner]

Originally Posted by macker

Bernanke said that a positive sign would be when we see the banks going to market to raise money without the help of the government and that is exactly what we have here.

What you had there was banks being overpaid for their worthless crap by the American tax payers so they could BS 1st quarter earnings estimates and in unison effect a short squeeze. So yeah of course the banksters are going back to the markets while they can.

[macker]

Originally Posted by twotoner

What you had there was banks being overpaid for their worthless crap by the American tax payers so they could BS 1st quarter earnings estimates and in unison effect a short squeeze. So yeah of course the banksters are going back to the markets while they can.

http://www.google.ca/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:XLF
Were you on the other side of this trade (see 3 month chart).

[twotoner]

Originally Posted by macker

http://www.google.ca/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:XLF
Were you on the other side of this trade (see 3 month chart).

Was not on either side of any time span on that chart. Just pointing out that this recovery you talk of is a sham, a one hit wonder.

Liddy, CEO from AIG, testified today that AIG's CDS were unwound by the Fed to the banksters at 100 cents on the dollar earlier this year. A Q1 gift funded by the US taxpayers when the market would have only given cents on the dollar. Realize these January gains are not going to recur.
http://cspan.org/Watch/Media/2009/05/13/HP/R/18523/Congress+Questions+AIGs+Progress+Accountability.as px
*Interesting part at about 2:29*

Talk of W, V or even U shaped recovery seems premature:
Foreclosures at record high:
http://topnews.us/content/25197-apri...ext-3-4-months

Retail sales still dropping faster than expected
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/51d0fc28-4...44feabdc0.html

GM next in line for BK:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...ut-may-15.html

U.S. to Toughen Its Stance On Trade
‘Manchurian Candidate’ Starts War on Business
Canada says to spend bulk of stimulus fast
Romania joins list of EU states seeking bailout
Germany confirms Romania in loan talks with IMF
Ukraine Orders 17 Banks to Keep to Central Bank's Currency Exchange Rate
Russia: Medvedev Urges Russians To Hang On Despite Crisis
China: No More Stimulus From Us
Pakistan: Political crisis escalates
Australia: Rann revolt shows up Rudd deal as a sham
Israeli central bank chief presents rescue plan
Israel Bank chief unveils dramatic rescue plan for economy
Turkey: January current account $291 million surplus
Iran approves new $298 billion budget
Roubini: U.S. Banks Already Toast
Text of Citigroup memo sent by CEO Pandit
Citigroup says they were profitable until they weren't
What the Citi Conversion Might Really Mean
AIG: Following the Money
AIG investor Broad abandons hope of recovery
Lloyds says UK asset plan talks "going well"
Banks dive after Lloyds nationalised
UK Pound slips after Lloyds rescue
Banco Popolare Is First in Italy to Seek State Aid
Russian firms struggle to pay debt in full
Bank Negara raided Walton International Property Group
Rural Bank of Polangui (RBP) has P129-M more insured deposits
Warren Buffett: Five years until economy recovers
Citigroup chief and Bernanke lift world markets
Global financial markets lose $50 trillion
Job losses, market falls pile pressure on leaders
IMF warns of global "Great Recession"
Whitney says credit cards are the next credit crunch
U.S. Treasury Bonds Short-term Bounce Continues
PIMCO Raises U.S. Debt Holdings to Highest Since 2007
U.S. Unemployment Rate to Reach 9.4%
U.S. Real Unemployment 19.1%
Hiring outlook hits lowest point in Manpower survey's history
Job Market Plummets in February
Next Shoe to Drop For Job Seekers: Lower Wages
1 in 50 American children experiences homelessness
Mexico's peso weakens to record 15.49 to US dollar
Mexico’s Bonds Fall After Core Inflation Rises to 7-Year High
Ecuador Reserves Drop 13% on Week to $3.48 Billion
Crisis hits Brazilian economic growth
Dire European data point to sharp Q1 contraction
Record euro zone GDP fall confirmed as ECB meets
Euro zone services drop, faster US decline seen
UK Sterling tumbles on dollar and euro
U.K. Savings rates slump to record low
U.K. Manufacturing Drops Most Since at Least 1968
U.K. Home Sales Slip to Record Low as Prices Decline
U.K., French Industrial Production Falls, Worsening Recession
Irish Economy GNP to fall 7.9% in 2009 and 3.4% in 2010
Swedish, Finnish output slumps, no end in sight
Germany: Crisis will hit more than expected
Russia: Ratings agency Fitch sees threat to Russia, other corporate governance
Russia: Dramatic reduction of reserves forecasted
Russia: Real effective rouble rate down 12.9 pct Jan-Feb
Gloom and doom on East European economies
Asian currencies trading at four-year lows

[Table 5]

So what are some good oil/gas related stocks that people here recommend getting into? It's one part of my portfolio that's somewhat lacking at the moment. Any suggestions?

[SeeGeeWhy]

One interesting thing that I am seeing is that the Chinese economy doesn't seem to be as reliant on US economic performance as I thought.

Latin America appears to be stabilizing and so are some European economies (Germany).

The thing that troubles me is that the US got caught in a liar's game, and I don't think their pain is over. The problem with that is that I don't trust the "ethical fabric" of the US corporatocracy for the most part, and I am concerned over what other desperate maneuvers/tactics might get trotted out. When a liar gets caught, he usually doesn't reform overnight - his lies usually get worse...

Fortunately, Obama seems to not be shy about government spending or focusing on the problems at home. He has kept protectionary measures to a minimum, and it sounds like the restructuring of GM and Chrysler will be significant. I don't mind the government getting involved like this. I definitely prefer it over propping up the economy with war.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by twotoner

U.S. to Toughen Its Stance On Trade
‘Manchurian Candidate’ Starts War on Business
Canada says to spend bulk of stimulus fast
Romania joins list of EU states seeking bailout
Germany confirms Romania in loan talks with IMF
Ukraine Orders 17 Banks to Keep to Central Bank's Currency Exchange Rate
Russia: Medvedev Urges Russians To Hang On Despite Crisis
China: No More Stimulus From Us
Pakistan: Political crisis escalates
Australia: Rann revolt shows up Rudd deal as a sham
Israeli central bank chief presents rescue plan
Israel Bank chief unveils dramatic rescue plan for economy
Turkey: January current account $291 million surplus
Iran approves new $298 billion budget
Roubini: U.S. Banks Already Toast
Text of Citigroup memo sent by CEO Pandit
Citigroup says they were profitable until they weren't
What the Citi Conversion Might Really Mean
AIG: Following the Money
AIG investor Broad abandons hope of recovery
Lloyds says UK asset plan talks "going well"
Banks dive after Lloyds nationalised
UK Pound slips after Lloyds rescue
Banco Popolare Is First in Italy to Seek State Aid
Russian firms struggle to pay debt in full
Bank Negara raided Walton International Property Group
Rural Bank of Polangui (RBP) has P129-M more insured deposits
Warren Buffett: Five years until economy recovers
Citigroup chief and Bernanke lift world markets
Global financial markets lose $50 trillion
Job losses, market falls pile pressure on leaders
IMF warns of global "Great Recession"
Whitney says credit cards are the next credit crunch
U.S. Treasury Bonds Short-term Bounce Continues
PIMCO Raises U.S. Debt Holdings to Highest Since 2007
U.S. Unemployment Rate to Reach 9.4%
U.S. Real Unemployment 19.1%
Hiring outlook hits lowest point in Manpower survey's history
Job Market Plummets in February
Next Shoe to Drop For Job Seekers: Lower Wages
1 in 50 American children experiences homelessness
Mexico's peso weakens to record 15.49 to US dollar
Mexico’s Bonds Fall After Core Inflation Rises to 7-Year High
Ecuador Reserves Drop 13% on Week to $3.48 Billion
Crisis hits Brazilian economic growth
Dire European data point to sharp Q1 contraction
Record euro zone GDP fall confirmed as ECB meets
Euro zone services drop, faster US decline seen
UK Sterling tumbles on dollar and euro
U.K. Savings rates slump to record low
U.K. Manufacturing Drops Most Since at Least 1968
U.K. Home Sales Slip to Record Low as Prices Decline
U.K., French Industrial Production Falls, Worsening Recession
Irish Economy GNP to fall 7.9% in 2009 and 3.4% in 2010
Swedish, Finnish output slumps, no end in sight
Germany: Crisis will hit more than expected
Russia: Ratings agency Fitch sees threat to Russia, other corporate governance
Russia: Dramatic reduction of reserves forecasted
Russia: Real effective rouble rate down 12.9 pct Jan-Feb
Gloom and doom on East European economies
Asian currencies trading at four-year lows

From what I can see almost all of these articles are from March 9/10...about the time the market hit rock bottom (at least so far). So clearly investor sentiment was low then and the outlook wasn't nearly as positive as it is today in most peoples eyes.

I am not disagreeing that we could still drop a fair amount; I'm not sure that puts the TSX back in the 7000's, but its possible of course. I just think that to base a potential market drop on information from these dates is kind of pointless?

[smith12]

Originally Posted by Slava

From what I can see almost all of these articles are from March 9/10...about the time the market hit rock bottom (at least so far). So clearly investor sentiment was low then and the outlook wasn't nearly as positive as it is today in most peoples eyes.

I am not disagreeing that we could still drop a fair amount; I'm not sure that puts the TSX back in the 7000's, but its possible of course. I just think that to base a potential market drop on information from these dates is kind of pointless?

Ya, anything is possible at this point but all the leading indicators of late (other than yesterday's consumer spending) have been positive. The stock market had already factored in a possible depression and it's quite likley that's not going to happen. General concensus is that the economy is starting to turn the corner and we haven't even felt the impact of trillions of stimulus spending. Once that happens and if the credit markets totally open up you're going to see a quick recovery - probably q3 of 2010. There's just too much money in the money supply to be lent out at unheard of rates for things not to eventually start moving.

The real problem is going to be in 2011/12 when inflation starts to ramp up..........

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by SeeGeeWhy

One interesting thing that I am seeing is that the Chinese economy doesn't seem to be as reliant on US economic performance as I thought.

Let's not pretend to trust anything the Chinese government says in regards to GDP there.

China has closed thousands of factories since the start of the recession. Unemployment there is soaring.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by smith12

Ya, anything is possible at this point but all the leading indicators of late (other than yesterday's consumer spending) have been positive. The stock market had already factored in a possible depression and it's quite likley that's not going to happen. General concensus is that the economy is starting to turn the corner and we haven't even felt the impact of trillions of stimulus spending. Once that happens and if the credit markets totally open up you're going to see a quick recovery - probably q3 of 2010. There's just too much money in the money supply to be lent out at unheard of rates for things not to eventually start moving.

The real problem is going to be in 2011/12 when inflation starts to ramp up..........

Actually most of the leading indicators I've seen are still negative? But you know what they say...."If you spend 13 minutes a year analyzing economic indicators you've wasted about 10 minutes".

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Agamemnon

Did you buy in then? It almost seems like you're taking a generally known fact and dressing it up as advice.

Talking to a lot of people, they listened to what the media was saying about doom and gloom, and didn't take a few risks with the stock market.

While the price of oil would have gone up eventually, it could have taken longer. Considering the media was overhyping the recession to the point of calling it a depression, a lot of people didn't stick their money into stuff like oil stock while it was worth very little.

Not that everyone did that.....I'm just making an observation based on what I've heard.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Table 5

So what are some good oil/gas related stocks that people here recommend getting into? It's one part of my portfolio that's somewhat lacking at the moment. Any suggestions?

Without even looking at any info, I would think Suncor because of their merger with Petro.

Could be wrong though.

OPEC wants the oil price back at $70-$80/bbl.....so any oil stock would be good right now. Companies like Halliburton have also done really well the last 3 months.

[Bobblehead]

I'm kind of hoping it stays down for a little while, for purely selfish reasons. I don't believe my job is in any jeopardy, my mortgage payments are low, and every 2 weeks I have an automatic withdrawal dumping into my RRSP.

If you aren't in financial problems, this is a great time to have a little extra money.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Bobblehead

I'm kind of hoping it stays down for a little while, for purely selfish reasons. I don't believe my job is in any jeopardy, my mortgage payments are low, and every 2 weeks I have an automatic withdrawal dumping into my RRSP.

If you aren't in financial problems, this is a great time to have a little extra money.

I'm kind of hoping that it continues to go down slowly for rest of my life. I'll be buying for that long anyway, so it would be best if the prices kept dropping for me.

[macker]

[quote=twotoner;1850133]Was not on either side of any time span on that chart. Just pointing out that this recovery you talk of is a sham, a one hit wonder.

Liddy, CEO from AIG, testified today that AIG's CDS were unwound by the Fed to the banksters at 100 cents on the dollar earlier this year. A Q1 gift funded by the US taxpayers when the market would have only given cents on the dollar. Realize these January gains are not going to recur.
http://cspan.org/Watch/Media/2009/05/13/HP/R/18523/Congress+Questions+AIGs+Progress+Accountability.as px
*Interesting part at about 2:29*

Talk of W, V or even U shaped recovery seems premature:
Foreclosures at record high:
http://topnews.us/content/25197-apri...ext-3-4-months

Retail sales still dropping faster than expected
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/51d0fc28-4...44feabdc0.html

GM next in line for BK:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...ut-may-15.html




I am surely not going to profit from reading yesterdays negative headlines Whatever happened to now? The US financials, however, are now a short until further notice as they might be a short term sham. I agree they are diluting these shares and look at Citi who is going to issue 1.6 billion more shares than it had previously and it is a broken company. On the flip side look at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as they are the providers of liquidity for the entire market now and they are survivors and will do well. Calling the recovery a sham is like saying every team in the NHL sucks. Pick the leaders as they will lead the recovery....

[Tron_fdc]

Originally Posted by Bobblehead

I'm kind of hoping it stays down for a little while, for purely selfish reasons. I don't believe my job is in any jeopardy, my mortgage payments are low, and every 2 weeks I have an automatic withdrawal dumping into my RRSP.

If you aren't in financial problems, this is a great time to have a little extra money.

100% agree with that. I've taken a paycut, but with the decrease in workload and the low prices I can find on pretty much anything I want it's totally worth it. For a single guy with no kids, all I had to do was adjust my spending from "out of control reckless" to just pretty much reckless.

The reduced stress level alone is worth my pay reduction though.

[SeeGeeWhy]

Originally Posted by Shazam

Let's not pretend to trust anything the Chinese government says in regards to GDP there.

China has closed thousands of factories since the start of the recession. Unemployment there is soaring.

Didn't say they aren't suffering, but it appears that they aren't as deep in le crappier as our friends to the south are.

[smith12]

Originally Posted by Slava

Actually most of the leading indicators I've seen are still negative? But you know what they say...."If you spend 13 minutes a year analyzing economic indicators you've wasted about 10 minutes".

That's a fair statement. I guess what I meant to say was that things are not as bad as most analysts were predicting. Which in turn means things are getting better than what they were which was one of the largest economic contractions in the last 100 years. So I guess it's not really saying much.

Also, Bernanke came out last week and said he was seeing some "encouraging" signs in the economy. I do take that with a grain of salt as I think he just makes positive statements to alter consumer sediment for the better.......

[twotoner]

Originally Posted by macker

Calling the recovery a sham is like saying every team in the NHL sucks. Pick the leaders as they will lead the recovery....

The recovery is a sham. The first few links I posted show the US government inflated the earnings of the banks in Q1 through tax payer funded AIG CDS settlements way above market value.

When it tanks again, attendance and profits at even the best teams will suffer. Same thing goes for your favourite *Market Leaders*
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2009-04-29-mlb-attendance_N.htm

People talk about more liquidity being pumped into the system. It isn't enough, most major banks right now are INSOLVENT. Even the phony stress tests showed this. Banks receiving money are hanging on to it. Even more telling, there aren't enough qualified borrowers available to lend to.

Latest employment data in the US was yet again revised downward to 637,000 lost in April.

Here's some more current links:

Five reasons why the rally could fizzle (Marketwatch)
GM sends termination notices to 1,100 dealers (Bloomberg, AP)
Europe economy contracts the most since 1995, at 2.5% (Bloomberg)
The retrospective massaging of economic data by the Government (Financial Armageddon)
The upcoming 81% tax increase (Forbes)

[Slava]

Originally Posted by twotoner

The recovery is a sham. The first few links I posted show the US government inflated the earnings of the banks in Q1 through tax payer funded AIG CDS settlements way above market value.

When it tanks again, attendance and profits at even the best teams will suffer. Same thing goes for your favourite *Market Leaders*
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2009-04-29-mlb-attendance_N.htm

People talk about more liquidity being pumped into the system. It isn't enough, most major banks right now are INSOLVENT. Even the phony stress tests showed this. Banks receiving money are hanging on to it. Even more telling, there aren't enough qualified borrowers available to lend to.

Latest employment data in the US was yet again revised downward to 637,000 lost in April.

Here's some more current links:

Five reasons why the rally could fizzle (Marketwatch)
GM sends termination notices to 1,100 dealers (Bloomberg, AP)
Europe economy contracts the most since 1995, at 2.5% (Bloomberg)
The retrospective massaging of economic data by the Government (Financial Armageddon)
The upcoming 81% tax increase (Forbes)

I'm not going to quibble on whether the recovery is legit or not. In Canada the scenario is very different though, and investors should bear that fact in mind.

The line that I bolded though is right, but kind of misleading. Almost all banks are always insolvent in practice. That is why there is such an issue when there is a run on the banks. I think that this speaks for itself, but I can explain a little further if you like.