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Old 04-19-2009, 02:40 PM   #61
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Sure they promote suicide and martyrdom, but only among the poor and the gullible. Those guys in power aren't actually going to die for the cause or sacrifice anything. They aren't going to commit suicide by firing a nuke anywhere.

They are the Iranian version of the chickenhawks. They talk a big game and have no qualms sending other people into harm's way, but they'll be damned if they are going to do it themselves. Hell, look how old they all are.

That being said, I don't want them armed either, but if they get a bomb, they aren't going to just fire away, as the suggestion seems to be.
I think it's been established that actually adjusting for income/education, you find an increase in radicalism.
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Old 04-19-2009, 02:47 PM   #62
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I think it's been established that actually adjusting for income/education, you find an increase in radicalism.
I've actually heard that too. How about "among the stupid and gullible"?
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Old 04-19-2009, 03:04 PM   #63
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I've actually heard that too. How about "among the stupid and gullible"?
Well, what's stupid and gullible? Some of these guys have been smart enough to hijack airplanes and fly them into skyscrapers. I probably don't have the technical skills to figure that out.
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Old 04-19-2009, 03:10 PM   #64
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Well if it's not stupid, is it smart? They killed themselves for a ridiculous cause and I have no doubt that they didn't get the reward they were expecting. Smart enough to fly a plane, too stupid to see reality.

As for gullible, well, someone convinced them this was a good idea.
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Old 04-19-2009, 03:16 PM   #65
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You might believe they didn't get their reward. Doesn't mean they didn't believe it till they flew into those towers, and it doesn't mean all the people who follow in their path don't STILL believe it.
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Old 04-19-2009, 03:21 PM   #66
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Well if it's not stupid, is it smart? They killed themselves for a ridiculous cause and I have no doubt that they didn't get the reward they were expecting. Smart enough to fly a plane, too stupid to see reality.

As for gullible, well, someone convinced them this was a good idea.
They struck an immense and deadly blow to an imperial power that before was considered all but indestructible.

I think in the philosophical or "spiritual" sense, these people are very, very stupid. Like Hitler.
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Old 04-19-2009, 03:23 PM   #67
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You might believe they didn't get their reward. Doesn't mean they didn't believe it till they flew into those towers, and it doesn't mean all the people who follow in their path don't STILL believe it.
Oh I'm sure they believed it. I never said otherwise. They were wrong though. And so are all the people who follow in their path.
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Old 04-19-2009, 03:29 PM   #68
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They struck an immense and deadly blow to an imperial power that before was considered all but indestructible.
Fair enough. But they were also incinerated in the process, so what's the fun in that?

I'm not saying they weren't successful at what they were doing. Mission: Accomplished for those loons. But the mission was obviously wrong to begin with, the motivation ridiculous and the outcome, far as the guys on the plane are concerned, not good.
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Old 04-19-2009, 03:32 PM   #69
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Fair enough. But they were also incinerated in the process, so what's the fun in that?

I'm not saying they weren't successful at what they were doing. Mission: Accomplished for those loons. But the mission was obviously wrong to begin with, the motivation ridiculous and the outcome, far as the guys on the plane are concerned, not good.
I agree, but it is clear that from a strategic perspective, their actions were rational. I think it's very possible, indeed likely, that the political leadership of Iran may share the same perspective.
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Old 04-19-2009, 04:07 PM   #70
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I agree, but it is clear that from a strategic perspective, their actions were rational. I think it's very possible, indeed likely, that the political leadership of Iran may share the same perspective.
Maybe they do. They do talk the talk.

Look, I'm not one to defend a theocracy and I think they are crazy, but not crazy enough to volunteer to become a parking lot.

A lot of people seem to be of the opinion that Iran is racing towards having a nuclear weapon, and the day it comes off the assembly line they are going to fire it at Israel. I just don't believe it.

What's in it for them? In reality, what do they get out of it? They get dead. That's it. Hell, they won't even know if the damn thing went off.

I know I know, paradise and virgins. Maybe why I don't believe it is because I think that deep down, almost all religious fanatics have a thought running somewhere back there that says "keep it up, but you know this is really a bunch of crap". They won't make that ultimate sacrifice, when push comes to shove, because they don't really believe it.

A man with grey hair doesn't believe it, no matter what he says.
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Old 04-19-2009, 05:37 PM   #71
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Oh I'm sure they believed it. I never said otherwise. They were wrong though. And so are all the people who follow in their path.
Well, that is the beauty of educated thought, and a free country.

With time, sure more and more people around the world are going to realize that. Doesn't mean we won't have a conflict on our hands though.
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Old 04-19-2009, 05:39 PM   #72
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Yeah, thats the thing of it. If Iran sanctions terrorism to the point of giving terrorists a nuclear weapon, they very obviously risk turning their country into a parking lot either by the US, Israel, Britain, or NATO in general.

Its the ultimate standoff. Does Obama authorize the use of nuclear weapons against Iran if a dirty bomb goes off in New York? If Iran thinks he won't, or any other country won't, outside of Israel, they WILL attack, because they have nothing to fear.
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Old 04-19-2009, 05:54 PM   #73
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Actually I think the fact that these bozos flew those planes where they did shows exactly how serious these radicals are about their own lives or anybody ele's.

how did they know that the US wouldn't respond with a nuke back then?

The whole point is that they simply dont care enough about human life, their own or any body else's, to not be stupid enough to launch any weapon they get their hands on. I dont care if we are talking about their leaders or not, afterall who are the leaders? Clerics whom are the ones who preach annihalation of Israel etc etc.
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Old 04-19-2009, 06:01 PM   #74
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Its the ultimate standoff. Does Obama authorize the use of nuclear weapons against Iran if a dirty bomb goes off in New York?
How does one prove it originated from Iran? India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons and ######s to use them as well. Iran would just throw there hands up as say..."wasn't from us" and snicker.
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Old 04-19-2009, 06:26 PM   #75
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The whole point is that they simply dont care enough about human life, their own or any body else's, to not be stupid enough to launch any weapon they get their hands on.
Then what are they waiting for? They've got their hands on plenty of weapons right now and they've been collecting dust for years. Why don't they use them?
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Old 04-19-2009, 06:45 PM   #76
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How does one prove it originated from Iran? India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons and ######s to use them as well. Iran would just throw there hands up as say..."wasn't from us" and snicker.
Yeah, and you have that problem too.
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Old 04-19-2009, 07:23 PM   #77
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How does one prove it originated from Iran? India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons and ######s to use them as well. Iran would just throw there hands up as say..."wasn't from us" and snicker.
It's actually can be done.

Nuclear forensics it's called:

http://cisac.stanford.edu/events/nuc..._an_explosion/

Each reactor should leave a signature on the nuclear material in its processing. It can't be done with 100% certainty, but it is possible.
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Old 04-19-2009, 09:06 PM   #78
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It's actually can be done.

Nuclear forensics it's called:

http://cisac.stanford.edu/events/nuc..._an_explosion/

Each reactor should leave a signature on the nuclear material in its processing. It can't be done with 100% certainty, but it is possible.
I wouldn't be very confident that nuclear forensics would work with a "dirty" bomb, Remember,you don't need weapons grade Uranium to make one. Iran probably could make one right now with enough of the radioactive material cesium-137 to send most of population of Israel running for 50 years and it's doubtful it could be tracked to an Iranian reactor.
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Old 04-19-2009, 09:44 PM   #79
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I wouldn't be very confident that nuclear forensics would work with a "dirty" bomb, Remember,you don't need weapons grade Uranium to make one. Iran probably could make one right now with enough of the radioactive material cesium-137 to send most of population of Israel running for 50 years and it's doubtful it could be tracked to an Iranian reactor.
Very true.

Also, if you consider the knowledge that this forensics exists, it means that the only way you can reasonably expect to make an attack like this and avoid a counterattack is to establish plausible deniable. It would be completely foolhardy to use nuclear material from your own reactors. Even using material from a foreign source, like old soviet warhead purchased on the black market for example, or having some nuclear material "fall off the truck" when it is being sunk to the bottom of the ocean, there are so many ways of tracing it back to your doorstep.

The only way to avoid a counter attack IMHO is to have the operation so distantly separated from your national affairs that it could never be connected. I think that would be borderline impossible given the efforts the US and other nations have certainly put into intel and policing in these areas..

edit: I just realized that I probably just summarized 2 Tom Clancy novels and the movie Peacemaker in this post.
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Old 04-19-2009, 09:52 PM   #80
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How does one prove it originated from Iran? India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons and ######s to use them as well. Iran would just throw there hands up as say..."wasn't from us" and snicker.
Something that big would leak. They could use nuclear forensics or signal intelligence or good old fashion police work.

Time in this case would be on the side of the investigators.

Lets say that its one of Iran's surrogate groups that they fund that used a russian missing nuke or materials from pakistan.

Iran would be guilty due to their funding of the groups operation. Iran would be given a time limit to run the group to the ground, if they refused.

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