Prospect Depth and the 2009 Draft

[Tilley]

http://flames.nhl.com/team/app/?serv...ticleid=413047

Article on the Flames homepage including an interesting comment by Sutter regarding the prospect depth at center:

“When you see Mikael Backlund and Mitch Wahl and (John) Armstrong, you know where you are going forward,” Sutter said. “It’s not just about now. It’s about always going forward.”

This was touched on on deadline day about being able to trade away Lombardi in part because of Backlund, Wahl, and Armstrong. I have to agree that I like the young center prospects in addition to Sutter and maybe even Aaron Marvin. As a result of the depth of center prospects it allowed Sutter to attain a first line center for the first time since Neiuwendyk.

Related to this topic the Flames draft will be considerably less interesting unless moves are made to bring in additional picks. Currently the Flames 2009 draft looks like this (correct me if I'm wrong):

1st (optional to Pho)
2nd (to Col for Leopold)
3rd (from Pho - like a late 2nd rounder)
3rd (to Philly for Vandermeer)
4th (from Columbus)
4th
5th
6th
7th

The 2010 draft will look like:
1st (optional to Pho)
2nd (likely to Chi for Bourque)
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th

[flambers]

I would bet when the 2009 draft comes around, Sutter will make another trade to acquire another 2009 draft pick.....

[Canada 02]

I would bet that Sutter keeps the 1st rounder this year, simply because it is better to have your prospect now vs. 12 months from now

[Hustle]

Originally Posted by Canada 02

I would bet that Sutter keeps the 1st rounder this year, simply because it is better to have your prospect now vs. 12 months from now

I'm not sure about that. From what I remember the 2009 draft is a bit on the weaker side.. while the 2010 draft is supposed to be strong (although it's still a long time off). Probably want to keep the 1st in 2010.. especially if we do end up winning the division this year and end up with a late 1st.

Actually, the reality is that Sutter will move the pick for this sole reason.... we're picking 30th overall this year

[Da_Chief]

^ Don't think so. 2009 draft is VERY strong.

Does anyone know the deadline when Sutter has to make up his mind? Can it be decided at the draft?

Colorado got Mtl 2nd from us. I think ours is with LA.

[Flame4Ever]

The Flames certainly have good depth down the middle, and on the back end, but other positions are certainly weak.


Centre:

• Backlund (top 6 guy, will turn pro and has a decent chance of making the team next year)
• Armstrong (already a pro and improving should be a good 3rd line guy)
• Wahl ( shows offensive potential, but hasn't really taken a big step this year should make a decent middle 6 pivot)
• Sutter (couple cups of coffee and shown he has 3rd line upside)
• Peters (4th line/call up guy, but nothing more)
• Marvin (breaking out at the NCAA level this year)
• Carpentier (needs to show more at the pro level)
• Lance Bouma (really stagnated this year before injury)

Goal:

• Irving (Rookie pro with a lot of good potential and making good progress, likely a solid #1 guy, but needs to prove he can be an elite game breaker if he wants to take the next step)
• Keetley (Potential #1 goalie, but has suffered a slump in second pro season and needs to rebound next year)
• Spratt (Averag prospect likely to be a carrer minor league guy)

Defence:

• Pelech (Stay at home guy in the Regher mold, a bit of a slip in his second season after a good showing in camp)
• John Negrin (Smooth skating, puck moving 2 way guy, lots of potential, but needs to continue developing at the pro level to become a solid top3 option
• Keith Aulie (Huge shutdown guy with all the tools, should be a great pro next year)
• Brett Palin (AHL all star this year, possibly a 6/7 guy next year)
• Gord Baldwin (big frame with the potential to be a decent bottom 3 option but needs to continue to show progress)
• TJ Brodie (Excellent rushing and puck-moving prospect, will likely stay and continue to develop in the OHL, looking forward to a PPG or better pace next year)
• Deilert (Seems to be too good for SEL U20 Junior hockey and is starting to play against men, albeit in Norway)

RW:

• Greg Nemisz (Likely a Mike Knuble or slightly better type forward, still learning to use his size effectively but has the shot and stickhandling of a top 6 guy, skating has improved greatly , still hoping for a mean streak)
• David Van der Gulik (couple of cups of coffe and has looked good, will likely be a great energy player in the near future)
• Kris Chucko (Starting to show something at the pro level, still a project but seems to be getting back on track)
• JD Watt (Seems to be proving me wrong with a solid pro season of agitating, hitting a nd fighting, still needs to show some offence to make it to the bigs and improve his skating)

LW:

• Kyle Greentree (Great pickup and is having a very good sophmore season, if he can improve his quickness will make a good NHL player)
• Jordan Fulton (Slight Improvement since being shifted to wing, but nothing to write home about)
• Nick Larson (is said to be a Holmstrom type of forward, but lack of statistical progress is somewhat concerning)

Really thin down the wings and could use a reinjection into our goalie system.

[Da_Chief]

Originally Posted by Flame4Ever

The Flames certainly have good depth down the middle, and on the back end, but other positions are certainly weak.


Centre:

• Backlund (top 6 guy, will turn pro and has a decent chance of making the team next year)
• Armstrong (already a pro and improving should be a good 3rd line guy)
• Wahl ( shows offensive potential, but hasn't really taken a big step this year should make a decent middle 6 pivot)
• Sutter (couple cups of coffee and shown he has 3rd line upside)
• Peters (4th line/call up guy, but nothing more)
• Marvin (breaking out at the NCAA level this year)
• Carpentier (needs to show more at the pro level)
• Lance Bouma (really stagnated this year before injury)

Goal:

• Irving (Rookie pro with a lot of good potential and making good progress, likely a solid #1 guy, but needs to prove he can be an elite game breaker if he wants to take the next step)
• Keetley (Potential #1 goalie, but has suffered a slump in second pro season and needs to rebound next year)
• Spratt (Averag prospect likely to be a carrer minor league guy)

Defence:

• Pelech (Stay at home guy in the Regher mold, a bit of a slip in his second season after a good showing in camp)
• John Negrin (Smooth skating, puck moving 2 way guy, lots of potential, but needs to continue developing at the pro level to become a solid top3 option
• Keith Aulie (Huge shutdown guy with all the tools, should be a great pro next year)
• Brett Palin (AHL all star this year, possibly a 6/7 guy next year)
• Gord Baldwin (big frame with the potential to be a decent bottom 3 option but needs to continue to show progress)
• TJ Brodie (Excellent rushing and puck-moving prospect, will likely stay and continue to develop in the OHL, looking forward to a PPG or better pace next year)
• Deilert (Seems to be too good for SEL U20 Junior hockey and is starting to play against men, albeit in Norway)

RW:

• Greg Nemisz (Likely a Mike Knuble or slightly better type forward, still learning to use his size effectively but has the shot and stickhandling of a top 6 guy, skating has improved greatly , still hoping for a mean streak)
• David Van der Gulik (couple of cups of coffe and has looked good, will likely be a great energy player in the near future)
• Kris Chucko (Starting to show something at the pro level, still a project but seems to be getting back on track)
• JD Watt (Seems to be proving me wrong with a solid pro season of agitating, hitting a nd fighting, still needs to show some offence to make it to the bigs and improve his skating)

LW:

• Kyle Greentree (Great pickup and is having a very good sophmore season, if he can improve his quickness will make a good NHL player)
• Jordan Fulton (Slight Improvement since being shifted to wing, but nothing to write home about)
• Nick Larson (is said to be a Holmstrom type of forward, but lack of statistical progress is somewhat concerning)

Really thin down the wings and could use a reinjection into our goalie system.

Thats a good post but you have to take into account the big club as well.

When healthy:

G:
Kipper - Signed for few more years, so really unless he blows it we won't need a #1 for 3-4 more years at minimum.
McElhinney - The jury is out on him since Kipper plays so many games, he doesn't play. His future will be decided in the off-season.

So the #1 won't be needed for awhile, in the mean time more guys can be drafted and developed. Irving is coming along nicely though.

Wing:
Iginla - No explanation needed.
Bourque - Showed signs of top 6, western Canadian, keeper.
Boyd - If he hits the gym this summer and gets stronger, he can replace Cammi on the top line.
Moss - Great compliment player, will be a decent 50 point player.
Glencross - Fans love him, team loves him, he likes it. Keeper.
Nystrom - Great energy player.

So really 6 of the 8 wing spots are taken with 5 of them capable of handling the top 6 spots and many guys like Greentree, Chucko, VDG etc coming along. Still an area of focus and should be stocked.

Center:
Joker - He'll put a smile on your face.
Langkow - Here for awhile after signing discount contract.
Conroy - Re-energized and playing great, good third line center till Sutter, Peters etc take over.

Like you said, center is a strong position.

Defense:
Robyn, Dion, Pardy, Sarich, Giordano are here long-term I believe.
With re-signing options on Leopold.

So barring a trade, 5 of those spots are locked up.

So really I believe we have guys capable of filling in and just need to take the BPA and keep chugging.

[Tilley]

The emergence of youth in Calgary skews the depth of the wing prospects for the Flames. Wing prospects like Greentree, Nemisz and Larson don't have to be rushed because Iginla is going nowhere for another four years and Nystrom, Moss, Bourque, and Glencross have added youthful depth to the organization. Centres prospects like Wahl and Armstrong can also be brought along slowly because the Flames already have Boyd in Calgary. Backlund will also have time to mature (either in the QC or on the wing in Calgary) with Langkow and the addition of Jokinen.

I agree that our wing prospects currently look thin, however moving Armstrong (who was listed as a RW/C for the draft) and/or Marvin to the wings would bolster our bookend prospects.

I imagine choosing the option to make the pick in 2009 will be made when the playoffs end for Calgary. If the Flames win the division or go on a playoff run I would expect Sutter to hand over the 1st rounder to Phoenix this year. If Calgary has another one and out playoff I wouldn't be surprised to see Sutter take this years pick and take a wing. Everything I have read indicates this draft has high end skill but the depth isn't as good as 2008 or 2010. The 2010 draft is supposed to have more high end depth so I can see Sutter wanting to have a 1st.

My prediction for the 2009 draft for Calgary is that they will give up the 1st this year and select wingers with the early round picks. I also think Sutter will select a goaltender with a 4th or 5th rounder to replace Lalande. I also think Sutter has the inside track on a couple of NCAA free agents (hopefully Bozak) since he will have a number of contracts coming off the books and only Grantham, Backlund, Negrin, and Aulie graduating to the pros.

[stacey]

Originally Posted by Canada 02

I would bet that Sutter keeps the 1st rounder this year, simply because it is better to have your prospect now vs. 12 months from now

I hope they give away 2009's pick makes more sense. But I aslo hope they don't turn into the old Leaf's and trade #1 picks every year.

[Da_Chief]

Tilley, where did you hear about Sutter having an inside track on Bozak? It would be great if Sutter can grab on of those big Ufa prospects, it would be great. Another guy is a goalie in Sweden, Gustafsson. There was supposedly 30 scouts watching him the other night in his teams playoff opener

[Tilley]

Pure speculation on my part.

Good western Canadian kid who put up points before getting injured. Probably scared some teams away, however Sutter has a history of signing players who have had significant injuries. There is a hole on the QC team for a young top six center, so Bozak could step in right away and contribute. Also, money won't be much of an issue as he will be turning 23 this year and will have to sign a standard entry level contract.

Whether Bozak signs with the Flames or not I expect Sutter to sign at least one free agent (either a CHL overager or a NCAA) forward to boost the offence of the AHL team.

[Canada 02]

Originally Posted by Tilley

I also think Sutter has the inside track on a couple of NCAA free agents (hopefully Bozak)

some college free agents:

http://www.westerncollegehockeyblog....le-free-agents

[Flame4Ever]

I wouldn't mind Sutter truing to bring Pustinen back. Guy has it in him to be a 20-20-40 guy in the NHL if he develops nicely IMO.
He's currently second on his team in scoring this year in the Finish SM Liga with 14G and 20 A in 53 GP. He's got a great shot and played a good grittty 2 way game with Kelowna when he was here.

[bubbsy]

if sutter can make pick's like David Moss in the 7th round and have him blossom into the 20goal getter this year (possibly last year too if it wasn't for injuries getting the better of him), we should be fine without one of our 1st rounders next year

[Canada 02]

Originally Posted by Flame4Ever

I wouldn't mind Sutter truing to bring Pustinen back.

he wanted first round money. if he was reasonable, he would have been signed instead of Carpentier (i suspect)

[cross16]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

if sutter can make pick's like David Moss in the 7th round and have him blossom into the 20goal getter this year (possibly last year too if it wasn't for injuries getting the better of him), we should be fine without one of our 1st rounders next year

David Moss was actually a Button pick. He was here before Sutter was.

The Flames have the dept to withstand losing a first rounder, but IMO in next year's draft not this one. From everything i've read, 09 is a very strong and deep draft year, but 2010 is a softer year. Unless he can swing some deal, which i see as very unlikely giving there isn't that much to give up, i don't see him acquiring another pick this year that would make it easier to give up this years pick. I say keep it beucae even in the 25 -30 range, there is alot of talent in this years draft.

As far as needs go, they are still short on top 6 forward. I only count maybe 3 (Backlund, Nemisz, Wahl) in the system. Wing depth is a concern, and I don't think they have a top pairing two way style dman. I thik they have alot of solid top 4 defensive dmen, and the odd puck mover (Brodier, Deilert) but not that blend type. Negrin is close, but I question his offensive output at the next level.

Needs if you want to classify them.
1. Scoring/Offensive wingers
2. Top pairing/ Two way dmen.
3.. Scoring Wingers (clearly a big need)
4. Wing depth
5. Goalie
6. Defensive dmen.

[prizefighterinferno]

Originally Posted by cross16

David Moss was actually a Button pick. He was here before Sutter was.

The Flames have the dept to withstand losing a first rounder, but IMO in next year's draft not this one. From everything i've read, 09 is a very strong and deep draft year, but 2010 is a softer year. Unless he can swing some deal, which i see as very unlikely giving there isn't that much to give up, i don't see him acquiring another pick this year that would make it easier to give up this years pick. I say keep it beucae even in the 25 -30 range, there is alot of talent in this years draft.

As far as needs go, they are still short on top 6 forward. I only count maybe 3 (Backlund, Nemisz, Wahl) in the system. Wing depth is a concern, and I don't think they have a top pairing two way style dman. I thik they have alot of solid top 4 defensive dmen, and the odd puck mover (Brodier, Deilert) but not that blend type. Negrin is close, but I question his offensive output at the next level.

Needs if you want to classify them.
1. Scoring/Offensive wingers
2. Top pairing/ Two way dmen.
3.. Scoring Wingers (clearly a big need)
4. Wing depth
5. Goalie
6. Defensive dmen.

In terms of "solid top 4 defensive defencemen," I question who you're thinking of past Aulie and Pelech. As for the odd puck mover, I think having Brodie and Deilert and Negrin is really substantial in terms of assets in this area. I don't think that any fan can expect their team to ever have all three of these categories ever filled past 3/4 guys unless they are a perennial loser that has stockpiled draft picks in exchange for big league assets, so I look at the Flames defensive depth and say that its diverse, its quick and therefore its in good shape moving forward.

When you say that Negrin is "close" to a blend type, I'm slightly curious what your requirements would be to classify someone as such. I think that Negrin's 8G 41A 49P in 61 games, while being a plus 7, is a pretty solid indication of his offensive upside, and yet this is the one aspect of his game that you have doubts about at the next level. Negrin has great speed, a great first pass, and reads the play really well. Quickness and hockey sense (and arguably size, which Negrin has at 6'2 190) are the biggest attributes when making a transition to the pro game, and I think Playfair will be able to do wonders for improving Negrin's overall game, which may not be NHL calibre but is certainly above average for his age range and draft position.

[Tilley]

Originally Posted by prizefighterinferno

I think that Negrin's 8G 41A 49P in 61 games, while being a plus 7, is a pretty solid indication of his offensive upside, and yet this is the one aspect of his game that you have doubts about at the next level. Negrin has great speed, a great first pass, and reads the play really well.

I agree with this. Negrin isn't an offensive defenseman like Green or Souray, but rather a Leopold clone who can initiate offense from the blueline. Like Leopold, Negrin's strengths are his skating and hockey sense and I look forward to seeing Negrin transition to the pro game (likely AHL) next season.

I'm not concerned about the defensive prospects at all. With Regehr, Sarich, Giordano, Pardy, Leopold, Vandermeer and Phaneuf all 30 or younger they will be the defensive foundation for the next 3-5 years. The defensive prospects will get ample time to develop in the AHL and room will need to be made for them when they are ready. Future prospects can be brought along slowly because of the defensive depth.

[cross16]

Originally Posted by prizefighterinferno

In terms of "solid top 4 defensive defencemen," I question who you're thinking of past Aulie and Pelech. As for the odd puck mover, I think having Brodie and Deilert and Negrin is really substantial in terms of assets in this area. I don't think that any fan can expect their team to ever have all three of these categories ever filled past 3/4 guys unless they are a perennial loser that has stockpiled draft picks in exchange for big league assets, so I look at the Flames defensive depth and say that its diverse, its quick and therefore its in good shape moving forward.

When you say that Negrin is "close" to a blend type, I'm slightly curious what your requirements would be to classify someone as such. I think that Negrin's 8G 41A 49P in 61 games, while being a plus 7, is a pretty solid indication of his offensive upside, and yet this is the one aspect of his game that you have doubts about at the next level. Negrin has great speed, a great first pass, and reads the play really well. Quickness and hockey sense (and arguably size, which Negrin has at 6'2 190) are the biggest attributes when making a transition to the pro game, and I think Playfair will be able to do wonders for improving Negrin's overall game, which may not be NHL calibre but is certainly above average for his age range and draft position.

First don't get the idea i'm trying to down talk Negrin. I am a huge John Negrin fan and think the Flames stole him in the 3rd round and I love his upside.
What I meant by questioning his offensive upside, is clearly i don't every expect him to hit Junior type numbers. If you want a comparison, negrin to me reminds me more and more of Scott Hannan. I lived in Kelowna when Hannan played there and to me they are almost identical at the same age. So a guy that can make a solid first past, but at the same time doens't produce much in the way of goals from the backend, nor nothing more than avg pukc moving in the offensive zone, ala Scott Hannan.
Nothin wrong with that at all. But i'm thinking more of a less Phaneuf/ Aucoin type player. A guy who is solid defensivly, but can at the same time can pot some goals, can move the puck, but also rush the play. Thats what I was refferring to with "blend". A Phaneuf style player but clearly not at that calibre.
Guys like Brent Burns, Shea Weber, Mike Green, Mezaros are all guys that would fit that mold that were drafted at the back half of the first round or second round.

Like I mentioned, its not a prioirty, its more a want pick. I'd take a skilled forward first if he was there, but if a guy Like Kulikov fell to the Flames he'd be hard to pass up.