The price of oil

[Cowperson]

Good overview - in simple English - of the current price of oil, causes, trends, impact and how the recent runup compares historically to other events like this.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5773192/

Interestingly, $47 oil might not be enough to pump up the economics of "alternative energy" says this New York Times article. You may have to register to view it.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/22/business...ney/22alte.html

Cowperson

[Jaybo]

This might be a good place to ask this question...

Does anyone (especially anyone who works in the oil industry) have a prediction on when oil will run out?

I've seen guesses of anywhere from 50 years to "it won't run out because it doesn't actually come from fossil fuels but from an internal earth process that is ongoing."

Although I personally believe that we consume WAY too much energy and that our resources are limited therefore making unlimited growth impossible (hello China!), I am honestly curious as to how big a threat running out of oil might be? Is this like Y2K all over again - a potential threat but in the end, greatly overrated? Or is it real and something we need to act on now and in a serious manner?

I assume that as always, the answer is probably somewhere in the middle.

[flamesfever]

If you want to get really nervous, look up "peak oil" on the net.

[Jaybo]

Oh, I have! My question though is - how real is the threat of the end of oil and how much is Chicken Little stuff?

Personally, I think that if the oil doesn't run out in my lifetime, it will in my childrens' (as yet unborn) if we continue believing that our planet can handle unlimited growth. I'm only basing this on reading a variety of web sites, books & magazine articles. I don't work in the industry hence my request for other opinions.

One effect of this uncertainty - my wife and I are thinking about the possibility of building/buying an off-the-grid home. Still need to do a lot more research into the pluses and negatives though.

[Cowperson]

The new factor in all of this is the scary prospect of just under 3 billion people - India and China - representing about half the population of the planet at the moment - finally starting to join the Industrial Age in a meaningful way.

And sucking up all the oil in the world as they prosper.

Break out your: "I LUV NUCLEAR POWER" buttons!!

Cowperson

[flamesfever]

Jaybo, I agree with your comment "the answer is probably somewhere in the middle". I have a son in the oil business and he's not worried about world oil running out, and I'm not worried either.

[Clarkey]

Oil is not like pop in a glass that is being sucked out by a straw. As oil becomes less prevalent and more difficult to recover the price will go up. With this price increase the demand for oil will go down and alternate energy sources will be sought out. It's not like one day we will wake up to no more oil.

It's just a matter of finding an energy source that can replace the massive volume that oil currently takes up. And no it's not a case of oil companies hiding alternate sources to protect their oil, if they had such means they would be the ones with the capital to explore them.

I still need to read the articles posted on here.

[Flame Of Liberty]

Originally posted by Clarkey@Aug 23 2004, 07:01 AM
Oil is not like pop in a glass that is being sucked out by a straw. As oil becomes less prevalent and more difficult to recover the price will go up. With this price increase the demand for oil will go down and alternate energy sources will be sought out. It's not like one day we will wake up to no more oil.

Where`s a thumbs up icon?

Good post, I agree.

[TheCommodoreAfro]

Originally posted by flamesfever@Aug 23 2004, 06:30 AM
If you want to get really nervous, look up "peak oil" on the net.

There is the radical geologist fringe that we've heard so much about.

Four more years and no oil?

[flamesfever]

IMHO, it would probably be helpful to be aware of, and study, the numerous articles on "peak oil". I know it's a scary subject, and one should avoid overeacting to some of the more pessimistic ideas. However, IMO many of the articles are written by well meaning and reputable individuals who are attempting to come to terms with the projected peak in world oil production.

Luckily, Alberta is probably one of the best places on earth to be, if or when a shortage of oil develops and becomes critical, because of our huge reserves of oil in the tar sands. We also have very large reserves of near-surface coal which could provide us with needed energy for hundreds of years.

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Personally I had to laugh when I read the peak oil thing. Serioulsy, how big of an insight is it to say that as we produce a finite resource we will at some point have a maximum output level, Wow, that's good sience.

Yes, we will eventually run out of oil but it won't be happening any time soon. As prices go up and technology gets better and cheaper companies are finding was to find and produce oil/gas that they never thought they could ever produce or even find. Sure, at today's levels we may only have 50 years of oil left (not what I think, just a random number), but in 50 years we are going to be finding/developing a lot of resources we can't today.

[habernac]

I believe about 10 years ago there was said to the fact that there were about 700 years worth of reserves in the Athabasca oil sands if humanity continued consumption at its 1994 levels. Don't know where I can find any "facts" to back that up however.

[calf]

Originally posted by habernac@Aug 23 2004, 02:37 PM
I believe about 10 years ago there was said to the fact that there were about 700 years worth of reserves in the Athabasca oil sands if humanity continued consumption at its 1994 levels. Don't know where I can find any "facts" to back that up however.

That seems a little high, no? I have no reason not to believe you, but wow, that's a lot of oil.

I heard one tidbit from a friend that worked in the oil industry that even if we did run out of oil/natural gas/coal, our economy would still survive for some time due to the clean-up industry. This has very little merit, but is still interesting (to me).

[Mr. Ski]

Estimates I read from a 2004 National Energy Board paper on the Oil Sands estimated the total economicly recoverable deposits (which they listed as only only 11% of the total) at 28 billion cubic metres or approx 175 billion barrels of oil (one cubic metre = 6.3 barrels). They were using an average price of $24.00/Barel WTE for their economic calculations.

So... not sure about the 700 year figure, but certainly a lot of oil sitting there! And with any price over their figure of $24/barrel, more of the total deposit becomes economicly recoverable. With their figure of 175 billion barrels alone, there's approx $8,575,000,000,000.00 worth of oil at today's prices. Wow!

[flamesfever]

BBS, I sincerely hope you are right and our ability to adapt, and ingenuity, can solve the problems associated with the eventual end in oil production.

In the meantime, "peak oil" in my mind means everything related to the projected peak in oil production, including price increase related to demand outstripping ultimate supply, along with all the economic and political things in our life that may be affected, including cost of fuel, stock market, inflation, price of real estate, food production, resource development, manufacturing, fiscal, monetary and military policy, etc.

Granted, as the price of oil moves up, there will be factors that come into play that tend to increase the supply and reduce the demand for oil. For example, things that increase the oil supply include:
1. increasing the effort and expenditure to find and develop more conventional
oil reserves.
2. increasing the effort and expenditure to find and develop more non-conventional oil reserves e.g. tar sands
3. rendering economic, sources of oil which are presently uneconomic e.g. stripper oil and oil shales.
Things that reduce the demand for oil include:
1. switching to alternate sources of energy e.g. natural gas, nuclear, coal, wind, solar, etc.
2. developing new technology e.g. hydrogen-powered cars.
3. some presently undiscovered breakthrough e.g. nuclear fission

However, taking into consideration all of the above, IMO the peak in oil production will still have a fairly profound effect on our way of life, if it hasn't already.

[theikon]

I'm a Petroleum Geologist - and there is no way we are running out of oil any time soon. The Ocean Basins are filled with hydrocarbon resevoirs. Its just not economically viable to get all of it out right now - i.e. build submerged pipelines to land etc. However as demand increases, and people are willing to pay more for oil ($70/barrel) - all of a sudden it becomes economically viable to build those pipelines. Better technology will also make it cheaper to drill these locations and extract the oil. Everything comes with a price I guess.

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Originally posted by flamesfever@Aug 23 2004, 06:08 PM
BBS, I sincerely hope you are right and our ability to adapt, and ingenuity, can solve the problems associated with the eventual end in oil production.

In the meantime, "peak oil" in my mind means everything related to the projected peak in oil production, including price increase related to demand outstripping ultimate supply, along with all the economic and political things in our life that may be affected, including cost of fuel, stock market, inflation, price of real estate, food production, resource development, manufacturing, fiscal, monetary and military policy, etc.

Granted, as the price of oil moves up, there will be factors that come into play that tend to increase the supply and reduce the demand for oil. For example, things that increase the oil supply include:
1. increasing the effort and expenditure to find and develop more conventional
oil reserves.
2. increasing the effort and expenditure to find and develop more non-conventional oil reserves e.g. tar sands
3. rendering economic, sources of oil which are presently uneconomic e.g. stripper oil and oil shales.
Things that reduce the demand for oil include:
1. switching to alternate sources of energy e.g. natural gas, nuclear, coal, wind, solar, etc.
2. developing new technology e.g. hydrogen-powered cars.
3. some presently undiscovered breakthrough e.g. nuclear fission

However, taking into consideration all of the above, IMO the peak in oil production will still have a fairly profound effect on our way of life, if it hasn't already.

Oh god, Don't get me started on Hydrogen cars. They are not a good idea. Hydrogen has to come from 1 of two places.

1)hydrocarbons (ie oil) you loose energy in the process hence more oil must be used hence more polluion

2) using electricity to convet water. Untill the majority of the power plants are using sources such as nuclear or wind ie not hydrocarbons, we will be using more hydrocarbons to make the hydrogen than it would take to just drive the car.

Hydrogen cars = bad idea for now.

[theikon]

Since we're talking about energy...I think I saw a sign at Deerfoot Mall that said the mall is 25% wind powered. I thought that was pretty cool.

[calf]

Originally posted by theikon@Aug 24 2004, 09:42 PM
Since we're talking about energy...I think I saw a sign at Deerfoot Mall that said the mall is 25% wind powered. I thought that was pretty cool.

The C-Train's also 100% wind-powered

[Displaced Flames fan]

Originally posted by theikon@Aug 24 2004, 03:07 PM
I'm a Petroleum Geologist - and there is no way we are running out of oil any time soon. The Ocean Basins are filled with hydrocarbon resevoirs. Its just not economically viable to get all of it out right now - i.e. build submerged pipelines to land etc. However as demand increases, and people are willing to pay more for oil ($70/barrel) - all of a sudden it becomes economically viable to build those pipelines. Better technology will also make it cheaper to drill these locations and extract the oil. Everything comes with a price I guess.

That goes for the vast shale deposits in Colorado, Wyoming and Utah as well. The technology is there to extract the oil, but not at the prices Oil was at when the processes were first successful (below $20/bbl).

The number I was given over 10 years ago is $50/bbl, but that has gone up and the company that was leading the way has since sold all of it's land holdings in the area.

Someone else will be doing it someday.

The last estimate I heard was around 8 trillion bbls in those shale deposits.