Coalition Deal To Topple Minority Tory Govt- [Update Parliament Prorogued until Jan]

[CaptainCrunch]

Intesting bloc numbers, I would have expected them to be bigger

[LChoy]

Not sure about Quebec regional politics, but isn't 37.4% for the Bloc in Quebec quite low?

EDIT: What CC said

[Bobblehead]

I'm curious how this is going to affect the Quebec provincial election on Monday.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Bobblehead

I can find changes in the form of the Belfour Declaration of 1926 (which made the Governor General at representative of the Crown only, as opposed to the Crown and British Parliament) and 1931 Statute of Wellington which stated that no longer would British law automatically extend to the Commonwealth. But I can't see where any of the Governor Generals powers were curtailed.

Do you have the references handy, I'm curious about it now.

The Balfour Declaration was also related:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balfour_Declaration_1926

Edit: Hey, look at that! I completely forgot that you mentioned the Balfour declaration in your post between the time I read it, adn the time I posted this.

[redforever]

The Ontario numbers are the ones I find interesting. Almost 2 to 1 for CPC over Liberals.

If an election is held early next year, I think it will depend on what if any package is out there for the auto makers and that will depend on US actions on the matter.

[Bobblehead]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The Balfour Declaration was also related:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balfour_Declaration_1926

Yeah, I listed that.

But it appears non of the Governor General's powers have been curtailed. Reading further dow that G&M article I posted earlier (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servl.../politics/home)

The key point is that whatever Ms. Jean did yesterday won't tie the hands of future governors-general or unleash future prime ministers to run over Parliament with their boots.

The reserve powers - the powers that may be exercised by the governor-general without the approval of another branch of government - are undefined and will never be defined, Prof. Smith said.

Because personalities, time and chance matter enormously in politics, Queen's university political scientist C. E. S. Franks said, the reserve powers of the governor-general to respond to constitutional fires have to be unfettered to deal with the unexpected and unprecedented.

"There's no rule that you can't act here or you can't act there," he said.

Similarly, the reserve powers don't fall under the umbrella of what is known as convention, the non-legal rules of the Constitution.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Lchoy

Not sure about Quebec regional politics, but isn't 37.4% for the Bloc in Quebec quite low?

EDIT: What CC said

During the last campaign, they were polling anywhere from low 30s in early September to low 40s just before the election. They ended up getting 38% in the election, so this is pretty much right on par. Other interesting things:
Not really much change in BC.
NDP take a huge hit in Sask and Manitoba.
Big gains for the Conservatives in Ontario,
Slight drop for the Conservatives (statistically insignificant) in Quebec, while the Liberals are up slightly there.
In Atlantic Canada, NDP support is way down, but both Conservatives and Liberals make gains.
Greens up everywhere except for Alberta and Atlantic Canada, but they always poll better than their actual voting returns.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by redforever

The Ontario numbers are the ones I find interesting. Almost 2 to 1 for CPC over Liberals.

If an election is held early next year, I think it will depend on what if any package is out there for the auto makers and that will depend on US actions on the matter.

Interesting to compare them to the vote totals in the election.

Cons are:

+3 in BC
+10.5 in Alberta
about +4.5 in Saskatchewan/Manitoba
+10 in Ontario
-1.5 in Quebec
and probably about even to slightly up in the Atlantic.

The fact that the Conservatives are polling 10% higher in Ontario than the last vote is a cause for concern for the Liberals, imo.

NDP support is also lower in all regions, including down 4 points in Ontario, and 6-7 points down in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Liberals are about even in the west (mainly because they cant go much lower), down six points in Ontario, and about even in the Atlantic.

Obviously this is not an election campaign, where the boogeyman syndrome would likely equalize the numbers a bit, but it is very clear that the Conservatives are just raping the NDP and Liberals in Ontario.

One can only imagine what strategists in those parties are thinking right now.

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by Bobblehead

The Queen IS above the the people's elected representative.

And if she wants to stay that way... she has to pretend she is not.

Once the average Canadian realizes that her dominance, the monarchy is punted faster than you can say "republic." Even this situation might have highlighted her powers more than she would have liked.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by Dion

http://www.ekos.com/admin/articles/CBC4Dec2008.pdf

The best part about those numbers, is that poll was already completed before the televised speeches aired on the night of the 3rd.

I bet it would be even more of a lopsided if repeated over yesterday and today.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

One can only imagine what strategists in those parties are thinking right now.

Yeah, the NDP in particular, who are seeing three of their four power-bases (Atlantic Canada, Ontario, Manitoba/Sask) evaporate.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Cons are:

+3 in BC
+10.5 in Alberta
about +4.5 in Saskatchewan/Manitoba

NDP support is also lower in all regions... and 6-7 points down in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Liberals are about even in the west...

What this tells me is that the people who "threw their votes away" on the NDP in the last election, because they didn't want to vote for either PC or Lib, would vote PC this time around.

[Bobblehead]

Originally Posted by Thunderball

And if she wants to stay that way... she has to pretend she is not.

Once the average Canadian realizes that her dominance, the monarchy is punted faster than you can say "republic." Even this situation might have highlighted her powers more than she would have liked.

Absolutely. The way this seemed to be handled, and the way it was expected to be handled, was to have the least impact possible.

I think it was well done.

But (theoretically) she could have done anything, and been within the Governor General's right to do so. And as you mention, that would be the last time that would happen.

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Yeah, the NDP in particular, who are seeing three of their four power-bases (Atlantic Canada, Ontario, Manitoba/Sask) evaporate.

could be 4 out of 4.

Poll numbers can be very misleading. 47% CPC could mean domination in the whole of the province if spread equally (which it likely isn't). It still means the NDP could take a beating in Vancouver.

I think they knew this was their high watermark, and this was their chance to form government. However, if they were deluded into thinking the majority was behind them... they're probably panicking.

Even if they vote the CPC down in January, its pretty clear that means an election, not an appointment.

[Bobblehead]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Yeah, the NDP in particular, who are seeing three of their four power-bases (Atlantic Canada, Ontario, Manitoba/Sask) evaporate.

I'd be willing to bet they (justifiably) blame Dion. Jeffrey Simpson, who seems to have a fairly Liberal bent, said "there are no adults in the Liberal party right now" (paraphrased). He was speaking politically, but it was a pretty damning condemnation of the party as a whole.

[FlamesAddiction]

I see it more as suspending parliament so that the current government can get things sorted out and prepare a plan to gain concensus among the opposition. It's not as negative as some people make it out to be (ie. he asked for prerogue just to save his job).

It's a good strategy to take, although I do think that it would be better if government was working during this period.

I still support the idea of a coalition, but we should probably exhaust other avenues first.

[ikaris]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Obviously this is not an election campaign, where the boogeyman syndrome would likely equalize the numbers a bit, but it is very clear that the Conservatives are just raping the NDP and Liberals in Ontario.

One can only imagine what strategists in those parties are thinking right now.

Just give it some time. As this crisis will likely blow over with the status-quo remaining, the Liberals will regroup with a new leader and will campaign that they were the reason that Ontario got the stimulus that they needed. It will be a pretty convincing argument as well considering what has transpired.

The Liberals would not allow an election to happen right now as they don't have the money, leadership, or national support to wage a battle. But the Conservatives have awoken a sleeping giant and it will be interesting to see how this all plays out over the next year and a half.

[calculoso]

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=4201

If an election were held tomorrow, the Conservative Party would garner 46% of the decided vote -- up 10 points since the last election -- compared with the Liberals who would receive 23% of the vote, followed by the NDP (13%), 9% for the Bloc Quebecquois (37% in Québec) and 8% for the Green party.

* In British Columbia the Tories lead (49%), followed by the Liberals (26%), the NDP (14%) and the Green Party (9%).
* In Alberta, the Conservatives (72%) have a commanding lead, while the Liberals (13%), NDP (8%) and Green Party (8%) are trail.
* In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Tories (54%) also have a commanding lead over the NDP (19%), Liberals (15%) and Greens (10%).
* In Ontario, the Conservatives (50%) have opened a very large margin over the Liberals (26%), the NDP (12%) and the Green (10%).
* In Quebec, the Bloc (37%) maintains a comfortable lead over the Conservatives (24%), Liberals (21%), the NDP (12%) and the Greens (6%).
* In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives (48%) are at the head of the pack, followed by the Liberals (25%), the NDP (18%) and the Green Party (6%).

[old-fart]

Originally Posted by ikaris

Just give it some time. As this crisis will likely blow over with the status-quo remaining, the Liberals will regroup with a new leader and will campaign that they were the reason that Ontario got the stimulus that they needed. It will be a pretty convincing argument as well considering what has transpired.

The Liberals would not allow an election to happen right now as they don't have the money, leadership, or national support to wage a battle. But the Conservatives have awoken a sleeping giant and it will be interesting to see how this all plays out over the next year and a half.

The Liberals won't have a new leader until May. Between now and then they'll either have to live with the conservative's agenda, or vote it down. This phoney coalition is going to implode, so their only choice will be to abstain, again, or go back to the people with Dion leading them.

And you can bet that whenever there is another election, the conservatives will make hay with the separatist coalition, and that image of Dion, Jacko and Gilles will be prominent in all advertising.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

It's a good strategy to take, although I do think that it would be better if government was working during this period.

Government is continuing to work. It's just Parliament that is not sitting.

And the truth is, Parliament was expected to sit only this week, then adjourn for Christmas. The next sitting of Parliament was scheduled, iirc, for a week before the Prorouge is set to expire.

The ultimate effect on Parliament is that MPs wont be in the House for a grand total of two weeks longer than was already planned.