Coalition Deal To Topple Minority Tory Govt- [Update Parliament Prorogued until Jan]

[ikaris]

A lot of good posts in the last few pages of this thread. My thanks seem to have run out

It really does appear that the Liberal leadership hopefuls are allowing this to happen because they have Dion to be the fall guy if anything fails. If it works out, they can reap the benefits, if the Conservatives produce effectively the same budget that the coalition has offered in principle, they can allow the coalition to fail and still blame all the problems on Dion and Harper.

I posed this question earlier, but no one seemed to bite. How will people react when the Conservatives essentially try to buy Quebec off with money in their upcoming budget? Will it be OK because it's now the blue party giving our money up?

From the beginning I supported the initial Conservative budget and I thought that any sort of bailout is premature. SebC has astutely put it best, that Alberta really doesn't have influence in any party.

[The Goon]

Not sure if this has been posted already, but a really good opinion is given by Rick Mercer:

http://www.rickmercer.com/blog/index.cfm/2008/12/3

Both Harper and Dion are taken to task, and I like his solution to our current mess:

We need one more historic press conference attended by two political enemies. A joint press conference between Stephen Harper and Stephane Dion.
A historic event where they both apologise to their country and their parties, in that order, and then they resign immediately – no questions please.

[old-fart]

Interesting that even Warren Kinsella, Liberal apologist and former JC advisor, thinks the Dion address last night was an embarrassment.

Harper is meeting with the GG right now. I can't imagine that she won't grant the prorouge until late January. Between now and then Harper and team will put together a solid budget, and the coalition will collapse. There will be some stability, and if the coalition attempts to defeat the government in January, we'll likely go back to the polls as opposed to letting this farce govern. By then it will have been almost 4 months, and another election - while expensive and unnecessary - is the lesser of the two evils.

I find Layton completely hypocritical in his comments claiming Harper lost the confidence of the house over the economy. If that is so, why was he having meetings TWO DAYS after the last election to setup this coalition? The Tories hadn't had a chance to do anything by that point, but already the talks were starting. The NDP and Libs never had any intention of abiding by the will of the people, and are only interested in a power grab in any way possible. Harper made a tactical error in not realizing how dangerous and partisan they could be, but I'd bet he won't make that mistake again.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by The Goon

Not sure if this has been posted already, but a really good opinion is given by Rick Mercer:

http://www.rickmercer.com/blog/index.cfm/2008/12/3

Both Harper and Dion are taken to task, and I like his solution to our current mess:

We need one more historic press conference attended by two political enemies. A joint press conference between Stephen Harper and Stephane Dion.
A historic event where they both apologise to their country and their parties, in that order, and then they resign immediately – no questions please.

Yar, that was posted a couple pages back. No worries this is a pretty huge thread.

[atb]

Any recent polls showing what Canadians think about this mess?

[ikaris]

Originally Posted by old-fart

I find Layton completely hypocritical in his comments claiming Harper lost the confidence of the house over the economy. If that is so, why was he having meetings TWO DAYS after the last election to setup this coalition? The Tories hadn't had a chance to do anything by that point, but already the talks were starting. The NDP and Libs never had any intention of abiding by the will of the people, and are only interested in a power grab in any way possible. Harper made a tactical error in not realizing how dangerous and partisan they could be, but I'd bet he won't make that mistake again.

This is exactly the point, and why the coalition isn't necessary. The Conservatives in a minority mandatory are pretty palatable because they can't introduce any social right wing measures and have prudent fiscal policy (well, I'm hoping, at least).

[CaptainCrunch]

I honestly think that Harper should let this go to the vote on Monday and disolve parliment. There's no way that the GG is going to grant the coaltion government status when their leader has said that he's going to step down in a few months.

One of the key points in her decision has to be the stability of the countries leadership. And a party thats going through a leadership process while leading does not have stable leadership.

[Fozzie_DeBear]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Things that can happen

1) Prorougue - Parliment shuts down, however the GG lays conditions on the length, making Parliment come back early in Janurary instead of late in Janurary (most likely)
2) GG does nothing lets the confidence vote happen. (possible)
a) 10 Liberal/NDP/Bloc MP's stage a mini rebellion and just don't show up for the vote (slim chance)
b) Harper convinces 9 or more of the coalition members to cross the floor and gets his majority (no chance)
c) The coalition votes down the government Parliment falls.
1) GG grants the coalition government, we get no budget until late spring (unlikely at this point unless the Coalition can do one hell of a sell job)
2) GG dissolves Parliment and sends us to the polls government spending stops til after the election (most likely and least contraversial)
3) Harper approaches the Coalition hat in hand and negotiates an end to the crisis (unlikely)
4) Harper declares Marshall Law, lines up the members of the opposition and shoots them, declares himself Harper the 1st and begins building work camps to stimulate the economy. All industry gears for war.

Think thats it

Anyone for a poll?

[Rerun]

Originally Posted by Flame On

Good post.
And I think once the Libs have a new leader they'll do pretty well out of it in the end too. They'll paint the coalition scheme as all Dion and Layton (who cares about the seperatists), the crisis origin as Harper's doing and voila. This isn't wishful thinking on my part per se, I just can see it spun like that. Actually thats not spin.

I think you are being overly optimistic about what effect this will have on the Liberals in the next election.

Your next potential leader, Bob Rae, is involved up to his neck in this. As for your other potential leader, Iggy.... he apparently is beginning to see this deal as a poisoned chalice (as some on the national news put it), and he is backing off in his support (when was the last time you saw Iggy being interviewed on tv and showing his support?). The Liberals will wear this rag for a long time. Come the next election, all you will hear from the the Conservatives is how the Liberals made a backroom secret deal with the socialist NDP and the separtist Bloc to take over the goverment of Canada and this shows you can't trust them.

This deal will be very bad for the Liberals in the long run. They've really shot themselves in the foot.

[CaptainCrunch]

Thats a pretty large poll and it would be multileveled.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Things that can happen

1) Prorougue - Parliment shuts down, however the GG lays conditions on the length, making Parliment come back early in Janurary instead of late in Janurary (most likely)
2) GG does nothing lets the confidence vote happen. (possible)
a) 10 Liberal/NDP/Bloc MP's stage a mini rebellion and just don't show up for the vote (slim chance)
b) Harper convinces 9 or more of the coalition members to cross the floor and gets his majority (no chance)
c) The coalition votes down the government Parliment falls.
1) GG grants the coalition government, we get no budget until late spring (unlikely at this point unless the Coalition can do one hell of a sell job)
2) GG dissolves Parliment and sends us to the polls government spending stops til after the election (most likely and least contraversial)
3) Harper approaches the Coalition hat in hand and negotiates an end to the crisis (unlikely)
4) Harper declares Marshall Law, lines up the members of the opposition and shoots them, declares himself Harper the 1st and begins building work camps to stimulate the economy. All industry gears for war.

Think thats it

You forgot one. Harper resigning. Harper has been known to just walk away when things don't go his way. Like leaving the reform party.

[Gozer]

Latest online poll:

Conservative minority rule: 8%
Coalition rule: 4%
Election: 2%
OMG WTF R U SERIOUS!?: 86%

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Rerun

I think you are being overly optimistic about what effect this will have on the Liberals in the next election.

Your next potential leader, Bob Rae is involved up to his neck in this. As for you other potential leader, Iggy.... he apparently is beginning to see this deal as a poisoned chalice (as some on the national news put it), and he is backing off in his support (when was the last time you saw Iggy being interviewed on tv and showing his support?). The Liberals will wear this rag for a long time. Come the next election, all you will hear from the the Conservatives is how the Liberals made a backroom secret deal with the socialist NDP and the separtist Bloc to take over the goverment of Canada and this shows you can't trust them.

This deal will be very bad for the Liberals in the long run. They've really shot themselves in the foot.

I actually really agree with this. Harper may have shot himself in the foot and caused this through election funding reform and right to strike mandates. However he gave himself a lot of ammunition for the next election, especially with the tape of the meeting with Layton, the withdraw of the contraversial parts of the update, and the unwillingness of the three opposition parties to work with him on the budget. Combine that with the Liberal's bumbling and fumbling and their economic status and the Liberal's should want no part of an election for a long time.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

You forgot one. Harper resigning. Harper has been known to just walk away when things don't go his way. Like leaving the reform party.

I really don't see that happening at all unless the conservatives get booted and lose an election.

The CPC is not going to throw their party into chaos while they still have a shot at power.

Plus out of the 4 leaders, Harper seems to be the only one that can walk and chew gum at the same time.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

You forgot one. Harper resigning. Harper has been known to just walk away when things don't go his way. Like leaving the reform party.

I know I'm in the minority here, but I don't want Harper to resign. Like him or not, the guy is a Leader. Maybe not the best one we've seen, but certainly the best one we have available to us right now.

Yeah, I know. He has an awkward smile and an affinity for sweaters. Everybody has something that people don't like about them.

[kevman]

Originally Posted by ikaris

This is exactly the point, and why the coalition isn't necessary. The Conservatives in a minority mandatory are pretty palatable because they can't introduce any social right wing measures and have prudent fiscal policy (well, I'm hoping, at least).

The problem is, with all of the pressure from the coalition for stimulus package, i see no way the conservatives are going to stick to their "prudent fiscal policy." Did anyone see the Globe and Mail article this morning about Ottawa losing $6billion in revenue this year as a result of the slumping Oil inudstry? (sorry, no link...who reads the physical paper anymore anyways???)

$6billion is no small potatoes...can you say DEFICIT??? It doesn't matter who's in charge, things are going to get ugly!

[ikaris]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

I know I'm in the minority here, but I don't want Harper to resign. Like him or not, the guy is a Leader. Maybe not the best one we've seen, but certainly the best one we have available to us right now.

Yeah, I know. He has an awkward smile and an affinity for sweaters. Everybody has something that people don't like about them.

If he actually truly believed what he said, then he would resign as that would immediately defuse the crisis. He is no different from any other politician and demands to be in power.

McKay wouldn't be that bad in those shoes I think.

[Gozer]

I'm with you 80. Harper is "winning" this childish game, a new and more pleasant leader isn't going to be treated with any kind of respect by the Axis of Snivel anyway.

[Bobblehead]

Originally Posted by Rerun

This deal will be very bad for the Liberals in the long run. They've really shot themselves in the foot.

For sure.

From the Liberal side, supposedly it was worked on by Cretien - what does he care, he isn't running anymore.

As for Dion, what does he care, he has already announced his retirement. He just would like to take Harper down with him.

Bob Rae - I think he is a clever guy, but realizes he will never be elected PM since no one from Ont. will trust him ever again. He feels this coalition is his one an only chance to be PM.

Layton (or any NDP) - this is their only true shot to get a cabinet post - ever.

Duceppe - this has worked perfectly for the BQ. They don't care who runs the country, as long as they can weasel out a bigger share. They weaseled money from Harper last session for their support, and they can get the same or better from the coalition. But even better, Stephan Harper's scorched earth campaign has re-ignited the separatist sentiments (the week before a Quebec provincial election - good work Steve); so for the BQ - they are the only "winners" (from their point of view) in this whole debacle.

[ikaris]

Originally Posted by kevman

The problem is, with all of the pressure from the coalition for stimulus package, i see no way the conservatives are going to stick to their "prudent fiscal policy." Did anyone see the Globe and Mail article this morning about Ottawa losing $6billion in revenue this year as a result of the slumping Oil inudstry? (sorry, no link...who read the physical paper anymore???)

Anyways, $6billion is no small potatoes...can you say DEFICIT??? It doesn't matter who's in charge, things are going to get ugly!

Exactly, and when they coalesce and submit to the separatists and give Quebec all the money they were going to get through this coalition, I doubt there will be any criticism here