Coalition Deal To Topple Minority Tory Govt- [Update Parliament Prorogued until Jan]

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Thunderball

Interestingly, in the markets:
Dow UP 270 points
TSX DOWN 67 points
CDN Dollar DOWN to .7999

Can't say the coalition has no effect now.

Why not? Scotiabank and Manulife announced that they will lose money this quarter. They have fairly significant portions of the index, and naturally that news doesn't serve to increase things! Oil is also down by $2.30.

Surely even the conspiracies that the coalition have cooked up aren't enough to dictate falling oil prices?

[Incinerator]

Originally Posted by Thunderball

The world is taking note, and are not impressed that the most secure economy in G8 currently has the most unstable government. That's all.

and this is the bottom line...the world will soon see what a banana republic we are and drive the loonie into pesos territory should this mess materializes in the near future. I hope everyone's got their lifeboats ready...oh wait, Alberta is landlocked!

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by ikaris

Well I wish I was from Quebec if this is the way things are going play out Born and raised and living in Calgary though. Maybe I'm just not so cynical. I'm still of the belief though that this coalition won't happen because the Conservatives will cave.

Is there any reason why we have to repeat the same things over and over?

The Conservatives already backed off on the threat to force all parties' hands out of our wallets. That alone should have removed the Liberal impetus for this coup.

That the NDP and Bloc were plotting it from the moment the election was over argues strongly that the Conservatives caving is not what this coalition wants or is asking for. And caving over what? Do you even have an answer to that or did it just sound convincing when you typed it?

[mykalberta]

Just thought I would add this from CTV

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNew...1?hub=Politics

Its how the Tories were able to get a recording of the NDP conference call.

Wow, this is one of the parties that might very well lead this counrty. I can see it know, the email was meant for Obama, not Osama - oops our mistake

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Yeah, there's that possibility. However, Harper's strength is generally in making bold moves that builds or consolidates his power despite pissing some people off. I'm not convinced he has the nuanced understanding of public opinion necessary to find and appoint someone of universal popularity. He'll start out with good intentions and next thing you know, Celine Dion is commuting between Vegas and Rideau Hall.

I totally expect another joke GG to be honest. Like Don Cherry or William Shatner or something. I don't see someone like Arthur Kent or Gen. Hillier or anyone like that. 99% of the time, its a joke position. In that 1% of the time, you want someone who will do the best thing with no partisan ties or shady pasts.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by Flame On

I'm just saying that in this thread/board if you don't think there isn't a ton of partisan loyalty to throw around from all camps you're kind of kidding yourself. I guess you did address that of yourself though. So....issue over?

I agree! (on all counts)

[Bertuzzied]

Originally Posted by kevman

I also said "oilsands stock went down" and then brought up the argument regarding oil sands stocks and their significantly large foreign investment. People invest in companies they feel safe putting their money into. Today it wasn't simply the price of oil making oil sands stocks risky...

While we're at it; Talisman is up. We can play the up/down stock game all day long.

Well here you go. Headline on Yahoo Finance Canada.

Bank stocks take TSX to negative close; NY surges following big losses

Not. Coalition brings the stock market to a grinding halt with a .0094 drop.

http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/0...following.html

The Toronto stock market closed lower Tuesday as rising energy and gold stocks failed to compensate for a slide in bank stocks a day after one of the worst declines on record. New York indexes were positive, starting to revive from the big losses Monday triggered by growing worries about the American economy.


The Canadian dollar was off 0.37 cent to 79.84 cents U.S., as the Liberals and NDP say they're ready to govern in a coalition with Bloc Quebecois support and the minority Conservatives look for a way to retain power.
However, analysts note that the political uncertainty is likely not to blame for the weak performance on the TSX.
"I don't think people are selling Manulife because of what's going on in Ottawa and they're not buying EnCana because of what's going on in Ottawa," said Nakamoto.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Slava

Why not? Scotiabank and Manulife announced that they will lose money this quarter. They have fairly significant portions of the index, and naturally that news doesn't serve to increase things! Oil is also down by $2.30.

Surely even the conspiracies that the coalition have cooked up aren't enough to dictate falling oil prices?

The markets were crazy before this, and they'll be crazy after. That's one of the reasons that this whole thing is such bad timing for the Liberals. They should let the Conservatives reign over this and get the bad press from it. Not that the Conservatives will deserve blame either, but we all know how people love to blame the government for all their problems.

If this coalition takes over and reigns through the bad times and then Harper wins the election as things start to turn around, it's going to look bad on the Liberals even if it is just circumstantial.

[ikaris]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

That the NDP and Bloc were plotting it from the moment the election was over argues strongly that the Conservatives caving is not what this coalition wants or is asking for. And caving over what? Do you even have an answer to that or did it just sound convincing when you typed it?

That the Conservatives will prorogue the government, and then essentially concede the same budget that the coalition is proposing in January. The ultimate caving in. This will force the coalition to dissolve as the Liberals would have no further reason to be in it.

Is that clear enough for you?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by ikaris

That the Conservatives will prorogue the government, and then essentially concede the same budget that the coalition is proposing in January. The ultimate caving in. This will force the coalition to dissolve as the Liberals would have no further reason to be in it.

Is that clear enough for you?

That is exactly what I think that they will do.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

The markets were crazy before this, and they'll be crazy after. That's one of the reasons that this whole thing is such bad timing for the Liberals. They should let the Conservatives reign over this and get the bad press from it. Not that the Conservatives will deserve blame either, but we all know how people love to blame the government for all their problems.

If this coalition takes over and reigns through the bad times and then Harper wins the election as things start to turn around, it's going to look bad on the Liberals even if it is just circumstantial.

This makes sense to me...except that the turn-around might be sooner than you are expecting, so really taking over at the bottom is not a bad thing for which-ever side wins this tug-o-war.

That being said I'm not convinced that this is a great time economically for a government change.

[ikaris]

Originally Posted by Slava

That is exactly what I think that they will do.

Ultimately, this will also lead to Harper's resignation as the Conservatives themselves will be disgusted with this resolution.

[Jade]

Originally Posted by ikaris

That the Conservatives will prorogue the government, and then essentially concede the same budget that the coalition is proposing in January. The ultimate caving in. This will force the coalition to dissolve as the Liberals would have no further reason to be in it.

Is that clear enough for you?

They may cave and give up on the coalition due to lack of support of voters, but if it was based on policy, they would have done so already. Conservatives backed down on taking away party funding. Conservatives already agreed to add economic stimulus to their final budget. Coalition talk has picked up steam, instead of dying down. Hence the need to prorogue the government in the first place.

[kevman]

Originally Posted by Bertuzzied

Well here you go. Headline on Yahoo Finance Canada.

Bank stocks take TSX to negative close; NY surges following big losses

Not. Coalition brings the stock market to a grinding halt with a .0094 drop.

http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/0...following.html

The Toronto stock market closed lower Tuesday as rising energy and gold stocks failed to compensate for a slide in bank stocks a day after one of the worst declines on record. New York indexes were positive, starting to revive from the big losses Monday triggered by growing worries about the American economy.


The Canadian dollar was off 0.37 cent to 79.84 cents U.S., as the Liberals and NDP say they're ready to govern in a coalition with Bloc Quebecois support and the minority Conservatives look for a way to retain power.
However, analysts note that the political uncertainty is likely not to blame for the weak performance on the TSX.
"I don't think people are selling Manulife because of what's going on in Ottawa and they're not buying EnCana because of what's going on in Ottawa," said Nakamoto.

Touche, like I said I'll admit fault on that point.

However, let me get this straight... Are you trying to tell me that government stability has ZERO effect on local markets?

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Thunderball

I totally expect another joke GG to be honest. Like Don Cherry or William Shatner or something. I don't see someone like Arthur Kent or Gen. Hillier or anyone like that. 99% of the time, its a joke position. In that 1% of the time, you want someone who will do the best thing with no partisan ties or shady pasts.

Oh, Shatner as official representative of the Queen would be great!

Seriously though, it would be great if this incident was enough to change GGs from being about popularity to being about sound personal history and judgement. Wouldn't it be great if we could all relax, knowing that the crisis would ultimately come down to the judgement of someone who could put aside any personal partisan interests and make a ruling based on historical precedent and the good of the country?

Michealle Jean hasn't really been tested in this capacity and I think she'll be able to put her bias aside, but at the same time, her personal history means that any decision she makes in favour of the coalition will be blamed on her separatist ties and appointment. She doesn't have the necessary optics of impartiality.

[Bertuzzied]

Originally Posted by kevman

Touche, like I said I'll admit fault on that point.

However, let me get this straight... Are you trying to tell me that government stability has ZERO effect on local markets?

Of course not. but obviously this coalition govt is having minimal effect on it.

My point was that it was just not a very good argument thunderball had when he posted the dow, tsx, Cdn$ numbers.

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Oh, Shatner as official representative of the Queen would be great!

Seriously though, it would be great if this incident was enough to change GGs from being about popularity to being about sound personal history and judgement. Wouldn't it be great if we could all relax, knowing that the crisis would ultimately come down to the judgement of someone who could put aside any personal partisan interests and make a ruling based on historical precedent and the good of the country?

Michealle Jean hasn't really been tested in this capacity and I think she'll be able to put her bias aside, but at the same time, her personal history means that any decision she makes in favour of the coalition will be blamed on her separatist ties and appointment. She doesn't have the necessary optics of impartiality.

Ironically, he'd be a great choice for optics.

It would be nice to have Governor-Generals that aren't picked for political correctness, optics, popularity, appeasement or anything like that.

They should really be the finest of Generals, Judges, Ambassadors, etc. Smart people who have made a career on doing the right thing. Regardless of gender, affiliation or otherwise. That arguably has not been the case with the last two... though Clarkson was not really called to task.

My guess is if she gives any indicator she's going to let the coalition happen, Harper's on the next British Airways non-stop to London.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Jade

They may cave and give up on the coalition due to lack of support of voters, but if it was based on policy, they would have done so already. Conservatives backed down on taking away party funding. Conservatives already agreed to add economic stimulus to their final budget. Coalition talk has picked up steam, instead of dying down. Hence the need to prorogue the government in the first place.

I think that this is a personality conflict as much as anything. If I were Dion and had Harper squirming right now, why would you let him off the hook today (even if you were going to next week)?

Basically this is like Jr. High where the kids are tired of being picked on and treated badly. The last budgetary announcements were enough to push them to this action. I don't think that they ever go through with it, but are definitely enjoying watching Harper squirm in the meantime.

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by Bertuzzied

Of course not. but obviously this coalition govt is having minimal effect on it.

My point was that it was just not a very good argument thunderball had when he posted the dow, tsx, Cdn$ numbers.

Well, superficially, that newfound instability comes to mind. Since so much of the financial markets are based on fear, rumor and uncertainty, and since the US markets are doing decent today, its a fair question to ask if this political strife is beginning to damage the economy.

Maybe it isn't, maybe it is... but if the optics are there, the damage is done.

[C_Rush]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servl.../politics/home

Don't know if this has been posted anywhere else, but a good discussion of where the coalition's motives are coming from.