U.S. Elections Prediction Thread

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by HOZ

You should have given an early bird special bonus points on predictions

Well, those of us who posted early can enjoy the admittedly cold comfort of the moral high ground.

[ah123]

Originally Posted by EddyBeers

I am not sure North Dakota going McCain actually qualifies as a wildcard pick, given that the most recent polls show McCain with the lead in the state, I thought on wildcard picks it had to be a pick that went against the conventional wisdom of the polls.

When I did my predictions, CNN had North Dakota as toss-up, so my wild card is that McCain will get North Dakota back...does that count?

[Bagor]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Well, those of us who posted early can enjoy the admittedly cold comfort of the moral high ground.

Can't you edit your picks?

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by ah123

When I did my predictions, CNN had North Dakota as toss-up, so my wild card is that McCain will get North Dakota back...does that count?

Any state that I didn't list as a swing state is fine for a wild card pick. Arbitrary, but someone's gotta make the rules!

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Bagor

Can't you edit your picks?

Well sure--but that's not very sporting, is it?

As states get called, I'm going to post them in this thread. If everyone doesn't mind, just keep track of your own score and post it when everything's done--I have a pile of grading tonight, and won't have time to score everyone's prediction card separately. I will, however, compile the final results when it's all over, and declare a winnar!

[GirlySports]

Hope I'm not too late!

1. Popular vote: Obama 53.6, McCain 44.4

2. Electoral College: Obama 359, McCain 179

3. Here are my "swing state" predictions (1 point each):
1. Virginia - Obama
2. North Carolina - McCain
3. New Hampshire - Obama
4. Ohio - Obama
5. Indiana - McCain
6. Florida - Obama
7. Colorado - Obama
8. Nevada - Obama
9. New Mexico - Obama
10. Missouri - Obama
11. Wisconsin - Obama
12. Minnesota - Obama
13. Iowa - Obama
14. Pennsylvania - Obama
15. West Virginia - McCain

4. Wildcard: Arizona will go to Obama

5. Recount in Penn. (hard to have a recount in a landslide)

[Flame On]

1. (5 points) I predict that the total popular vote share will be: McCain 46, Obama 54.

2. (5 points) I predict that the total electoral college vote will be: McCain 217, Obama 321.

3. Here are my "swing state" predictions (1 point each):
1. Virginia - O
2. North Carolina - M
3. New Hampshire - O
4. Ohio - M
5. Indiana - M
6. Florida - O
7. Colorado - O
8. Nevada - O
9. New Mexico - O
10. Missouri - M
11. Wisconsin - O
12. Minnesota - O
13. Iowa - O
14. Pennsylvania - O
15. West Virginia - M

4. My "Wild Card" pick is that (state) will go to (candidate) (15 points)
Montana - O

5. Tiebreaker question (only counts if two players are tied for 1st. Predict which state will be subject to a recount or protracted legal battle. Let's say 1 point for a correct answer. Florida

[Bagor]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Well sure--but that's not very sporting, is it?

I wouldn't have had a problem with it as long as it was done prior to midnight last night.

What would be unsporting about it? Situations change which could lead to you second guessing yourself.

[flamey_mcflame]

1. (5 points) I predict that the total popular vote share will be:

Obama 55 McCain 45
2. (5 points) I predict that the total electoral college vote will be:

Obama 364 McCain 174

3. Here are my "swing state" predictions (1 point each):
1. Virginia--Obama
2. North Carolina--Obama
3. New Hampshire--Obama
4. Ohio--Obama
5. Indiana--Obama
6. Florida--Obama
7. Colorado--Obama
8. Nevada --Obama
9. New Mexico--Obama
10. Missouri--McCain
11. Wisconsin--Obama
12. Minnesota--Obama
13. Iowa--Obama
14. Pennsylvania--Obama
15. West Virginia--McCain

4. My "Wild Card" pick is that Arizona will go to Obama (15 points)


5. Predict which state will be subject to a recount or protracted legal battle

Indiana

Polls are underestimating Obama support. That is all.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

West Virginia goes to McCain. Mark it down!

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

MSNBC reports Pennsylvania and New Hampshire to Obama.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Minnesota and Wisconsin go to Obama.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Those people following the other thread will know this--but Obama picks up Ohio and New Mexico.

[GirlySports]

my pick of obama 359 is getting closer and closer hehe
although i think everyone picked a landslide

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

my pick of obama 359 is getting closer and closer hehe
although i think everyone picked a landslide

Not me. I picked a narrow Obama win.

Virginia and Florida go to Obama, per CNN and the AP.

[Displaced Flames fan]

Looks like I'm about 8 EV off.

I rule.

[HOZ]

Crushed! Still think there should have been an early bird special.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by HOZ

Crushed! Still think there should have been an early bird special.

You and me both. I made my picks assuming there would be tightening. There was supposed to be tightening!!!

As for Dis, this ball game ain't over--you may get your 8 votes.

It looks like Indiana will go narrowly for Obama. Ditto for North Carolina, though it hasn't been called yet. Obama may still win Nebraska's 2nd district--it's extremely close. I think it'll narrowly stay with McCain.

It looks like McCain will also narrowly keep Missouri, and I think Montana--though neither has yet been called.

Assuming no more surprises, that would put the total electoral count at Obama 364, McCain 173.

The popular vote looks to be drifting toward a 4-5 point gap as well--about 52-47.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

The popular vote looks to be drifting toward a 4-5 point gap as well--about 52-47.

I hope so, that's the score that I called. Doesn't look like there's any chance of North Carolina flipping to McCain still, is there? Because if it did, I'd be dead on with my EV total.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by octothorp

I hope so, that's the score that I called. Doesn't look like there's any chance of North Carolina flipping to McCain still, is there? Because if it did, I'd be dead on with my EV total.

I don't think so. Obama's up 20,000 votes with 100% reporting. Seems likely to stay that way. They haven't called it yet, so until then there's always hope, I guess.