U.S. Elections Prediction Thread

[EddyBeers]

Originally Posted by ah123

1. (5 points) I predict that the total popular vote share will be: 46, Obama 51, Other 3

2. (5 points) I predict that the total electoral college vote will be: McCain 273, Obama 265.

3. Here are my "swing state" predictions (1 point each):
1. Virginia - McCain
2. North Carolina - McCain
3. New Hampshire - McCain
4. Ohio - McCain
5. Indiana - McCain
6. Florida - McCain
7. Colorado - McCain
8. Nevada - Obama
9. New Mexico - Obama
10. Missouri - McCain
11. Wisconsin - Obama
12. Minnesota - McCain
13. Iowa - Obama
14. Pennsylvania - Obama
15. West Virginia - McCain

4. My "Wild Card" pick is that North Dakota will go to McCain (15 points)

5. Florida

I am not sure North Dakota going McCain actually qualifies as a wildcard pick, given that the most recent polls show McCain with the lead in the state, I thought on wildcard picks it had to be a pick that went against the conventional wisdom of the polls.

[CrusaderPi]

Obama wins, but doesn't cover the spread.

[Bagor]

Originally Posted by ah123

4. My "Wild Card" pick is that North Dakota will go to McCain (15 points)

I think you might have to resubmit that one.

It's been red for as long as I can remember.

[Stumptown]

I didn't opt in earlier, but I saw this new thread and have an eerily similar pool going with some coworkers. I've changed my mind on a couple states, let's see if my Saturday predictions are any better than Wednesday's.

1. McCain 41, Obama 56. I think the pollsters are really discounting the Nader/Barr/Paul factor, a lot of voters (especially Republicans) will pick one of them as a protest vote.

2. McCain 159, Obama 379.

3. Here are my "swing state" predictions (1 point each):
1. Virginia - Obama
2. North Carolina - Obama
3. New Hampshire - Obama
4. Ohio - Obama
5. Indiana - McCain
6. Florida - Obama
7. Colorado - Obama
8. Nevada - McCain
9. New Mexico - Obama
10. Missouri - Obama
11. Wisconsin - Obama
12. Minnesota - Obama
13. Iowa - Obama
14. Pennsylvania - Obama
15. West Virginia - McCain

4. My "Wild Card" pick is that North Dakota will go to Obama - the Daschle factor pays off.

5. Nevada - the Dems have been really working their asses off in Nevada, I think it will be very close but eventually fall to McCain. And with all the business ties McCain has to Big Gambling, there's sure to be litigation if it's at all close.

[Weiser Wonder]

1. 53 Obama, 46 McCain

2. 348 Obama - 190 McCain

3. Here are my "swing state" predictions (1 point each):
1. Virginia - Obama
2. North Carolina - McCain
3. New Hampshire - Obama
4. Ohio - Obama
5. Indiana - McCain
6. Florida - Obama
7. Colorado - Obama
8. Nevada - Obama
9. New Mexico - Obama
10. Missouri - McCain
11. Wisconsin - Obama
12. Minnesota - Obama
13. Iowa - Obama
14. Pennsylvania - Obama
15. West Virginia - McCain



4. My "Wild Card" pick is that Arizona will go to Obama. (go big or go home I guess haha)

5. Missouri

[Montana Moe]

Originally Posted by Displaced Flames fan

I see I've talked about my birth state a little too much. I blame Moe too.

I, for one, will be voting for Dr. Paul, and I have a feeling that we Conservatives/Libertarians will deliver Montana for Obama.

Originally Posted by Stumptown

4. My "Wild Card" pick is that North Dakota will go to Obama - the Daschle factor pays off.

Daschle is from South Dakota, do you think he has much influence in ND? He seems to be about the opposite of every North Dakotan I know. Nonetheless, I think Obama wins in ND as well, Wyoming and South Dakota will be Republican stalwarts.

[transplant99]

1. (5 points) I predict that the total popular vote share will be:

Obama 51 McCain 47

2. (5 points) I predict that the total electoral college vote will be:

Obama 326 McCain 212.

3. Here are my "swing state" predictions (1 point each):
1. Virginia--Obama
2. North Carolina--Obama
3. New Hampshire--McCain
4. Ohio--Obama
5. Indiana--McCain
6. Florida--Obama
7. Colorado--Obama
8. Nevada --Obama
9. New Mexico--Obama
10. Missouri--McCain
11. Wisconsin--Obama
12. Minnesota--Obama
13. Iowa--Obama
14. Pennsylvania--Obama
15. West Virginia--McCain

4. My "Wild Card" pick is that North Carolina will go to Obama (15 points)


5. Predict which state will be subject to a recount or protracted legal battle

North dakota

And just for fun I also predict the Democrats will end up with 59 Senate seats including Al Franken in Minnesota.

[Nehkara]

Without reading anyone else's prediction, so mine is purely mine... I have two projections:

If there has been an underestimation of Obama's true strength: (Obama wins with 396 EV)





If there has been an overestimation of Obama's true strength: (Obama wins with 286 EV)



Within the rules:

1. (5 points) I predict that the total popular vote share will be: McCain 47, Obama 53.

2. (5 points) I predict that the total electoral college vote will be: McCain 142, Obama 396.

3. Here are my "swing state" predictions (1 point each):
1. Virginia (Obama)
2. North Carolina (Obama)
3. New Hampshire (Obama)
4. Ohio (Obama)
5. Indiana (Obama)
6. Florida (Obama)
7. Colorado (Obama)
8. Nevada (Obama)
9. New Mexico (Obama)
10. Missouri (Obama)
11. Wisconsin (Obama)
12. Minnesota (Obama)
13. Iowa (Obama)
14. Pennsylvania (Obama)
15. West Virginia (McCain)

4. My "Wild Card" pick is that (state) will go to (candidate) (15 points)
Georgia will go to Obama.

5. Tiebreaker question (only counts if two players are tied for 1st. Predict which state will be subject to a recount or protracted legal battle. Let's say 1 point for a correct answer.
Georgia.

[Stumptown]

Originally Posted by Montana Moe

Daschle is from South Dakota, do you think he has much influence in ND? He seems to be about the opposite of every North Dakotan I know. Nonetheless, I think Obama wins in ND as well, Wyoming and South Dakota will be Republican stalwarts.

Doh! Can't believe I mixed that up.

One of my coworkers in my other pool (who, I might add, correctly called the Palin pick months before the fact, when no one knew who she was) thinks Obama's going to take Montana as well. Is Ron Paul on the ballot there, or just a write-in? He's a write-in here in Oregon, and even so I'm betting he gets more votes here than Nader, and we went 5% for Nader in 2000. From what I gathered on a trip through the inner west this summer, Paul's got a massive base that I think is being really underestimated by the rest of the country. I'd love to see him get a party going in some of those states to try to get some seats at the local level.

[Montana Moe]

Ron Paul is on the ballot here in Montana. He's listed under the Constitution Party, though he had asked to be removed.

Although I have fundamental disagreements with the Constitution Party, I will be voting for Dr. Paul.

Perot got 26% of the vote in 1992, Montanans aren't afraid to eschew the major candidates. Of course, only having 3 electoral votes allows us some freedom to know we don't make a lot of difference, but get all of the "square states" together, and we may be on to something...

[Displaced Flames fan]

[quote=Iowa_Flames_Fan;1477452]:


1. (5 points) I predict that the total popular vote share will be: McCain 43, Obama 55.

2. (5 points) I predict that the total electoral college vote will be: McCain 163, Obama 375.

3. Here are my "swing state" predictions (1 point each):
1. Virginia-O
2. North Carolina-O
3. New Hampshire-O
4. Ohio-O
5. Indiana-M
6. Florida-O
7. Colorado-O
8. Nevada -O
9. New Mexico-O
10. Missouri-M
11. Wisconsin-O
12. Minnesota-O
13. Iowa-O
14. Pennsylvania-O
15. West Virginia-O

4. My "Wild Card" pick is that (state) will go to (candidate) (15 points)

Montana is going blue this year.

5. Tiebreaker question (only counts if two players are tied for 1st. Predict which state will be subject to a recount or protracted legal battle. Let's say 1 point for a correct answer. ---I'll go with Missouri here.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

I'm going to bump this, given that the election's tomorrow.

[Bagor]

1. (5 points) I predict that the total popular vote share will be: McCain 44, Obama 54.

2. (5 points) I predict that the total electoral college vote will be: McCain 171, Obama 367.

3. Here are my "swing state" predictions (1 point each):
1. Virginia--Obama
2. North Carolina--Obama
3. New Hampshire--Obama
4. Ohio--Obama
5. Indiana--McCain
6. Florida--Obama
7. Colorado--Obama
8. Nevada --Obama
9. New Mexico--Obama
10. Missouri--Obama
11. Wisconsin--Obama
12. Minnesota--Obama
13. Iowa--Obama
14. Pennsylvania--Obama
15. West Virginia--McCain

4. My "Wild Card" pick is that Montana will go to Obama (15 points)


5. Predict which state will be subject to a recount or protracted legal battle
Missouri

[transplant99]

1. (5 points) I predict that the total popular vote share will be: McCain 44, Obama 54.

2. (5 points) I predict that the total electoral college vote will be: McCain 367, Obama 171.

Somethings backwards here.

[Bagor]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Somethings backwards here.

Thanks!

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

one more bump for good measure. I didn't stipulate a deadline, but we should probably have a tacit deadline of some time tonight, I would think.

[Devils'Advocate]

Originally Posted by Bagor

4. My "Wild Card" pick is that North Carolina will go to Obama (15 points)

You can't pick North Carolina. You have to pick outside the states in question 3. You can pick South Carolina, but that would not be wise.

Normally, I'd love to participate but I remember the heartbreak of watching my Devils lose in 7 games to Colorado back in 2001 when I had put $100 on them winning. I won't put my bad luck behind Obama.

[Bagor]

Originally Posted by Devils'Advocate

You can't pick North Carolina. You have to pick outside the states in question 3. You can pick South Carolina, but that would not be wise.

Picks edited. Thanks.

Transplant, same goes for you.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Devils'Advocate

Normally, I'd love to participate but I remember the heartbreak of watching my Devils lose in 7 games to Colorado back in 2001 when I had put $100 on them winning. I won't put my bad luck behind Obama.

So? Take McCain to win!

[HOZ]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

one more bump for good measure. I didn't stipulate a deadline, but we should probably have a tacit deadline of some time tonight, I would think.

You should have given an early bird special bonus points on predictions