The ongoing financial turmoil and financial discussion thread - Page 19 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Slava · 10-24-2008, 09:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daradon

I see the wisdom, for sure. Still think I'd hold off a little while longer. Think we might see the Dow round 7,000 yet.

Heck, it might be interesting to see the way the election pans out. That could have a large effect too. World confidence and such.

I should've clarified my thought a little. I wouldn't buy into the US in a big way yet. I think that they have some major pain before things turn there no matter who wins the election.

In Canada however, the market has been testing 9000 for a few weeks and just doesn't stay under. I'm not a big technical analysis type of investor, but you have to consider the companies that you can buy for an amazing discount right now.

Daradon · 10-24-2008, 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Slava

I should've clarified my thought a little. I wouldn't buy into the US in a big way yet. I think that they have some major pain before things turn there no matter who wins the election.

In Canada however, the market has been testing 9000 for a few weeks and just doesn't stay under. I'm not a big technical analysis type of investor, but you have to consider the companies that you can buy for an amazing discount right now.

True, and we are supposedly in better shape here than south of the border.

DementedReality · 10-24-2008, 10:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Slava

... you have to consider the companies that you can buy for an amazing discount right now.

are you doing stocks too?

Slava · 10-25-2008, 06:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DementedReality

are you doing stocks too?

No...not until the spring.

FanIn80 · 10-27-2008, 12:56 PM

Does anyone know the latest dollar projections? I'm waiting for it to come back up, but it appears we keep going lower and lower... I have a buddy that wants to buy something from the US but he refuses to pay the current exchange.

Needless to say, he and I got into a discussion about the dollar and trends.

MoneyGuy · 10-27-2008, 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Does anyone know the latest dollar projections? I'm waiting for it to come back up, but it appears we keep going lower and lower... I have a buddy that wants to buy something from the US but he refuses to pay the current exchange.

Needless to say, he and I got into a discussion about the dollar and trends.

Understand one thing: No one knows what the short term will deliver, be it the stock market or currencies. I'm glad I bought $15k of US dollars when the loonie was above par. We travel lots in the Excited States and this cushions us for a few years.

Bob · 10-27-2008, 02:21 PM

Whoa, the TSX just got smoked in late-day trading.

Phanuthier · 10-27-2008, 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob

Whoa, the TSX just got smoked in late-day trading.

I saw the DOW at +12, went to go make some lunch, come back 10 minute later and its -200. Laughed my ass off.

JiriHrdina · 10-27-2008, 02:24 PM

^Yes because people losing their retirements funds is good comedy!

Ronald Pagan · 10-27-2008, 02:29 PM

Sounds like Jiri lost some money.

JiriHrdina · 10-27-2008, 02:30 PM

^Sure. But I'm fine because I'm 33. So whatever.

But this whole thing has hammered my folks who are retired. They were invested in very conservative vehicles and still got smoked. Now my dad is talking about going back to work.

So yeah - I guess I'm not cracking up about it. My parents are at the age that they don't need this.

Phanuthier · 10-27-2008, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fotze

I think he meant it is almost comic how fundamentally fataed the market is right now, I know I'm trying to laugh this stuff off especially considering that evil greedy P.O.S's are what caused this.

They had a follow-up on this stuff on 60 minutes and there was a guy who said there a a handful of people who made in excess of a billion dollars betting that this would happen, all bets taken but not coverable apparently by 'financial experts' with unsuspecting peoples money.

I used to think the free market will take care of almost anything but this garbage has changed that. I hate that I have to believe that the government is needed to protect us from greedy pricks and stupid people.

Yeah pretty much. I didn't know what to say to Jiri's reply there.

200 points lost on the DOW isn't going to whipe out a life savings. What I found funny was in 10 minutes, it swung over 200 points down. Bear markets have some crazy swings. -777, +900, -700 all within a couple days.

JiriHrdina · 10-27-2008, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

Yeah pretty much. I didn't know what to say to Jiri's reply there.

200 points lost on the DOW isn't going to whipe out a life savings. What I found funny was in 10 minutes, it swung over 200 points down. Bear markets have some crazy swings. -777, +900, -700 all within a couple days.

Fair enough - I misunderstood. I have encountered some people that are actually taking joy in all this - which I find sickening.

Finner · 10-27-2008, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

^Sure. But I'm fine because I'm 33. So whatever.

But this whole thing has hammered my folks who are retired. They were invested in very conservative vehicles and still got smoked. Now my dad is talking about going back to work.

So yeah - I guess I'm not cracking up about it. My parents are at the age that they don't need this.

I definitely hope he didn't sell what he held. Estimates for recovery to last years levels (ie. TSX at 13000-14000 ish) are 12-18 months.

JiriHrdina · 10-27-2008, 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Finner

I definitely hope he didn't sell what he held. Estimates for recovery to last years levels (ie. TSX at 13000-14000 ish) are 12-18 months.

God no. There's no point now. I've told him to stick it out.

Though I've heard other estimates put the recovery period at much longer than 12-18 months.

mykalberta · 10-27-2008, 02:45 PM

Remember, that alot of good companys have corporate bonds that pay out 8% - that is where I have put the majority of my money into.

GE Capital and some others are very solid companies IMO.

My dad is in same position Jiri's - he retired early now he thinks he might hve to go back into the workforce (he retired really early - 54).

Phanuthier · 10-27-2008, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fotze

The funny part is all the ######bag analysts who pretend they know what happened in the market that day.

"The markets were down today because of fundamental bullcrap that we don't know anything about happened somewhere and some other thing happened iin this sory and we have no idea how it relates to the market but I need to look like I know what I'm talking about to collect a paycheck".

At least oil price explanations are for one thing or the other, confidence in the market, at least they are admitting that its speculation - 90% and supply 10%.

I get the feeling that the entire worlds financial system is affected and manipulated by 20,000 extremely rich and smart people in and around wall street and I have no doubt these crazy fluctuations right now are those same guys passing around our collective nipples sucking the last little bit of milk out.

Well, the stock market is a zero sum game: for every dollar gained is a dollar lost. Alot of money was lost, so some people must have made a killing.

It is funny to read those analysts and the crazy words thrown out there to try and explain what happened. Stocks "crash" and its investors sell on fears that the recession is deep. The next day, stocks "surge" on investor confidence that the market is turning around. The next day, stocks "crash" based on poor earnings report of some company. The next day, stocks "surge" based on speculation the feds will cut interest rates. And so on.

mykalberta · 10-27-2008, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

Well, the stock market is a zero sum game: for every dollar gained is a dollar lost. Alot of money was lost, so some people must have made a killing.

It is funny to read those analysts and the crazy words thrown out there to try and explain what happened. Stocks "crash" and its investors sell on fears that the recession is deep. The next day, stocks "surge" on investor confidence that the market is turning around. The next day, stocks "crash" based on poor earnings report of some company. The next day, stocks "surge" based on speculation the feds will cut interest rates. And so on.

They had an interesting 60 minutes show. Apparently some Hedge Fund Managers made out very good in the Credit Default Swaps as in the multi billion in profits kind of good. They listed some names and companies that I havent heard of.

After watching a few of the last 60 minutes programs, the whole mess is making a little bit more sense - not a lot but a little.

Table 5 · 10-27-2008, 03:05 PM

You didn't necessarily have to be a hedge fund manager to make money off of this downturn. A general investor could have profited during this downturn by going short instead of long on stocks. There are even ETFs out there that go up when things go down.

Claeren · 10-27-2008, 03:12 PM

Good overview of what Europe is facing right now (total meltdown) and some of the ways that the unwinding of the Yen carry trade is playing out around the world.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...-meltdown.html

I am thinking that people will panic (again, and for good reason) and throw the markets into freefall (again, and for good reason) before the market shows some fundamental reason to start going up again. Just my gut feeling though, as I keep saying, the world is in the middle of a solvency problem not a liquidity problem. The volatility between present and future is irrelevant (for most people) though.

Claeren.