40th Canadian Federal Election - Welcome to another Conservative Minority (whee!)

[CaptainCrunch]

I doubt in terms of leadership safety that Harper is in any danger at all, and I doubt that he's going to resign the Prime Minstership after getting a pretty good increase in seats.

This government will probably last about the same amount of time as the last one depending on the Liberal's leadership crisis and bank account.

Even combined the Libs and NDP don't have the seats or probably the will to topple this government. The Bloc is the wild card and its going to force the Conservatives to be a little more sensitive to Quebec.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by 4X4

Any fluent french people here? Can anyone give me an idea of how good (or bad) Harper's french is? It sounds good, but I stopped taking french in grade 8.

It's pretty good. It came a long way from where it was before he was party leader... at least according to French people I know.

[the_only_turek_fan]

The electorates have moved left in the last 2 years - CBC.

[Devils'Advocate]

Originally Posted by browna

^^
20 more seats is 7% more.

As T99 said, this party had 2 seats 15 years ago. Baby steps in some people's mind, but more then a reconfirmation this time around...building trust and familarity in Harper and the Conservative party.

This 2 seats crap is absolute BS. This Conservative party is the merging of the Reform party and the Progressive Conservatives. Those giving the 2 seats figure are obvious homers wearing their rose coloured glasses.

I don't think "trust and familiarity" is going to go much further. Albertans think that Easterners are going to swap out their liberal values if they just got to know Harper better. It's not going to happen. Under the absolute worst leadership the Liberal party has most likely ever seen, the Conservatives were unable to get a majority. I think we may have seen the high water mark for the Conservatives tonight.

[Reggie Dunlop]

Bon travail, Monsieur 'Arpheur

[the_only_turek_fan]

The one thing is that the 5 party system is not working.....its really hard to get a majority and hence will have a session or two of parliament and then we are back at the polls soon.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Devils'Advocate

Nobody got what they wanted tonight.

Harper was hoping for a majority.
Dion was hoping to keep his job.
Layton was hoping to break the NDP high water mark of 40 set under Broadbent.
Duceppe was hoping to get 50% of the popular vote in Quebec, which might have revived separatist hopes for the party.
And well, May saw her party shut out yet again.

Duceppe and Layton are likely safe in their jobs. Dion is all but gone. Harper may be getting frustrated with these minority governments and he may decide to move on, but if he wants to continue the party will likely support him. May... I haven't the foggiest clue what the Greens want to do there. She's gotten the party further than they have ever gone before and yet that is still nowhere.

I agree and disagree, I think after the debates that the Conservatives were just hoping for a stronger mandate and they certainly did that.

Dion and the Liberal's were a massive failure especially in terms of losing seats in what used to be their fortress in Ontario, and without a miracle they won't be able to count on getting those back.

Layton I think has to be really disappointed in my mind, Layton ran a strong campaign and he didn't get a massive increase in seats nor did he get a Broadbent type of voter interest.

May actually took the party backwards, she not only didn't win a seat, but their popularity at last check was 6%, and their floor crossing MP lost his seat so the Greens literally have no voice in government.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Bagor

Anyone know how seat numbers are determined?

I've just done a quick search by population and they don't correlate at all.

e.g.

Province, No Seats, Popn (thousands)
Sask, 14, 968
Alberta, 28, 3290


Is it by number of registered voters?

Each province was given a minimum allotment when they joined confederation, and that number cannot go down for any reason. Thus, some provinces (especially Quebec and PEI) are massively over represented, while others (Alberta, Ontario) are under represented.

And I agree with CC. The odds of a majority government occurring in the near future are very small as long as the BQ is a major player. The Liberals only won their huge majorities in the 90s because the right was fractured. It is now unified, putting the Conservatives on an even keel with the Liberals. The BQ and NDP are strong fringe parties - neither will ever govern, but both are successful enough to prevent Canada's two governing parties from achieving a majority very easily.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Devils'Advocate

This 2 seats crap is absolute BS. This Conservative party is the merging of the Reform party and the Progressive Conservatives. Those giving the 2 seats figure are obvious homers wearing their rose coloured glasses.

I don't think "trust and familiarity" is going to go much further. Albertans think that Easterners are going to swap out their liberal values if they just got to know Harper better. It's not going to happen. Under the absolute worst leadership the Liberal party has most likely ever seen, the Conservatives were unable to get a majority. I think we may have seen the high water mark for the Conservatives tonight.

Maybe, but its a little soon to be predicting that. I could just as easily predict that we haven't seen the lowest that the Liberals could go.

[Devils'Advocate]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I agree and disagree, I think after the debates that the Conservatives were just hoping for a stronger mandate and they certainly did that.

Dion and the Liberal's were a massive failure especially in terms of losing seats in what used to be their fortress in Ontario, and without a miracle they won't be able to count on getting those back.

Layton I think has to be really disappointed in my mind, Layton ran a strong campaign and he didn't get a massive increase in seats nor did he get a Broadbent type of voter interest.

May actually took the party backwards, she not only didn't win a seat, but their popularity at last check was 6%, and their floor crossing MP lost his seat so the Greens literally have no voice in government.

So you agree that Dion, Layton and May are disappointed, but disagree that your guy is disappointed. Why did I not see that coming? It's really hard to have any kind of give and take in this forum.

[Bagor]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Each province was given a minimum allotment when they joined confederation, and that number cannot go down for any reason. Thus, some provinces (especially Quebec and PEI) are massively over represented, while others (Alberta, Ontario) are under represented.

Thanks.

Bout time they revisited that IMO.

Isn't one of the fundamentals of democracy proportional representation?

[the_only_turek_fan]

I don't understand how having a picture ID with your address to vote is a new rule?

That was the most alarming thing of the whole day.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Devils'Advocate

So you agree that Dion, Layton and May are disappointed, but disagree that your guy is disappointed. Why did I not see that coming? It's really hard to have any kind of give and take in this forum.

Oh come on, don't be like that. Frankly it was only a few days ago that the polls and the pundants were predicting a even or even worse minority for the Conservatives, instead they made some nice gains where they didn't have them before. Where the Conservatives have to be unhappy is their performance in Quebec, however I think with a strong bloc party that the balancing act between Quebec values and the rest of Canada values are out of sync.

While the Conservatives wanted a majority, I think that they realized that they lost that sometime around the debates and are happy that they showed a pretty significant gain.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Each province was given a minimum allotment when they joined confederation, and that number cannot go down for any reason. Thus, some provinces (especially Quebec and PEI) are massively over represented, while others (Alberta, Ontario) are under represented.

And I agree with CC. The odds of a majority government occurring in the near future are very small as long as the BQ is a major player. The Liberals only won their huge majorities in the 90s because the right was fractured. It is now unified, putting the Conservatives on an even keel with the Liberals. The BQ and NDP are strong fringe parties - neither will ever govern, but both are successful enough to prevent Canada's two governing parties from achieving a majority very easily.

Ideologically, the NDP and Bloc are closer the Liberals though. So it's a bit of double edged sword for people who vote for them. They are in way, helping a party win that takes them even further away from their own goals...

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Ideologically, the NDP and Bloc are closer the Liberals though. So it's a bit of double edged sword for people who vote for them. They are in way, helping a party win that takes them even further away from their own goals...

Honestly, I think parts of Bloq idealism mirror the Liberals, parts mirror the Conservatives, and of course part is their own brand of nonsense. they are the true wildcard.

[KevanGuy]

Originally Posted by Shawnski

Oh, and Craig Oliver really needs to be put out to pasture...

That's the truth. Also, I was disappointed at how little local coverage there was on CTV.

[CaptainCrunch]

On individual placements, I was happy to see Garth Turner lost his seat. I was somewhat surprised to see Trudeau winning his seat, hopefully he throws his hat into the leadership ring with Bob Rae.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Bagor

Thanks.

Bout time they revisited that IMO.

Isn't one of the fundamentals of democracy proportional representation?

It is, and Canada is roughly proportional, but to change this would require constitutional amendments. Per the BNA act, Manitoba and Saskatchewan are allotted a minimum of 14 seats. Alberta gets a minimum of 21.

We should be due for redistricting soon, as I don't think it happened after the 2001 census and it is required to be revisited every decade. The thing of it is, MB and SK will not see an increase in seats until their populations grow past 1.4-1.5 million each. Alberta is likely to pick up 3-5 more seats when the boundaries are redrawn, so the proportions will slowly even out.

It is the Maritimes that are massively over-represented because of the constitutional laws. No province can have more Senators than MPs, so while PEI should only have one MP, since they have four Senators, they get three bonus MPs.

It is the Senate where massive reform is required. It's a complete joke that PEI has 4 Senators to Alberta's 6. Either go EEE (which they should do), or redistructure it so that the provinces are more adequately represented.

[getbak]

Looking at the results in Calgary Southwest (where I live)...Harper got 72.9% of the vote, improving on his results from last time. The Green Party candidate (whose background seemed more in sync with the Marijuana Party than the Green) finished less than 200 votes behind the Liberal and 600 ahead of the NDP.

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

It is, and Canada is roughly proportional, but to change this would require constitutional amendments. Per the BNA act, Manitoba and Saskatchewan are allotted a minimum of 14 seats. Alberta gets a minimum of 21.

We should be due for redistricting soon, as I don't think it happened after the 2001 census and it is required to be revisited every decade. The thing of it is, MB and SK will not see an increase in seats until their populations grow past 1.4-1.5 million each. Alberta is likely to pick up 3-5 more seats when the boundaries are redrawn, so the proportions will slowly even out.

It is the Maritimes that are massively over-represented because of the constitutional laws. No province can have more Senators than MPs, so while PEI should only have one MP, since they have four Senators, they get three bonus MPs.

It is the Senate where massive reform is required. It's a complete joke that PEI has 4 Senators to Alberta's 6. Either go EEE (which they should do), or redistructure it so that the provinces are more adequately represented.

If I remember correctly redistribution is done every second census; but it takes some time to institute. It was done after the 2001 census and became effective for the 2004 election. So it ends up happening roughly every ten years.