The ongoing financial turmoil and financial discussion thread

[Shawnski]

Originally Posted by I-Hate-Hulse

I've also applied for one of those 0% for 15 months credit cards. I'll balance transfer the cash off of it to a high interest account just for liquid access to cash. A hell of a lot less than my line of credit (0%!)...

You might want to rethink doing that. Every credit card I know of charges regular interest rates for cash withdrawals from the date it occurs.

[I-Hate-Hulse]

Originally Posted by Shawnski

You might want to rethink doing that. Every credit card I know of charges regular interest rates for cash withdrawals from the date it occurs.

Not this one, I've actually had one for about year now and will apply for a 2nd (to retire the 1st one). 1% of the amount transferred was the one time fee and it has truly been 0%. Just make your payments on time and don't exceed the 15 month period.

I can see how one of these can get someone undisciplined into trouble...

[Phanuthier]

Dumb question, what metric do people here use to see the end of a bear market and the beginning of a bull?

CPI?
Unemployment?
Housing prices / car prices?

IHH, how it has affected my life... well, I've started to learn and follow economics and the stock market with more interest then I ever did. And I'm starting to rethink vacation trips and put that money in the market instead.

Anyways, I just want to say I enjoy reading people's take (Slava, MoneyGuy, Claeren, Finner, thank you all) and try and do my own due diligence.

[Nancy]

Not this one, I've actually had one for about year now and will apply for a 2nd (to retire the 1st one). 1% of the amount transferred was the one time fee and it has truly been 0%. Just make your payments on time and don't exceed the 15 month period.

Which one is it... can you post a link?

[Slava]

As a "Perma-bull" or at least someone who sees the glass as 1/2 full I feel the need to explain why I believe what I do. First let me say that this doesn't mean that yesterdays low is the lowest things get, or that the markets will never drop again. But here are a few things that give me confidence from a more statistical point of view:

- If we assume that the economic slow-down began last November/December (which is widely agreed upon), and project that the recession is largely over by the end of 2Q 2009 (again widely agreed upon) than we are about 60% of the way through. 60% is a bad score on a test in high-school, but critical in financial history!

- Historically the markets have bottomed at about the 60% mark of recessions going back to the early 30's. This means that while the recession is not over (and indeed most average people haven't felt the effects yet) that the recovery begins sooner in the markets than it does in the economy as a whole.

- Investor sentiment is very low right now (again widely agreed upon). When investor sentiment is as low as it is the returns over the next year are generally in the 24% bracket. This is the case 96% of the time.

- Companies are trading at P/E ratios that, when indexed for inflation, take you back to the 1970's. Clearly there are bargains out there right now, and through time you will see the value of these bargains. Holdings you buy today are going to be prized holdings in 4-5 years.

- Volatility is high right now (as measured by the VIX). This is an interesting point as it generally denotes that we are near the top or near the bottom. I would find few people willing to take the position that we are at the top of the market, or anywhere near it!!

Lastly, I have to make a general comment about the media. I saw a financial advisor on the news the other night make a comment that he "never saw a mutual fund that he liked". Meanwhile this individual is selling segregated funds (which save for some tax and estate differences are very similar!!). My point here is that you have to be very careful reading the cover of the paper or watching the usual news sources to get investment advice; their job is to sell papers/increase viewers and lets face it...bad news does this for them.

Some of you have seen me in the political threads, and if so you know that this is a stretch for me to say openly...but Stephen Harper is totally right here! The economy is fundamentally strong, and there are great buying opportunities to be had.

-

[MoneyGuy]

The markets tend to recover 6-9 months before the economy does because investor expectations are priced in.
"Permabull"

[Phanuthier]

Its another begining of the week, and every week seems to open with a crisis.

This week...

On the heels of a panic-riddled sell-off that caused the Dow industrials and the S&P 500 to plummet for eight days in a row, finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven rich industrialized nations met on Friday to discuss jammed credit markets and the staggering global economy. Over the weekend, bankers from the Group of 20 emerging and industrialized nations also were scheduled to meet in Washington ahead of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings.
While corporate earnings season gets into full swing next week, results will likely be on the back burner as investors struggle to see through the fog of fear that has engulfed the market.
Among financial institutions, JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), and Capital One Financial Corp (COF.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) are all expected to release results.
Investors also will get a reading on September inflation with the release of the U.S. Producer Price Index on Wednesday and the Consumer Price Index on Thursday. September housing starts are due on Friday.
But concerns that credit markets have not limbered up, despite a spate of moves to free up money from the Federal Reserve and other central banks, will remain the chief focus for market watchers.
"Normally, I would say we are entering earnings season. But this is purely an emotion-driven market," said Owen Fitzpatrick, head of the U.S. equity group at Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management in New York.

And Europe is bracing...

http://www.reuters.com/article/euDea...49B34720081012

(Reuters) - Top European leaders holding an emergency meeting on the global financial crisis in Paris on Sunday rushed to craft a credible response before fearful world markets reopen, pledging to pump public money into banks.

This market has largely been quite calm and slow in the recession, at least until the past 1-2 weeks, when bear markets tend to be turbulent. I think we're starting to move into the phase of panic.

[Finner]

Anybody read that article that GM tried to merge with Ford and got turned down, and is now in talks with Chrysler?

Should be interesting.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by Finner

Anybody read that article that GM tried to merge with Ford and got turned down, and is now in talks with Chrysler?

Should be interesting.

I had no idea there were talks to merge with Ford?

And haven't the talks about merging with Chrysler being going on for years?

[Finner]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

I had no idea there were talks to merge with Ford?

And haven't the talks about merging with Chrysler being going on for years?

Here's the link. I hadn't really read much about it before today.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/12/bu...0A&oref=slogin

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by Finner

Here's the link. I hadn't really read much about it before today.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/12/bu...0A&oref=slogin

Well I remember it being mentioned in the news a couple days ago (starting with the Merill Lynch / Lehman Brothers death date), but reports are ramping up for sure lately. The auto industry has/is going to be one of the hardest hit by a deep recession, and GM has been dying for the last couple years anyways (2003 bailout?). I remember talking to some people last year about this time when GM would finally be in a grave or merge with Chrystler - a scary prospect for Americans as jobs quickly shift away from the USA from all industry sectors.

I think we also talked about this last April at 5th avenue pizza too.

[Table 5]

Nice little rally today....whether it's a ruse is anobody's guess. I was actually hoping for a bit of a dive today, so i can buy in more.

[missdpuck]

Wow Dow up 964....record for gain in a single day!! Still adjusting after closing.....is around 936. Also GM up 33.7%.

[missdpuck]

Originally Posted by fotze

Wow, my stock that I'm way to heavily invested went up 21%, these market conditions are completely nonsensicle.

Ride 'em cowboy

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by fotze

Wow, my stock that I'm way to heavily invested went up 21%, these market conditions are completely nonsensicle.

One of me stocks went up 32% today. Sadly i was already down 75%, ha.

I'm glad I made the switch into leveraged-index etfs last week, it sure makes me less nervous about this whole market.

[Top Shelf]

wow, TSX was up around +1500 points at one point this morning. Friggin roller coaster ride on the markets

[Finner]

Originally Posted by Finner
Hell, based on technical analysis their should be a rally on tuesday.

Nice...i'm awesome

[tvp2003]

TSX finishes up 890.5 points or 9.63%... Canadian dollar drops again after making a small recovery yesterday

[RougeUnderoos]

And now it sinks 500 points. I guess the coin flip went bad this morning.

[Dion]

Originally Posted by RougeUnderoos

And now it sinks 500 points. I guess the coin flip went bad this morning.

Just some investors selling to make a quick profit. The same ones who bought in after the market crashed. I think it was expected.