40th Canadian Federal Election - Welcome to another Conservative Minority (whee!)

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by kevman

What they should have said was they were going to let the provinces have more control over crime and punishment. Anytime Quebec gets more control they're happy and the idea of allowing Alberta to implement harder punishments would make them happy...everybody wins...

Very true; provincial power has been a point of common ground for Alberta and Quebec for decades, and is one of the reasons that the So-Cred's call for provincial self-determination resonated so strongly in the two provinces.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by the_only_turek_fan

I have two questions that I hope get answered....

1. Harper's excise tax cut on diesel.



Now he cut the tax from 0.04 to 0.02. So anyone that produces diesel in Canada now pays two cents less tax, which means that there expenses come down two cents.

Question is, does it mean that these companies will automatically cut there price down by two cents as well? Cause with out them doing that, I don't see how the tax cut helps consumers? If the two cents in savings is trickled down to the consumer, then its a great thing, but does a tax cut necessarily mean that the company producing diesel will charge two cents less?

Of course they won't... at least not for long. The market value for the product is already set. The companies know what consumers are already willing to pay, and that amount won't change just because they are being taxed less.

Cutting taxes like these never helps the average person. Even the GST cuts are pretty much meaningless to the average person.... but voters fall for them hook, line, and sinker all the time.

The truth is, once a tax on a consumer product is put in place, it rarely makes sense to remove it. The public will just lose the benefit of the tax without seeing any real savings. An income tax break would be more beneficial...

[octothorp]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/s...-platform.html

The election at this point really hangs on the reception to the Tory platform. Personally, I think he's right that restraint is the correct way through the current turmoil. But the problem is that he's not offering anything here that will be a real incentive to give the Conservatives a majority government; with the exception of the crime standards, and backing off his previous plans to change arts funding rules won't really sway voters in Quebec, given that he's already got a bit of a reputation for not living up to past election promises (not that other politicians would do better).

I think the Tories are screwed as far as picking up a bigger percentage of the general vote. They can make a few gains of individual seats, but nowhere near enough to get a majority. They're sort of handicapped in that polls show that they're dead last (well, ahead of the Bloc nationally) in terms of being people's second-choices. Which means that even if they resort to attack ads (and to their credit, they're avoided doing so lately), they'll be more likely to simply drive voters from the Liberals to the NDP, Bloc or Green, while eroding their own support in the process. They need the other parties to start taking shots at one another, and so far that's not really happening.

[CaptainCrunch]

This election is just entirely goofy, and at the end, Harper might as well not have called an election, because I doubt that the minority is going to change.

But personally I'd rather see Harper's plan for the economy instead of the Liberal's entire change which I don't trust, and don't see as a good thing in terms of the economic problems, plus his 5 point plan is a nothing but fluff plan where he holds a bunch of meetings and then spends money. Layton's plan is just stupid in its entirety.

In my next life, I want the job as NDP leader, a job where you can say the outrageous, and never have to worry about results.

[MarchHare]

This election is just entirely goofy, and at the end, Harper might as well not have called an election, because I doubt that the minority is going to change.

I've been saying that since the start of the campaign. Barring any major gaffes, no party is going to gain or lose more than 10-15 seats or so, and we're going to be more or less back to where we started before the election.

As a card-carrying Liberal who doesn't support Dion, I hope to see the Libs lose 10-15 seats to a combination of the NDP, Bloc, and Greens, preserving the weak CPC minority but forcing a party leadership review and hopefully the removal of Dion.

RUMOUR TIME:

My father is a fairly prominent member of the business community in New Brunswick. When Elton John performed in Saint John a few weeks ago, his company hosted several members of the provincial government, including Premier Shawn Graham, in their corporate box at Harbour Station. According to Graham, Frank McKenna is very seriously considering running for the leadership of the federal Liberals should Dion be forced to step down.

So take that for what it's worth. It's only a rumour, of course, but the source is more reliable than Orange Julius Guy.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

I've been saying that since the start of the campaign. Barring any major gaffes, no party is going to gain or lose more than 10-15 seats or so, and we're going to be more or less back to where we started before the election.

As a card-carrying Liberal who doesn't support Dion, I hope to see the Libs lose 10-15 seats to a combination of the NDP, Bloc, and Greens, preserving the weak CPC minority but forcing a party leadership review and hopefully the removal of Dion.

RUMOUR TIME:

My father is a fairly prominent member of the business community in New Brunswick. When Elton John performed in Saint John a few weeks ago, his company hosted several members of the provincial government, including Premier Shawn Graham, in their corporate box at Harbour Station. According to Graham, Frank McKenna is very seriously considering running for the leadership of the federal Liberals should Dion be forced to step down.

So take that for what it's worth. It's only a rumour, of course, but the source is more reliable than Orange Julius Guy.

I have also said the same since the election was called...pure waste of money.

I hope that Gerard Kennedy wins the next Liberal leadership. Well spoken young guy from the west. We can finally stop hearing about how neglected we are out here!

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

My father is a fairly prominent member of the business community in New Brunswick. When Elton John performed in Saint John a few weeks ago, his company hosted several members of the provincial government, including Premier Shawn Graham, in their corporate box at Harbour Station. According to Graham, Frank McKenna is very seriously considering running for the leadership of the federal Liberals should Dion be forced to step down..

Interesting rumour... Personally I'd vote for him: moderate fiscal conservative, social liberal; he'd be my first choice for Liberal leader, ahead of Ignatieff (who's improved in my opinion now that he's spent a bit of time in Federal politics), while Rae would be a distant third.

But I thought he was pretty emphatic about not wanting to return to politics when people were looking to him after Martin stepped down. Not that he can't change his mind.

[the_only_turek_fan]

http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=Pqnic_bvA6k&feature=user

[EddyBeers]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

I've been saying that since the start of the campaign. Barring any major gaffes, no party is going to gain or lose more than 10-15 seats or so, and we're going to be more or less back to where we started before the election.

As a card-carrying Liberal who doesn't support Dion, I hope to see the Libs lose 10-15 seats to a combination of the NDP, Bloc, and Greens, preserving the weak CPC minority but forcing a party leadership review and hopefully the removal of Dion.

RUMOUR TIME:

My father is a fairly prominent member of the business community in New Brunswick. When Elton John performed in Saint John a few weeks ago, his company hosted several members of the provincial government, including Premier Shawn Graham, in their corporate box at Harbour Station. According to Graham, Frank McKenna is very seriously considering running for the leadership of the federal Liberals should Dion be forced to step down.

So take that for what it's worth. It's only a rumour, of course, but the source is more reliable than Orange Julius Guy.

A more interesting question is who replaces Harper after the election.

Latest Nanos has it 34-31

Latest Decima has it 31-26

I would say that their polling theme song is "Sinking Like a Sunset" by Tom Cochrane, but I know how much Harper appreciates Canadian culture, it is more likely "Free Falling" by Tom Petty....

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by EddyBeers

A more interesting question is who replaces Harper after the election.

Latest Nanos has it 34-31

Latest Decima has it 31-26

I would say that their polling theme song is "Sinking Like a Sunset" by Tom Cochrane, but I know how much Harper appreciates Canadian culture, it is more likely "Free Falling" by Tom Petty....

That is an interesting question; I don't think there's any way that the Conservatives lose this election, but that doesn't mean that the Conservatives shouldn't consider a leadership review. The only PM to have two consecutive minority governments stepped down before the next election. I'd put it to the Conservative supporters on this board: how many seats does Harper need to win to secure his job for another full term? 110? 130? 154? Would anyone within the party vocally call for him to step down while he's still PM?

[Bobblehead]

And Harper promises to re-introduce the very unpopular copyright legislation:

A re-elected Conservative Government led by Stephen Harper will reintroduce federal
copyright legislation that strikes the appropriate balance among the rights of musicians,
artists, programmers and other creators and brings Canada's intellectual property
protection in line with that of other industrialized countries, but also protects consumers
who want to access copyright works for their personal use.
We will also introduce tougher laws on counterfeiting and piracy and give our customs
and law enforcement services the resources to enforce them. This will protect
consumers from phoney and sometimes dangerous products that are passed off as
reliable brand-name goods.

"The True North Strong and Free" Conservative policy statement. p14

[Devils'Advocate]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

That said, why in the hell would the Conservatives lose support with a policy of getting tough on crime? I mean, I know Montreallers love their riots, but that is a very odd thing for Quebec to bail on.

I'm starting to find this thread getting to unwieldy that questions are being asked that have already been addressed.

Quebecers are more accepting of Duceppe's talk of rehabilitation and counseling. This was quite well addressed in the french debate - Duceppe is not willing to give up on these kids. If a 14 year old does commit attempted murder, Duceppe says that putting the kid behind bars for 20 years is not likely to rehabilitate the child, but rather ensure the person will likely reoffend. That view is resonating with the people of Quebec. Albertans will of course disagree with that point of view, but that is just it. Harper put forth a plank of his platform that he knew would help him in Alberta, but he wasn't expecting it to hurt in Quebec. As it turns out, this is really backfiring as Albertans would have voted for him even if it was Harper proposing the Green Shift - he didn't need to go touting this plank. But now the Conservatives are flirting with third in Quebec.

The same goes for artist funding. Really, it's absolute peanuts. Cutting back on "wasteful" spending like on art funding will get a nod from the West... but it is slamming them hard in Quebec, particularly with the ads from Beau Dommage. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uhgv85m852Q

[redmile04]

Originally Posted by North East Goon

I am voting for Roger Richard because he is the better candidate, not because his sign is similiar. Richard has been a long time Conservative member of North East Calgary. He is now being backed by Perry Cavanaugh to win this area. They have un-covered numerous items on how Devinder Shory broke rules and regulations to get the Progressive Conservative nod. This isnt new to this area because Kang did the same for his MLA appointment.

Cavanaugh is probably just jealous he lost to Shory. If he is such a great candidate and if he is so sure that Shory broke all these rules then why would he try to con the people. He has lost my vote for sure.

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

Originally Posted by Devils'Advocate

I'm starting to find this thread getting to unwieldy that questions are being asked that have already been addressed.

Quebecers are more accepting of Duceppe's talk of rehabilitation and counseling. This was quite well addressed in the french debate - Duceppe is not willing to give up on these kids. If a 14 year old does commit attempted murder, Duceppe says that putting the kid behind bars for 20 years is not likely to rehabilitate the child, but rather ensure the person will likely reoffend. That view is resonating with the people of Quebec. Albertans will of course disagree with that point of view, but that is just it. Harper put forth a plank of his platform that he knew would help him in Alberta, but he wasn't expecting it to hurt in Quebec. As it turns out, this is really backfiring as Albertans would have voted for him even if it was Harper proposing the Green Shift - he didn't need to go touting this plank. But now the Conservatives are flirting with third in Quebec.

The same goes for artist funding. Really, it's absolute peanuts. Cutting back on "wasteful" spending like on art funding will get a nod from the West... but it is slamming them hard in Quebec, particularly with the ads from Beau Dommage. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uhgv85m852Q

I think some of that is just BQ rhetoric. Harper could say the sky is blue and Duceppe would point out this proves he does not get Quebecers because it is clearly bleu

'the people' of Quebec are no more homogenous then the people of Alberta. Very few who may have voted conservative would be swayed by either issue.

Harpers getting pummelled for a wishy washy platform and a rough economy. Maybe rightly so.

[mrdeeds]

Originally Posted by octothorp

I'd put it to the Conservative supporters on this board: how many seats does Harper need to win to secure his job for another full term? 110? 130? 154? Would anyone within the party vocally call for him to step down while he's still PM?

Very good question. I think there will be some Eastern discontent in the party should the Convervatives fail to win a majority and calls for a leader that does not call Alberta home.

[Devils'Advocate]

Originally Posted by Bend it like Bourgeois

'the people' of Quebec are no more homogenous then the people of Alberta. Very few who may have voted conservative would be swayed by either issue.

I think the people of Alberta are far more homogenous than anywhere else in the country. I wager that on October 14th that no province will be as homogenous as Alberta. So I'll agree that Quebec is less.

But I must disagree as whether they would be swayed. The voters in Quebec are still quite upset at the Liberals over the sponsorship scandal - but not for the same reason Albertans or Ontarians are... it was Quebec politicians that made out like bandits and gave Quebec a bad name. Again. So they parked their protest vote with the Conservatives even though they didn't agree 100% with their platform. So long as they didn't rock the boat too much, Quebec was more than happy to use the Conservative party to teach the Liberals a lesson while not giving more power to the Bloc. However, when issues like cutting funding to artists and throwing 14 year olds in jail those non-Conservative Conservative votes dry up.

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

Originally Posted by Devils'Advocate

So long as they didn't rock the boat too much, Quebec was more than happy to use the Conservative party to teach the Liberals a lesson while not giving more power to the Bloc. However, when issues like cutting funding to artists and throwing 14 year olds in jail those non-Conservative Conservative votes dry up.

I won't argue the concept, just not sure how many people fit into this category. Maybe it's more than I think.

Certainly if Harper thought that kind of soft support would stick with him he's an idiot.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Devils'Advocate

I think the people of Alberta are far more homogenous than anywhere else in the country. I wager that on October 14th that no province will be as homogenous as Alberta. So I'll agree that Quebec is less.

But I must disagree as whether they would be swayed. The voters in Quebec are still quite upset at the Liberals over the sponsorship scandal - but not for the same reason Albertans or Ontarians are... it was Quebec politicians that made out like bandits and gave Quebec a bad name. Again. So they parked their protest vote with the Conservatives even though they didn't agree 100% with their platform. So long as they didn't rock the boat too much, Quebec was more than happy to use the Conservative party to teach the Liberals a lesson while not giving more power to the Bloc. However, when issues like cutting funding to artists and throwing 14 year olds in jail those non-Conservative Conservative votes dry up.

I don't really think that people in Alberta are that homogenous...but the distorted results of the election system make it appear that way. Same as what took place in Ontario in the 90's when Chretien virtually swept.

[Incinerator]

Originally Posted by octothorp

That is an interesting question; I don't think there's any way that the Conservatives lose this election, but that doesn't mean that the Conservatives shouldn't consider a leadership review. The only PM to have two consecutive minority governments stepped down before the next election. I'd put it to the Conservative supporters on this board: how many seats does Harper need to win to secure his job for another full term? 110? 130? 154? Would anyone within the party vocally call for him to step down while he's still PM?

I wouldn't be surprised at all actually...Personally I liked Peter MacKay more even back in the merger days...I have no doubt we would be under a Conservative majority right now if he was the one running the ship.

The problem with Sweater Steve has always been personality, he's a great leader & he means well, but he just can't wipe that awkward devil eye grin off his face when he tries wayyy too hard. That's the major thing that turns off a lot of voters on the edge I think.

I think anything short of a majority this time would likely trigger a leadership review sometime next year. As for Harper being able to finish his full term, that'd largely depend on the Liberal leadership review, i.e. when is Dion getting the boot from his own party. As soon as a competent leader is chosen for the Grits, Harper's minority would be toast.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by mrdeeds

Very good question. I think there will be some Eastern discontent in the party should the Convervatives fail to win a majority and calls for a leader that does not call Alberta home.

To win a majority, the CPC doesn't need a non-Albertan leader, but they do need a leader whose political roots aren't from the Reform/Alliance parties. For many in Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic Provinces, the CPC is just a re-branded Reform Party, which, as we all know, was a Western protest party. It's not much of a stretch to call the Reform Party the Western Canadian equivalent of the Bloc Quebecois (minus the sovereignty aspirations).

So it shouldn't be any surprise that non-Westerners still don't feel comfortable voting for the CPC while the bulk of the party leadership are old-guard Reformers. It has absolutely nothing to do with Harper's province of residence and everything to do with Harper's past political affiliations. When Joe Clark (who represented the riding of Calgary Centre) was leader of the PCs in the 2000 election, his party had no trouble attracting supporters East of Manitoba despite having an Alberta-based leader.