40th Canadian Federal Election - Welcome to another Conservative Minority (whee!)

[Ronald Pagan]

Love to see Lunn gone. Slime ball.

[Nehkara]

The NDP and Green party are showing increases in support while the Tories hold steady and the Liberals face declining support as the campaign marches on.

Right now it breaks down approximately like this:

36% Conservative
24% Liberal
19% NDP
10% Bloc
10% Green


Source: Wikipedia

[Devils'Advocate]

Good speech by Dion this morning. I guess he's trying to shed his "wimpy" image.

I don't remember the exact words, but it was along the lines of:
"South of the border we see two men with different views on a war in the middle east. Neither has called the other 'pro-Taliban'. We also see two men with differing views on which way to take the economy. Neither has called the other 'cheering for a recession'. ...."

He went on... and the whole crux of the matter was that Harper has shown that he doesn't have the class that Obama or McCain have shown when speaking. I mean, the Republican bloggers have no problem saying that Obama is pro-Al-Queda, but you would never ever hear that from John McCain.

Unfortunately, I think it has been repeatedly documented that nice guys finish last. Maybe if John McCain did say that Obama was pro-Al-Queda he might win his election.

[octothorp]

A bit more poll coverage, and it's mostly bad news for the big parties:

For the Conservatives, three of the four main pollsters are showing them trending down significantly nationally. It's now looking like they'll come in around 36%, about where they were last time around. Province by province, they're down in BC (below 2006 levels), down in the prairies, back to 2006 levels in Ontario and Quebec. The good news is that they're way up in Atlantic Canada.

For the Liberals, the bad news is that despite the Conservatives declining in most regions of the country, the Liberals are polling at or below 2006 levels in every region, and way below 2006 levels in the maritimes.

The other story is that the Bloc have really made gains in the last few days; they had looked ready for a big drop a week ago, but now it looks like they may be able to hold onto most of their seats.

So it looks more than ever like we're heading toward something a lot like the last government. Probably a few more Tory seats, and a few more possibilities for what coalitions will work for the Tories to pass bills, but still well short of a majority.

I look forward to seeing the stats on TV viewership on Thursday night: will more Canadians tune into our own federal debate, or Palin vs. Biden?

[arsenal]

Originally Posted by octothorp

I look forward to seeing the stats on TV viewership on Thursday night: will more Canadians tune into our own federal debate, or Palin vs. Biden?

I agree. I personally will probably watch Palin vs Biden before I watch the Canadian debate. I imagine the US VP debate will be a lot more entertaining.

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by arsenal

I agree. I personally will probably watch Palin vs Biden before I watch the Canadian debate. I imagine the US VP debate will be a lot more entertaining.

I might be in the minority, but I expect Palin to be passable on Thursday. I think the Republicans are using every trick they know, and burning the midnight oil to have her come across as decent as possible. Tons of canned answers that don't actually answer questions, but are coherent enough to avoid disaster. She won't win by a long shot, but for the McCain camp... her not sinking the ship will be considered a win.

However, the Canadian debate should be a treat. A 4-way socialism contest, with each of the left parties (sorry Liberals, but with Dion, and Bob Rae as his lieutenant, you're not centrist right now) competing to see who can spend the country dry and cripple the economy the fastest. All Harper has to do is not get sucked into the mudslinging, and sell himself as the only alternative to come out of the economic downturn relatively undamaged, while holding in condescention, devil-horns, and laughter. I expect some downright nutty comments from May and Layton, which are always good for a few laughs. Duceppe will struggle valiantly as usual to explain why a separatist party is relevant on the national level when the country is federalist (and therefore a provincial issue). Dion won't have the luxury of Ignatieff and Rae explaining his incoherence, so he should have some fun comments too.

[Slava]

^ I won't watch either debate this year, but I have to disagree on one point with you Thunderball. Duceppe has been the best in the debate for the past few elections in my opinion.

Granted the relevancy of a separtist party is a major point, but he has certainly made the most sense on an issue by issue basis.

[CaptainCrunch]

Of course I'm going to watch the American debate, Palin might not be a great choice as a VP, but man to me she's just a fantasy come true for anyone who's totally in love with Tina Fey.

But I think the 5 party debate is going to be a source of pure comedy here. Layton is going to get strung up on his economically silly platform, Dion is just going to get killed especially on his carbon tax while giving a billion dollars to manufacturing sectors in Ontario. Ducceppe (sp?) is always fun to watch because he's not worried about winning. May is probably not going to go after Dion but she's going to get slaughtered for being insane. All Harper has to do at the moment is not do or say anything stupid and let the other four shred each other.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Slava

^ I won't watch either debate this year, but I have to disagree on one point with you Thunderball. Duceppe has been the best in the debate for the past few elections in my opinion.

Granted the relevancy of a separtist party is a major point, but he has certainly made the most sense on an issue by issue basis.

I've always said that it was a shame that Duceppe wasn't running a true national party, because I would almost vote for him.

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by Slava

^ I won't watch either debate this year, but I have to disagree on one point with you Thunderball. Duceppe has been the best in the debate for the past few elections in my opinion.

Granted the relevancy of a separtist party is a major point, but he has certainly made the most sense on an issue by issue basis.

Maybe I should rephrase that... I like Duceppe (even though he's pretty leftist). He's a great debater in either language. I just mean, the idea of a separatist party on the federal level is nonsensical. Its a provincially-based issue, which only becomes federal if the province forces another referendum, which isn't coming anytime soon.

Its not Duceppe himself fighting for relevancy, its his party.

[Cheese]

a stupid question Im sure, but why not flog it?

Why would Canadians tune into an AMERICAN VP debate vs their own Political debate? Sounds an awful lot like apathy to me. I personally could give a about the US and its politics...regardless of who is on the podium.

[FurnaceFace]

I agree with Slava. If Duceppe was say the Liberal leader, Harper would actually have a fight on his hands. Duceppe seems to have some logic to his banter.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by arsenal

I agree. I personally will probably watch Palin vs Biden before I watch the Canadian debate. I imagine the US VP debate will be a lot more entertaining.

Yeah, I'll probably end up flipping between the two. If Palin isn't a train wreck, I'll probably watch more of the Canadian debate. Although many Canadian pundits have talked about the echo effect of Canadian political sentiment echoing political sentiment in the US. Perhaps the republican downturn in the US late last week is responsible for the Tory downturn here in recent polls, and if so, it would be a worst case for the Tories if Canadian viewers turned in to an American conservative screwing up, rather than seeing Harper's almost certainly competent-to-strong performance.

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by Cheese

a stupid question Im sure, but why not flog it?

Why would Canadians tune into an AMERICAN VP debate vs their own Political debate? Sounds an awful lot like apathy to me. I personally could give a about the US and its politics...regardless of who is on the podium.

Its not a stupid question.

I think there's three reasons. One, people expect Palin to make a total ass of herself, which she assuredly has the potential to do. Entertainment over substance. Two, the politics of the US have a huge ripple effect on the world, and particularly, to Canada. Especially when we're mentioned (negatively or positively) with things like NAFTA, Oilsands, etc. Three, Canada's electoral debate has two non-entities that have zero chance of forming government, and one party who's only chance of any sway is to get in bed (again) with the Liberals. The messages of the two "governing" parties gets washed out by these three fringe parties. Too cluttered for many people to care about.

[North East Goon]

Originally Posted by Dan02

Not sure if this is the same guy who, but i saw some "independent" conservative who basically made their yard signs almost identical to the conservatives in a blatant attempt to con people into voting for him. Not sure why anyone would choose to vote for a con artist like that.



ahh yes it is him, obviously he's trying to pass himself off as the CPC candidate. conservative in super big bold letters, independant in teeny tiny no way you would notice them as you're driving by letters.

I am voting for Roger Richard because he is the better candidate, not because his sign is similiar. Richard has been a long time Conservative member of North East Calgary. He is now being backed by Perry Cavanaugh to win this area. They have un-covered numerous items on how Devinder Shory broke rules and regulations to get the Progressive Conservative nod. This isnt new to this area because Kang did the same for his MLA appointment.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Slava

^ I won't watch either debate this year, but I have to disagree on one point with you Thunderball. Duceppe has been the best in the debate for the past few elections in my opinion.

Granted the relevancy of a separtist party is a major point, but he has certainly made the most sense on an issue by issue basis.

I can agree with this comment. I think that in the English language debate Duceppe is under no pressure to land punches or to defend against punches and his relaxed demenour makes his answers to questions more fluent and coherent. It's like going to a job interview after already accepting another position. Since you don't care, you actually answer the questions better.

[Resolute 14]

So where the hell are the campaign signs and, for that matter, the campaigns?

Thus far, neither the Liberals nor the NDP appear to be making any kind of effort to let voters know they exist. No signs, no literature, no door-to-door knocking. Nothing. You gotta at least try, guys...

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

So where the hell are the campaign signs and, for that matter, the campaigns?

Thus far, neither the Liberals nor the NDP appear to be making any kind of effort to let voters know they exist. No signs, no literature, no door-to-door knocking. Nothing. You gotta at least try, guys...

I think the big kicker here in Calgary is the fact that the Liberal party is in serious financial trouble and literally can't afford to put up a lot of signs or wage a decent ground fight in such an area of the country with such little vote prospects. Likewise for the NDP, if they're going to userp the Liberals for official opposition they will have to win battleground ridings. None of which are in Calgary. I also think the NDP, to their credit don't want to waste election money supporting the campaigns of amateur-hour candidates half of which are Students or recent graduates looking to add 2008 Federal Election campaign to their resumes.

[arsenal]

Originally Posted by Cheese

a stupid question Im sure, but why not flog it?

Why would Canadians tune into an AMERICAN VP debate vs their own Political debate? Sounds an awful lot like apathy to me. I personally could give a about the US and its politics...regardless of who is on the podium.

Personally for me, with the canadian debate, there are too many people involved. I have seen a few debates in the past, and it just turns into 5 or 6 people bickering over some issue, with no real message being brought forward.

Plus, I already know whom I am voting for, so watching the canadian debate for me means nothing.

[calculoso]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

So where the hell are the campaign signs and, for that matter, the campaigns?

Thus far, neither the Liberals nor the NDP appear to be making any kind of effort to let voters know they exist. No signs, no literature, no door-to-door knocking. Nothing. You gotta at least try, guys...

It looks to me like they are targeting their funds to where they think they have a chance. My riding (Anders) has a lot of Liberal signs for their candidate (including a picture of her). Other areas appear to have little if any Liberal presence.

The NDP is a different story. It's all about Jack Layton's team - no mention of the actual candidate.