40th Canadian Federal Election - Welcome to another Conservative Minority (whee!)

[peter12]

Here's a provincial poll tracker on CTV's website, but the samples are so small as to be meaningless.

http://www.ctv.ca/mini/election2008/polltracker.html

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

I just got my absentee ballot in the mail. Now comes the hard part. I've voted Liberal all my life, but I don't know much about the candidates in Calgary Center.... and I really do think Harper's done a decent job. Not that my vote matters in the grand scheme, but I like to vote my conscience. Can I bring myself to vote Conservative? Yuck.

Maybe I'll vote NDP.

[Cube Inmate]

I find it hard to make head or tail of polls and other media reports on this topic...

Polls have confidence values associated, which I understand. Effectively, they mean that by interviewing 1000 (or thereabouts) people, their results would be within 3.1% points of what they would be if they polled all 23 million voters (19 times out of every 20 polls...statistically, one poll would have a larger margin than that).

There's an unstated variable, though, and that's the likelihood of the respondents to change their votes...either the truly "undecided" voter, or the "I'm decided but a good campaign ad could change my mind" type. Some fraction will have a 0% chance of changing, so that's your base value for every poll. The remainder is the "soft support" that's liable to change based on good ads, major gaffes, or great debate performances.

Any guesses as to how much support falls into each category? At present, I'd guess that poll results break down something like this, among probable voters outside of Quebec...

20% Definite Conservative
15% Definite Liberal
10% Definite NDP
2% Definite Green
------------------
47% of the total is pretty solid?

15% Soft Conservative ... Currently supporting Con and would never support NDP, but remains open to supporting Libs / Greens if they get spooked by something during the campaign.

10% Soft Liberal ... Currently reporting Liberal, but remains open to voting Con if they think they're likely to elect a Con MP into a Con government. They only change, though if the Cons can avoid spooking them.

20% Soft Left-wing ... Lib/NDP/Green. Would never vote Con, and will likely go into conniptions if a Con majority gets elected.

8% Swing-in-the-wind ... the kind who doesn't have a clue how the NDP and Con platforms differ, and will simply vote based on which one looks best on his/her campaign posters.
-----------------------------
53% Soft support?

So, am I close, or way off-base with these guesses? Does anybody have actual numbers to back these up or refute them?

[Slava]

I think that you're guesses are pretty close here^. I'm not sure how many "actual numbers" would even exist for this, but I think that you're right! None of the polls measure how many people are solidified in their votes, and really it would be like trying to predict the future anyway, so its pretty tough to gauge.

I agree with Andrew Coyne on the debate though. He said last night on CBC that we need to take the power away from the broadcasters (i.e. private corporations) and set up some legitimate rules. As it stands the english debate (I personally cannot believe there is a mere one, where likely a few ought to be held) is aired at the same time as the VP debate in the US.

Also, no matter which side of the debate you personally fall on, you have to admit its ridiculous that the decision to include a political party in the debates is left in the hands of the broadcasters? Seems like something that should be set up by Elections Canada and subject to a straight set of rules (minimum vote percentage or seats won, or whatever).

[ernie]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Just reading some of the panic filled comments after the article is good for a laugh.

After nearly a week of what my mind has been a pretty bad campaign by the Conservatives for the polls to shift like this tells me that Dions message isn't resonating at all.

As many expected it to be the Green Shift is quite complex to explain. With the sound bite world we live in the explanations will never come out the way the liberals want unless they are very lucky. It doesn't help that Dion does have tremendous trouble getting his point across when speaking english for even the simplest concepts. That isn't a shot at Francophones just the truth. It also doesn't help that he seemingly has less personality than Harper and gives an even more boring speech.

From talking to people they feel the Liberal Green Shift can be summed up as:

1) so you want to tax everybody's gas, heat, and electricity which will inevitably cost me more to go to work and the price of everything will go up.

2) Mr. Dion you say it will be revenue neutral that it won't affect my pocketbook because I'll get an income tax break yet you have not cost the program out, the proposal seems to change on a daily basis with things added or removed or tweaked in an attempt to get votes, and if it won't affect my pocketbook how the heck is it going to work to get people to reduce pollution?

It's an uphill battle for the Liberals with the Green Shift. Mike Duffy the other night suggested to a Liberal spokesperson that it might be time to put it on the back burner and look at it if the Liberals form a government. That spokesperson essentially said that is what they will campaign on. I wonder if this latest poll and the lack of traction they have had this first week might cause them to shift gears after all.

IN short people don't understand the Green Shoft. Many of his own candidates don't understand it. And Dion can't seem to explain it.

[jolinar of malkshor]

Latest Proposal for Immigration Change by the Liberals

• A fast-track program for international students and live-in caregivers wanting permanent residency.
• A special “Welcome Canada” multiple entry visa, good for five years and renewable, to help families visit their Canadian immigrant relatives.
• $200 million to encourage foreign-born professionals to upgrade their existing credentials, or take the courses necessary to have qualifications recognized here.
• Encouragement for provinces and cities who need skills and labour to have immigrants settle there, outside of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver.
• A special business visa called the Canadian Express Pass for frequent business visitors.

Point 1.) I have no problem with this change. It only makes sense that if we are going to train people in our schools we should make it easy for them to remain in Canada as a permanent resident. Having said that, I don't think it should be a carte blanche approach where all students have this fast tracked approach. Students in fields that we are in high demand for, sure, ESL students, no.

Point 2.) I only agree with this IF they make provisions where the person coming to visit has valid medical coverage for the entire duration of the stay in Canada AND the person would be inelgible to obtain social assistance or make a claim for refugee protection.

Point 3.) Need more detail on this proposal. $200 million to encourage? What does that mean. If it means that they will pay for their schooling then no. They can pay for any upgrades just like the rest of the people that go to school in Canada.

Point 4.) Sure, but it is ultimately up to the individual where they want to live. I am sure most provinces want immigrants to live where the jobs are. Doesn't seem like anything is really relevant from this point.

Point 5.) Special business VISA? They already have multiple entry work permit exempt VISA's not to mention CANPASS and NEXUS. This just sounds again like something that they just want to throw out there to make themselves look good.

The biggest thing that I disagree with about their policy is this following statement

A Liberal government, Dion said, would reverse those changes, including removing the discretionary power of the minister of immigration to fast track some categories of immigrant over others.

One of the reasons our system is so backlogged is because many people keep re-applying after they have been refused and the old system required that application to be looked at in order not looked at due to relevance. Why shouldn't out immigration policy be designed so that we can approve the people WE NEED. WE NEED skilled workers, they should be first priority. Not family re-unification or visitor applications or previously refused applications.

[CaptainCrunch]

Is Danny Williams taking things to far in his hatred at Harper.

Campaigning against the Conservatives is one thing, intimidating business owners and campaign workers is others

http://watch.ctv.ca/news/election-20...-nl/#clip92376

[Resolute 14]

So what is Williams' problem then? Is he one of those clowns who cant put the old PC vs. Reform schizm behind him?

[EddyBeers]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

So what is Williams' problem then? Is he one of those clowns who cant put the old PC vs. Reform schizm behind him?

He dislikes Harper because Harper lied to him, promised him he would not touch the Atlantic Accord last election and then went and did the exact oppposite once he was elected.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by EddyBeers

He dislikes Harper because Harper lied to him, promised him he would not touch the Atlantic Accord last election and then went and did the exact oppposite once he was elected.

What?? Stephen Harper stated something explicitly and then did the exact opposite when he got in? He surely won't do that this time....

[Devils'Advocate]

What has Williams most up in arms is that Harper said that he was going to clean up government and make it accountable. It was going to stand by its promises and restore faith in our federal institutions.

From a Williams attack ad, quoting Conservative pamphlets used in Newfoundland:
"A promise made should be a promise kept. And as Mr. Harper pointed out, there is no greater fraud than a promise not kept."

It's obvious that Harper lied. He does nothing BUT lie. And Williams is calling him on it.

As for the "threats" the Newfoundlander Conservatives claim is taking place, all those allegations are about illegal activities. If they are taking place, I certainly expect the police to be looking into these allegations.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Slava

What?? Stephen Harper stated something explicitly and then did the exact opposite when he got in? He surely won't do that this time....

Wow, a politician that lies.

Amazing!

[4X4]

Originally Posted by EddyBeers

He dislikes Harper because Harper lied to him, promised him he would not touch the Atlantic Accord last election and then went and did the exact oppposite once he was elected.

A politician that hates another politician for being a politician.

[4X4]

Originally Posted by Devils'Advocate

It's obvious that Harper lied. He does nothing BUT lie. And Williams is calling him on it.

FTR, I just joined this thread on this page (I'm a 50 posts per page guy), so if you're already elaborated on this, please just post a link to where you've done so. If you haven't, I'd dearly love to hear about all these lies you're talking about.

[jolinar of malkshor]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Is Danny Williams taking things to far in his hatred at Harper.

Campaigning against the Conservatives is one thing, intimidating business owners and campaign workers is others

http://watch.ctv.ca/news/election-20...-nl/#clip92376

Danny Williams has a right to be mad. A promise was made and then broken. But he has gone WAAAAYYYYY to far in what he is doing. It has become SOOOOO personal to him that he is acting like a mad man.

It's one thing to address the people of NFL about his concerns and disappointment with Harper. It's another thing to act the way he is acting. Promoting an ABC campaign. (anyone but conservatives).

Does he realize what will happen to all his oil money if the NDP or the liberals get in?

[jolinar of malkshor]

Originally Posted by Devils'Advocate

It's obvious that Harper lied. He does nothing BUT lie. And Williams is calling him on it.

WTF is this about. You think anyone will take anything you have to say serious now about the election? Because what you just said is absolutly so true isn't it?

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by jolinar of malkshor

WTF is this about. You think anyone will take anything you have to say serious now about the election? Because what you just said is absolutly so true isn't it?

Hey, if it is on the internets it must be true.

[Devils'Advocate]

Harper promised in the last election:
- He promised an end to political patronage and then appointed his good pal and campaign co-chair to a pork barrel job of minister of Public Works
- He said he would honour the Kelowna accord to improve education and health care for aboriginals. Then they canceled the budget for its implementation.
- He promised to do away with the gun registry. It's still there.
- Harper put in law fixed election dates and then breaks his own law to have this election. He said the reason he wanted fixed election dates was because historically parties would call elections whenever they were politically convenient for the party in power. And that was done in this instance.

I can keep going on, but I have to get ready for work. But suffice to say, Harpers litany of lies and broken promises rivals anything that the Liberals ever did. But what scares me the most in the ironically named "Accountability Act" which allows for more government secrecy and contradicts his campaign policy of more government transparency and accountability. How much more corruption there is within the government may well be hidden from the public because the Conservatives have made it near impossible for things like the sponsorship scandal to be discovered.

So Danny Williams shouldn't be surprised he was lied to. From what I've seen Harper is just like every other prime minister of the last 20 years - you can tell they are lying because their lips are moving.

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by jolinar of malkshor

Danny Williams has a right to be mad. A promise was made and then broken. But he has gone WAAAAYYYYY to far in what he is doing. It has become SOOOOO personal to him that he is acting like a mad man.

It's one thing to address the people of NFL about his concerns and disappointment with Harper. It's another thing to act the way he is acting. Promoting an ABC campaign. (anyone but conservatives).

Does he realize what will happen to all his oil money if the NDP or the liberals get in?

Exactly... its not like there's a fiscally conservative liberal candidate waiting in the wings here for disinchanted conservatives to park their vote with right now... Williams is recklessly telling people to vote for a left-wing candidate who will have absolutely no qualms with destroying his golden goose because its a big polluter. The oilsands are in vogue to slam, but offshore is always slammed by environmentalists.

I know he's disappointed right now, but its very tough for Harper to do things with a minority government that are so different than the mindset of the other parties (ie: remove gun registry).

PS: DevilsAdvocate, you are aware that the fixed election date law is only applicable to majority governments. A Minority can't be held to the same standard because the opposition can topple it whenever they choose. If elections can only be held once every four years, that would mean opposition parties could not topple the government in a minority situation. An annoying loophole, but a useable one.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Devils'Advocate

But suffice to say, Harpers litany of lies and broken promises rivals anything that the Liberals ever did.