The Blue Jays Thread: 2008 Season

[JayP]

Originally Posted by I_H8_Crawford

The Jays' run looks a lot similar to the Oilers' run at the end of the season last year.

If they keep a similar team into next year, they probably wont do as well and will miss the playoffs again, IMO.

I'd say there's some pretty distinct differences.

The Oilers are their worst were a bottom feeder. As late as well into January (I believe) they were still 14th in the West. The Jays, on the other hand, have been consistently one of those middle of the pack teams, always on the fringe of the wild card race.

The big thing is that most stats say that the Blue Jays should be a better team than their record indicates. The Jays are third in the league in run differential yet sit 11 overall in the MLB, 6th in the AL. Run differential is one of, if not the, best predictors of success.

Most baseball websites have some sort of adjusted standings. Even after this run, the Jays are sitting at 79-67 while websites predict them to be at 85-61 (ESPN, ahead of the Rays) and 82-64 (Baseball Prospectus, slightly behind the Rays). They've been below their expected record the entire season. This says to me that this run isn't really a fluke - it's a matter of 3/4 of one season being a small sample size and those one-run losses and inability to get clutch hits evening themselves out some.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by moon

I agree they are not great stats but they are the stats that most baseball fans use/are familiar with so quoting OPS really isn't worthwhile most of the time.

Edit: I would love if people ignored stats like RBI's as it would mean Pujols would have the MVP he deserved last year and wouldn't have to put up with crap like perhaps Delgado, Howard or Berkman should win the MVP this year.

It's funny because there's some talk that Delgado should be in the MVP race for hitting a couple bombs in August/September. Guys with .864 OPS's should never be considered for the MVP.

My issue with Rios, and other Jays players, is that they are not good enough hitters that a .820 OPS can been seen as a surprise.

I think he certainly could have .875 OPS at some point but what he has shown to me is that he is not a good enough hitter that he should be expected to consistently put up high OPS, average, slg, HR or RBI numbers.

Like other players of his ability and below there are going to be seasons that are going to be worse than others and it isn't because they are in a slump or having an off year it is because they are not good enough to consistently put up very good to excellent numbers.

Well the thing about Rios is that his numbers this year are dragged down by one disasterous month.

April - .835
May - .585
June - .821
July - .800
August - .884
September - 1.328

Obviously every month is important, but most years Rios isn't going to anything close to a month like that and his OPS is very likely in the .860 range without it.

[flambers]

Another big difference is the quality of teams that the Jays are playing.... the streak happened against quality teams not bottom feeders....

For example.

Swept the Twins
Swept the Rays
Won three out of four from the White Sox

Jays schedule is really tough in September and they still have found a way to win games....

[flambers]

As for Rios, as others have mentioned a person has to look at all of his stats not just the HRs or RBIs.

For example

Doubles - Rios is 5th in the league with 44
Triples - Rios is tied for 7th in the league with 8
Hits - Rios is 5th in the league with 174
SB - Rios is tied for 15th in the league with 30

[Jiggy_12]

For the first time in...well, since the early 90's, the Blue Jays have a meaningful series in mid-september. Long-shot or not, at least it should be some intense ball.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by flambers

As for Rios, as others have mentioned a person has to look at all of his stats not just the HRs or RBIs.

For example

Doubles - Rios is 5th in the league with 44
Triples - Rios is tied for 7th in the league with 8
Hits - Rios is 5th in the league with 174
SB - Rios is tied for 15th in the league with 30

But really most of those would show in his On Base/Slugging combination. I see Rios and I honestly feel that he's best suited to hit at the top of the batting order given the type of hitter he is, and the way he tends to hit with guys on base. If he's a 900 OPS guy in the lead off spot, and only a 800 guy because he tenses up with runners on base, than play to his strength. Really is a lead off guy with Rios' speed and ability to get extra base hits that bad? I mean runner on 2nd and none out, you should get him home. Why hit him down in the order because you think he should drive in runs when it's not what he does best. He get's a lot of hits, and he's got a lot of ways to get himself into scoring position, to me that's not such a bad thing to have at the top of your batting order.

[OzSome]

In order to make to pass Red Sox on the Wild Card race, they will have to beat them 4 times this weekend and keep on winning the rest of their game while the Red Sox starts losing.

It's too bad JP did not get rid of Gibbons a long time ago. Anyways good luck on the Jays!

[JayP]

Any Jays game vs. Wakefield is painful to watch. How can the entire team be incapable of hitting the knuckleball every single season?

[Flickered Flame]

Nice to see former Jay catcher Kevin Cash hit a HR tonight.

[SportsJunky]

Burnett looks good today. Jays up 8-0 through 6. The kid, Snider, has 5 RBI so far.

[OzSome]

Originally Posted by JayP

Any Jays game vs. Wakefield is painful to watch. How can the entire team be incapable of hitting the knuckleball every single season?

It is just painful to watch someone like Tim Wakefield still playing in the MLB PERIOD!!. I cannot stand someone who is only one arsenal and to top it off it is knuckleball. He is by far my least favorite pitcher.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by OzSome

It is just painful to watch someone like Tim Wakefield still playing in the MLB PERIOD!!. I cannot stand someone who is only one arsenal and to top it off it is knuckleball. He is by far my least favorite pitcher.

Really? I love knucklers - always makes for an interesting game when you have a knuckler on the mound.

[Sylvanfan]

You can't truly appreciate the knuckleball until you try to catch a guy throwing them. That thing darts all over the place just about the time it gets to the plate. As a catcher....thats your biggest fear is the batter misses it and you have to try and stop it. Your hand hurts like hell from all the off center catches you made or almost made after the game.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

You can't truly appreciate the knuckleball until you try to catch a guy throwing them. That thing darts all over the place just about the time it gets to the plate. As a catcher....thats your biggest fear is the batter misses it and you have to try and stop it. Your hand hurts like hell from all the off center catches you made or almost made after the game.

Yah I like the Knucklers as well, however they must drive the hitters nuts.... It was interesting to see the Jays did not place Lind or Snider in the line up against the Knuckler....

[Machiavelli]

Crushing loss tonight that basically does it for the already meager playoff hopes.

[flambers]

It was a great run, I personally thought they had no chance..... However its still nice to see the Jays play really solid...

As for Scott Downs, he has not looked the same since he hurt his ankle.. I am guessing he is injured...

[OzSome]

The Jays teased the fans again by going hot late in the season then when the game really counts (against the Red Sox), they choke. After the brutal Red Sox series, they looked flat against one of the worst team in the league Baltimore Orioles. I have to say the fat lady is now practicing singing and pretty soon she'll be on the stage. The Blue Jays are just about done as a roasted turkey. They just gave JP Ricciardi another year by hoping hot before the Red Sox series and now we will stuck with his brutal and bad managerial decisions.

JP should be get fired after this season. I don't even remember him making good managerial decisions.
BAD: #1. keeping Gibbons this season after last season's dismal record.
2. Signings and tradings for players supposedly will help the team. Frank Thomas, BJ Ryan, AJ Burnett(although AJ is starting to pick up but it will be too late coz he'll bolt next season) and others. Trading Ted Lilly for who???? I am sure other people here can add some more bad decision list.

[ShaolinFlame]

Originally Posted by OzSome

The Jays teased the fans again by going hot late in the season then when the game really counts (against the Red Sox), they choke. After the brutal Red Sox series, they looked flat against one of the worst team in the league Baltimore Orioles. I have to say the fat lady is now practicing singing and pretty soon she'll be on the stage. The Blue Jays are just about done as a roasted turkey. They just gave JP Ricciardi another year by hoping hot before the Red Sox series and now we will stuck with his brutal and bad managerial decisions.

JP should be get fired after this season. I don't even remember him making good managerial decisions.
BAD: #1. keeping Gibbons this season after last season's dismal record.
2. Signings and tradings for players supposedly will help the team. Frank Thomas, BJ Ryan, AJ Burnett(although AJ is starting to pick up but it will be too late coz he'll bolt next season) and others. Trading Ted Lilly for who???? I am sure other people here can add some more bad decision list.

As much as I hate JP, this is too much. Frank was good, but nobody wanted to pick up the 2 year option. Frank got less ABs so he acted like a baby and had to be released. AJ has been OK (especially considering other big name pitching contracts). And Ted Freaking Lilly? I would trade Ted Lilly for a sack of used baseballs. Remember the AL east is not the NL central.

If your gonna hate, how about the Mencherson experiment. Was that necessary? I mean BOTH??? Come on JP.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by ShaolinFlame

If your gonna hate, how about the Mencherson experiment. Was that necessary? I mean BOTH??? Come on JP.

Don't forget that they also had Shannon Stewart make the team over Reed Johnson and than cut Reed. They could have just went with Lind and Johnson from the start of the year, and I can't imagine they would have spent more than they ended up on Mench, Wilkerson, and Stewart. I'm not saying thats why the team struggled, but it was a bunch of moves that essentially accomplished nothing. Actually the only offseason move(s) that the Jays made that did anything were Scutaro being good depth, and I can't remember if they got Inglett in the offseason or the end of last year. Glaus for Rolen likley was a break even move at best given how Rolen has struggled offensively.

[Gozer]

[JP apologist]

Can't even remember him making a good decision?

For a team that is painfully lacking in pure offense (and has plenty of grit and effort) the move to keep Stewart over Reed was correct at the time. The career batting statistics clinched it - if we better offense elsewhere we could have kept Reed. Hindsight, it was the wrong move, but it wasn't a stupid move.

Thomas was a bad signing - but if he would have manned up and accepted a spot on the bench until he was playing well enough to deserve at-bats then we'd still have his bat to turn to (and even after leaving the team he didn't get enough plate appearances for his bonus year to kick in).

Mench and Wilkerson were byproducts of Stewart and Thomas, not moves that JP planned on making to improve the team. Shamefully, I kinda like Wilker.

Scutaro was an excellent signing (trade?) and Inglett and Carlson are two assets we gained without losing one. Getting a successful closer (Accardo) for a player that's not in the league anymore (Hillenbrand) and, frankly, not moving Lind or Snider in a short-term panic move (Manny) also gets a thumbs up from me.

Once again, this is a team that missed our best position player for half the year, our second baseman for most of the year, and it was JP's team that had easily the best picthing staff in the league after losing last year's closer (Accardo) and best middle reliver (Jannsen). The two big signings that fans hated of JPs (Ryan and Burnett) have turned into two very successful seasons from Ryan (1 lost to injury) and a pitcher that is expected to opt out because his contract is well below market value.

I think we remain a contender in the division next year, and with the Yankee/BoSox salaries plus the TB/BAL youth movement, I can't reasonably ask for or expect anymore.