40th Canadian Federal Election - Welcome to another Conservative Minority (whee!)

[peter12]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I'm predicting a Liberal/NDP coalition.

No matter what, it won't be a single party majority.

Not a chance.

[Stranger]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Thankfully, only about 9% of Canadians agree with your preferred choice.

The US would quickly become a fine place to live if the NDP ever got into power.

The second I heard the NDP was taking any form of power in Canada, my bags would be packed and I'd be on the next plane to the USA. Jack Layton said today he thinks he has a very good chance of becoming Prime Minister......and I laughed and laughed.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Just so we're clear.... you're saying it's okay to suck **** as long as you get something in exchange?


(Are we really having this conversation?)


As for my vote (if I get my ballot in time) I really don't know what I'll do. Historically I've voted Liberal, but I'm not going to lie: I'm not enthusiastic about a change in the government right now. I disagree with Harper on a lot of things, but he has been something that the Liberals haven't been for a while: competent. I've been grudgingly impressed.

A lot depends on who my candidates are, but one great thing about Canadian politics is that when a party screws up they get to sit in the penalty box for a while. For my money, the Liberals could stand to stay in the box for at least one more election cycle, so long as Harper is doing a decent job.

Well if anything I have seen is any indication you will have John Chan from the NDP and of course Jim Prentice from the CPC. Prentice will win that in a walk (if he ran Liberal I would give him a good shot at winning...not that he is Liberal, just commenting on his popularity). In other words, don't let the possible change of government hinging on your vote make you mind up for you!

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Slava

Well if anything I have seen is any indication you will have John Chan from the NDP and of course Jim Prentice from the CPC. Prentice will win that in a walk (if he ran Liberal I would give him a good shot at winning...not that he is Liberal, just commenting on his popularity). In other words, don't let the possible change of government hinging on your vote make you mind up for you!

Hah. Fair point. Mind you, I'm more or less used to that. I usually just shut my eyes and vote my conscience. I'm a sucker that way.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Hah. Fair point. Mind you, I'm more or less used to that. I usually just shut my eyes and vote my conscience. I'm a sucker that way.

hahaha...join the club!

[Azure]

Honestly, I would give the NDP a chance as the official opposition, if they weren't so opposed to the war in Afghanistan.

[Flames in 07]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Just so we're clear.... you're saying it's okay to suck **** as long as you get something in exchange?


(Are we really having this conversation?)


As for my vote (if I get my ballot in time) I really don't know what I'll do. Historically I've voted Liberal, but I'm not going to lie: I'm not enthusiastic about a change in the government right now. I disagree with Harper on a lot of things, but he has been something that the Liberals haven't been for a while: competent. I've been grudgingly impressed.

A lot depends on who my candidates are, but one great thing about Canadian politics is that when a party screws up they get to sit in the penalty box for a while. For my money, the Liberals could stand to stay in the box for at least one more election cycle, so long as Harper is doing a decent job.

Not at all, I'm a) sarcastically pointing out that his statement is false and b) pointing out the irony that he thinks we are wasting money somehow because of the US when in fact was are saving tons from not having to defend our sovereignty, because of the US.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

As for my vote (if I get my ballot in time) I really don't know what I'll do. Historically I've voted Liberal, but I'm not going to lie: I'm not enthusiastic about a change in the government right now. I disagree with Harper on a lot of things, but he has been something that the Liberals haven't been for a while: competent. I've been grudgingly impressed.

I don't mind Harper as a person. I think he comes by honestly and he has the best intentions. He also doesn't seem to be pushing a social agenda all that much.... although, that could change if he had a majority. If that did happen though, the party would quickly lose support anyway. Honestly, I like having minority governments. Liberal or Conservative, who cares... it at least makes them work and they have to consider what the voting public wants.

My only knock on Harper so far is that he comes off as a bit of a weiner.

I'll likely vote for the Greens again anyway. I'm tired of all 3 major parties. None of them speak to me for me anymore. I don't think any of them has a leader that doesn't seem like a desperate car salesperson.

[FFR]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I don't mind Harper as a person. I think he comes by honestly and he has the best intentions. He also doesn't seem to be pushing a social agenda all that much.... although, that could change if he had a majority. If that did happen though, the party would quickly lose support anyway. Honestly, I like having minority governments. Liberal or Conservative, who cares... it at least makes them work and they have to consider what the voting public wants.

My only knock on Harper so far is that he comes off as a bit of a weiner.

I'll likely vote for the Greens again anyway. I'm tired of all 3 major parties. None of them speak to me for me anymore. I don't think any of them has a leader that doesn't seem like a desperate car salesperson.

Out of curiousity...does the Green party "speak to you"? Or are you just voting for them out of spite for the other three parties?

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by FFR

Out of curiousity...does the Green party "speak to you"? Or are you just voting for them out of spite for the other three parties?

I suppose they do. I'm all for having "green" considerations in our policies. I like their views on sustainability - which is traditionally the cornerstone of classical conservatism - something that neo-conservatism seems to have forgotten.

I would never want the Green Party to run a province or the country, but I think it would be beneficial to have a couple of those people in Ottawa so they can have a stronger voice.

[burn_this_city]

Greens are a joke so long as Elizabeth May runs that party.

[driveway]

I'd really rather vote for any party that campaigned on a platform of changing the electoral system from first-past-the-post to proportional-representation.

I know that's unpopular here in middle-child-syndrome Alberta, but any system that's pretty much guaranteed to:

A) prevent majority governments
and
B) allow small fringe parties appropriate representation in parliament

is okay by me.

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I'm predicting a Liberal/NDP coalition.

No matter what, it won't be a single party majority.

While in theory, these two parties are the most ideologically similar, in practice, it is a completely different matter. The NDP tends to be a home for those too left to be liberals, anti-corporate types, or are very unionist in their thinking. The Liberals are a massive catch-all of all things centrist to centre-left, as well as being nationalistic, opportunistic, and are historically catholic (which often presents itself). While there are many Liberal lefties, there are lots of neo-libs and catholic neo-cons in their ranks too. As a majority, they get on fine with rigid party solidarity and the ability to wield unchecked power on policy, but if their government's survival meant voting on a far left NDP platform, you can bet they wouldn't go for it, as in many ridings, it could make them unelectable.

This unholy marriage would end the moment something as routine as the Liberals wanting to "even the playing field" for a wounded, non-union, Canadian private sector occurs. Be it through competitive corporate tax, loopholes, subsidies or incentives. NDP are very anti-corporate welfare, while the Liberals see purpose in it.

I highly doubt a majority government too. I think the CPC will get closer though... snapping up a couple more Quebec seats, and maybe a shocker or two in Vancouver, Toronto or Montreal. The rest will be left and centre-left seats swapping hands in said major centres, as well as the BQ continuing to lose relevancy and seats.

[MarchHare]

I think the CPC will get closer though... snapping up a couple more Quebec seats

I haven't seen any regional/provincial polls in the last week or so, but prior to that, support for the CPC was actually down in Quebec, with the Liberals now in second place behind the BQ.

The Conservatives will likely lose some seats in Atlantic Canada as well, but they may gain a few in Ontario. Outside of urban BC, there's very little room to pick up more ridings in Western Canada, since they already are dominant in this region. They will also almost certainly lose David Emerson's former seat in Vancouver.

In the end, I think we'll see a parliament that looks VERY much like the one we have now: a fairly weak Conservative minority with no party gaining or losing more than 10-15 seats. There's an outside chance for a small CPC majority or Liberal minority, but I wouldn't bet on either outcome (barring any huge gaffes or scandals during the campaign).

If we do see another parliament with almost the exact seat allocation as we have now, I wonder how much of a shake-up there will be amongst the party leaders. Will Dion receive pressure to step down, or will he get a pass because this was his first election? And what about Harper? The only thing keeping the Conservatives away from a majority at the moment is Harper himself. The CPC could easily have won a majority in the last election if they had a leader that wasn't part of the Reform party old guard. Much of the country will still view them as a Western-based party with socially conservative values so long as they're headed by former-Reform party members. Peter MacKay might be able to win a majority, but I'd really like to see someone like Danny Williams run for the CPC leadership. Given how much he's fueded with Harper, though, he may have burnt too many bridges to seek the federal party's leadership.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

I haven't seen any regional/provincial polls in the last week or so, but prior to that, support for the CPC was actually down in Quebec, with the Liberals now in second place behind the BQ.

The Conservatives will likely lose some seats in Atlantic Canada as well, but they may gain a few in Ontario. Outside of urban BC, there's very little room to pick up more ridings in Western Canada, since they already are dominant in this region. They will also almost certainly lose David Emerson's former seat in Vancouver.

In the end, I think we'll see a parliament that looks VERY much like the one we have now: a fairly weak Conservative minority with no party gaining or losing more than 10-15 seats. There's an outside chance for a small CPC majority or Liberal minority, but I wouldn't bet on either outcome (barring any huge gaffes or scandals during the campaign).

If we do see another parliament with almost the exact seat allocation as we have now, I wonder how much of a shake-up there will be amongst the party leaders. Will Dion receive pressure to step down, or will he get a pass because this was his first election? And what about Harper? The only thing keeping the Conservatives away from a majority at the moment is Harper himself. The CPC could easily have won a majority in the last election if they had a leader that wasn't part of the Reform party old guard. Much of the country will still view them as a Western-based party with socially conservative values so long as they're headed by former-Reform party members. Peter MacKay might be able to win a majority, but I'd really like to see someone like Danny Williams run for the CPC leadership. Given how much he's fueded with Harper, though, he may have burnt too many bridges to seek the federal party's leadership.

Let's assume that there is a CPC minority that is almost exactly like the government we have now. What does Dion do? Does he continue to abstain from voting on important bills, or does he vote for/against Harper?

[peter12]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Let's assume that there is a CPC minority that is almost exactly like the government we have now. What does Dion do? Does he continue to abstain from voting on important bills, or does he vote for/against Harper?

He won't be able to do a darn thing. He'll be turfed.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by peter12

He won't be able to do a darn thing. He'll be turfed.

Agreed... what does the new liberal leader do?

[peter12]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Agreed... what does the new liberal leader do?

That is going to be one crazy ride. Who is going to be the new leader? We get to see the remnants, Rae, Ignatieff, and Kennedy, fight it out all over again. Wow, the Liberal Party is so effed.

[evman150]

It's really too bad, if Ignatieff or Kennedy was chosen instead of Dion, (I think) we'd be talking Liberal majority.

I don't actually mind Dion. But I do realize he lacks any sort of appeal to pretty much everybody in the country.

[evman150]

Originally Posted by kevman

I don't know why but for some reason when ever someone brings up legalizing marijuana as an election issue I feel they immediately lose all credibility...

That was cool in High School to joke about but let's be serious there are a lot of other more pressing issues that face Canadians than a few pot smokers and their would be tax income.

Ya I don't know why you feel that way either. Because it's a very ignorant position.

The italicized part is a short term/long term fallacy by the way (a subset of the excluded middle/false dichotomy fallacy).