Hurricane Gustav now a category 4..could be 5 by landfall on Gulf coast

[RougeUnderoos]

Originally Posted by nik-

God I hope that it calms down, I seem to recall Katrina losing some strength just before it hit. Granted, this one would have to calm down quite a bit it seems.

At least this time if major centers get hit the response from the government should be a lot better. I'm sure they learned a lot of lessons from the scale of the disaster last time.

Now someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Katrina was a particularly ferocious hurricane. The real disaster was shabby New Orleans infrastructure (the levees broke) and simply awful planning and then an equally bad response.

I caught a few seconds of the mayor of NO last night (still the same guy) and the impression I got from him was "I sure hope that doesn't happen again". He didn't seem too confident.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by RougeUnderoos

Now someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Katrina was a particularly ferocious hurricane. The real disaster was shabby New Orleans infrastructure (the levees broke) and simply awful planning and then an equally bad response.

I caught a few seconds of the mayor of NO last night (still the same guy) and the impression I got from him was "I sure hope that doesn't happen again". He didn't seem too confident.

Katrina was a cat 5 at one point IIRC...but was a cat 3 when she made landfall.

As for the mayor and his confidence...he really shouldnt have a whole lot at this point. i watched a special last night on the US Weather channel and the fact is that although the levees have been reinforced, they are merely back to the same resistance as they were pre-Katrina. They are building these massive walls to make that better mind you, but they wont be finished for another 5 or 6 years as it is a massive undertaking.

The evacuation planning this time though is a bazillion times better than last. They are using public transit to pick up residents at bus stops and then they are dropped off at a spot downtown where they either get on a bus to Shreveport or on a train to Memphis. Also all of them are given these ID bracelets with a bar code on them that identify who they are and when they arrive at their destination they are scanned and confirmed to of arrived.

Hopefully this thing shifts a bit more east so NO only gets the West side (the weaker side) of the storm and not a direct hit....that and as it moves NE there are a whole lot of areas further inland that are in dire need of the rain, even if it is in flooding amounts.

We had the remnants of Fay last Tuesday and she dropped 5-6" in a matter of a day....and we are still in a critical drought stage.

[Montana Moe]

Katrina was a strong 2/weak 3 (depending on who you ask) when it hit the New Orleans area. It was a huge storm in size, bigger than Gustav. Gustav seems to be more intense, but it will weaken as it comes inland toward the LA coast.

Katrina, in my opinion was made worse than it had to because of years and years of near misses, leading to a false sense of security within the greater N.O. community. At least that's what i felt when I was living down there.

The storm surge is what did the levees, and eventually the city in. The wind/rain was no big deal.

One of the charitable causes I'm most passionate about is rebuilding of Louisiana's coastal wetlands, that is the hurricane barrier the City of New Orleans really needs.

[T@T]

ABC news just reported there is a 23-25 foot storm surge in southern Cuba right now

Hard to imagine a 2 1/2 story wall of water

[transplant99]

Katrinas history...

Hurricane Katrina was the costliest and one of the five deadliest hurricanes in the history of the United States.[3] It was the sixth-strongest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded and the third-strongest hurricane on record that made landfall in the United States.

Gustav has an eerily similar history/path so far..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurrica...ogical_history

[T@T]

Originally Posted by Montana Moe

Katrina was a strong 2/weak 3 (depending on who you ask) when it hit the New Orleans area. It was a huge storm in size, bigger than Gustav. Gustav seems to be more intense, but it will weaken as it comes inland toward the LA coast.

Katrina, in my opinion was made worse than it had to because of years and years of near misses, leading to a false sense of security within the greater N.O. community. At least that's what i felt when I was living down there.

The storm surge is what did the levees, and eventually the city in. The wind/rain was no big deal.

One of the charitable causes I'm most passionate about is rebuilding of Louisiana's coastal wetlands, that is the hurricane barrier the City of New Orleans really needs.

When Katrina entered the gulf it was barely a cat-1 and much smaller than Gustav, Katrina got huge in both area and intensity when it hit the deep hot part of the gulf. Gustav is aiming right for that area and should be at least a cat-3 when gets to suck up all that energy in the deep part.

As for the City of New Orleans, maybe they should just move it 30 miles north above sea-level if it gets hit this time.
Call me crazy but I would never live below sea-level in a hurricane area.

[Mccree]

When was he last cat 5 to hit the US? Rita??

This storm looks is crazy but what is more crazy is the reporters that will OUTSIDE reporting as the storm hits. Those people are crazy.

[Montana Moe]

Originally Posted by T@T

When Katrina entered the gulf it was barely a cat-1 and much smaller than Gustav, Katrina got huge in both area and intensity when it hit the deep hot part of the gulf. Gustav is aiming right for that area and should be at least a cat-3 when gets to suck up all that energy in the deep part.

As for the City of New Orleans, maybe they should just move it 30 miles north above sea-level if it gets hit this time.
Call me crazy but I would never live below sea-level in a hurricane area.

Gotcha, I guess I was trying to say Katrina was bigger when it made landfall than Gustav is now. Kind of camparing apples and oranges on my part. I am definitely watching this one with great interest, I know too many folks that still live down there. This is the last thing they need.

As for moving the city 30 miles north, I'd rather have them take that money and improve the levee system to state of the art technology, not just as good as they were before. New Orleans is a classic American city, and needs to be preserved.

And for chrissakes, rebuild the coastal wetlands!!!

[arsenal]

Originally Posted by Montana Moe

And for chrissakes, rebuild the coastal wetlands!!!

That's the biggest thing they need to do first. But it also the thing that will take the longest, and is the least visible. So it wont get the funding.

[Displaced Flames fan]

Originally Posted by RougeUnderoos

Now someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Katrina was a particularly ferocious hurricane. The real disaster was shabby New Orleans infrastructure (the levees broke) and simply awful planning and then an equally bad response.

I caught a few seconds of the mayor of NO last night (still the same guy) and the impression I got from him was "I sure hope that doesn't happen again". He didn't seem too confident.

Exactly right...and frankly, the mayor of Chocolate City....racist extraordinaire Ray Negin is once again spinning his wheels getting his city prepared and/or evacuated. Great leadership.

What the hell though, Bush is still in office I'm sure he can get away with blaming him again.

[Montana Moe]

FWIW, Gov. Jindal has done a good job so far. He declared a state of emergency early enough to get the National Guard to places that they will be needed. They're starting the contraflow out of town earlier than normal this time around as well.

[transplant99]

Yep....officials at all levels look much better prepared to deal with what unfotunately is looking like Katrina part 2.

The evacuation is moving along nicely as far as those who dont have their own transportation and things will really pick up starting at 4 AM Sunday as that's when all highways into NO become contraflow.

Mandatory evacuation orders will likely be issued at 8 AM tomorrow which gives the city a full day+ as well as what they have done so far to get everyone out.

We have signed up with the Red Cross here to take in a couple folks if it comes to that as it did 3 years ago....let's hope the levees hold though and NO stands strong past Tuesday.

[Dion]

Originally Posted by transplant99

We have signed up with the Red Cross here to take in a couple folks if it comes to that as it did 3 years ago....let's hope the levees hold though and NO stands strong past Tuesday.

Well done Tranny! You have my utmost respect

[transplant99]

Really is no big deal..and i hope i worded that correctly...we signed up last time, but our house was never required as there were very few willing to come this far North and into such a cold climate (for them anyhow) and most IIRC thought they would be getting back to NO sooner rather than later. We all know that didnt work out, but from what I gathered back then (a story about a year or so afterwards) is most that didnt return, ended up staying in Texas or Mississippi.

This time I hope no one needs to stay away any longer than a few days.

[Mccree]

Originally Posted by transplant99

We have signed up with the Red Cross here to take in a couple folks if it comes to that as it did 3 years ago....let's hope the levees hold though and NO stands strong past Tuesday.

That is awesome good stuff. Hopefully there are more of people like you.

[Dion]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Really is no big deal..and i hope i worded that correctly...we signed up last time, but our house was never required as there were very few willing to come this far North and into such a cold climate (for them anyhow) and most IIRC thought they would be getting back to NO sooner rather than later. We all know that didnt work out, but from what I gathered back then (a story about a year or so afterwards) is most that didnt return, ended up staying in Texas or Mississippi.

This time I hope no one needs to stay away any longer than a few days.

The fact you are reaching to help those in need is a big deal with me. I was amazed how people stood up and helped after Katrina. It restored my faith in humanity and that people do care for another.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Dion

The fact you are reaching to help those in need is a big deal with me. I was amazed how people stood up and helped after Katrina. It restored my faith in humanity and that people do care for another.

Well thanks.

I think what really did it for so many is when you actually meet the people. The whole world saw the damage and the suffering on television, but I was able to actually sit with 4 people who had escaped after the levees broke...about a week afterwards IIRC...and they knew then and there they had nothing to go back to except a pile of rubble and horrible memories. It put a face on the stuff on TV and was hard to fathom. I am certain most people would react the same way I and literally millions of others did....humanity is basically good, we just forget it sometimes.

[kremb]

This is pretty interesting discussion on the possible effect on energy infrastructure.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4468

Gustav could make gas a lot more expensive.

[Bagor]

The original projections of a potential category 5 still stand with Ray Nagin now saying it could be the storm of the century.

New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin has ordered the city emptied tomorrow in the face of "the storm of the century", warning anyone that stays behind that they are on their own.
"I am announcing today mandatory evacuation of New Orleans starting 8am Sunday (2300 Sunday AEST) on the West bank," Nagin said at a press conference. "We want everybody... we want 100 per cent evacuation. If you decide to stay, you are on your own."
"This is the mother of all storms," Nagin said. "This storm is so powerful and growing more powerful every day that I'm not sure we've seen anything like it."

http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/eva...121027591.html

2300 Hurricane centre update:

GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WHILE GUSTAV HAS WEAKEN DURING PASSAGE OVER CUBA...IT IS
FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE LIKELY AFTER THAT TIME...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A
MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/310239.shtml

Just heard on CNN that New Orleans could be looking at surges of 15-20ft.

Gotta feel for the people down there. Respect to you Transplant.

[Displaced Flames fan]

About 24 hours before landfall and Nagin finally orders mandatory evacuation of New Orleans. Meanwhile, municipalities from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Western border of Louisiana have been evacuating for two days. There's not enough time.