The Blue Jays Thread: 2008 Season - Page 50 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Sylvanfan · 08-13-2008, 11:05 AM

Raul Ibanez isn't going to really do a great deal to solve the Jays woes....he's another second tier type power hitter, but not that legitmate 900 OPS slugger that the team really needs. It would just be more money spent to get them to go from a 83-79 team to a 86-76 team type of thing that might finish 6th in the AL instead of 7th or 8th.

flambers · 08-13-2008, 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Raul Ibanez isn't going to really do a great deal to solve the Jays woes....he's another second tier type power hitter, but not that legitmate 900 OPS slugger that the team really needs. It would just be more money spent to get them to go from a 83-79 team to a 86-76 team type of thing that might finish 6th in the AL instead of 7th or 8th.

Jays need a guy who can fill the DH role that can produce.... If the Jays Pitchers can produce once again next season... A big RBI guy will help their woes...

Last time I checked Raul Ibanez had 18 HRs and 80 RBIs (OPS of .833)... remember the Jays team leader has 50 RBI....

This would definetely help the Jays....

Sylvanfan · 08-13-2008, 11:20 AM

Yeah, and he's hitting 3rd in the order on a last place team where he has Ichiro on base for like 38% of his at bats. Thats a pretty favorable situation to stack your RBI totals. The .833OPS is respectable, but really not a huge upgrade on what the team had received last year from Frank Thomas. That team had good pitching and still wasn't anywhere close to competing for a playoff spot.

Gozer · 08-13-2008, 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Raul Ibanez isn't going to really do a great deal to solve the Jays woes....he's another second tier type power hitter, but not that legitmate 900 OPS slugger that the team really needs. It would just be more money spent to get them to go from a 83-79 team to a 86-76 team type of thing that might finish 6th in the AL instead of 7th or 8th.

If Ibanez was the only upgrade to our lineup, I'd agree. But he can pair with Lind at DH/LF without breaking the bank.

I don't want to see a 4 year $20Mil ManRam to give us a one or two year window to win before ManRam/Wells/Doc would be half our payroll and we'd be giving away assets to shed salary.

flambers · 08-13-2008, 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Yeah, and he's hitting 3rd in the order on a last place team where he has Ichiro on base for like 38% of his at bats. Thats a pretty favorable situation to stack your RBI totals. The .833OPS is respectable, but really not a huge upgrade on what the team had received last year from Frank Thomas. That team had good pitching and still wasn't anywhere close to competing for a playoff spot.

True, they are 8 games back in the Wild Card race. Remember the Jays also have placed a high amount of runners on base, their problems this year was the low average with runners in scoring position.

They neeed a guy who hit the odd HR and drive in the runs. Guys like Stairs and Overbay have hit into way to many Double plays.

Guy like Wells was hurt for a huge part of the season.

JayP · 08-13-2008, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Yeah, and he's hitting 3rd in the order on a last place team where he has Ichiro on base for like 38% of his at bats. Thats a pretty favorable situation to stack your RBI totals. The .833OPS is respectable, but really not a huge upgrade on what the team had received last year from Frank Thomas. That team had good pitching and still wasn't anywhere close to competing for a playoff spot.

Exactly. RBI's don't mean a whole lot. They're simply a product of your position in the order.

Ibanez is not what this team needs. If Lind struggled this year then he'd be a solid pick-up, but our OF is full up right now and I doubt Ibanez wants to DH. We desperately need a big time .900+ OPS bat at clean-up.

JayP · 08-13-2008, 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flambers

True, they are 8 games back in the Wild Card race. Remember the Jays also have placed a high amount of runners on base, their problems this year was the low average with runners in scoring position.

The problem is power. Plain and simple. Stats like RISP average tend to even themselves out over time.

Having no power in the line-up means that the Jays need to get 3 hits an inning just to scratch home one run typically. For a good 3 run inning that gets bumped up to probably 5-6 hits. You watch the opposition and they can get those 3 run innings off of 3-4 hits. That's a huge difference.

Sylvanfan · 08-13-2008, 11:46 AM

^^^
I don't know the statistical stuff as well as some posters like yourself JayP...but I'd bet that a team with a low team slugging percentage likely is set up to hit with a low average with runners in scoring position than a team with a better slugging percentage. Just because of the idea that in order to get a run home...you needed two hits to get a guy in scoring position. The difference in team batting averages for a team hitting 250 and a team hitting 280 is like 1 hit per game. Well if you've burned up 2 hits to get a guy in scoring position....I'd think you decrease your odds of getting that third hit to bring him in.

JayP · 08-13-2008, 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

^^^
I don't know the statistical stuff as well as some posters like yourself JayP...but I'd bet that a team with a low team slugging percentage likely is set up to hit with a low average with runners in scoring position than a team with a better slugging percentage. Just because of the idea that in order to get a run home...you needed two hits to get a guy in scoring position. The difference in team batting averages for a team hitting 250 and a team hitting 280 is like 1 hit per game. Well if you've burned up 2 hits to get a guy in scoring position....I'd think you decrease your odds of getting that third hit to bring him in.

I don't know if it's statistically accurate (although it most likely is), but the logic makes perfect sense. The average amount of hits per inning is around 1. So when the Jays have already strung together two singles just to get that one man on second base they're already beating the odds. So to get that third hit those odds are obviously going to keep dropping.

Gozer · 08-13-2008, 03:14 PM

Ibanez, whom the Jays efforted to trade for at the deadline, has been claimed on waivers.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8446822/Sources:-M's-Washburn,-Ibanez-claimed-on-waivers?CMP=OTC-K9B140813162&ATT=49

Flickered Flame · 08-13-2008, 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gozer

Ibanez, whom the Jays efforted to trade for at the deadline, has been claimed on waivers.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8446822/Sources:-M's-Washburn,-Ibanez-claimed-on-waivers?CMP=OTC-K9B140813162&ATT=49

It wouldn't surprise me if it was the Rays that claimed Ibanez.

Gozer · 08-13-2008, 03:52 PM

The American League received first crack at the two Mariners, in the following order (omitting non-contenders):

Tigers
Rangers
Blue Jays
Yankees
Twins
White Sox
Red Sox
Rays
Angels

Sylvanfan · 08-13-2008, 04:36 PM

With 120 games played and being 8 games out of a playoff spot picking up Ibanez now wouldn't be a very wise use of money for the Blue Jays. Really he'd have to be the DH from this point on and I can't see him alone being the spark to get them past the 2-3 games over 500 mark thats plagued them for like 60 games now. Maybe if this is a month ago and Wells is done for the year...than yeah you have time and you need another outfielder.

JayP · 08-14-2008, 08:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

With 120 games played and being 8 games out of a playoff spot picking up Ibanez now wouldn't be a very wise use of money for the Blue Jays. Really he'd have to be the DH from this point on and I can't see him alone being the spark to get them past the 2-3 games over 500 mark thats plagued them for like 60 games now. Maybe if this is a month ago and Wells is done for the year...than yeah you have time and you need another outfielder.

The thing is that if a trade does happen and Ibanez does walk at the end of the year the compensation picks are quite good. It's still probably not worth it, but those picks factor into any mid-season trade featuring a UFA.

Gozer · 08-14-2008, 12:21 PM

Jays playing the Tigers right now, pitchers duel through 4.

Gozer · 08-14-2008, 12:22 PM

Just as I post that, Overbay goes yard on the 1st pitch of the 5th.

JayP · 08-14-2008, 01:20 PM

The Tigers best chance to strike is right now in the top of the 8th. The top of the order is due up and Litsch gives way to Carlson.

Let's hope they can hold on.

Gozer · 08-14-2008, 01:34 PM

D'oh!

JayP · 08-14-2008, 01:36 PM

And predictably Jason Frasor evaporates that lead.

Why do managers have to be clueless and refuse to use their closer before the 9th inning? Runner on 2nd, 2 outs, and a .870 OPS bat at the plate and the choice is to use an average reliever instead of the guy we're paying $12 million.

I really hope we trade BJ Ryan in the off-season. Not only because he's over-rated, but because the closer role is so ridiculously over hyped.

Gozer · 08-14-2008, 01:36 PM

Sigh.