Experts Puzzled Over Increase in Tornadoes

[Hemmer]

http://www.cleveland.com/news/plaind...130.xml&coll=2

Experts Puzzled Over Increase in Tornadoes
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Seth Borenstein

Associated Press

"Over the weekend, an extraordinarily powerful twister ripped apart Parkersburg, Iowa, destroying 288 homes in the town of about 1,000 residents, said Gov. Chet Culver. At least four people were killed there. Among the buildings destroyed were City Hall, the high school, and the lone grocery store and gas station. Some of those killed were in basements.
The numbers for the United States so far this year: at least 110 dead, 30 killer tornadoes and a preliminary count of 1,191 twisters (which, after duplicate sightings are removed, is likely to go down to around 800). The record for the most tornadoes in a year is 1,817 in 2004. In the past 10 years, the average number of tornadoes has been 1,254.
"Right now we're on track to break all previous counts through the end of the year," said warning meteorologist Greg Carbin at the Storm Prediction Center, also in Norman.
And it's not just more storms. The strongest of those storms -- those in the 136-to-200 mph range -- have been more prevalent than normal, and lately they seem to be hitting populated areas more, he said. At least 22 tornadoes this year have been in the top part of the new Enhanced Fujita scale, rating a 3 (for "severe") or a 4 ("devastating") on the 1-to-5 scale.
The twister that devastated Parkersburg was a 5 -- the first in the United States since a tornado nearly obliterated Greensburg, Kan., just over a year ago. The Parkersburg tornado was the strongest to hit Iowa in 32 years.
So far, more than 50 of the deaths this year have been in mobile homes, the wrong place to be during a tornado. They have been a factor in nearly half of all tornado fatalities in recent years.
And if that's not bad enough, computer models show that the conditions that make tornadoes ripe are going to stick around Tornado Alley for about another week, according to Brooks.
The nagging question is why.
Global warming cannot really explain what is happening, Carbin said. While higher temperatures could increase the number of thunderstorms, which are needed to trigger tornadoes, they also would tend to push the storm systems too far north to form some twisters, he said.
La Nina, the cooling of parts of the Central Pacific that is the flip side El Nino, was a factor in the increased activity earlier this year -- especially in February, a record month for tornado activity -- but it can't explain what is happening now, according to Carbin.
Carbin explained the most recent tornadoes with just one word: "May." May is typically the busiest tornado month of the year."

Just yesterday, 4 teenagers were killed at a boy scouts camp in Iowa by a deadly twister. And in the Capital region, theres already been 2 tornado warnings/watches already this past week.

Just an abnormal year or sign of things to come?

[photon]

Probably because there's more trailer parks now due to the mortgage crisis.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by photon

Probably because there's more trailer parks now due to the mortgage crisis.

Back when I was 10, I witnessed one of those Iowa twisters. It was the most menacing thing I've ever seen.

[Tilley]

We just had a tornado hit a mile from our apartment last Saturday and more tornados last night.

The biggest concern is the lack of a warning. The Saturday night tornado the Mrs. and I woke to the rain pounding the windows at 2:30 am. Turned on the t.v. and there was coverage on one channel telling us about the storm. We went to the ground floor and hung out in a hallway for 30 minutes. The sirens didn't start until after the tornado had passed by. Multiple homes suffered significant damage and couldn't attempt to temporarily cover the exposed home as the wind and hail made it dangerous to get on the roof. The resulting water damage after the roof was torn off is in some cases thought to be worse than damage to the roof itself.

Last night was much more serious as the Little Sioux camp where four boy scouts died last night is less than an hour from Omaha. Spent the evening in the in-law's basement. Damage is still being assessed although the camp is obviously getting the majority of the coverage.

[Hemmer]

With the increase in tornadoes in the Canadian prairies in recent years, my only worry is that over time we don't become something like 'tornado alley' in the States.

[mykalberta]

Global warming is the cause - it must be.

[Calgaryborn]

Originally Posted by mykalberta

Global warming is the cause - it must be.

Yes! Yes! It must be global warming. Somehow we must fix this man made problem. I know lets raise taxes! That's sure to make everything better!!!

[dobbles]

its just bad luck... remember 2 years ago when everyone was wondering why so many hurricanes were forming and hitting the southeast u.s.??? then we had a couple totally quiet seasons, and everyone forgot about them. now tornadoes are having a good year, and everyone freaks out.

when you live in the midwest, you just get used to it. its like people in cali complaining about earthquakes, or people on flood plain complaining about floods. if you don't like it, move.

on a side note, last summer the building next to our house got blown apart by what was concluded was a microburst. blew debris all through our house. we have a ceiling tile from that building fly through our window and land on the far side of our house. the entire roof structure flipped into our yard, hit our tree and it all feel in our back yard. total mess.

[Displaced Flames fan]

Originally Posted by Hemmer

With the increase in tornadoes in the Canadian prairies in recent years, my only worry is that over time we don't become something like 'tornado alley' in the States.

Are you sure there's been a definable increase in the Canadian prairies?

[Tyler]

Didn't An Inconvenient Truth postulate that global warming would increase the number of tornadoes per year? Or was that just storms in general?

[Locke]

Perhaps the yearly tornado average is indexed to food and fuel prices.

[Vulcan]

I'm surprised no one has suggested the karma philosophy yet.
The possibilities are endless, depending on your political or religious views.

[Hack&Lube]

[Displaced Flames fan]

We had one touch down about 8 miles SE of us about an hour ago. Rain wrapped, but there has been a distinct hook echo on radar for the entire hour though there haven't been any damage reports or further trained spotter sightings.

Last night was pretty bad about 90 miles north of us.

[MelBridgeman]

Originally Posted by Tyler

Didn't An Inconvenient Truth postulate that global warming would increase the number of tornadoes per year? Or was that just storms in general?

The new BIble.


How can experts be Puzzled!

[chris lindberg]

I heard on the news yesterday that a record was broken...there were 30 tornadoes in 30 days, Wow!

[Traditional_Ale]

Originally Posted by Hack&Lube

Absolutely priceless...

[sadora]

Originally Posted by mykalberta

Global warming is the cause - it must be.

Don't blame Global Warming, blame Al Gore for being a smartass who made a documentary about it.

[HOZ]

Problem about Tornados is that you need warm AND COLD air!

[HOZ]

I say blame the Chinese!

China has now clearly overtaken the United States as the world's leading emitter of climate-warming gases, a new study has found. The increasing emissions from China - up 8 percent in the past year - accounted for two-thirds of the growth in global greenhouse gas emissions in 2007, the study found.